placestats

DTP3 immunisation vs. GDP growth

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 186 countries, DTP3 immunisation and GDP growth rise and fall together at r = +0.10 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). There is almost no link to explain.

Comparing countries across the middle half of gdp growth, 1.78% to 4.96% per year, dtp3 immunisation is better by 1.28% of children aged 12-23 months at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 2.6% of children aged 12-23 months.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.097p = 0.186 · 186 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.227p = 0.002 · likely range [+0.09, +0.36]
p, allowing for regions0.009standard error 0.059 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.037across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

DTP3 immunisation · % of children aged 12-23 monthslink with income +0.53 · moderate
GDP growth · % per yearlink with income -0.33 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

DTP3 immunisation · % of children aged 12-23 months →GDP growth · % per year →39%99%-7.08%19.3%Afghanistan: 59% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.87% per yearAngola: 64% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.13% per yearAlbania: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.79% per yearAndorra: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.87% per yearUnited Arab Emirates: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.99% per yearArgentina: 75% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.37% per yearArmenia: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.2% per yearAntigua and Barbuda: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 5% per yearAustralia: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.35% per yearAustria: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.616% per yearAzerbaijan: 51% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.45% per yearBurundi: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.24% per yearBelgium: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.983% per yearBenin: 63% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.07% per yearBurkina Faso: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.29% per yearBangladesh: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.49% per yearBulgaria: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.1% per yearBahrain: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.48% per yearBahamas, The: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.38% per yearBosnia and Herzegovina: 79% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.13% per yearBelarus: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.3% per yearBelize: 88% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.75% per yearBolivia: 59% of children aged 12-23 months, -1.58% per yearBrazil: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.29% per yearBarbados: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.7% per yearBrunei Darussalam: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.67% per yearBhutan: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.01% per yearBotswana: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, -0.734% per yearCentral African Republic: 42% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.5% per yearCanada: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.74% per yearSwitzerland: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.3% per yearChile: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.46% per yearChina: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.96% per yearCote d'Ivoire: 77% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.5% per yearCameroon: 77% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.2% per yearCongo, Dem. Rep.: 65% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.76% per yearCongo, Rep.: 78% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.08% per yearColombia: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.64% per yearComoros: 75% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.75% per yearCabo Verde: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.3% per yearCosta Rica: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.56% per yearCyprus: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.77% per yearCzechia: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.58% per yearGermany: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.24% per yearDjibouti: 77% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.5% per yearDominica: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.05% per yearDenmark: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.93% per yearDominican Republic: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.12% per yearAlgeria: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.82% per yearEcuador: 70% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.73% per yearEgypt, Arab Rep.: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.39% per yearSpain: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.82% per yearEstonia: 81% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.584% per yearEthiopia: 73% of children aged 12-23 months, 9.77% per yearFinland: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.173% per yearFiji: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.2% per yearFrance: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.841% per yearMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 76% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.06% per yearGabon: 61% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.47% per yearUnited Kingdom: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.39% per yearGeorgia: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.46% per yearGhana: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.95% per yearGuinea: 63% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.45% per yearGambia, The: 80% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.89% per yearGuinea-Bissau: 68% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.82% per yearEquatorial Guinea: 68% of children aged 12-23 months, -5.85% per yearGreece: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.07% per yearGrenada: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.41% per yearGuatemala: 81% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.28% per yearGuyana: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 19.3% per yearHonduras: 75% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.75% per yearCroatia: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.4% per yearHaiti: 60% of children aged 12-23 months, -2.71% per yearHungary: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.51% per yearIndonesia: 78% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.11% per yearIndia: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.57% per yearIreland: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 12.3% per yearIran, Islamic Rep.: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, -2.83% per yearIraq: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, -2.16% per yearIceland: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.28% per yearIsrael: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.93% per yearItaly: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.54% per yearJamaica: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.0816% per yearJordan: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.83% per yearJapan: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.19% per yearKazakhstan: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.5% per yearKenya: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.63% per yearKyrgyz Republic: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 11.1% per yearCambodia: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.35% per yearKiribati: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.22% per yearSt. Kitts and Nevis: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.69% per yearKorea, Rep.: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.01% per yearKuwait: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.73% per yearLao PDR: 67% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.54% per yearLebanon: 49% of children aged 12-23 months, -7.08% per yearLiberia: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.02% per yearLibya: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 13.4% per yearSt. Lucia: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, -0.574% per yearSri Lanka: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.95% per yearLesotho: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.98% per yearLithuania: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.92% per yearLuxembourg: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.638% per yearLatvia: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.14% per yearMorocco: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.6% per yearMoldova: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.42% per yearMadagascar: 60% of children aged 12-23 months, 3% per yearMaldives: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.31% per yearMexico: 78% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.562% per yearMarshall Islands: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.28% per yearNorth Macedonia: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.49% per yearMali: 82% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.6% per yearMalta: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.96% per yearMyanmar: 71% of children aged 12-23 months, -2.01% per yearMontenegro: 81% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.74% per yearMongolia: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.84% per yearMozambique: 70% of children aged 12-23 months, -0.523% per yearMauritania: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.03% per yearMauritius: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.15% per yearMalawi: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.89% per yearMalaysia: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.17% per yearNamibia: 74% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.73% per yearNiger: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.01% per yearNigeria: 67% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.01% per yearNicaragua: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.92% per yearNetherlands: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.78% per yearNorway: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.09% per yearNepal: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.43% per yearNaoero: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.14% per yearNew Zealand: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.463% per yearOman: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.4% per yearPakistan: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.7% per yearPanama: 72% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.35% per yearPeru: 80% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.43% per yearPhilippines: 71% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.4% per yearPalau: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.29% per yearPapua New Guinea: 42% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.64% per yearPoland: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.57% per yearPortugal: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.86% per yearParaguay: 80% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.64% per yearWest Bank and Gaza: 88% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.34% per yearQatar: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.9% per yearRomania: 79% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.678% per yearRussian Federation: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 1% per yearRwanda: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 9.38% per yearSaudi Arabia: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.5% per yearSudan: 39% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.06% per yearSenegal: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.68% per yearSingapore: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.03% per yearSolomon Islands: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.62% per yearSierra Leone: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.61% per yearEl Salvador: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.91% per yearSan Marino: 88% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.402% per yearSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 70% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.99% per yearSerbia: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.03% per yearSao Tome and Principe: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.03% per yearSuriname: 69% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.79% per yearSlovak Republic: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.807% per yearSlovenia: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.06% per yearSweden: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.54% per yearEswatini: 84% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.19% per yearSeychelles: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.8% per yearSyrian Arab Republic: 73% of children aged 12-23 months, -0.202% per yearChad: 68% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.59% per yearTogo: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.31% per yearThailand: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.44% per yearTajikistan: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.4% per yearTurkmenistan: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.3% per yearTimor-Leste: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.98% per yearTonga: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.8% per yearTrinidad and Tobago: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, -0.788% per yearTunisia: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.49% per yearTurkiye: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.6% per yearTuvalu: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.64% per yearTanzania: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.85% per yearUganda: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.33% per yearUkraine: 88% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.82% per yearUruguay: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.78% per yearUnited States: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.16% per yearUzbekistan: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.7% per yearSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.39% per yearViet Nam: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.02% per yearVanuatu: 71% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.05% per yearSamoa: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.2% per yearSouth Africa: 74% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.11% per yearZambia: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.76% per yearZimbabwe: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.11% per yearCAFGNQGUYHTIIRLIRNIRQLBNLBYLCAPNG

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.0970.186186
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.0250.736186
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2270.002186
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1950.008186

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 186 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.129 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.173 (without LBN) to +0.247 (without IRL). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: LBN (-0.054).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific29+0.01
Europe & Central Asia50+0.18
Latin America & Caribbean31+0.05
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22+0.39
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.24

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third62+0.16
Middle third62+0.39
Richest third62+0.11

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians108+0.13
Muslims49+0.33

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.51
Never a European colony21+0.19
Spain20+0.40
United Kingdom63+0.04

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.222 after dropping 11 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = +0.134) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = +0.077). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.227for comparison
Within countries+0.125each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.134q = 0.000 · 192 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.077q = 0.125

6,506 country-years (one country in one year), 192 countries, 1990–2024, about 34 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 91% for DTP3 immunisation, 32% for GDP growth. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years GDP growth trails DTP3 immunisation →lag -10: r = 0.033 (n = 4,692)lag -9: r = 0.037 (n = 4,881)lag -8: r = 0.027 (n = 5,067)lag -7: r = 0.008 (n = 5,252)lag -6: r = 0.010 (n = 5,441)lag -5: r = 0.033 (n = 5,625)lag -4: r = 0.052 (n = 5,809)lag -3: r = 0.049 (n = 5,993)lag -2: r = 0.073 (n = 6,176)lag -1: r = 0.129 (n = 6,347)lag +0: r = 0.134 (n = 6,506)lag +1: r = 0.072 (n = 6,499)lag +2: r = 0.067 (n = 6,314)lag +3: r = 0.069 (n = 6,127)lag +4: r = 0.061 (n = 5,940)lag +5: r = 0.053 (n = 5,752)lag +6: r = 0.048 (n = 5,564)lag +7: r = 0.042 (n = 5,376)lag +8: r = 0.023 (n = 5,188)lag +9: r = 0.007 (n = 4,999)lag +10: r = 0.015 (n = 4,810)

Same year (lag 0): +0.134. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of children aged 12-23 months
% per year		Years
St. Vincent and the Grenadines VCT99%3.39%2024, 2025
Turkiye TUR99%3.6%2024, 2025
Tonga TON99%2.8%2024, 2025
Portugal PRT99%1.86%2024, 2025
Oman OMN99%2.4%2024, 2025
Naoero NRU99%2.14%2024, 2025
Maldives MDV99%6.31%2024, 2025
Luxembourg LUX99%0.638%2024, 2025
St. Lucia LCA99%-0.574%2024, 2025
Kuwait KWT99%2.73%2024, 2025
Japan JPN99%1.19%2024, 2025
Jamaica JAM99%0.0816%2024, 2025
Hungary HUN99%0.51%2024, 2025
Costa Rica CRI99%4.56%2024, 2025
Brunei Darussalam BRN99%0.67%2024, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

DTP3 immunisation

Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months)

WHO and UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Three doses of the diphtheria, tetanus and whooping cough (pertussis) vaccine, the standard measure of a routine vaccination system. Measles coverage is published the same way and moves with it almost exactly, so only one of the two is here.

GDP growth

GDP growth (annual %)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2022–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore DTP3 immunisation and GDP growth

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that DTP3 immunisation changes GDP growth, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with DTP3 immunisation or GDP growth