placestats

Education spending vs. Employment in agriculture

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 168 countries, Education spending and Employment in agriculture rise and fall together at r = -0.29 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.21, q = 0.024, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of education spending, 3.09% to 5.25% of GDP, employment in agriculture is 7.62% of employment lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.01% of employment.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.286p = 0.000 · 168 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.206p = 0.008 · likely range [-0.35, -0.06]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.036 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.024across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Education spending · % of GDPlink with income +0.12 · independent
Employment in agriculture · % of employmentlink with income -0.86 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Education spending · % of GDP →Employment in agriculture · % of employment →0.000008%9.08%0.0954%85.3%Afghanistan: 4.34% of GDP, 51.6% of employmentAngola: 2.51% of GDP, 51.9% of employmentAlbania: 3.09% of GDP, 30.8% of employmentUnited Arab Emirates: 3.89% of GDP, 1.44% of employmentArgentina: 5% of GDP, 7% of employmentArmenia: 2.44% of GDP, 27% of employmentAustralia: 5.06% of GDP, 2.18% of employmentAustria: 5.28% of GDP, 2.77% of employmentAzerbaijan: 3.66% of GDP, 34.2% of employmentBurundi: 4.5% of GDP, 85.3% of employmentBelgium: 6.28% of GDP, 0.985% of employmentBenin: 3.23% of GDP, 40.2% of employmentBurkina Faso: 5.33% of GDP, 51.8% of employmentBangladesh: 2.03% of GDP, 44.3% of employmentBulgaria: 4.5% of GDP, 4.69% of employmentBahrain: 1.89% of GDP, 0.834% of employmentBahamas, The: 2.74% of GDP, 0.775% of employmentBosnia and Herzegovina: 3.25% of GDP, 16.7% of employmentBelarus: 5.05% of GDP, 9.48% of employmentBelize: 4.62% of GDP, 16.1% of employmentBolivia: 7.54% of GDP, 24.7% of employmentBrazil: 5.62% of GDP, 7.63% of employmentBarbados: 3.56% of GDP, 1.25% of employmentBrunei Darussalam: 4.43% of GDP, 1.2% of employmentBhutan: 5.85% of GDP, 42.4% of employmentBotswana: 8.06% of GDP, 18% of employmentCentral African Republic: 1.83% of GDP, 66.1% of employmentCanada: 4.84% of GDP, 1.1% of employmentSwitzerland: 4.86% of GDP, 2.24% of employmentChile: 4.91% of GDP, 6.07% of employmentChina: 3.9% of GDP, 21.7% of employmentCote d'Ivoire: 3.61% of GDP, 45.4% of employmentCameroon: 2.84% of GDP, 41.9% of employmentCongo, Dem. Rep.: 2.84% of GDP, 58.5% of employmentCongo, Rep.: 3.34% of GDP, 36.4% of employmentColombia: 5.26% of GDP, 14.2% of employmentComoros: 2.34% of GDP, 33.6% of employmentCabo Verde: 4.35% of GDP, 9.25% of employmentCosta Rica: 5.31% of GDP, 11.5% of employmentCyprus: 4.74% of GDP, 2.15% of employmentCzechia: 4.3% of GDP, 2.71% of employmentGermany: 5.24% of GDP, 1.07% of employmentDjibouti: 3.75% of GDP, 1.15% of employmentDenmark: 6.36% of GDP, 1.62% of employmentDominican Republic: 3.76% of GDP, 7.01% of employmentAlgeria: 8.98% of GDP, 9.48% of employmentEcuador: 3.69% of GDP, 32.5% of employmentSpain: 4.59% of GDP, 3.37% of employmentEstonia: 5.21% of GDP, 2.96% of employmentEthiopia: 2.3% of GDP, 60.1% of employmentFinland: 6.38% of GDP, 3.49% of employmentFiji: 4.25% of GDP, 35.6% of employmentFrance: 5.32% of GDP, 2.33% of employmentGabon: 2.32% of GDP, 28.9% of employmentUnited Kingdom: 5.91% of GDP, 0.851% of employmentGeorgia: 3.98% of GDP, 34% of employmentGhana: 2.91% of GDP, 34.6% of employmentGuinea: 1.72% of GDP, 47.4% of employmentGambia, The: 2.81% of GDP, 27.6% of employmentGuinea-Bissau: 2.01% of GDP, 61.1% of employmentGreece: 3.38% of GDP, 10.7% of employmentGuatemala: 3.08% of GDP, 29.1% of employmentGuyana: 4.45% of GDP, 12.2% of employmentHong Kong SAR, China: 3.81% of GDP, 0.182% of employmentHonduras: 4.55% of GDP, 22.4% of employmentCroatia: 4.09% of GDP, 4.33% of employmentHaiti: 0.965% of GDP, 46.6% of employmentHungary: 3.8% of GDP, 4.11% of employmentIndonesia: 1.28% of GDP, 27.3% of employmentIndia: 4.1% of GDP, 41.6% of employmentIreland: 2.9% of GDP, 3.85% of employmentIran, Islamic Rep.: 2.82% of GDP, 13.6% of employmentIceland: 7.31% of GDP, 3.61% of employmentIsrael: 5.93% of GDP, 0.76% of employmentItaly: 4.07% of GDP, 3.35% of employmentJamaica: 5.51% of GDP, 13.9% of employmentJordan: 3.23% of GDP, 3.12% of employmentJapan: 3.34% of GDP, 2.81% of employmentKazakhstan: 4.86% of GDP, 11.3% of employmentKenya: 4.02% of GDP, 45.8% of employmentKyrgyz Republic: 6.83% of GDP, 15.4% of employmentCambodia: 2.18% of GDP, 33.4% of employmentKorea, Rep.: 5.41% of GDP, 5.1% of employmentKuwait: 6.44% of GDP, 1.89% of employmentLao PDR: 1.23% of GDP, 68.6% of employmentLebanon: 1.22% of GDP, 3.51% of employmentLiberia: 2.27% of GDP, 41.1% of employmentSt. Lucia: 3.85% of GDP, 7.47% of employmentSri Lanka: 1.83% of GDP, 25.9% of employmentLesotho: 6.62% of GDP, 30.9% of employmentLithuania: 4.25% of GDP, 4.66% of employmentLuxembourg: 3.74% of GDP, 0.878% of employmentLatvia: 4.32% of GDP, 6.66% of employmentMacao SAR, China: 3.5% of GDP, 0.374% of employmentMorocco: 6.02% of GDP, 27.9% of employmentMoldova: 6.56% of GDP, 50.5% of employmentMadagascar: 3.05% of GDP, 69.2% of employmentMaldives: 5.17% of GDP, 11.3% of employmentMexico: 4.06% of GDP, 11.4% of employmentMali: 4.18% of GDP, 63% of employmentMalta: 4.71% of GDP, 0.877% of employmentMyanmar: 2% of GDP, 45% of employmentMongolia: 5.21% of GDP, 27% of employmentMozambique: 5.98% of GDP, 73% of employmentMauritania: 7.61% of GDP, 32.1% of employmentMauritius: 4.25% of GDP, 4.71% of employmentMalawi: 2.75% of GDP, 65% of employmentMalaysia: 3.51% of GDP, 9.18% of employmentNamibia: 9.08% of GDP, 22.3% of employmentNiger: 4.07% of GDP, 73% of employmentNigeria: 0.319% of GDP, 33.5% of employmentNicaragua: 2.87% of GDP, 30.5% of employmentNetherlands: 5.18% of GDP, 1.7% of employmentNorway: 5.43% of GDP, 2.5% of employmentNepal: 3.69% of GDP, 22.9% of employmentNew Zealand: 5.21% of GDP, 5.42% of employmentOman: 4.38% of GDP, 5.95% of employmentPakistan: 1.95% of GDP, 36.2% of employmentPanama: 2.47% of GDP, 16% of employmentPeru: 4.36% of GDP, 23.1% of employmentPhilippines: 3.97% of GDP, 20.5% of employmentPapua New Guinea: 0.782% of GDP, 36.9% of employmentPoland: 4.31% of GDP, 6.22% of employmentPuerto Rico (US): 4.27% of GDP, 1.14% of employmentPortugal: 4.55% of GDP, 2.78% of employmentParaguay: 3.53% of GDP, 16% of employmentWest Bank and Gaza: 5.43% of GDP, 6.34% of employmentQatar: 3.23% of GDP, 1.62% of employmentRomania: 3.28% of GDP, 10.9% of employmentRussian Federation: 4.16% of GDP, 5.11% of employmentRwanda: 4.61% of GDP, 35.1% of employmentSaudi Arabia: 4.48% of GDP, 2.5% of employmentSenegal: 6.16% of GDP, 29.6% of employmentSingapore: 2.19% of GDP, 0.0954% of employmentSolomon Islands: 8.29% of GDP, 42.5% of employmentSierra Leone: 2.62% of GDP, 44.5% of employmentEl Salvador: 3.32% of GDP, 13.9% of employmentSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.000008% of GDP, 30% of employmentSerbia: 3.4% of GDP, 18% of employmentSao Tome and Principe: 5.03% of GDP, 12.1% of employmentSuriname: 2.87% of GDP, 6.98% of employmentSlovak Republic: 4.66% of GDP, 2.16% of employmentSlovenia: 5.28% of GDP, 3.66% of employmentSweden: 7.32% of GDP, 1.77% of employmentEswatini: 6.03% of GDP, 14.5% of employmentChad: 3.2% of GDP, 71.7% of employmentTogo: 4.14% of GDP, 37.6% of employmentThailand: 2.52% of GDP, 28.6% of employmentTajikistan: 5.44% of GDP, 43.3% of employmentTurkmenistan: 4.29% of GDP, 21.9% of employmentTimor-Leste: 5.24% of GDP, 46% of employmentTonga: 5.31% of GDP, 23.6% of employmentTrinidad and Tobago: 3.23% of GDP, 4.49% of employmentTunisia: 6.73% of GDP, 12.5% of employmentTurkiye: 3.1% of GDP, 14.2% of employmentTanzania: 3.16% of GDP, 64.6% of employmentUganda: 2.56% of GDP, 64.9% of employmentUkraine: 5.14% of GDP, 14.1% of employmentUruguay: 4.76% of GDP, 8.07% of employmentUnited States: 5.42% of GDP, 1.52% of employmentUzbekistan: 5.47% of GDP, 25.2% of employmentSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 6.46% of GDP, 9.07% of employmentViet Nam: 2.89% of GDP, 25% of employmentVanuatu: 7.64% of GDP, 44.5% of employmentSamoa: 5.46% of GDP, 26.9% of employmentSouth Africa: 6.02% of GDP, 5.41% of employmentZambia: 4.07% of GDP, 54.5% of employmentZimbabwe: 0.385% of GDP, 54.3% of employmentBDIBHRCAFDZALAOLBNMOZNAMSGPSLBSWEZWE

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.2860.000168
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.2969.7e-5168
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2060.008168
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1800.020168

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 168 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.080 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.247 (without SOM) to -0.178 (without LAO). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SOM (-0.041).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific25-0.42
Europe & Central Asia46-0.22
Latin America & Caribbean28-0.20
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan18-0.01
Sub-Saharan Africa43-0.17

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third56-0.25
Middle third56-0.07
Richest third56-0.32

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians102-0.23
Muslims44-0.12

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24-0.22
Never a European colony21-0.30
Spain18-0.19
United Kingdom51-0.22

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.201 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.052, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose education spending moved did not tend to see their employment in agriculture move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.206for comparison
Within countries-0.130each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.052q = 0.435 · 175 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.005q = 0.924
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,688 country-years (one country in one year), 175 countries, 1991–2025, about 21 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 25% for Education spending, 4% for Employment in agriculture. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Employment in agriculture trails Education spending →lag -10: r = 0.047 (n = 2,954)lag -9: r = 0.044 (n = 3,065)lag -8: r = 0.048 (n = 3,177)lag -7: r = 0.032 (n = 3,258)lag -6: r = 0.015 (n = 3,292)lag -5: r = -0.011 (n = 3,365)lag -4: r = -0.040 (n = 3,446)lag -3: r = -0.048 (n = 3,511)lag -2: r = -0.054 (n = 3,582)lag -1: r = -0.059 (n = 3,637)lag +0: r = -0.052 (n = 3,688)lag +1: r = -0.048 (n = 3,733)lag +2: r = -0.044 (n = 3,694)lag +3: r = -0.036 (n = 3,586)lag +4: r = -0.024 (n = 3,432)lag +5: r = -0.010 (n = 3,286)lag +6: r = -0.013 (n = 3,135)lag +7: r = -0.003 (n = 2,971)lag +8: r = 0.010 (n = 2,816)lag +9: r = 0.022 (n = 2,651)lag +10: r = 0.017 (n = 2,501)

Same year (lag 0): -0.052. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of GDP
% of employment		Years
Namibia NAM9.08%22.3%2024, 2025
Algeria DZA8.98%9.48%2024, 2025
Solomon Islands SLB8.29%42.5%2023, 2025
Botswana BWA8.06%18%2020, 2025
Vanuatu VUT7.64%44.5%2024, 2025
Mauritania MRT7.61%32.1%2024, 2025
Bolivia BOL7.54%24.7%2024, 2025
Sweden SWE7.32%1.77%2022, 2025
Iceland ISL7.31%3.61%2022, 2025
Kyrgyz Republic KGZ6.83%15.4%2023, 2025
Tunisia TUN6.73%12.5%2023, 2025
Lesotho LSO6.62%30.9%2024, 2025
Moldova MDA6.56%50.5%2023, 2025
St. Vincent and the Grenadines VCT6.46%9.07%2023, 2025
Kuwait KWT6.44%1.89%2024, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Education spending

Government expenditure on education, total (% of GDP)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Employment in agriculture

Employment in agriculture (% of total employment)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Estimated with a model by the ILO. The classic measure of a country moving from farming to industry and services. It is one of the measures most closely linked to income on the site. No "better" direction is set, because a farming country is not doing badly by farming.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2013–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Education spending and Employment in agriculture

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Education spending changes Employment in agriculture, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Education spending or Employment in agriculture