placestats

Food insecurity vs. Out of school, primary

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 148 countries, Food insecurity and Out of school, primary rise and fall together at r = +0.54 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.18, which could easily be chance (q = 0.43, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of food insecurity, 9.5% to 42.5% of population, out of school, primary is worse by 7.83% of primary-age children at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.74% of primary-age children.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.540p = 1.5e-12 · 148 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.180p = 0.029 · likely range [+0.02, +0.33]
p, allowing for regions0.231standard error 0.135 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.434across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Food insecurity · % of populationlink with income -0.83 · proxy
Out of school, primary · % of primary-age childrenlink with income -0.45 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Food insecurity · % of population →Out of school, primary · % of primary-age children →1.1%89.8%0.00387%41.8%Angola: 78.5% of population, 36.8% of primary-age childrenAlbania: 33% of population, 0.488% of primary-age childrenUnited Arab Emirates: 3.6% of population, 0.00387% of primary-age childrenArgentina: 33.8% of population, 0.735% of primary-age childrenArmenia: 7.8% of population, 1.08% of primary-age childrenAntigua and Barbuda: 13.5% of population, 1.71% of primary-age childrenAustralia: 13.8% of population, 0.124% of primary-age childrenAustria: 4.7% of population, 1.43% of primary-age childrenAzerbaijan: 14% of population, 0.0266% of primary-age childrenBurundi: 70.8% of population, 26.5% of primary-age childrenBelgium: 8.1% of population, 1.66% of primary-age childrenBenin: 65.6% of population, 9.61% of primary-age childrenBurkina Faso: 41.4% of population, 34.3% of primary-age childrenBulgaria: 11.6% of population, 5.9% of primary-age childrenBahamas, The: 17.2% of population, 15.9% of primary-age childrenBosnia and Herzegovina: 9.9% of population, 2.1% of primary-age childrenBelarus: 1.1% of population, 4.49% of primary-age childrenBelize: 45.5% of population, 10.7% of primary-age childrenBrazil: 13.5% of population, 2.19% of primary-age childrenBarbados: 31.1% of population, 17.6% of primary-age childrenBotswana: 53.9% of population, 0.535% of primary-age childrenCentral African Republic: 88.1% of population, 37.9% of primary-age childrenCanada: 10.2% of population, 4.99% of primary-age childrenSwitzerland: 2% of population, 0.143% of primary-age childrenChile: 19.2% of population, 2.12% of primary-age childrenCote d'Ivoire: 38.4% of population, 12.6% of primary-age childrenCameroon: 61.2% of population, 3.76% of primary-age childrenColombia: 27.8% of population, 7.32% of primary-age childrenComoros: 79.7% of population, 20.6% of primary-age childrenCabo Verde: 32.1% of population, 41.8% of primary-age childrenCosta Rica: 15.4% of population, 4.49% of primary-age childrenCyprus: 1.4% of population, 0.425% of primary-age childrenCzechia: 10% of population, 0.809% of primary-age childrenGermany: 4.1% of population, 0.274% of primary-age childrenDominica: 34.4% of population, 3.95% of primary-age childrenDenmark: 6.9% of population, 0.893% of primary-age childrenDominican Republic: 43.8% of population, 4.93% of primary-age childrenAlgeria: 17.6% of population, 1.57% of primary-age childrenEcuador: 33.3% of population, 4.72% of primary-age childrenEgypt, Arab Rep.: 30.8% of population, 3.51% of primary-age childrenSpain: 6.5% of population, 1.24% of primary-age childrenEstonia: 10.8% of population, 3.39% of primary-age childrenEthiopia: 61.4% of population, 22.5% of primary-age childrenFinland: 13.4% of population, 1.77% of primary-age childrenFiji: 29.2% of population, 2.39% of primary-age childrenFrance: 8.4% of population, 0.204% of primary-age childrenUnited Kingdom: 6.9% of population, 0.0698% of primary-age childrenGeorgia: 26.6% of population, 6.17% of primary-age childrenGhana: 44.5% of population, 4.77% of primary-age childrenGambia, The: 54.8% of population, 16.9% of primary-age childrenGuinea-Bissau: 62.5% of population, 30.5% of primary-age childrenGreece: 6.6% of population, 0.11% of primary-age childrenGrenada: 17.3% of population, 4.94% of primary-age childrenGuatemala: 48.8% of population, 8.43% of primary-age childrenGuyana: 25.5% of population, 18% of primary-age childrenHonduras: 41.3% of population, 26.6% of primary-age childrenCroatia: 6% of population, 1.81% of primary-age childrenHungary: 15.6% of population, 2.81% of primary-age childrenIndonesia: 4.5% of population, 0.877% of primary-age childrenIreland: 4.8% of population, 1.81% of primary-age childrenIran, Islamic Rep.: 38.8% of population, 0.103% of primary-age childrenIceland: 7.8% of population, 1.82% of primary-age childrenIsrael: 9.2% of population, 2.66% of primary-age childrenItaly: 1.7% of population, 2.06% of primary-age childrenJamaica: 56.4% of population, 4.34% of primary-age childrenJapan: 5.8% of population, 0.0684% of primary-age childrenKazakhstan: 2% of population, 7.91% of primary-age childrenKenya: 73.9% of population, 32.9% of primary-age childrenKyrgyz Republic: 7% of population, 2.96% of primary-age childrenCambodia: 40% of population, 3.69% of primary-age childrenKiribati: 42.9% of population, 8.71% of primary-age childrenKorea, Rep.: 5.4% of population, 0.0557% of primary-age childrenKuwait: 8.4% of population, 7.47% of primary-age childrenLao PDR: 35.6% of population, 10.4% of primary-age childrenLebanon: 42.4% of population, 22.5% of primary-age childrenLiberia: 80.8% of population, 38.3% of primary-age childrenSt. Lucia: 22.2% of population, 7.01% of primary-age childrenSri Lanka: 11.2% of population, 9.14% of primary-age childrenLesotho: 59.9% of population, 32.2% of primary-age childrenLithuania: 6.5% of population, 0.13% of primary-age childrenLuxembourg: 2.6% of population, 0.256% of primary-age childrenLatvia: 11.2% of population, 2.74% of primary-age childrenMoldova: 25.1% of population, 0.463% of primary-age childrenMadagascar: 72.6% of population, 3.4% of primary-age childrenMaldives: 13.4% of population, 0.946% of primary-age childrenMexico: 19.3% of population, 0.363% of primary-age childrenNorth Macedonia: 15.2% of population, 3.79% of primary-age childrenMali: 20.6% of population, 34% of primary-age childrenMalta: 9.2% of population, 2.64% of primary-age childrenMyanmar: 32.7% of population, 1.41% of primary-age childrenMontenegro: 10.4% of population, 0.218% of primary-age childrenMongolia: 4.8% of population, 8.56% of primary-age childrenMauritania: 66.3% of population, 11.3% of primary-age childrenMauritius: 31.1% of population, 0.785% of primary-age childrenMalawi: 81.7% of population, 2.09% of primary-age childrenMalaysia: 16.7% of population, 12% of primary-age childrenNamibia: 55.9% of population, 0.865% of primary-age childrenNiger: 50.9% of population, 40.4% of primary-age childrenNigeria: 74.8% of population, 24.3% of primary-age childrenNetherlands: 7.5% of population, 0.519% of primary-age childrenNorway: 7.8% of population, 1.38% of primary-age childrenNepal: 36.6% of population, 0.762% of primary-age childrenNaoero: 29.9% of population, 6.6% of primary-age childrenNew Zealand: 17.3% of population, 2.62% of primary-age childrenPakistan: 42.1% of population, 17.9% of primary-age childrenPeru: 41% of population, 0.156% of primary-age childrenPhilippines: 32.9% of population, 11.6% of primary-age childrenPalau: 28.1% of population, 1.33% of primary-age childrenPapua New Guinea: 57.3% of population, 4% of primary-age childrenPoland: 3.4% of population, 0.0917% of primary-age childrenPortugal: 11.9% of population, 0.508% of primary-age childrenParaguay: 26.2% of population, 13.3% of primary-age childrenWest Bank and Gaza: 27% of population, 9.56% of primary-age childrenRomania: 18.6% of population, 15.6% of primary-age childrenRussian Federation: 2.8% of population, 4.94% of primary-age childrenSenegal: 29.1% of population, 24.5% of primary-age childrenSingapore: 9.5% of population, 0.212% of primary-age childrenSierra Leone: 89.8% of population, 0.888% of primary-age childrenEl Salvador: 45.5% of population, 8.66% of primary-age childrenSerbia: 9.5% of population, 3.33% of primary-age childrenSao Tome and Principe: 54.6% of population, 2.88% of primary-age childrenSuriname: 35.8% of population, 16.2% of primary-age childrenSlovak Republic: 7.5% of population, 1.06% of primary-age childrenSlovenia: 8.2% of population, 1.45% of primary-age childrenSweden: 6.9% of population, 0.57% of primary-age childrenEswatini: 59% of population, 3.83% of primary-age childrenSeychelles: 14.3% of population, 6.8% of primary-age childrenChad: 66.3% of population, 24.8% of primary-age childrenTogo: 58.5% of population, 0.639% of primary-age childrenThailand: 5.4% of population, 0.817% of primary-age childrenTajikistan: 25.1% of population, 4.15% of primary-age childrenTimor-Leste: 53.7% of population, 6.88% of primary-age childrenTonga: 14.8% of population, 2.28% of primary-age childrenTrinidad and Tobago: 27.6% of population, 7.16% of primary-age childrenTunisia: 25.4% of population, 1.09% of primary-age childrenTanzania: 58% of population, 16.4% of primary-age childrenUganda: 54.6% of population, 4.12% of primary-age childrenUkraine: 32.5% of population, 12.9% of primary-age childrenUruguay: 16.2% of population, 0.0355% of primary-age childrenUnited States: 10.3% of population, 3.98% of primary-age childrenUzbekistan: 24.4% of population, 0.655% of primary-age childrenSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 33.3% of population, 0.59% of primary-age childrenViet Nam: 10.7% of population, 1.73% of primary-age childrenVanuatu: 23.3% of population, 2.53% of primary-age childrenSamoa: 18.6% of population, 1.81% of primary-age childrenSouth Africa: 20.7% of population, 6.06% of primary-age childrenZambia: 45.3% of population, 3.51% of primary-age childrenZimbabwe: 68.8% of population, 10.5% of primary-age childrenAGOCAFCHECPVCYPLBRLUXMDGMLIMWINERSLE

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5401.5e-12148
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5411.3e-12148
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1800.029148
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1980.016148

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 148 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.360 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.123 (without AGO) to +0.232 (without MLI). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: AGO (-0.057).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23+0.27
Europe & Central Asia46+0.26
Latin America & Caribbean26+0.15
Sub-Saharan Africa37-0.14

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third50+0.14
Middle third49+0.15
Richest third49+0.55

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians96+0.31
Muslims31-0.02

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France19-0.41
Never a European colony15+0.53
Spain14-0.32
United Kingdom49+0.24

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.200 after dropping 17 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 9years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.021, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose food insecurity moved did not tend to see their out of school, primary move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.180for comparison
Within countries-0.001each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.021q = 0.808 · 101 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.032q = 0.573
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

806 country-years (one country in one year), 101 countries, 2015–2023, about 8 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 2% for Food insecurity, 8% for Out of school, primary. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+5years Out of school, primary trails Food insecurity →lag -10: r = 0.067 (n = 663)lag -9: r = 0.088 (n = 665)lag -8: r = 0.095 (n = 678)lag -7: r = 0.088 (n = 712)lag -6: r = 0.083 (n = 738)lag -5: r = 0.067 (n = 771)lag -4: r = 0.027 (n = 777)lag -3: r = -0.013 (n = 787)lag -2: r = -0.004 (n = 801)lag -1: r = -0.021 (n = 807)lag +0: r = -0.021 (n = 806)lag +1: r = -0.117 (n = 786)lag +2: r = -0.141 (n = 677)lag +3: r = -0.012 (n = 550)lag +4: r = -0.036 (n = 413)lag +5: r = 0.043 (n = 238)

Same year (lag 0): -0.021. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.14 at lag +2) is higher than the same-year one by 0.12. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 16 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


% of population
% of primary-age children		Years
Sierra Leone SLE89.8%0.888%2023, 2015
Central African Republic CAF88.1%37.9%2022, 2012
Malawi MWI81.7%2.09%2023, 2022
Liberia LBR80.8%38.3%2023, 2022
Comoros COM79.7%20.6%2023, 2024
Angola AGO78.5%36.8%2021, 2023
Nigeria NGA74.8%24.3%2023
Kenya KEN73.9%32.9%2023, 2022
Madagascar MDG72.6%3.4%2023, 2024
Burundi BDI70.8%26.5%2023, 2025
Zimbabwe ZWE68.8%10.5%2023, 2024
Chad TCD66.3%24.8%2023, 2024
Mauritania MRT66.3%11.3%2023, 2024
Benin BEN65.6%9.61%2023, 2022
Guinea-Bissau GNB62.5%30.5%2022, 2010

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Food insecurity

Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population (%)

Food and Agriculture Organization, Food Insecurity Experience Scale · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Asked of people, in a survey about running out of food, and reported as a three-year average from 2015. It is the one measure of hunger here that comes from what people say they went through, rather than from a model.

Out of school, primary

Children out of school (% of primary school age)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Children of primary-school age not enrolled at any level. Treated as measuring the same thing as gross primary enrolment, which is on the site. They are two ways of asking whether children are in school, so their agreement is not a finding.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Food insecurity and Out of school, primary

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Food insecurity changes Out of school, primary, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Food insecurity or Out of school, primary