placestats

Informal employment vs. Out of school, primary

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 134 countries, Informal employment and Out of school, primary rise and fall together at r = +0.51 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.15, which could easily be chance (q = 0.18, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of informal employment, 13.1% to 83.6% of employment, out of school, primary is worse by 10.8% of primary-age children at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 5.67% of primary-age children.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.509p = 3.3e-10 · 134 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.154p = 0.077 · likely range [-0.02, +0.32]
p, allowing for regions0.050standard error 0.060 · 6 regions
Check for luck (q)0.182across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Informal employment · % of employmentlink with income -0.88 · proxy
Out of school, primary · % of primary-age childrenlink with income -0.45 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Informal employment · % of employment →Out of school, primary · % of primary-age children →0.63%98.5%0.0355%43.8%Angola: 95.3% of employment, 36.8% of primary-age childrenArgentina: 51.6% of employment, 0.735% of primary-age childrenArmenia: 76.1% of employment, 1.08% of primary-age childrenAntigua and Barbuda: 12.8% of employment, 1.71% of primary-age childrenAustria: 1.32% of employment, 1.43% of primary-age childrenBurundi: 98% of employment, 26.5% of primary-age childrenBelgium: 1.37% of employment, 1.66% of primary-age childrenBenin: 96.3% of employment, 9.61% of primary-age childrenBurkina Faso: 93.8% of employment, 34.3% of primary-age childrenBangladesh: 84% of employment, 5.86% of primary-age childrenBulgaria: 1.2% of employment, 5.9% of primary-age childrenBahamas, The: 18.3% of employment, 15.9% of primary-age childrenBosnia and Herzegovina: 16.6% of employment, 2.1% of primary-age childrenBolivia: 83.9% of employment, 9.25% of primary-age childrenBrazil: 35.6% of employment, 2.19% of primary-age childrenBarbados: 61.8% of employment, 17.6% of primary-age childrenBrunei Darussalam: 21.4% of employment, 3.61% of primary-age childrenBotswana: 75.6% of employment, 0.535% of primary-age childrenSwitzerland: 1.48% of employment, 0.143% of primary-age childrenChile: 26.4% of employment, 2.12% of primary-age childrenCote d'Ivoire: 92.1% of employment, 12.6% of primary-age childrenCameroon: 87.1% of employment, 3.76% of primary-age childrenColombia: 56% of employment, 7.32% of primary-age childrenComoros: 88.8% of employment, 20.6% of primary-age childrenCabo Verde: 60.6% of employment, 41.8% of primary-age childrenCosta Rica: 36.1% of employment, 4.49% of primary-age childrenCyprus: 1.68% of employment, 0.425% of primary-age childrenCzechia: 2.26% of employment, 0.809% of primary-age childrenGermany: 2.49% of employment, 0.274% of primary-age childrenDenmark: 2.82% of employment, 0.893% of primary-age childrenDominican Republic: 54.7% of employment, 4.93% of primary-age childrenEcuador: 68.5% of employment, 4.72% of primary-age childrenEgypt, Arab Rep.: 68.6% of employment, 3.51% of primary-age childrenSpain: 2.2% of employment, 1.24% of primary-age childrenEstonia: 2.4% of employment, 3.39% of primary-age childrenEthiopia: 77.7% of employment, 22.5% of primary-age childrenFinland: 2.19% of employment, 1.77% of primary-age childrenFiji: 45.7% of employment, 2.39% of primary-age childrenFrance: 3.15% of employment, 0.204% of primary-age childrenUnited Kingdom: 6.51% of employment, 0.0698% of primary-age childrenGeorgia: 51.5% of employment, 6.17% of primary-age childrenGhana: 78% of employment, 4.77% of primary-age childrenGambia, The: 83.9% of employment, 16.9% of primary-age childrenGuinea-Bissau: 94.8% of employment, 30.5% of primary-age childrenGreece: 3.58% of employment, 0.11% of primary-age childrenGrenada: 48% of employment, 4.94% of primary-age childrenGuatemala: 75.9% of employment, 8.43% of primary-age childrenGuyana: 51% of employment, 18% of primary-age childrenHonduras: 82.6% of employment, 26.6% of primary-age childrenCroatia: 1.17% of employment, 1.81% of primary-age childrenHungary: 1.31% of employment, 2.81% of primary-age childrenIndonesia: 81% of employment, 0.877% of primary-age childrenIndia: 88.1% of employment, 0.119% of primary-age childrenIreland: 1.9% of employment, 1.81% of primary-age childrenIceland: 1.97% of employment, 1.82% of primary-age childrenItaly: 3.42% of employment, 2.06% of primary-age childrenJamaica: 54.6% of employment, 4.34% of primary-age childrenJordan: 55.1% of employment, 1.89% of primary-age childrenKenya: 86.5% of employment, 32.9% of primary-age childrenKyrgyz Republic: 57.5% of employment, 2.96% of primary-age childrenCambodia: 89.4% of employment, 3.69% of primary-age childrenKiribati: 61.5% of employment, 8.71% of primary-age childrenKorea, Rep.: 29.1% of employment, 0.0557% of primary-age childrenLao PDR: 90.5% of employment, 10.4% of primary-age childrenLebanon: 55.5% of employment, 22.5% of primary-age childrenLiberia: 89.3% of employment, 38.3% of primary-age childrenSt. Lucia: 28.3% of employment, 7.01% of primary-age childrenSri Lanka: 67.6% of employment, 9.14% of primary-age childrenLesotho: 89.1% of employment, 32.2% of primary-age childrenLithuania: 3.2% of employment, 0.13% of primary-age childrenLuxembourg: 1.93% of employment, 0.256% of primary-age childrenLatvia: 2.17% of employment, 2.74% of primary-age childrenMoldova: 52.2% of employment, 0.463% of primary-age childrenMadagascar: 96.1% of employment, 3.4% of primary-age childrenMaldives: 47.3% of employment, 0.946% of primary-age childrenMexico: 56.4% of employment, 0.363% of primary-age childrenMarshall Islands: 32.6% of employment, 1.48% of primary-age childrenNorth Macedonia: 11.1% of employment, 3.79% of primary-age childrenMali: 94.4% of employment, 34% of primary-age childrenMalta: 0.63% of employment, 2.64% of primary-age childrenMyanmar: 80.7% of employment, 1.41% of primary-age childrenMongolia: 27.1% of employment, 8.56% of primary-age childrenMozambique: 95.5% of employment, 1% of primary-age childrenMauritania: 89.3% of employment, 11.3% of primary-age childrenMauritius: 23.4% of employment, 0.785% of primary-age childrenMalawi: 92.7% of employment, 2.09% of primary-age childrenNamibia: 55.6% of employment, 0.865% of primary-age childrenNiger: 98.5% of employment, 40.4% of primary-age childrenNigeria: 93.1% of employment, 24.3% of primary-age childrenNicaragua: 81.8% of employment, 6.66% of primary-age childrenNetherlands: 2.63% of employment, 0.519% of primary-age childrenNorway: 1.43% of employment, 1.38% of primary-age childrenNepal: 81.5% of employment, 0.762% of primary-age childrenNaoero: 47.9% of employment, 6.6% of primary-age childrenPakistan: 88.7% of employment, 17.9% of primary-age childrenPanama: 58.7% of employment, 7.7% of primary-age childrenPeru: 70.5% of employment, 0.156% of primary-age childrenPalau: 7.27% of employment, 1.33% of primary-age childrenPoland: 8.62% of employment, 0.0917% of primary-age childrenPortugal: 4.73% of employment, 0.508% of primary-age childrenParaguay: 64.5% of employment, 13.3% of primary-age childrenWest Bank and Gaza: 48.8% of employment, 9.56% of primary-age childrenRomania: 2.21% of employment, 15.6% of primary-age childrenRussian Federation: 19.3% of employment, 4.94% of primary-age childrenRwanda: 84.3% of employment, 0.97% of primary-age childrenSudan: 94.2% of employment, 43.8% of primary-age childrenSenegal: 89.2% of employment, 24.5% of primary-age childrenSierra Leone: 93.1% of employment, 0.888% of primary-age childrenEl Salvador: 64% of employment, 8.66% of primary-age childrenSerbia: 17.8% of employment, 3.33% of primary-age childrenSuriname: 50.9% of employment, 16.2% of primary-age childrenSlovak Republic: 4.37% of employment, 1.06% of primary-age childrenSlovenia: 0.7% of employment, 1.45% of primary-age childrenSweden: 2.83% of employment, 0.57% of primary-age childrenEswatini: 53.3% of employment, 3.83% of primary-age childrenSeychelles: 14.2% of employment, 6.8% of primary-age childrenChad: 96.9% of employment, 24.8% of primary-age childrenTogo: 92.3% of employment, 0.639% of primary-age childrenThailand: 63.2% of employment, 0.817% of primary-age childrenTajikistan: 63.6% of employment, 4.15% of primary-age childrenTimor-Leste: 80.6% of employment, 6.88% of primary-age childrenTonga: 59.2% of employment, 2.28% of primary-age childrenTunisia: 36.9% of employment, 1.09% of primary-age childrenTurkiye: 27.7% of employment, 0.603% of primary-age childrenTuvalu: 20.1% of employment, 0.537% of primary-age childrenTanzania: 90.8% of employment, 16.4% of primary-age childrenUganda: 94.5% of employment, 4.12% of primary-age childrenUruguay: 28.5% of employment, 0.0355% of primary-age childrenViet Nam: 67% of employment, 1.73% of primary-age childrenVanuatu: 72.4% of employment, 2.53% of primary-age childrenSamoa: 51.5% of employment, 1.81% of primary-age childrenSouth Africa: 34.8% of employment, 6.06% of primary-age childrenZambia: 82.7% of employment, 3.51% of primary-age childrenZimbabwe: 85% of employment, 10.5% of primary-age childrenAGOCHECPVCYPLUXMOZNERROUSDNSLETGO

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5093.3e-10134
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5142.1e-10134
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1540.077134
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1480.090134

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 134 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.355 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.115 (without GUY) to +0.176 (without LBR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GUY (-0.039).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific19+0.16
Europe & Central Asia40-0.16
Latin America & Caribbean25+0.31
Sub-Saharan Africa38+0.15

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third45+0.27
Middle third44+0.08
Richest third45+0.34

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians88+0.20
Muslims27+0.18

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France17-0.08
Spain16+0.03
United Kingdom41+0.27

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.257 after dropping 17 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 25years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.155, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose informal employment moved did not tend to see their out of school, primary move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.154for comparison
Within countries+0.171each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.155q = 0.307 · 74 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.046q = 0.628
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

969 country-years (one country in one year), 74 countries, 2000–2024, about 13 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 2% for Informal employment, 15% for Out of school, primary. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Out of school, primary trails Informal employment →lag -10: r = -0.134 (n = 696)lag -9: r = -0.111 (n = 741)lag -8: r = -0.010 (n = 766)lag -7: r = -0.027 (n = 818)lag -6: r = 0.008 (n = 859)lag -5: r = 0.004 (n = 882)lag -4: r = 0.053 (n = 901)lag -3: r = 0.053 (n = 952)lag -2: r = 0.115 (n = 964)lag -1: r = 0.163 (n = 975)lag +0: r = 0.155 (n = 969)lag +1: r = 0.182 (n = 920)lag +2: r = 0.225 (n = 858)lag +3: r = 0.259 (n = 811)lag +4: r = 0.258 (n = 753)lag +5: r = 0.220 (n = 691)lag +6: r = 0.125 (n = 634)lag +7: r = 0.033 (n = 571)lag +8: r = 0.013 (n = 512)lag +9: r = -0.020 (n = 454)lag +10: r = -0.021 (n = 381)

Same year (lag 0): +0.155. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (+0.26 at lag +3) is higher than the same-year one by 0.10. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


% of employment
% of primary-age children		Years
Niger NER98.5%40.4%2022, 2024
Burundi BDI98%26.5%2014, 2025
Chad TCD96.9%24.8%2018, 2024
Benin BEN96.3%9.61%2022
Madagascar MDG96.1%3.4%2022, 2024
Mozambique MOZ95.5%1%2015, 2022
Angola AGO95.3%36.8%2024, 2023
Guinea-Bissau GNB94.8%30.5%2022, 2010
Uganda UGA94.5%4.12%2021, 2013
Mali MLI94.4%34%2023
Sudan SDN94.2%43.8%2022, 2019
Burkina Faso BFA93.8%34.3%2024
Nigeria NGA93.1%24.3%2024, 2023
Sierra Leone SLE93.1%0.888%2018, 2015
Malawi MWI92.7%2.09%2024, 2022

United Nations Global SDG Indicators Database; series compiled by the International Labour Organization (8.3.1) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (16.3.2)
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Informal employment

Share of employment that is informal

International Labour Organization · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

Workers with no contract, no social protection or no registered employer, as the ILO (the UN's labour agency) makes them comparable across national labour force surveys. The World Bank's copy of this series was retired, so it comes from the UN's database for the Sustainable Development Goals.

Out of school, primary

Children out of school (% of primary school age)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Children of primary-school age not enrolled at any level. Treated as measuring the same thing as gross primary enrolment, which is on the site. They are two ways of asking whether children are in school, so their agreement is not a finding.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 6 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Informal employment and Out of school, primary

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Informal employment changes Out of school, primary, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Informal employment or Out of school, primary