placestats

Electoral democracy vs. Muslim share

Fades after adjusting for income

A country is not a person. Countries where more people are counted as belonging to this group also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does not follow that the people in the group are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. It is the most common misuse of this kind of data. Religion also varies strongly with region, history and national income, so much of what looks religious here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures are for. The religion shares are estimates for two years only, and the survey questions are asked in rounds that can be ten years apart.

Across 168 countries, Electoral democracy and Muslim share rise and fall together at r = -0.54 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = -0.50, which could easily be chance (q = 0.090, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike).

Comparing countries across the middle half of muslim share, 0.338% to 64.9% of population, electoral democracy is worse by 0.235 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.197 points.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.537p = 6.0e-14 · 168 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.495p = 1.0e-11 · likely range [-0.60, -0.37]
p, allowing for regions0.025standard error 0.167 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.090across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Electoral democracy · index (0-1)link with income +0.49 · moderate
Muslim share · % of populationlink with income -0.14 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Electoral democracy · index (0-1) →Muslim share · % of population →0.0160.9130.00186%99.9%Afghanistan: 0.069 index (0-1), 99.9% of populationAngola: 0.344 index (0-1), 0.256% of populationAlbania: 0.484 index (0-1), 74.5% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 0.104 index (0-1), 72.9% of populationArgentina: 0.69 index (0-1), 0.929% of populationArmenia: 0.614 index (0-1), 0.267% of populationAustralia: 0.844 index (0-1), 3.5% of populationAustria: 0.839 index (0-1), 8.3% of populationAzerbaijan: 0.171 index (0-1), 94.7% of populationBurundi: 0.185 index (0-1), 2.99% of populationBelgium: 0.889 index (0-1), 6.81% of populationBenin: 0.493 index (0-1), 31.4% of populationBurkina Faso: 0.134 index (0-1), 67.4% of populationBangladesh: 0.195 index (0-1), 91.1% of populationBulgaria: 0.599 index (0-1), 10.3% of populationBahrain: 0.139 index (0-1), 74% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.498 index (0-1), 53.6% of populationBelarus: 0.163 index (0-1), 0.262% of populationBolivia: 0.605 index (0-1), 0.0098% of populationBrazil: 0.784 index (0-1), 0.0177% of populationBarbados: 0.797 index (0-1), 0.707% of populationBhutan: 0.566 index (0-1), 0.222% of populationBotswana: 0.665 index (0-1), 0.33% of populationCentral African Republic: 0.293 index (0-1), 6.24% of populationCanada: 0.84 index (0-1), 4.89% of populationSwitzerland: 0.882 index (0-1), 6.08% of populationChile: 0.839 index (0-1), 0.067% of populationChina: 0.072 index (0-1), 1.82% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 0.394 index (0-1), 46.3% of populationCameroon: 0.26 index (0-1), 25.2% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.306 index (0-1), 1.27% of populationCongo, Rep.: 0.243 index (0-1), 1.46% of populationColombia: 0.679 index (0-1), 0.00393% of populationComoros: 0.293 index (0-1), 98.3% of populationCabo Verde: 0.745 index (0-1), 0.313% of populationCosta Rica: 0.862 index (0-1), 0.0252% of populationCyprus: 0.773 index (0-1), 24.4% of populationCzechia: 0.849 index (0-1), 0.327% of populationGermany: 0.828 index (0-1), 6.55% of populationDjibouti: 0.25 index (0-1), 97.7% of populationDenmark: 0.913 index (0-1), 4.22% of populationDominican Republic: 0.735 index (0-1), 0.0248% of populationAlgeria: 0.265 index (0-1), 98.4% of populationEcuador: 0.607 index (0-1), 0.0181% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.187 index (0-1), 95.2% of populationSpain: 0.822 index (0-1), 3.58% of populationEstonia: 0.887 index (0-1), 0.598% of populationEthiopia: 0.257 index (0-1), 36.2% of populationFinland: 0.852 index (0-1), 1.61% of populationFiji: 0.507 index (0-1), 5.78% of populationFrance: 0.865 index (0-1), 9.1% of populationGabon: 0.302 index (0-1), 8.64% of populationUnited Kingdom: 0.772 index (0-1), 6.37% of populationGeorgia: 0.401 index (0-1), 10.5% of populationGhana: 0.711 index (0-1), 19.9% of populationGuinea: 0.187 index (0-1), 86.8% of populationGambia, The: 0.641 index (0-1), 97% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 0.252 index (0-1), 56% of populationEquatorial Guinea: 0.172 index (0-1), 4.05% of populationGreece: 0.741 index (0-1), 5.12% of populationGuatemala: 0.637 index (0-1), 0.00271% of populationGuyana: 0.515 index (0-1), 6.5% of populationHong Kong SAR, China: 0.151 index (0-1), 0.268% of populationHonduras: 0.511 index (0-1), 0.00277% of populationCroatia: 0.686 index (0-1), 1.37% of populationHaiti: 0.238 index (0-1), 0.00186% of populationHungary: 0.421 index (0-1), 0.139% of populationIndonesia: 0.462 index (0-1), 87% of populationIndia: 0.377 index (0-1), 15.2% of populationIreland: 0.887 index (0-1), 1.69% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.159 index (0-1), 99.8% of populationIraq: 0.369 index (0-1), 99.5% of populationIceland: 0.807 index (0-1), 1.21% of populationIsrael: 0.694 index (0-1), 14.7% of populationItaly: 0.745 index (0-1), 4.42% of populationJamaica: 0.805 index (0-1), 0.016% of populationJordan: 0.282 index (0-1), 97.1% of populationJapan: 0.819 index (0-1), 0.17% of populationKazakhstan: 0.259 index (0-1), 77.9% of populationKenya: 0.563 index (0-1), 10.9% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 0.313 index (0-1), 91.7% of populationCambodia: 0.183 index (0-1), 2.04% of populationKorea, Rep.: 0.819 index (0-1), 0.31% of populationKuwait: 0.138 index (0-1), 80.2% of populationLao PDR: 0.135 index (0-1), 0.0222% of populationLebanon: 0.419 index (0-1), 67.8% of populationLiberia: 0.597 index (0-1), 12.7% of populationLibya: 0.193 index (0-1), 99% of populationSri Lanka: 0.783 index (0-1), 10.2% of populationLesotho: 0.661 index (0-1), 0.218% of populationLithuania: 0.786 index (0-1), 0.0892% of populationLuxembourg: 0.869 index (0-1), 1.83% of populationLatvia: 0.834 index (0-1), 0.67% of populationMorocco: 0.259 index (0-1), 99.7% of populationMoldova: 0.553 index (0-1), 0.181% of populationMadagascar: 0.361 index (0-1), 1.16% of populationMaldives: 0.556 index (0-1), 94.1% of populationMexico: 0.469 index (0-1), 0.00629% of populationNorth Macedonia: 0.562 index (0-1), 34.7% of populationMali: 0.164 index (0-1), 94.1% of populationMalta: 0.783 index (0-1), 3.64% of populationMyanmar: 0.08 index (0-1), 3.35% of populationMontenegro: 0.636 index (0-1), 21.3% of populationMongolia: 0.535 index (0-1), 3.53% of populationMozambique: 0.279 index (0-1), 19.4% of populationMauritania: 0.328 index (0-1), 99.2% of populationMauritius: 0.738 index (0-1), 17.5% of populationMalawi: 0.557 index (0-1), 11.6% of populationMalaysia: 0.504 index (0-1), 64.1% of populationNamibia: 0.633 index (0-1), 0.119% of populationNiger: 0.227 index (0-1), 98.1% of populationNigeria: 0.505 index (0-1), 56.1% of populationNicaragua: 0.151 index (0-1), 0.00459% of populationNetherlands: 0.832 index (0-1), 5.5% of populationNorway: 0.89 index (0-1), 4.11% of populationNepal: 0.656 index (0-1), 5.08% of populationNew Zealand: 0.849 index (0-1), 1.36% of populationOman: 0.175 index (0-1), 81.8% of populationPakistan: 0.302 index (0-1), 96.5% of populationPanama: 0.728 index (0-1), 0.0531% of populationPeru: 0.667 index (0-1), 0.0216% of populationPhilippines: 0.392 index (0-1), 6.46% of populationPapua New Guinea: 0.467 index (0-1), 0.0748% of populationPoland: 0.768 index (0-1), 0.00732% of populationPortugal: 0.822 index (0-1), 0.409% of populationParaguay: 0.581 index (0-1), 0.0113% of populationQatar: 0.034 index (0-1), 75.9% of populationRomania: 0.605 index (0-1), 0.356% of populationRussian Federation: 0.17 index (0-1), 8.19% of populationRwanda: 0.193 index (0-1), 1.81% of populationSaudi Arabia: 0.016 index (0-1), 92.7% of populationSudan: 0.13 index (0-1), 98.9% of populationSenegal: 0.633 index (0-1), 97.6% of populationSingapore: 0.434 index (0-1), 16.1% of populationSolomon Islands: 0.696 index (0-1), 0.34% of populationSierra Leone: 0.471 index (0-1), 80.1% of populationEl Salvador: 0.321 index (0-1), 0.0035% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.165 index (0-1), 99.8% of populationSerbia: 0.3 index (0-1), 4.42% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 0.632 index (0-1), 0.0915% of populationSuriname: 0.781 index (0-1), 13.1% of populationSlovak Republic: 0.733 index (0-1), 0.0548% of populationSlovenia: 0.692 index (0-1), 1.61% of populationSweden: 0.889 index (0-1), 8.1% of populationEswatini: 0.128 index (0-1), 0.136% of populationSeychelles: 0.76 index (0-1), 0.893% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 0.128 index (0-1), 94.2% of populationChad: 0.242 index (0-1), 56.4% of populationTogo: 0.351 index (0-1), 16.1% of populationThailand: 0.424 index (0-1), 4.51% of populationTajikistan: 0.158 index (0-1), 98.9% of populationTurkmenistan: 0.148 index (0-1), 94.3% of populationTimor-Leste: 0.736 index (0-1), 0.257% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 0.786 index (0-1), 5.46% of populationTunisia: 0.395 index (0-1), 99.3% of populationTurkiye: 0.293 index (0-1), 97.1% of populationTanzania: 0.365 index (0-1), 29.9% of populationUganda: 0.253 index (0-1), 11.4% of populationUkraine: 0.386 index (0-1), 0.568% of populationUruguay: 0.862 index (0-1), 0.0893% of populationUnited States: 0.735 index (0-1), 1.19% of populationUzbekistan: 0.218 index (0-1), 95.6% of populationViet Nam: 0.146 index (0-1), 0.0721% of populationVanuatu: 0.729 index (0-1), 0.0193% of populationKosovo: 0.631 index (0-1), 94.3% of populationSouth Africa: 0.743 index (0-1), 1.6% of populationZambia: 0.497 index (0-1), 0.511% of populationZimbabwe: 0.268 index (0-1), 0.529% of populationAFGCHNDNKESTGMBIRLMMRSAUSDNSENSWZXKX

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5376.0e-14168
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.4191.7e-8168
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.4951.0e-11168
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3911.7e-7168

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 168 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.042 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.514 (without GMB) to -0.479 (without SAU). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GMB (-0.019).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific21-0.03
Europe & Central Asia49-0.33
Latin America & Caribbean23-0.03
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan21-0.82
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.18

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third56-0.33
Middle third56-0.42
Richest third56-0.79

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians99-0.09
Muslims48-0.18

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.13
Never a European colony21-0.75
Spain19-0.24
United Kingdom49-0.59

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.495 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


index (0-1)
% of population		Years
Denmark DNK0.9134.22%2025, 2020
Norway NOR0.894.11%2025, 2020
Sweden SWE0.8898.1%2025, 2020
Belgium BEL0.8896.81%2025, 2020
Ireland IRL0.8871.69%2025, 2020
Estonia EST0.8870.598%2025, 2020
Switzerland CHE0.8826.08%2025, 2020
Luxembourg LUX0.8691.83%2025, 2020
France FRA0.8659.1%2025, 2020
Uruguay URY0.8620.0893%2025, 2020
Costa Rica CRI0.8620.0252%2025, 2020
Finland FIN0.8521.61%2025, 2020
New Zealand NZL0.8491.36%2025, 2020
Czechia CZE0.8490.327%2025, 2020
Australia AUS0.8443.5%2025, 2020

Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project
Pew Research Center, Religious Composition by Country, 2010-2020. Pew Research Center bears no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations of the data presented here.
One of these measures is published under a licence that forbids changes. Values are shown exactly as published and must not be republished in a changed or rescaled form.

Sources

Electoral democracy

Electoral democracy index (polyarchy)

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Based on political scientist Robert Dahl's idea of "polyarchy": are leaders chosen in free and fair elections, with freedom of speech, freedom to form groups, and the vote for nearly all adults? It is the base index that most other V-Dem measures are built on.

Muslim share

Share of the population identifying as Muslim

Pew Research Center · via Our World in Data · Pew Research Center terms of use, excerpts with attribution · updated decennial · comparable from 2010 only

The second largest religion. The three religion shares are parts of one total. So for any pair of them, more of one means less of the others. They are built from the same numbers, so they are bound to match, and the site flags this. Hindu, Buddhist, folk and other religions are not included, so that what is taken from Pew's dataset stays a small excerpt of it. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2020–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Electoral democracy and Muslim share

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Electoral democracy changes Muslim share, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Electoral democracy or Muslim share