placestats

Liberal democracy vs. Muslim share

Fades after adjusting for income

A country is not a person. Countries where more people are counted as belonging to this group also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does not follow that the people in the group are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. It is the most common misuse of this kind of data. Religion also varies strongly with region, history and national income, so much of what looks religious here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures are for. The religion shares are estimates for two years only, and the survey questions are asked in rounds that can be ten years apart.

Across 168 countries, Liberal democracy and Muslim share rise and fall together at r = -0.51 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = -0.46, which could easily be chance (q = 0.084, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike).

Comparing countries across the middle half of muslim share, 0.338% to 64.9% of population, liberal democracy is worse by 0.223 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.178 points.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.510p = 1.6e-12 · 168 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.465p = 2.5e-10 · likely range [-0.58, -0.34]
p, allowing for regions0.031standard error 0.166 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.084across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Liberal democracy · index (0-1)link with income +0.52 · moderate
Muslim share · % of populationlink with income -0.14 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Liberal democracy · index (0-1) →Muslim share · % of population →0.0150.8840.00186%99.9%Afghanistan: 0.018 index (0-1), 99.9% of populationAngola: 0.163 index (0-1), 0.256% of populationAlbania: 0.382 index (0-1), 74.5% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 0.077 index (0-1), 72.9% of populationArgentina: 0.524 index (0-1), 0.929% of populationArmenia: 0.371 index (0-1), 0.267% of populationAustralia: 0.793 index (0-1), 3.5% of populationAustria: 0.757 index (0-1), 8.3% of populationAzerbaijan: 0.053 index (0-1), 94.7% of populationBurundi: 0.06 index (0-1), 2.99% of populationBelgium: 0.794 index (0-1), 6.81% of populationBenin: 0.323 index (0-1), 31.4% of populationBurkina Faso: 0.103 index (0-1), 67.4% of populationBangladesh: 0.116 index (0-1), 91.1% of populationBulgaria: 0.499 index (0-1), 10.3% of populationBahrain: 0.062 index (0-1), 74% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.339 index (0-1), 53.6% of populationBelarus: 0.038 index (0-1), 0.262% of populationBolivia: 0.352 index (0-1), 0.0098% of populationBrazil: 0.704 index (0-1), 0.0177% of populationBarbados: 0.679 index (0-1), 0.707% of populationBhutan: 0.457 index (0-1), 0.222% of populationBotswana: 0.52 index (0-1), 0.33% of populationCentral African Republic: 0.102 index (0-1), 6.24% of populationCanada: 0.736 index (0-1), 4.89% of populationSwitzerland: 0.843 index (0-1), 6.08% of populationChile: 0.781 index (0-1), 0.067% of populationChina: 0.039 index (0-1), 1.82% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 0.228 index (0-1), 46.3% of populationCameroon: 0.114 index (0-1), 25.2% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.115 index (0-1), 1.27% of populationCongo, Rep.: 0.115 index (0-1), 1.46% of populationColombia: 0.555 index (0-1), 0.00393% of populationComoros: 0.132 index (0-1), 98.3% of populationCabo Verde: 0.631 index (0-1), 0.313% of populationCosta Rica: 0.809 index (0-1), 0.0252% of populationCyprus: 0.664 index (0-1), 24.4% of populationCzechia: 0.794 index (0-1), 0.327% of populationGermany: 0.782 index (0-1), 6.55% of populationDjibouti: 0.118 index (0-1), 97.7% of populationDenmark: 0.884 index (0-1), 4.22% of populationDominican Republic: 0.505 index (0-1), 0.0248% of populationAlgeria: 0.126 index (0-1), 98.4% of populationEcuador: 0.386 index (0-1), 0.0181% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.115 index (0-1), 95.2% of populationSpain: 0.741 index (0-1), 3.58% of populationEstonia: 0.837 index (0-1), 0.598% of populationEthiopia: 0.1 index (0-1), 36.2% of populationFinland: 0.808 index (0-1), 1.61% of populationFiji: 0.398 index (0-1), 5.78% of populationFrance: 0.8 index (0-1), 9.1% of populationGabon: 0.178 index (0-1), 8.64% of populationUnited Kingdom: 0.689 index (0-1), 6.37% of populationGeorgia: 0.275 index (0-1), 10.5% of populationGhana: 0.606 index (0-1), 19.9% of populationGuinea: 0.095 index (0-1), 86.8% of populationGambia, The: 0.522 index (0-1), 97% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 0.095 index (0-1), 56% of populationEquatorial Guinea: 0.047 index (0-1), 4.05% of populationGreece: 0.568 index (0-1), 5.12% of populationGuatemala: 0.523 index (0-1), 0.00271% of populationGuyana: 0.328 index (0-1), 6.5% of populationHong Kong SAR, China: 0.142 index (0-1), 0.268% of populationHonduras: 0.38 index (0-1), 0.00277% of populationCroatia: 0.593 index (0-1), 1.37% of populationHaiti: 0.098 index (0-1), 0.00186% of populationHungary: 0.315 index (0-1), 0.139% of populationIndonesia: 0.296 index (0-1), 87% of populationIndia: 0.26 index (0-1), 15.2% of populationIreland: 0.822 index (0-1), 1.69% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.103 index (0-1), 99.8% of populationIraq: 0.22 index (0-1), 99.5% of populationIceland: 0.72 index (0-1), 1.21% of populationIsrael: 0.588 index (0-1), 14.7% of populationItaly: 0.642 index (0-1), 4.42% of populationJamaica: 0.679 index (0-1), 0.016% of populationJordan: 0.274 index (0-1), 97.1% of populationJapan: 0.734 index (0-1), 0.17% of populationKazakhstan: 0.131 index (0-1), 77.9% of populationKenya: 0.446 index (0-1), 10.9% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 0.178 index (0-1), 91.7% of populationCambodia: 0.051 index (0-1), 2.04% of populationKorea, Rep.: 0.739 index (0-1), 0.31% of populationKuwait: 0.127 index (0-1), 80.2% of populationLao PDR: 0.11 index (0-1), 0.0222% of populationLebanon: 0.267 index (0-1), 67.8% of populationLiberia: 0.417 index (0-1), 12.7% of populationLibya: 0.098 index (0-1), 99% of populationSri Lanka: 0.613 index (0-1), 10.2% of populationLesotho: 0.512 index (0-1), 0.218% of populationLithuania: 0.712 index (0-1), 0.0892% of populationLuxembourg: 0.777 index (0-1), 1.83% of populationLatvia: 0.751 index (0-1), 0.67% of populationMorocco: 0.251 index (0-1), 99.7% of populationMoldova: 0.449 index (0-1), 0.181% of populationMadagascar: 0.187 index (0-1), 1.16% of populationMaldives: 0.416 index (0-1), 94.1% of populationMexico: 0.221 index (0-1), 0.00629% of populationNorth Macedonia: 0.374 index (0-1), 34.7% of populationMali: 0.15 index (0-1), 94.1% of populationMalta: 0.621 index (0-1), 3.64% of populationMyanmar: 0.015 index (0-1), 3.35% of populationMontenegro: 0.5 index (0-1), 21.3% of populationMongolia: 0.424 index (0-1), 3.53% of populationMozambique: 0.175 index (0-1), 19.4% of populationMauritania: 0.127 index (0-1), 99.2% of populationMauritius: 0.639 index (0-1), 17.5% of populationMalawi: 0.462 index (0-1), 11.6% of populationMalaysia: 0.355 index (0-1), 64.1% of populationNamibia: 0.519 index (0-1), 0.119% of populationNiger: 0.177 index (0-1), 98.1% of populationNigeria: 0.311 index (0-1), 56.1% of populationNicaragua: 0.019 index (0-1), 0.00459% of populationNetherlands: 0.774 index (0-1), 5.5% of populationNorway: 0.847 index (0-1), 4.11% of populationNepal: 0.505 index (0-1), 5.08% of populationNew Zealand: 0.787 index (0-1), 1.36% of populationOman: 0.14 index (0-1), 81.8% of populationPakistan: 0.176 index (0-1), 96.5% of populationPanama: 0.575 index (0-1), 0.0531% of populationPeru: 0.506 index (0-1), 0.0216% of populationPhilippines: 0.291 index (0-1), 6.46% of populationPapua New Guinea: 0.384 index (0-1), 0.0748% of populationPoland: 0.645 index (0-1), 0.00732% of populationPortugal: 0.717 index (0-1), 0.409% of populationParaguay: 0.376 index (0-1), 0.0113% of populationQatar: 0.091 index (0-1), 75.9% of populationRomania: 0.464 index (0-1), 0.356% of populationRussian Federation: 0.056 index (0-1), 8.19% of populationRwanda: 0.09 index (0-1), 1.81% of populationSaudi Arabia: 0.047 index (0-1), 92.7% of populationSudan: 0.034 index (0-1), 98.9% of populationSenegal: 0.484 index (0-1), 97.6% of populationSingapore: 0.36 index (0-1), 16.1% of populationSolomon Islands: 0.539 index (0-1), 0.34% of populationSierra Leone: 0.348 index (0-1), 80.1% of populationEl Salvador: 0.09 index (0-1), 0.0035% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.128 index (0-1), 99.8% of populationSerbia: 0.208 index (0-1), 4.42% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 0.519 index (0-1), 0.0915% of populationSuriname: 0.626 index (0-1), 13.1% of populationSlovak Republic: 0.573 index (0-1), 0.0548% of populationSlovenia: 0.589 index (0-1), 1.61% of populationSweden: 0.853 index (0-1), 8.1% of populationEswatini: 0.097 index (0-1), 0.136% of populationSeychelles: 0.68 index (0-1), 0.893% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 0.054 index (0-1), 94.2% of populationChad: 0.062 index (0-1), 56.4% of populationTogo: 0.157 index (0-1), 16.1% of populationThailand: 0.314 index (0-1), 4.51% of populationTajikistan: 0.043 index (0-1), 98.9% of populationTurkmenistan: 0.034 index (0-1), 94.3% of populationTimor-Leste: 0.549 index (0-1), 0.257% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 0.668 index (0-1), 5.46% of populationTunisia: 0.265 index (0-1), 99.3% of populationTurkiye: 0.11 index (0-1), 97.1% of populationTanzania: 0.297 index (0-1), 29.9% of populationUganda: 0.165 index (0-1), 11.4% of populationUkraine: 0.24 index (0-1), 0.568% of populationUruguay: 0.79 index (0-1), 0.0893% of populationUnited States: 0.571 index (0-1), 1.19% of populationUzbekistan: 0.079 index (0-1), 95.6% of populationViet Nam: 0.102 index (0-1), 0.0721% of populationVanuatu: 0.623 index (0-1), 0.0193% of populationKosovo: 0.457 index (0-1), 94.3% of populationSouth Africa: 0.633 index (0-1), 1.6% of populationZambia: 0.375 index (0-1), 0.511% of populationZimbabwe: 0.147 index (0-1), 0.529% of populationAFGBLRDNKESTGMBMMRNICNORSDNSENTJKXKX

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5101.6e-12168
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.3921.5e-7168
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.4652.5e-10168
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3621.6e-6168

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 168 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.045 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.485 (without GMB) to -0.450 (without SAU). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GMB (-0.020).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific21-0.13
Europe & Central Asia49-0.31
Latin America & Caribbean23-0.04
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan21-0.82
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.13

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third56-0.28
Middle third56-0.41
Richest third56-0.77

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians99-0.07
Muslims48-0.12

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.22
Never a European colony21-0.76
Spain19+0.01
United Kingdom49-0.59

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.465 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


index (0-1)
% of population		Years
Denmark DNK0.8844.22%2025, 2020
Sweden SWE0.8538.1%2025, 2020
Norway NOR0.8474.11%2025, 2020
Switzerland CHE0.8436.08%2025, 2020
Estonia EST0.8370.598%2025, 2020
Ireland IRL0.8221.69%2025, 2020
Costa Rica CRI0.8090.0252%2025, 2020
Finland FIN0.8081.61%2025, 2020
France FRA0.89.1%2025, 2020
Czechia CZE0.7940.327%2025, 2020
Belgium BEL0.7946.81%2025, 2020
Australia AUS0.7933.5%2025, 2020
Uruguay URY0.790.0893%2025, 2020
New Zealand NZL0.7871.36%2025, 2020
Germany DEU0.7826.55%2025, 2020

Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project
Pew Research Center, Religious Composition by Country, 2010-2020. Pew Research Center bears no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations of the data presented here.
One of these measures is published under a licence that forbids changes. Values are shown exactly as published and must not be republished in a changed or rescaled form.

Sources

Liberal democracy

Liberal democracy index

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Electoral democracy plus limits on the head of government, independent courts and protected personal freedoms. It contains the electoral democracy index as a part, so the two are built from the same numbers and bound to match.

Muslim share

Share of the population identifying as Muslim

Pew Research Center · via Our World in Data · Pew Research Center terms of use, excerpts with attribution · updated decennial · comparable from 2010 only

The second largest religion. The three religion shares are parts of one total. So for any pair of them, more of one means less of the others. They are built from the same numbers, so they are bound to match, and the site flags this. Hindu, Buddhist, folk and other religions are not included, so that what is taken from Pew's dataset stays a small excerpt of it. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2020–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Liberal democracy and Muslim share

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Liberal democracy changes Muslim share, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Liberal democracy or Muslim share