placestats

GDP growth vs. Urbanization

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 199 countries, GDP growth and Urbanization rise and fall together at r = -0.32 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.27, q = 0.041, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of gdp growth, 1.76% to 4.96% per year, urbanization is 7.76% of population lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 5.01% of population.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.321p = 3.9e-6 · 199 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.269p = 0.000 · likely range [-0.39, -0.13]
p, allowing for regions0.004standard error 0.058 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.041across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

GDP growth · % per yearlink with income -0.33 · moderate
Urbanization · % of populationlink with income +0.65 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

GDP growth · % per year →Urbanization · % of population →-7.08%19.3%15.8%100%Aruba: 6.81% per year, 61.7% of populationAfghanistan: 1.87% per year, 25.9% of populationAngola: 3.13% per year, 71.5% of populationAlbania: 3.79% per year, 58.9% of populationAndorra: 3.87% per year, 88.9% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 3.99% per year, 86% of populationArgentina: 4.37% per year, 92.4% of populationArmenia: 7.2% per year, 65.9% of populationAntigua and Barbuda: 5% per year, 24.3% of populationAustralia: 1.35% per year, 87.7% of populationAustria: 0.616% per year, 69.7% of populationAzerbaijan: 1.45% per year, 58.6% of populationBurundi: 4.24% per year, 25.7% of populationBelgium: 0.983% per year, 87.7% of populationBenin: 8.07% per year, 53.4% of populationBurkina Faso: 5.29% per year, 28.9% of populationBangladesh: 3.49% per year, 33.2% of populationBulgaria: 3.1% per year, 74.2% of populationBahrain: 3.48% per year, 100% of populationBahamas, The: 3.38% per year, 81.3% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 2.13% per year, 52.7% of populationBelarus: 1.3% per year, 79.5% of populationBelize: 2.75% per year, 41.6% of populationBermuda: 1.89% per year, 100% of populationBolivia: -1.58% per year, 71.6% of populationBrazil: 2.29% per year, 88.2% of populationBarbados: 2.7% per year, 59.7% of populationBrunei Darussalam: 0.67% per year, 75% of populationBhutan: 8.01% per year, 43.4% of populationBotswana: -0.734% per year, 68% of populationCentral African Republic: 4.5% per year, 44.6% of populationCanada: 1.74% per year, 82.9% of populationSwitzerland: 1.3% per year, 85.7% of populationChile: 2.46% per year, 89.2% of populationChina: 4.96% per year, 66.3% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 6.5% per year, 54.5% of populationCameroon: 3.2% per year, 55.7% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 5.76% per year, 45.1% of populationCongo, Rep.: 3.08% per year, 64.1% of populationColombia: 2.64% per year, 78.8% of populationComoros: 3.75% per year, 33.9% of populationCabo Verde: 6.3% per year, 77.6% of populationCosta Rica: 4.56% per year, 79.7% of populationCuracao: 5.03% per year, 91.5% of populationCayman Islands: 3.76% per year, 100% of populationCyprus: 3.77% per year, 66.7% of populationCzechia: 2.58% per year, 72.9% of populationGermany: 0.24% per year, 82.1% of populationDjibouti: 6.5% per year, 73% of populationDominica: 3.05% per year, 74% of populationDenmark: 2.93% per year, 88.8% of populationDominican Republic: 2.12% per year, 72.5% of populationAlgeria: 3.82% per year, 75.8% of populationEcuador: 3.73% per year, 63.4% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 4.39% per year, 42.9% of populationSpain: 2.82% per year, 80.5% of populationEstonia: 0.584% per year, 70.7% of populationEthiopia: 9.77% per year, 24.1% of populationFinland: 0.173% per year, 74.5% of populationFiji: 3.2% per year, 59.5% of populationFrance: 0.841% per year, 78.8% of populationFaroe Islands: 0.844% per year, 39.6% of populationMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 1.06% per year, 22.5% of populationGabon: 2.47% per year, 92.1% of populationUnited Kingdom: 1.39% per year, 83.3% of populationGeorgia: 7.46% per year, 61.2% of populationGhana: 5.95% per year, 58.9% of populationGuinea: 7.45% per year, 38.5% of populationGambia, The: 5.89% per year, 65% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 5.82% per year, 46.7% of populationEquatorial Guinea: -5.85% per year, 71.6% of populationGreece: 2.07% per year, 79.2% of populationGrenada: 4.41% per year, 36.7% of populationGreenland: 0.866% per year, 88.6% of populationGuatemala: 4.28% per year, 56.3% of populationGuyana: 19.3% per year, 26.5% of populationHong Kong SAR, China: 3.49% per year, 100% of populationHonduras: 3.75% per year, 59.3% of populationCroatia: 3.4% per year, 57.8% of populationHaiti: -2.71% per year, 55.6% of populationHungary: 0.51% per year, 70.7% of populationIndonesia: 5.11% per year, 59.4% of populationIndia: 7.57% per year, 35.7% of populationIreland: 12.3% per year, 64.6% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: -2.83% per year, 77.4% of populationIraq: -2.16% per year, 69.9% of populationIceland: 1.28% per year, 94.2% of populationIsrael: 2.93% per year, 91.6% of populationItaly: 0.54% per year, 69.7% of populationJamaica: 0.0816% per year, 59.4% of populationJordan: 2.83% per year, 93.2% of populationJapan: 1.19% per year, 92.3% of populationKazakhstan: 6.5% per year, 62.4% of populationKenya: 4.63% per year, 32.2% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 11.1% per year, 34.7% of populationCambodia: 5.35% per year, 41.1% of populationKiribati: 4.22% per year, 63.4% of populationSt. Kitts and Nevis: 2.69% per year, 31.9% of populationKorea, Rep.: 1.01% per year, 81.2% of populationKuwait: 2.73% per year, 100% of populationLao PDR: 4.54% per year, 40.3% of populationLebanon: -7.08% per year, 91% of populationLiberia: 5.02% per year, 56.1% of populationLibya: 13.4% per year, 87.9% of populationSt. Lucia: -0.574% per year, 29.1% of populationSri Lanka: 4.95% per year, 20.5% of populationLesotho: 1.98% per year, 44.7% of populationLithuania: 2.92% per year, 69.1% of populationLuxembourg: 0.638% per year, 94.9% of populationLatvia: 2.14% per year, 68.6% of populationMacao SAR, China: 4.67% per year, 100% of populationMorocco: 4.6% per year, 63.1% of populationMoldova: 2.42% per year, 43.7% of populationMadagascar: 3% per year, 32.9% of populationMaldives: 6.31% per year, 42.5% of populationMexico: 0.562% per year, 80% of populationMarshall Islands: 2.28% per year, 79.1% of populationNorth Macedonia: 3.49% per year, 62.9% of populationMali: 5.6% per year, 32.2% of populationMalta: 3.96% per year, 95.7% of populationMyanmar: -2.01% per year, 30.6% of populationMontenegro: 2.74% per year, 65.6% of populationMongolia: 6.84% per year, 71.1% of populationMozambique: -0.523% per year, 37.2% of populationMauritania: 4.03% per year, 61.5% of populationMauritius: 3.15% per year, 39% of populationMalawi: 1.89% per year, 17.6% of populationMalaysia: 5.17% per year, 77.4% of populationNamibia: 1.73% per year, 50.9% of populationNiger: 7.01% per year, 18.4% of populationNigeria: 4.01% per year, 63.8% of populationNicaragua: 4.92% per year, 59.4% of populationNetherlands: 1.78% per year, 95.9% of populationNorway: 1.09% per year, 83.6% of populationNepal: 4.43% per year, 67% of populationNaoero: 2.14% per year, 100% of populationNew Zealand: 0.463% per year, 84% of populationOman: 2.4% per year, 79.5% of populationPakistan: 3.7% per year, 39.5% of populationPanama: 4.35% per year, 66.2% of populationPeru: 3.43% per year, 85.6% of populationPhilippines: 4.4% per year, 55.8% of populationPalau: 6.29% per year, 79.3% of populationPapua New Guinea: 5.64% per year, 15.8% of populationPoland: 3.57% per year, 60.1% of populationPuerto Rico (US): 0.318% per year, 94.3% of populationPortugal: 1.86% per year, 61.5% of populationParaguay: 6.64% per year, 70.4% of populationWest Bank and Gaza: 4.34% per year, 87.4% of populationQatar: 2.9% per year, 99.4% of populationRomania: 0.678% per year, 52.2% of populationRussian Federation: 1% per year, 75.3% of populationRwanda: 9.38% per year, 30.9% of populationSaudi Arabia: 4.5% per year, 84.6% of populationSudan: 3.06% per year, 34.9% of populationSenegal: 6.68% per year, 55.8% of populationSingapore: 5.03% per year, 100% of populationSolomon Islands: 3.62% per year, 31.3% of populationSierra Leone: 4.61% per year, 45.9% of populationEl Salvador: 3.91% per year, 75.5% of populationSan Marino: 0.402% per year, 97.2% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 2.99% per year, 55.1% of populationSerbia: 2.03% per year, 62.6% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 1.03% per year, 69.2% of populationSuriname: 1.79% per year, 65.8% of populationSlovak Republic: 0.807% per year, 53.2% of populationSlovenia: 1.06% per year, 56% of populationSweden: 1.54% per year, 89.1% of populationEswatini: 4.19% per year, 26.7% of populationSint Maarten (Dutch part): 3.4% per year, 100% of populationSeychelles: 5.8% per year, 45.5% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: -0.202% per year, 72.1% of populationTurks and Caicos Islands: 5.64% per year, 94.4% of populationChad: 5.59% per year, 27.6% of populationTogo: 6.31% per year, 44.4% of populationThailand: 2.44% per year, 62.8% of populationTajikistan: 8.4% per year, 26.2% of populationTurkmenistan: 6.3% per year, 47.1% of populationTimor-Leste: 6.98% per year, 28.8% of populationTonga: 2.8% per year, 21.2% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: -0.788% per year, 54% of populationTunisia: 2.49% per year, 70.7% of populationTurkiye: 3.6% per year, 89.5% of populationTuvalu: 1.64% per year, 65.4% of populationTanzania: 5.85% per year, 36.9% of populationUganda: 6.33% per year, 31.9% of populationUkraine: 1.82% per year, 69.6% of populationUruguay: 1.78% per year, 95.7% of populationUnited States: 2.16% per year, 80.2% of populationUzbekistan: 7.7% per year, 51% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 3.39% per year, 48% of populationVirgin Islands (U.S.): -1.31% per year, 95.4% of populationViet Nam: 8.02% per year, 38.8% of populationVanuatu: 3.05% per year, 22.3% of populationSamoa: 4.2% per year, 17.5% of populationKosovo: 3.59% per year, 50.9% of populationSouth Africa: 1.11% per year, 63.8% of populationZambia: 3.76% per year, 45.9% of populationZimbabwe: 8.11% per year, 40.5% of populationETHGNQGUYIRLKGZLBNLBYLCAMMRVIR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3213.9e-6199
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.3475.1e-7199
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2690.000199
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1820.010199

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 199 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.052 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.306 (without LBY) to -0.194 (without GUY). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GUY (+0.075).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific31-0.12
Europe & Central Asia53-0.23
Latin America & Caribbean38-0.36
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22-0.08
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.29

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third67-0.30
Middle third66-0.14
Richest third66-0.39

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians112-0.33
Muslims50-0.31

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.63
Never a European colony21-0.55
Spain20-0.15
United Kingdom63-0.23

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.147 after dropping 7 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 36years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.091, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose gdp growth moved did not tend to see their urbanization move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.269for comparison
Within countries-0.075each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.091q = 0.045 · 214 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.008q = 0.817
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

7,296 country-years (one country in one year), 214 countries, 1990–2025, about 34 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 92% for GDP growth, 4% for Urbanization. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Urbanization trails GDP growth →lag -10: r = -0.029 (n = 5,354)lag -9: r = -0.023 (n = 5,553)lag -8: r = -0.018 (n = 5,752)lag -7: r = -0.026 (n = 5,949)lag -6: r = -0.026 (n = 6,146)lag -5: r = -0.041 (n = 6,342)lag -4: r = -0.057 (n = 6,537)lag -3: r = -0.067 (n = 6,732)lag -2: r = -0.086 (n = 6,926)lag -1: r = -0.098 (n = 7,120)lag +0: r = -0.091 (n = 7,296)lag +1: r = -0.093 (n = 7,110)lag +2: r = -0.090 (n = 6,910)lag +3: r = -0.083 (n = 6,706)lag +4: r = -0.075 (n = 6,497)lag +5: r = -0.064 (n = 6,287)lag +6: r = -0.067 (n = 6,077)lag +7: r = -0.061 (n = 5,863)lag +8: r = -0.055 (n = 5,649)lag +9: r = -0.050 (n = 5,441)lag +10: r = -0.041 (n = 5,233)

Same year (lag 0): -0.091. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% per year
% of population		Years
Guyana GUY19.3%26.5%2025
Libya LBY13.4%87.9%2025
Ireland IRL12.3%64.6%2025
Kyrgyz Republic KGZ11.1%34.7%2025
Ethiopia ETH9.77%24.1%2025
Rwanda RWA9.38%30.9%2025
Tajikistan TJK8.4%26.2%2025
Zimbabwe ZWE8.11%40.5%2025
Benin BEN8.07%53.4%2025
Viet Nam VNM8.02%38.8%2025
Bhutan BTN8.01%43.4%2025
Uzbekistan UZB7.7%51%2025
India IND7.57%35.7%2025
Georgia GEO7.46%61.2%2025
Guinea GIN7.45%38.5%2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

GDP growth

GDP growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Urbanization

Urban population (% of total population)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2022–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore GDP growth and Urbanization

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that GDP growth changes Urbanization, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with GDP growth or Urbanization