placestats

Education spending vs. Government consumption

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 166 countries, Education spending and Government consumption rise and fall together at r = +0.65 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.64, q = 0.0025, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of government consumption, 12.2% to 20.5% of GDP, education spending is 1.23% of GDP higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 1.23% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.645p = 6.2e-21 · 166 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.644p = 1.1e-20 · likely range [+0.54, +0.73]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.098 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.003across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Education spending · % of GDPlink with income +0.12 · independent
Government consumption · % of GDPlink with income +0.28 · independent

Neither of these is closely tied to national income, so adjusting for income is a real test here, not a formality.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Education spending · % of GDP →Government consumption · % of GDP →0.000008%16.4%2.56%60.6%Aruba: 3.62% of GDP, 17.9% of GDPAfghanistan: 4.34% of GDP, 23.6% of GDPAngola: 2.51% of GDP, 15.8% of GDPAlbania: 3.09% of GDP, 12.8% of GDPUnited Arab Emirates: 3.89% of GDP, 12.2% of GDPArgentina: 5% of GDP, 14.9% of GDPArmenia: 2.44% of GDP, 10.2% of GDPAustralia: 5.06% of GDP, 23.1% of GDPAustria: 5.28% of GDP, 21.9% of GDPAzerbaijan: 3.66% of GDP, 15.5% of GDPBurundi: 4.5% of GDP, 20.6% of GDPBelgium: 6.28% of GDP, 24% of GDPBenin: 3.23% of GDP, 8.87% of GDPBurkina Faso: 5.33% of GDP, 17.8% of GDPBangladesh: 2.03% of GDP, 5.8% of GDPBulgaria: 4.5% of GDP, 20.8% of GDPBahrain: 1.89% of GDP, 14.1% of GDPBahamas, The: 2.74% of GDP, 12.9% of GDPBosnia and Herzegovina: 3.25% of GDP, 20.3% of GDPBelarus: 5.05% of GDP, 18.9% of GDPBelize: 4.62% of GDP, 15.9% of GDPBermuda: 1.87% of GDP, 10.7% of GDPBolivia: 7.54% of GDP, 16.5% of GDPBrazil: 5.62% of GDP, 19.1% of GDPBrunei Darussalam: 4.43% of GDP, 23.8% of GDPBhutan: 5.85% of GDP, 20% of GDPBotswana: 8.06% of GDP, 31.5% of GDPCentral African Republic: 1.83% of GDP, 10.3% of GDPCanada: 4.84% of GDP, 21.9% of GDPSwitzerland: 4.86% of GDP, 12% of GDPChile: 4.91% of GDP, 15.1% of GDPChina: 3.9% of GDP, 16.7% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 3.61% of GDP, 8.71% of GDPCameroon: 2.84% of GDP, 11.1% of GDPCongo, Dem. Rep.: 2.84% of GDP, 15.9% of GDPCongo, Rep.: 3.34% of GDP, 14.9% of GDPColombia: 5.26% of GDP, 15.5% of GDPComoros: 2.34% of GDP, 9.01% of GDPCabo Verde: 4.35% of GDP, 22.9% of GDPCosta Rica: 5.31% of GDP, 14% of GDPCuracao: 5.44% of GDP, 14.5% of GDPCayman Islands: 1.57% of GDP, 2.56% of GDPCyprus: 4.74% of GDP, 18.5% of GDPCzechia: 4.3% of GDP, 20% of GDPGermany: 5.24% of GDP, 22.5% of GDPDjibouti: 3.75% of GDP, 15% of GDPDenmark: 6.36% of GDP, 23.2% of GDPDominican Republic: 3.76% of GDP, 11.7% of GDPAlgeria: 8.98% of GDP, 18.3% of GDPEcuador: 3.69% of GDP, 12.8% of GDPSpain: 4.59% of GDP, 19.2% of GDPEstonia: 5.21% of GDP, 21.5% of GDPEthiopia: 2.3% of GDP, 5.84% of GDPFinland: 6.38% of GDP, 26.1% of GDPFiji: 4.25% of GDP, 18.9% of GDPFrance: 5.32% of GDP, 24.4% of GDPGabon: 2.32% of GDP, 11.2% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 5.91% of GDP, 21.2% of GDPGeorgia: 3.98% of GDP, 13.8% of GDPGhana: 2.91% of GDP, 4.8% of GDPGuinea: 1.72% of GDP, 16.7% of GDPGambia, The: 2.81% of GDP, 10.2% of GDPGuinea-Bissau: 2.01% of GDP, 15.5% of GDPGreece: 3.38% of GDP, 18.2% of GDPGuatemala: 3.08% of GDP, 11.5% of GDPHong Kong SAR, China: 3.81% of GDP, 12.6% of GDPHonduras: 4.55% of GDP, 15.2% of GDPCroatia: 4.09% of GDP, 24.3% of GDPHaiti: 0.965% of GDP, 5.53% of GDPHungary: 3.8% of GDP, 20.8% of GDPIndonesia: 1.28% of GDP, 7.53% of GDPIndia: 4.1% of GDP, 10.8% of GDPIreland: 2.9% of GDP, 11.2% of GDPIran, Islamic Rep.: 2.82% of GDP, 13.3% of GDPIceland: 7.31% of GDP, 26.1% of GDPIsrael: 5.93% of GDP, 25% of GDPItaly: 4.07% of GDP, 18.3% of GDPJapan: 3.34% of GDP, 20.1% of GDPKazakhstan: 4.86% of GDP, 10.8% of GDPKenya: 4.02% of GDP, 11.2% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 6.83% of GDP, 12.2% of GDPCambodia: 2.18% of GDP, 5.65% of GDPKiribati: 16.4% of GDP, 59% of GDPKorea, Rep.: 5.41% of GDP, 17.6% of GDPKuwait: 6.44% of GDP, 25.8% of GDPLao PDR: 1.23% of GDP, 14% of GDPLebanon: 1.22% of GDP, 4.9% of GDPSri Lanka: 1.83% of GDP, 6.74% of GDPLesotho: 6.62% of GDP, 36.4% of GDPLithuania: 4.25% of GDP, 19.3% of GDPLuxembourg: 3.74% of GDP, 19.8% of GDPLatvia: 4.32% of GDP, 22.9% of GDPMacao SAR, China: 3.5% of GDP, 12.2% of GDPMorocco: 6.02% of GDP, 18% of GDPMoldova: 6.56% of GDP, 18.5% of GDPMadagascar: 3.05% of GDP, 14.6% of GDPMaldives: 5.17% of GDP, 17.5% of GDPMexico: 4.06% of GDP, 11.8% of GDPMarshall Islands: 7.7% of GDP, 54.5% of GDPMali: 4.18% of GDP, 13.1% of GDPMalta: 4.71% of GDP, 17.5% of GDPMongolia: 5.21% of GDP, 14.6% of GDPMozambique: 5.98% of GDP, 19.2% of GDPMauritania: 7.61% of GDP, 16% of GDPMauritius: 4.25% of GDP, 14.2% of GDPMalawi: 2.75% of GDP, 18.2% of GDPMalaysia: 3.51% of GDP, 12.4% of GDPNamibia: 9.08% of GDP, 22.3% of GDPNiger: 4.07% of GDP, 12.2% of GDPNicaragua: 2.87% of GDP, 11.4% of GDPNetherlands: 5.18% of GDP, 25.9% of GDPNorway: 5.43% of GDP, 22.6% of GDPNepal: 3.69% of GDP, 8.38% of GDPNew Zealand: 5.21% of GDP, 21.1% of GDPOman: 4.38% of GDP, 18.7% of GDPPakistan: 1.95% of GDP, 9.32% of GDPPanama: 2.47% of GDP, 12.4% of GDPPeru: 4.36% of GDP, 13.1% of GDPPhilippines: 3.97% of GDP, 15.1% of GDPPalau: 3.44% of GDP, 38.3% of GDPPoland: 4.31% of GDP, 21.3% of GDPPuerto Rico (US): 4.27% of GDP, 7.7% of GDPPortugal: 4.55% of GDP, 17% of GDPParaguay: 3.53% of GDP, 10.9% of GDPWest Bank and Gaza: 5.43% of GDP, 17% of GDPQatar: 3.23% of GDP, 12.9% of GDPRomania: 3.28% of GDP, 17.3% of GDPRussian Federation: 4.16% of GDP, 19.1% of GDPRwanda: 4.61% of GDP, 15.1% of GDPSaudi Arabia: 4.48% of GDP, 20.6% of GDPSenegal: 6.16% of GDP, 15.4% of GDPSingapore: 2.19% of GDP, 10.3% of GDPSolomon Islands: 8.29% of GDP, 26.2% of GDPSierra Leone: 2.62% of GDP, 5.95% of GDPEl Salvador: 3.32% of GDP, 16.4% of GDPSan Marino: 2.9% of GDP, 14.1% of GDPSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.000008% of GDP, 8.11% of GDPSerbia: 3.4% of GDP, 18.5% of GDPSao Tome and Principe: 5.03% of GDP, 10.3% of GDPSuriname: 2.87% of GDP, 13.3% of GDPSlovak Republic: 4.66% of GDP, 21.4% of GDPSlovenia: 5.28% of GDP, 21.2% of GDPSweden: 7.32% of GDP, 26.4% of GDPEswatini: 6.03% of GDP, 21.5% of GDPSeychelles: 4.45% of GDP, 25.1% of GDPChad: 3.2% of GDP, 9.9% of GDPTogo: 4.14% of GDP, 13.3% of GDPThailand: 2.52% of GDP, 16.7% of GDPTajikistan: 5.44% of GDP, 11.3% of GDPTurkmenistan: 4.29% of GDP, 12.4% of GDPTimor-Leste: 5.24% of GDP, 60.6% of GDPTonga: 5.31% of GDP, 23.5% of GDPTunisia: 6.73% of GDP, 19.9% of GDPTurkiye: 3.1% of GDP, 13.9% of GDPTanzania: 3.16% of GDP, 9.78% of GDPUganda: 2.56% of GDP, 11.7% of GDPUkraine: 5.14% of GDP, 38.9% of GDPUruguay: 4.76% of GDP, 17.6% of GDPUnited States: 5.42% of GDP, 13.6% of GDPUzbekistan: 5.47% of GDP, 15.9% of GDPViet Nam: 2.89% of GDP, 9.38% of GDPVanuatu: 7.64% of GDP, 21.4% of GDPSamoa: 5.46% of GDP, 18.6% of GDPSouth Africa: 6.02% of GDP, 18.9% of GDPZambia: 4.07% of GDP, 12.7% of GDPZimbabwe: 0.385% of GDP, 12.2% of GDPCYMDZAHTIKGZKIRMHLNAMPLWSOMTLS

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.6456.2e-21166
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.6688.6e-23166
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.6441.1e-20166
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.6614.7e-22166

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 166 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.002 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.555 (without KIR) to +0.690 (without TLS). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: KIR (-0.089).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific26+0.60
Europe & Central Asia47+0.47
Latin America & Caribbean25+0.69
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17+0.71
Sub-Saharan Africa42+0.61

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third56+0.69
Middle third55+0.49
Richest third55+0.72

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians98+0.68
Muslims42+0.55

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24+0.69
Never a European colony20+0.20
Spain18+0.67
United Kingdom43+0.88

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.655 after dropping 8 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 36years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link also shows up within countries over time (r = +0.436). It holds even when looking only at changes from one year to the next (r = +0.297). This is the strongest kind of evidence available here: it holds when each country is compared only with itself, and it is not just a product of shared trends.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.644for comparison
Within countries+0.446each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.436q = 0.000 · 167 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.297q = 0.000

3,449 country-years (one country in one year), 167 countries, 1990–2025, about 21 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 15% for Education spending, 23% for Government consumption. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.50−0.5-100+10years Government consumption trails Education spending →lag -10: r = -0.034 (n = 2,694)lag -9: r = 0.034 (n = 2,818)lag -8: r = 0.065 (n = 2,900)lag -7: r = 0.048 (n = 2,965)lag -6: r = 0.031 (n = 3,041)lag -5: r = 0.046 (n = 3,125)lag -4: r = 0.107 (n = 3,196)lag -3: r = 0.191 (n = 3,272)lag -2: r = 0.277 (n = 3,333)lag -1: r = 0.375 (n = 3,394)lag +0: r = 0.436 (n = 3,449)lag +1: r = 0.374 (n = 3,454)lag +2: r = 0.312 (n = 3,412)lag +3: r = 0.240 (n = 3,317)lag +4: r = 0.181 (n = 3,173)lag +5: r = 0.132 (n = 3,039)lag +6: r = 0.101 (n = 2,895)lag +7: r = 0.044 (n = 2,769)lag +8: r = 0.024 (n = 2,627)lag +9: r = -0.007 (n = 2,476)lag +10: r = -0.019 (n = 2,343)

Same year (lag 0): +0.436. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of GDP
% of GDP		Years
Kiribati KIR16.4%59%2023, 2024
Namibia NAM9.08%22.3%2024, 2025
Algeria DZA8.98%18.3%2024, 2025
Solomon Islands SLB8.29%26.2%2023, 2024
Botswana BWA8.06%31.5%2020, 2025
Marshall Islands MHL7.7%54.5%2022, 2024
Vanuatu VUT7.64%21.4%2024
Mauritania MRT7.61%16%2024, 2025
Bolivia BOL7.54%16.5%2024
Sweden SWE7.32%26.4%2022, 2025
Iceland ISL7.31%26.1%2022, 2025
Kyrgyz Republic KGZ6.83%12.2%2023, 2025
Tunisia TUN6.73%19.9%2023, 2025
Lesotho LSO6.62%36.4%2024, 2025
Moldova MDA6.56%18.5%2023, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Education spending

Government expenditure on education, total (% of GDP)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Government consumption

General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

What government buys directly, as a share of the economy: wages, defence, and the running of schools and hospitals. It is the widely reported half of government size. Payments such as pensions and benefits are handed out, not spent on goods and services, so they are not in here. That understates government in the countries with the largest welfare systems. Government expense covers those, but for fewer countries. Compared with income per person, this answers the question the per-person dollar figure cannot. Rich countries spend far more per person because they have far more per person. Whether their governments are a larger share of what there is needs a share of GDP, not an amount per person. No "better" direction is set: a bigger or smaller government is a political question, not a better or worse one.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Education spending and Government consumption

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Education spending changes Government consumption, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Education spending or Government consumption