placestats

Liberal democracy vs. Secondary enrollment

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 160 countries, Liberal democracy and Secondary enrollment rise and fall together at r = +0.57 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.31, which could easily be chance (q = 0.16, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of liberal democracy, 0.132 to 0.624 points, secondary enrollment is better by 30.2% gross at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 11.4% gross.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.570p = 3.7e-15 · 160 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.309p = 7.5e-5 · likely range [+0.16, +0.44]
p, allowing for regions0.039standard error 0.117 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.157across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Liberal democracy · index (0-1)link with income +0.52 · moderate
Secondary enrollment · % grosslink with income +0.71 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Liberal democracy · index (0-1) →Secondary enrollment · % gross →0.0150.8843.35%143%Afghanistan: 0.018 index (0-1), 59.6% grossAngola: 0.163 index (0-1), 51.5% grossAlbania: 0.382 index (0-1), 108% grossUnited Arab Emirates: 0.077 index (0-1), 102% grossArgentina: 0.524 index (0-1), 106% grossArmenia: 0.371 index (0-1), 90.9% grossAustralia: 0.793 index (0-1), 132% grossAustria: 0.757 index (0-1), 101% grossAzerbaijan: 0.053 index (0-1), 91.1% grossBurundi: 0.06 index (0-1), 23.1% grossBelgium: 0.794 index (0-1), 143% grossBenin: 0.323 index (0-1), 43.6% grossBurkina Faso: 0.103 index (0-1), 30% grossBangladesh: 0.116 index (0-1), 64.3% grossBulgaria: 0.499 index (0-1), 94.8% grossBahrain: 0.062 index (0-1), 98.8% grossBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.339 index (0-1), 87.9% grossBelarus: 0.038 index (0-1), 94.8% grossBolivia: 0.352 index (0-1), 90.5% grossBrazil: 0.704 index (0-1), 104% grossBarbados: 0.679 index (0-1), 104% grossBhutan: 0.457 index (0-1), 86.2% grossBotswana: 0.52 index (0-1), 70.6% grossCentral African Republic: 0.102 index (0-1), 15.8% grossCanada: 0.736 index (0-1), 104% grossSwitzerland: 0.843 index (0-1), 101% grossChile: 0.781 index (0-1), 106% grossChina: 0.039 index (0-1), 92.3% grossCote d'Ivoire: 0.228 index (0-1), 65.3% grossCameroon: 0.114 index (0-1), 44.8% grossCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.115 index (0-1), 55.5% grossCongo, Rep.: 0.115 index (0-1), 50.5% grossColombia: 0.555 index (0-1), 102% grossComoros: 0.132 index (0-1), 54.8% grossCabo Verde: 0.631 index (0-1), 96.4% grossCosta Rica: 0.809 index (0-1), 122% grossCyprus: 0.664 index (0-1), 107% grossCzechia: 0.794 index (0-1), 97.6% grossGermany: 0.782 index (0-1), 100% grossDenmark: 0.884 index (0-1), 126% grossDominican Republic: 0.505 index (0-1), 76.4% grossAlgeria: 0.126 index (0-1), 105% grossEcuador: 0.386 index (0-1), 92.8% grossEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.115 index (0-1), 84.8% grossSpain: 0.741 index (0-1), 119% grossEstonia: 0.837 index (0-1), 109% grossEthiopia: 0.1 index (0-1), 33.9% grossFinland: 0.808 index (0-1), 142% grossFiji: 0.398 index (0-1), 98.1% grossFrance: 0.8 index (0-1), 104% grossGabon: 0.178 index (0-1), 70.3% grossUnited Kingdom: 0.689 index (0-1), 112% grossGeorgia: 0.275 index (0-1), 101% grossGhana: 0.606 index (0-1), 75.7% grossGuinea: 0.095 index (0-1), 38.6% grossGambia, The: 0.522 index (0-1), 107% grossGreece: 0.568 index (0-1), 105% grossGuatemala: 0.523 index (0-1), 49.6% grossGuyana: 0.328 index (0-1), 91.4% grossHong Kong SAR, China: 0.142 index (0-1), 107% grossHonduras: 0.38 index (0-1), 51.8% grossCroatia: 0.593 index (0-1), 105% grossHungary: 0.315 index (0-1), 107% grossIndonesia: 0.296 index (0-1), 97.2% grossIndia: 0.26 index (0-1), 79.6% grossIreland: 0.822 index (0-1), 131% grossIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.103 index (0-1), 85.1% grossIceland: 0.72 index (0-1), 109% grossIsrael: 0.588 index (0-1), 98.5% grossItaly: 0.642 index (0-1), 101% grossJamaica: 0.679 index (0-1), 84.5% grossJordan: 0.274 index (0-1), 91.8% grossJapan: 0.734 index (0-1), 102% grossKazakhstan: 0.131 index (0-1), 97.6% grossKenya: 0.446 index (0-1), 84.3% grossKyrgyz Republic: 0.178 index (0-1), 91.7% grossCambodia: 0.051 index (0-1), 58.8% grossKorea, Rep.: 0.739 index (0-1), 96.3% grossKuwait: 0.127 index (0-1), 95.4% grossLao PDR: 0.11 index (0-1), 50.5% grossLebanon: 0.267 index (0-1), 63.8% grossLiberia: 0.417 index (0-1), 37.7% grossSri Lanka: 0.613 index (0-1), 88% grossLesotho: 0.512 index (0-1), 59.4% grossLithuania: 0.712 index (0-1), 105% grossLuxembourg: 0.777 index (0-1), 109% grossLatvia: 0.751 index (0-1), 101% grossMorocco: 0.251 index (0-1), 90% grossMoldova: 0.449 index (0-1), 99.3% grossMadagascar: 0.187 index (0-1), 34.1% grossMaldives: 0.416 index (0-1), 79.4% grossMexico: 0.221 index (0-1), 103% grossNorth Macedonia: 0.374 index (0-1), 90.1% grossMali: 0.15 index (0-1), 38.9% grossMalta: 0.621 index (0-1), 103% grossMyanmar: 0.015 index (0-1), 77% grossMontenegro: 0.5 index (0-1), 93.9% grossMongolia: 0.424 index (0-1), 96.8% grossMozambique: 0.175 index (0-1), 37.2% grossMauritania: 0.127 index (0-1), 36% grossMauritius: 0.639 index (0-1), 90.7% grossMalawi: 0.462 index (0-1), 36.6% grossMalaysia: 0.355 index (0-1), 80.3% grossNamibia: 0.519 index (0-1), 82% grossNiger: 0.177 index (0-1), 19.9% grossNigeria: 0.311 index (0-1), 46.9% grossNicaragua: 0.019 index (0-1), 70.2% grossNetherlands: 0.774 index (0-1), 138% grossNorway: 0.847 index (0-1), 116% grossNepal: 0.505 index (0-1), 90.4% grossNew Zealand: 0.787 index (0-1), 114% grossOman: 0.14 index (0-1), 95.1% grossPakistan: 0.176 index (0-1), 48.3% grossPanama: 0.575 index (0-1), 76.6% grossPeru: 0.506 index (0-1), 108% grossPhilippines: 0.291 index (0-1), 85.3% grossPapua New Guinea: 0.384 index (0-1), 52.1% grossPoland: 0.645 index (0-1), 108% grossPortugal: 0.717 index (0-1), 120% grossParaguay: 0.376 index (0-1), 79.1% grossQatar: 0.091 index (0-1), 99.6% grossRomania: 0.464 index (0-1), 81.6% grossRussian Federation: 0.056 index (0-1), 92.5% grossRwanda: 0.09 index (0-1), 48.8% grossSaudi Arabia: 0.047 index (0-1), 111% grossSudan: 0.034 index (0-1), 43.5% grossSenegal: 0.484 index (0-1), 44.1% grossSingapore: 0.36 index (0-1), 103% grossSolomon Islands: 0.539 index (0-1), 49% grossSierra Leone: 0.348 index (0-1), 86.9% grossEl Salvador: 0.09 index (0-1), 62.1% grossSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.128 index (0-1), 3.35% grossSerbia: 0.208 index (0-1), 89.8% grossSao Tome and Principe: 0.519 index (0-1), 90.4% grossSuriname: 0.626 index (0-1), 76.1% grossSlovak Republic: 0.573 index (0-1), 93.2% grossSlovenia: 0.589 index (0-1), 108% grossSweden: 0.853 index (0-1), 132% grossEswatini: 0.097 index (0-1), 82% grossSeychelles: 0.68 index (0-1), 70.8% grossSyrian Arab Republic: 0.054 index (0-1), 38.7% grossChad: 0.062 index (0-1), 23.5% grossTogo: 0.157 index (0-1), 63.4% grossThailand: 0.314 index (0-1), 92.1% grossTajikistan: 0.043 index (0-1), 86.9% grossTurkmenistan: 0.034 index (0-1), 94.6% grossTimor-Leste: 0.549 index (0-1), 84.7% grossTrinidad and Tobago: 0.668 index (0-1), 95.7% grossTunisia: 0.265 index (0-1), 90.3% grossTurkiye: 0.11 index (0-1), 118% grossTanzania: 0.297 index (0-1), 28.2% grossUkraine: 0.24 index (0-1), 86.2% grossUruguay: 0.79 index (0-1), 119% grossUnited States: 0.571 index (0-1), 97.5% grossUzbekistan: 0.079 index (0-1), 98.1% grossViet Nam: 0.102 index (0-1), 93.4% grossVanuatu: 0.623 index (0-1), 135% grossSouth Africa: 0.633 index (0-1), 104% grossZambia: 0.375 index (0-1), 56.8% grossZimbabwe: 0.147 index (0-1), 52.4% grossAREBDIBELCAFFINMWISAUSLBSOMSWETUR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5703.7e-15160
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5703.7e-15160
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3097.5e-5160
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3155.4e-5160

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 160 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.261 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.280 (without VUT) to +0.324 (without TUR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: VUT (-0.029).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific21+0.43
Europe & Central Asia48+0.29
Latin America & Caribbean22+0.40
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan18+0.10
Sub-Saharan Africa43+0.50

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third54+0.48
Middle third53+0.13
Richest third53+0.42

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians96+0.40
Muslims43+0.23

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.07
Never a European colony21-0.16
Spain18+0.18
United Kingdom46+0.36

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.313 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 36years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.049, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose liberal democracy moved did not tend to see their secondary enrollment move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.309for comparison
Within countries+0.157each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.049q = 0.569 · 165 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.003q = 0.961
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,755 country-years (one country in one year), 165 countries, 1990–2025, about 23 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 8% for Liberal democracy, 13% for Secondary enrollment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Secondary enrollment trails Liberal democracy →lag -10: r = -0.065 (n = 2,673)lag -9: r = -0.044 (n = 2,799)lag -8: r = -0.029 (n = 2,934)lag -7: r = -0.015 (n = 3,053)lag -6: r = -0.003 (n = 3,174)lag -5: r = 0.007 (n = 3,298)lag -4: r = 0.031 (n = 3,423)lag -3: r = 0.029 (n = 3,540)lag -2: r = 0.037 (n = 3,664)lag -1: r = 0.044 (n = 3,748)lag +0: r = 0.049 (n = 3,755)lag +1: r = 0.057 (n = 3,677)lag +2: r = 0.077 (n = 3,598)lag +3: r = 0.094 (n = 3,517)lag +4: r = 0.101 (n = 3,442)lag +5: r = 0.085 (n = 3,359)lag +6: r = 0.077 (n = 3,293)lag +7: r = 0.076 (n = 3,225)lag +8: r = 0.070 (n = 3,173)lag +9: r = 0.082 (n = 3,117)lag +10: r = 0.094 (n = 3,023)

Same year (lag 0): +0.049. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (+0.10 at lag +4) is higher than the same-year one by 0.05. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


index (0-1)
% gross		Years
Denmark DNK0.884126%2025, 2024
Sweden SWE0.853132%2025, 2024
Norway NOR0.847116%2025, 2024
Switzerland CHE0.843101%2025, 2024
Estonia EST0.837109%2025, 2024
Ireland IRL0.822131%2025, 2022
Costa Rica CRI0.809122%2025, 2024
Finland FIN0.808142%2025, 2024
France FRA0.8104%2025, 2024
Czechia CZE0.79497.6%2025, 2023
Belgium BEL0.794143%2025, 2023
Australia AUS0.793132%2025, 2024
Uruguay URY0.79119%2025, 2023
New Zealand NZL0.787114%2025, 2024
Germany DEU0.782100%2025, 2024

Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Liberal democracy

Liberal democracy index

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Electoral democracy plus limits on the head of government, independent courts and protected personal freedoms. It contains the electoral democracy index as a part, so the two are built from the same numbers and bound to match.

Secondary enrollment

School enrollment, secondary (% gross)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Liberal democracy and Secondary enrollment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Liberal democracy changes Secondary enrollment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Liberal democracy or Secondary enrollment