placestats

Civil liberties (FH) vs. Muslim share

Fades after adjusting for income

A country is not a person. Countries where more people are counted as belonging to this group also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does not follow that the people in the group are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. It is the most common misuse of this kind of data. Religion also varies strongly with region, history and national income, so much of what looks religious here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures are for. The religion shares are estimates for two years only, and the survey questions are asked in rounds that can be ten years apart.

Across 179 countries, Civil liberties (FH) and Muslim share rise and fall together at r = +0.57 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = +0.54, which could easily be chance (q = 0.093, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike).

Comparing countries across the middle half of civil liberties (fh), 2 to 5 points, muslim share is 34% of population higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 35.9% of population.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.565p = 1.7e-16 · 179 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.539p = 8.1e-15 · likely range [+0.43, +0.64]
p, allowing for regions0.016standard error 0.162 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.093across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Civil liberties (FH) · rating (1-7, 1 = most free)link with income -0.49 · moderate
Muslim share · % of populationlink with income -0.14 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Civil liberties (FH) · rating (1-7, 1 = most free) →Muslim share · % of population →170.00186%99.9%Afghanistan: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 99.9% of populationAngola: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.256% of populationAlbania: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 74.5% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 72.9% of populationArgentina: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.929% of populationArmenia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.267% of populationAustralia: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.5% of populationAustria: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 8.3% of populationAzerbaijan: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 94.7% of populationBurundi: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 2.99% of populationBelgium: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.81% of populationBenin: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 31.4% of populationBurkina Faso: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 67.4% of populationBangladesh: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 91.1% of populationBulgaria: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 10.3% of populationBahrain: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 74% of populationBahamas, The: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0858% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 53.6% of populationBelarus: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.262% of populationBelize: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.18% of populationBolivia: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0098% of populationBrazil: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0177% of populationBarbados: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.707% of populationBrunei Darussalam: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 82.2% of populationBhutan: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.222% of populationBotswana: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.33% of populationCentral African Republic: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.24% of populationCanada: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.89% of populationSwitzerland: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.08% of populationChile: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.067% of populationChina: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.82% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 46.3% of populationCameroon: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 25.2% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.27% of populationCongo, Rep.: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.46% of populationColombia: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.00393% of populationComoros: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 98.3% of populationCabo Verde: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.313% of populationCosta Rica: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0252% of populationCyprus: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 24.4% of populationCzechia: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.327% of populationGermany: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.55% of populationDjibouti: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 97.7% of populationDenmark: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.22% of populationDominican Republic: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0248% of populationAlgeria: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 98.4% of populationEcuador: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0181% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 95.2% of populationSpain: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.58% of populationEstonia: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.598% of populationEthiopia: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 36.2% of populationFinland: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.61% of populationFiji: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.78% of populationFrance: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 9.1% of populationMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.00196% of populationGabon: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 8.64% of populationUnited Kingdom: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.37% of populationGeorgia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 10.5% of populationGhana: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 19.9% of populationGuinea: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 86.8% of populationGambia, The: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 97% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 56% of populationEquatorial Guinea: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.05% of populationGreece: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.12% of populationGrenada: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.395% of populationGuatemala: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.00271% of populationGuyana: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.5% of populationHong Kong SAR, China: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.268% of populationHonduras: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.00277% of populationCroatia: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.37% of populationHaiti: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.00186% of populationHungary: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.139% of populationIndonesia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 87% of populationIndia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 15.2% of populationIreland: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.69% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 99.8% of populationIraq: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 99.5% of populationIceland: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.21% of populationIsrael: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 14.7% of populationItaly: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.42% of populationJamaica: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.016% of populationJordan: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 97.1% of populationJapan: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.17% of populationKazakhstan: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 77.9% of populationKenya: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 10.9% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 91.7% of populationCambodia: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 2.04% of populationKiribati: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0854% of populationKorea, Rep.: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.31% of populationKuwait: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 80.2% of populationLao PDR: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0222% of populationLebanon: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 67.8% of populationLiberia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 12.7% of populationLibya: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 99% of populationSt. Lucia: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0949% of populationSri Lanka: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 10.2% of populationLesotho: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.218% of populationLithuania: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0892% of populationLuxembourg: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.83% of populationLatvia: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.67% of populationMorocco: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 99.7% of populationMoldova: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.181% of populationMadagascar: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.16% of populationMaldives: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 94.1% of populationMexico: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.00629% of populationNorth Macedonia: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 34.7% of populationMali: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 94.1% of populationMalta: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.64% of populationMyanmar: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.35% of populationMontenegro: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 21.3% of populationMongolia: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.53% of populationMozambique: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 19.4% of populationMauritania: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 99.2% of populationMauritius: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 17.5% of populationMalawi: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 11.6% of populationMalaysia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 64.1% of populationNamibia: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.119% of populationNiger: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 98.1% of populationNigeria: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 56.1% of populationNicaragua: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.00459% of populationNetherlands: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.5% of populationNorway: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.11% of populationNepal: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.08% of populationNew Zealand: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.36% of populationOman: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 81.8% of populationPakistan: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 96.5% of populationPanama: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0531% of populationPeru: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0216% of populationPhilippines: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.46% of populationPapua New Guinea: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0748% of populationPoland: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.00732% of populationPuerto Rico (US): 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.108% of populationPortugal: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.409% of populationParaguay: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0113% of populationQatar: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 75.9% of populationRomania: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.356% of populationRussian Federation: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 8.19% of populationRwanda: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.81% of populationSaudi Arabia: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 92.7% of populationSudan: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 98.9% of populationSenegal: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 97.6% of populationSingapore: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 16.1% of populationSolomon Islands: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.34% of populationSierra Leone: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 80.1% of populationEl Salvador: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0035% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 99.8% of populationSerbia: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.42% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0915% of populationSuriname: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 13.1% of populationSlovak Republic: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0548% of populationSlovenia: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.61% of populationSweden: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 8.1% of populationEswatini: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.136% of populationSeychelles: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.893% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 94.2% of populationChad: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 56.4% of populationTogo: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 16.1% of populationThailand: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.51% of populationTajikistan: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 98.9% of populationTurkmenistan: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 94.3% of populationTimor-Leste: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.257% of populationTonga: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0605% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.46% of populationTunisia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 99.3% of populationTurkiye: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 97.1% of populationTanzania: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 29.9% of populationUganda: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 11.4% of populationUkraine: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.568% of populationUruguay: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0893% of populationUnited States: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.19% of populationUzbekistan: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 95.6% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.107% of populationViet Nam: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0721% of populationVanuatu: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0193% of populationSamoa: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.0253% of populationKosovo: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 94.3% of populationSouth Africa: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.6% of populationZambia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.511% of populationZimbabwe: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 0.529% of populationAFGBLRCRIFSMGNQIRNMMRSENSLESOMSVKTUN

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5651.7e-16179
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.4751.9e-11179
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.5398.1e-15179
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4791.3e-11179

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 179 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.026 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.527 (without SAU) to +0.557 (without BLR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BLR (+0.018).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific26+0.22
Europe & Central Asia49+0.47
Latin America & Caribbean29+0.04
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan21+0.77
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.13

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third60+0.35
Middle third59+0.57
Richest third60+0.77

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians109+0.15
Muslims49+0.40

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.25
Never a European colony21+0.77
Spain20+0.23
United Kingdom58+0.70

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.539 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


rating (1-7, 1 = most free)
% of population		Years
Turkmenistan TKM794.3%2025, 2020
Tajikistan TJK798.9%2025, 2020
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM799.8%2025, 2020
Sudan SDN798.9%2025, 2020
Myanmar MMR73.35%2025, 2020
Iran, Islamic Rep. IRN799.8%2025, 2020
Equatorial Guinea GNQ74.05%2025, 2020
Central African Republic CAF76.24%2025, 2020
Belarus BLR70.262%2025, 2020
Azerbaijan AZE794.7%2025, 2020
Afghanistan AFG799.9%2025, 2020
Viet Nam VNM60.0721%2025, 2020
Uzbekistan UZB695.6%2025, 2020
Turkiye TUR697.1%2025, 2020
Chad TCD656.4%2025, 2020

Freedom House, Freedom in the World
Pew Research Center, Religious Composition by Country, 2010-2020. Pew Research Center bears no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations of the data presented here.
One of these measures is published under a licence that forbids changes. Values are shown exactly as published and must not be republished in a changed or rescaled form.

Sources

Civil liberties (FH)

Civil liberties rating

Freedom House · via Our World in Data · Free to use with attribution · updated annual

Scored 1 to 7, where 1 is most free. Covers freedom of speech and belief, the right to form groups, the rule of law and personal freedom. The same expert review process produces the political rights rating, so the two are bound to match closely.

Muslim share

Share of the population identifying as Muslim

Pew Research Center · via Our World in Data · Pew Research Center terms of use, excerpts with attribution · updated decennial · comparable from 2010 only

The second largest religion. The three religion shares are parts of one total. So for any pair of them, more of one means less of the others. They are built from the same numbers, so they are bound to match, and the site flags this. Hindu, Buddhist, folk and other religions are not included, so that what is taken from Pew's dataset stays a small excerpt of it. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2015–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Civil liberties (FH) and Muslim share

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Civil liberties (FH) changes Muslim share, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Civil liberties (FH) or Muslim share