placestats

Informal employment vs. Pupil-teacher ratio

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 133 countries, Informal employment and Pupil-teacher ratio rise and fall together at r = +0.77 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.22, which could easily be chance (q = 0.14, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of informal employment, 14.2% to 83.9% of employment, pupil-teacher ratio is worse by 19.2 pupils per teacher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 6.9 pupils per teacher.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.766p = 6.9e-27 · 133 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.223p = 0.010 · likely range [+0.05, +0.38]
p, allowing for regions0.034standard error 0.077 · 6 regions
Check for luck (q)0.145across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Informal employment · % of employmentlink with income -0.88 · proxy
Pupil-teacher ratio · pupils per teacherlink with income -0.83 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Informal employment · % of employment →Pupil-teacher ratio · pupils per teacher →0.63%98.5%8.359.5Afghanistan: 86.1% of employment, 48.8 pupils per teacherAngola: 95.3% of employment, 50 pupils per teacherArmenia: 76.1% of employment, 15.4 pupils per teacherAntigua and Barbuda: 12.8% of employment, 12.4 pupils per teacherAustria: 1.32% of employment, 10 pupils per teacherBurundi: 98% of employment, 42.5 pupils per teacherBelgium: 1.37% of employment, 11.3 pupils per teacherBenin: 96.3% of employment, 39.2 pupils per teacherBurkina Faso: 93.8% of employment, 39.7 pupils per teacherBangladesh: 84% of employment, 30.1 pupils per teacherBulgaria: 1.2% of employment, 15.2 pupils per teacherBahamas, The: 18.3% of employment, 19.4 pupils per teacherBosnia and Herzegovina: 16.6% of employment, 16.9 pupils per teacherBolivia: 83.9% of employment, 17.8 pupils per teacherBrazil: 35.6% of employment, 20.2 pupils per teacherBarbados: 61.8% of employment, 14 pupils per teacherBrunei Darussalam: 21.4% of employment, 9.9 pupils per teacherBotswana: 75.6% of employment, 23.7 pupils per teacherSwitzerland: 1.48% of employment, 9.93 pupils per teacherChile: 26.4% of employment, 17.8 pupils per teacherCote d'Ivoire: 92.1% of employment, 41.8 pupils per teacherCameroon: 87.1% of employment, 44.8 pupils per teacherCongo, Dem. Rep.: 96.3% of employment, 33.2 pupils per teacherColombia: 56% of employment, 23.3 pupils per teacherComoros: 88.8% of employment, 28.1 pupils per teacherCabo Verde: 60.6% of employment, 21.1 pupils per teacherCosta Rica: 36.1% of employment, 12.2 pupils per teacherCyprus: 1.68% of employment, 12 pupils per teacherCzechia: 2.26% of employment, 18.9 pupils per teacherGermany: 2.49% of employment, 12.3 pupils per teacherDjibouti: 47.6% of employment, 29.4 pupils per teacherDenmark: 2.82% of employment, 10.7 pupils per teacherDominican Republic: 54.7% of employment, 18.9 pupils per teacherEcuador: 68.5% of employment, 24.3 pupils per teacherEgypt, Arab Rep.: 68.6% of employment, 23.7 pupils per teacherSpain: 2.2% of employment, 13.1 pupils per teacherEstonia: 2.4% of employment, 11.3 pupils per teacherEthiopia: 77.7% of employment, 55.1 pupils per teacherFinland: 2.19% of employment, 13.7 pupils per teacherFiji: 45.7% of employment, 28 pupils per teacherFrance: 3.15% of employment, 18.2 pupils per teacherUnited Kingdom: 6.51% of employment, 15.1 pupils per teacherGeorgia: 51.5% of employment, 8.98 pupils per teacherGhana: 78% of employment, 27 pupils per teacherGambia, The: 83.9% of employment, 36.1 pupils per teacherGuinea-Bissau: 94.8% of employment, 51.9 pupils per teacherGreece: 3.58% of employment, 9.38 pupils per teacherGrenada: 48% of employment, 16.4 pupils per teacherGuatemala: 75.9% of employment, 20.3 pupils per teacherGuyana: 51% of employment, 23.2 pupils per teacherHonduras: 82.6% of employment, 25.6 pupils per teacherCroatia: 1.17% of employment, 13.5 pupils per teacherHungary: 1.31% of employment, 10.8 pupils per teacherIndonesia: 81% of employment, 17 pupils per teacherIndia: 88.1% of employment, 32.7 pupils per teacherIreland: 1.9% of employment, 16.1 pupils per teacherIceland: 1.97% of employment, 10.1 pupils per teacherItaly: 3.42% of employment, 11.5 pupils per teacherJamaica: 54.6% of employment, 24.8 pupils per teacherJordan: 55.1% of employment, 18.5 pupils per teacherKenya: 86.5% of employment, 30.7 pupils per teacherKyrgyz Republic: 57.5% of employment, 25 pupils per teacherCambodia: 89.4% of employment, 41.7 pupils per teacherKiribati: 61.5% of employment, 25.5 pupils per teacherKorea, Rep.: 29.1% of employment, 16.3 pupils per teacherLao PDR: 90.5% of employment, 22.3 pupils per teacherLebanon: 55.5% of employment, 12.5 pupils per teacherLiberia: 89.3% of employment, 22.3 pupils per teacherSt. Lucia: 28.3% of employment, 14.7 pupils per teacherSri Lanka: 67.6% of employment, 21.7 pupils per teacherLesotho: 89.1% of employment, 32.9 pupils per teacherLithuania: 3.2% of employment, 13.5 pupils per teacherLuxembourg: 1.93% of employment, 8.3 pupils per teacherLatvia: 2.17% of employment, 11.5 pupils per teacherMoldova: 52.2% of employment, 17.9 pupils per teacherMadagascar: 96.1% of employment, 39.8 pupils per teacherMaldives: 47.3% of employment, 10.2 pupils per teacherMexico: 56.4% of employment, 26.6 pupils per teacherNorth Macedonia: 11.1% of employment, 14.9 pupils per teacherMali: 94.4% of employment, 37.8 pupils per teacherMalta: 0.63% of employment, 12.9 pupils per teacherMyanmar: 80.7% of employment, 24.4 pupils per teacherMongolia: 27.1% of employment, 30.4 pupils per teacherMozambique: 95.5% of employment, 55.3 pupils per teacherMauritania: 89.3% of employment, 34.3 pupils per teacherMauritius: 23.4% of employment, 16.2 pupils per teacherMalawi: 92.7% of employment, 58.7 pupils per teacherNamibia: 55.6% of employment, 25.1 pupils per teacherNiger: 98.5% of employment, 36.3 pupils per teacherNigeria: 93.1% of employment, 37.6 pupils per teacherNicaragua: 81.8% of employment, 30.2 pupils per teacherNetherlands: 2.63% of employment, 11.8 pupils per teacherNorway: 1.43% of employment, 8.59 pupils per teacherNepal: 81.5% of employment, 19.7 pupils per teacherNaoero: 47.9% of employment, 40.2 pupils per teacherPakistan: 88.7% of employment, 44.1 pupils per teacherPanama: 58.7% of employment, 22 pupils per teacherPeru: 70.5% of employment, 17.4 pupils per teacherPoland: 8.62% of employment, 10.2 pupils per teacherPortugal: 4.73% of employment, 12.4 pupils per teacherParaguay: 64.5% of employment, 24.2 pupils per teacherWest Bank and Gaza: 48.8% of employment, 24.5 pupils per teacherRomania: 2.21% of employment, 19.3 pupils per teacherRussian Federation: 19.3% of employment, 21.3 pupils per teacherRwanda: 84.3% of employment, 59.5 pupils per teacherSenegal: 89.2% of employment, 36.3 pupils per teacherSierra Leone: 93.1% of employment, 27.5 pupils per teacherEl Salvador: 64% of employment, 26.9 pupils per teacherSerbia: 17.8% of employment, 14.3 pupils per teacherSuriname: 50.9% of employment, 13.4 pupils per teacherSlovak Republic: 4.37% of employment, 15.5 pupils per teacherSlovenia: 0.7% of employment, 13.8 pupils per teacherSweden: 2.83% of employment, 12.2 pupils per teacherEswatini: 53.3% of employment, 26.6 pupils per teacherSeychelles: 14.2% of employment, 14.5 pupils per teacherChad: 96.9% of employment, 56.9 pupils per teacherTogo: 92.3% of employment, 40.1 pupils per teacherThailand: 63.2% of employment, 16.6 pupils per teacherTajikistan: 63.6% of employment, 22.3 pupils per teacherTimor-Leste: 80.6% of employment, 26.9 pupils per teacherTonga: 59.2% of employment, 21.6 pupils per teacherTunisia: 36.9% of employment, 16.9 pupils per teacherTurkiye: 27.7% of employment, 17 pupils per teacherTuvalu: 20.1% of employment, 15.6 pupils per teacherTanzania: 90.8% of employment, 50.6 pupils per teacherUganda: 94.5% of employment, 42.7 pupils per teacherUruguay: 28.5% of employment, 11 pupils per teacherViet Nam: 67% of employment, 20.3 pupils per teacherVanuatu: 72.4% of employment, 26.6 pupils per teacherSamoa: 51.5% of employment, 30.2 pupils per teacherSouth Africa: 34.8% of employment, 30.3 pupils per teacherZambia: 82.7% of employment, 42.1 pupils per teacherZimbabwe: 85% of employment, 36.4 pupils per teacherARMBOLCHEETHIDNLUXMWINORRWATCD

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.7666.9e-27133
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.8313.4e-35133
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2230.010133
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3250.000133

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 133 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.543 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.180 (without TUV) to +0.243 (without ETH). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: TUV (-0.043).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific17+0.10
Europe & Central Asia40-0.00
Latin America & Caribbean24+0.43
Sub-Saharan Africa38+0.29

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third45+0.45
Middle third44+0.03
Richest third44+0.51

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians88+0.18
Muslims28+0.44

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France18+0.46
Never a European colony12-0.35
Spain15+0.24
United Kingdom40+0.40

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.313 after dropping 5 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 19years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.166, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose informal employment moved did not tend to see their pupil-teacher ratio move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.223for comparison
Within countries+0.406each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.166q = 0.133 · 56 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.025q = 0.850
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

521 country-years (one country in one year), 56 countries, 2000–2018, about 9 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 2% for Informal employment, 4% for Pupil-teacher ratio. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+5years Pupil-teacher ratio trails Informal employment →lag -10: r = 0.158 (n = 847)lag -9: r = 0.161 (n = 847)lag -8: r = 0.197 (n = 856)lag -7: r = 0.208 (n = 879)lag -6: r = 0.208 (n = 862)lag -5: r = 0.208 (n = 819)lag -4: r = 0.250 (n = 749)lag -3: r = 0.249 (n = 692)lag -2: r = 0.232 (n = 637)lag -1: r = 0.222 (n = 582)lag +0: r = 0.166 (n = 521)lag +1: r = 0.099 (n = 475)lag +2: r = 0.063 (n = 420)lag +3: r = 0.083 (n = 360)lag +4: r = 0.101 (n = 294)lag +5: r = 0.206 (n = 236)

Same year (lag 0): +0.166. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (+0.25 at lag -4) is higher than the same-year one by 0.08. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 16 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


% of employment
pupils per teacher		Years
Niger NER98.5%36.32022, 2017
Burundi BDI98%42.52014, 2018
Chad TCD96.9%56.92018, 2016
Benin BEN96.3%39.22022, 2018
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD96.3%33.22020, 2015
Madagascar MDG96.1%39.82022, 2018
Mozambique MOZ95.5%55.32015, 2018
Angola AGO95.3%502024, 2015
Guinea-Bissau GNB94.8%51.92022, 2010
Uganda UGA94.5%42.72021, 2017
Mali MLI94.4%37.82023, 2018
Burkina Faso BFA93.8%39.72024, 2018
Nigeria NGA93.1%37.62024, 2010
Sierra Leone SLE93.1%27.52018
Malawi MWI92.7%58.72024, 2018

United Nations Global SDG Indicators Database; series compiled by the International Labour Organization (8.3.1) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (16.3.2)
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Informal employment

Share of employment that is informal

International Labour Organization · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

Workers with no contract, no social protection or no registered employer, as the ILO (the UN's labour agency) makes them comparable across national labour force surveys. The World Bank's copy of this series was retired, so it comes from the UN's database for the Sustainable Development Goals.

Pupil-teacher ratio

Pupil-teacher ratio, primary

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

The World Bank's copy stops at 2019.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 6 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Informal employment and Pupil-teacher ratio

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Informal employment changes Pupil-teacher ratio, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Informal employment or Pupil-teacher ratio