placestats

Birth registration vs. Physicians

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 165 countries, Birth registration and Physicians rise and fall together at r = +0.60 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.14, which could easily be chance (q = 0.26, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of physicians, 0.324 to 3.53 per 1,000 people, birth registration is better by 25.3% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 7.14% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.603p = 1.1e-17 · 165 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.138p = 0.078 · likely range [-0.02, +0.29]
p, allowing for regions0.026standard error 0.047 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.262across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth registration · % of children under 5link with income +0.87 · proxy
Physicians · per 1,000 peoplelink with income +0.85 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth registration · % of children under 5 →Physicians · per 1,000 people →2.7%100%0.0386.58Afghanistan: 42.3% of children under 5, 0.317 per 1,000 peopleAngola: 25% of children under 5, 0.244 per 1,000 peopleAlbania: 98.4% of children under 5, 1.88 per 1,000 peopleAndorra: 100% of children under 5, 5.07 per 1,000 peopleUnited Arab Emirates: 100% of children under 5, 2.99 per 1,000 peopleArgentina: 99.7% of children under 5, 5.11 per 1,000 peopleArmenia: 99.3% of children under 5, 3.36 per 1,000 peopleAustralia: 100% of children under 5, 4.09 per 1,000 peopleAustria: 100% of children under 5, 5.51 per 1,000 peopleBurundi: 83.5% of children under 5, 0.078 per 1,000 peopleBelgium: 100% of children under 5, 3.57 per 1,000 peopleBenin: 85.6% of children under 5, 0.216 per 1,000 peopleBurkina Faso: 76.9% of children under 5, 0.148 per 1,000 peopleBangladesh: 56% of children under 5, 0.722 per 1,000 peopleBulgaria: 100% of children under 5, 4.33 per 1,000 peopleBahrain: 100% of children under 5, 0.741 per 1,000 peopleBelarus: 100% of children under 5, 4.72 per 1,000 peopleBelize: 95.7% of children under 5, 1.09 per 1,000 peopleBolivia: 91.9% of children under 5, 1.28 per 1,000 peopleBrazil: 96.4% of children under 5, 2.36 per 1,000 peopleBarbados: 98.7% of children under 5, 2.96 per 1,000 peopleBrunei Darussalam: 99.9% of children under 5, 1.89 per 1,000 peopleBhutan: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.553 per 1,000 peopleBotswana: 87.5% of children under 5, 0.379 per 1,000 peopleCentral African Republic: 44.8% of children under 5, 0.074 per 1,000 peopleCanada: 100% of children under 5, 2.82 per 1,000 peopleSwitzerland: 100% of children under 5, 4.48 per 1,000 peopleChile: 99.4% of children under 5, 3.33 per 1,000 peopleCote d'Ivoire: 71.7% of children under 5, 0.166 per 1,000 peopleCameroon: 61.9% of children under 5, 0.136 per 1,000 peopleCongo, Dem. Rep.: 40.1% of children under 5, 0.208 per 1,000 peopleCongo, Rep.: 95.9% of children under 5, 0.173 per 1,000 peopleColombia: 96.8% of children under 5, 2.54 per 1,000 peopleComoros: 87.3% of children under 5, 0.424 per 1,000 peopleCabo Verde: 91.4% of children under 5, 0.73 per 1,000 peopleCosta Rica: 99.6% of children under 5, 2.69 per 1,000 peopleCyprus: 100% of children under 5, 3.56 per 1,000 peopleCzechia: 100% of children under 5, 4.35 per 1,000 peopleGermany: 100% of children under 5, 4.53 per 1,000 peopleDenmark: 100% of children under 5, 4.5 per 1,000 peopleDominican Republic: 92.2% of children under 5, 2.43 per 1,000 peopleAlgeria: 99.6% of children under 5, 1.66 per 1,000 peopleEcuador: 87.2% of children under 5, 2.31 per 1,000 peopleEgypt, Arab Rep.: 99.4% of children under 5, 0.671 per 1,000 peopleSpain: 100% of children under 5, 4.29 per 1,000 peopleEstonia: 100% of children under 5, 3.47 per 1,000 peopleEthiopia: 2.7% of children under 5, 0.143 per 1,000 peopleFinland: 100% of children under 5, 3.61 per 1,000 peopleFiji: 86.6% of children under 5, 0.813 per 1,000 peopleFrance: 100% of children under 5, 3.28 per 1,000 peopleGabon: 89.6% of children under 5, 0.521 per 1,000 peopleUnited Kingdom: 100% of children under 5, 3.3 per 1,000 peopleGeorgia: 98.5% of children under 5, 5.64 per 1,000 peopleGhana: 70.6% of children under 5, 0.266 per 1,000 peopleGuinea: 62% of children under 5, 0.21 per 1,000 peopleGambia, The: 59% of children under 5, 0.09 per 1,000 peopleGuinea-Bissau: 46% of children under 5, 0.252 per 1,000 peopleEquatorial Guinea: 53.5% of children under 5, 0.153 per 1,000 peopleGreece: 100% of children under 5, 6.58 per 1,000 peopleGuatemala: 96.4% of children under 5, 1.28 per 1,000 peopleGuyana: 98.1% of children under 5, 1.39 per 1,000 peopleHonduras: 97% of children under 5, 0.489 per 1,000 peopleCroatia: 100% of children under 5, 3.91 per 1,000 peopleHaiti: 84.8% of children under 5, 0.292 per 1,000 peopleHungary: 100% of children under 5, 3.46 per 1,000 peopleIndonesia: 77% of children under 5, 0.524 per 1,000 peopleIndia: 89.1% of children under 5, 0.723 per 1,000 peopleIreland: 100% of children under 5, 3.88 per 1,000 peopleIran, Islamic Rep.: 98.6% of children under 5, 1.81 per 1,000 peopleIraq: 98.8% of children under 5, 1.02 per 1,000 peopleIceland: 100% of children under 5, 4.37 per 1,000 peopleIsrael: 100% of children under 5, 3.8 per 1,000 peopleItaly: 100% of children under 5, 4.19 per 1,000 peopleJamaica: 98% of children under 5, 0.46 per 1,000 peopleJordan: 98% of children under 5, 2.85 per 1,000 peopleJapan: 100% of children under 5, 2.65 per 1,000 peopleKazakhstan: 99.7% of children under 5, 3.75 per 1,000 peopleKenya: 66.9% of children under 5, 0.289 per 1,000 peopleKyrgyz Republic: 98.9% of children under 5, 1.57 per 1,000 peopleCambodia: 73.3% of children under 5, 0.211 per 1,000 peopleKiribati: 91.6% of children under 5, 0.193 per 1,000 peopleLao PDR: 73% of children under 5, 0.331 per 1,000 peopleLebanon: 98.9% of children under 5, 2.68 per 1,000 peopleLiberia: 66.3% of children under 5, 0.178 per 1,000 peopleSt. Lucia: 92% of children under 5, 4.23 per 1,000 peopleLesotho: 44.5% of children under 5, 0.235 per 1,000 peopleLithuania: 100% of children under 5, 4.47 per 1,000 peopleLuxembourg: 100% of children under 5, 2.98 per 1,000 peopleLatvia: 100% of children under 5, 3.4 per 1,000 peopleMorocco: 96.9% of children under 5, 0.74 per 1,000 peopleMoldova: 99.6% of children under 5, 4.02 per 1,000 peopleMadagascar: 73.8% of children under 5, 0.172 per 1,000 peopleMaldives: 98.8% of children under 5, 2.23 per 1,000 peopleMexico: 97% of children under 5, 2.59 per 1,000 peopleMarshall Islands: 83.8% of children under 5, 0.467 per 1,000 peopleNorth Macedonia: 99.8% of children under 5, 2.94 per 1,000 peopleMali: 86.7% of children under 5, 0.188 per 1,000 peopleMalta: 100% of children under 5, 4.51 per 1,000 peopleMyanmar: 81.3% of children under 5, 0.757 per 1,000 peopleMontenegro: 99.4% of children under 5, 2.78 per 1,000 peopleMongolia: 99.6% of children under 5, 4.13 per 1,000 peopleMozambique: 55% of children under 5, 0.175 per 1,000 peopleMauritania: 44.8% of children under 5, 0.261 per 1,000 peopleMalawi: 67.2% of children under 5, 0.054 per 1,000 peopleNamibia: 78.1% of children under 5, 0.553 per 1,000 peopleNiger: 63.9% of children under 5, 0.038 per 1,000 peopleNigeria: 42.6% of children under 5, 0.38 per 1,000 peopleNicaragua: 84.7% of children under 5, 0.682 per 1,000 peopleNetherlands: 100% of children under 5, 3.88 per 1,000 peopleNorway: 100% of children under 5, 4.97 per 1,000 peopleNepal: 77.2% of children under 5, 1.01 per 1,000 peopleNaoero: 95.9% of children under 5, 1.27 per 1,000 peopleNew Zealand: 100% of children under 5, 3.61 per 1,000 peopleOman: 100% of children under 5, 1.99 per 1,000 peoplePakistan: 42.2% of children under 5, 1.16 per 1,000 peoplePanama: 96.7% of children under 5, 1.63 per 1,000 peoplePeru: 96.4% of children under 5, 1.69 per 1,000 peoplePhilippines: 91.8% of children under 5, 0.792 per 1,000 peoplePapua New Guinea: 13.4% of children under 5, 0.061 per 1,000 peoplePoland: 100% of children under 5, 4.03 per 1,000 peoplePortugal: 100% of children under 5, 5.85 per 1,000 peopleParaguay: 71% of children under 5, 3.89 per 1,000 peopleWest Bank and Gaza: 99.2% of children under 5, 2.17 per 1,000 peopleQatar: 100% of children under 5, 3.02 per 1,000 peopleRomania: 100% of children under 5, 3.63 per 1,000 peopleRussian Federation: 100% of children under 5, 5.11 per 1,000 peopleRwanda: 85.6% of children under 5, 0.09 per 1,000 peopleSaudi Arabia: 99.2% of children under 5, 3.41 per 1,000 peopleSudan: 67.3% of children under 5, 0.25 per 1,000 peopleSenegal: 78.7% of children under 5, 0.109 per 1,000 peopleSingapore: 99.9% of children under 5, 2.83 per 1,000 peopleSolomon Islands: 88% of children under 5, 0.238 per 1,000 peopleSierra Leone: 90.4% of children under 5, 0.134 per 1,000 peopleEl Salvador: 91.2% of children under 5, 1.62 per 1,000 peopleSan Marino: 100% of children under 5, 4.63 per 1,000 peopleSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 5.9% of children under 5, 0.048 per 1,000 peopleSerbia: 99.9% of children under 5, 3.1 per 1,000 peopleSao Tome and Principe: 98.6% of children under 5, 0.464 per 1,000 peopleSuriname: 98.3% of children under 5, 1.35 per 1,000 peopleSlovak Republic: 100% of children under 5, 3.7 per 1,000 peopleSlovenia: 100% of children under 5, 3.37 per 1,000 peopleSweden: 100% of children under 5, 4.41 per 1,000 peopleEswatini: 53.5% of children under 5, 0.557 per 1,000 peopleChad: 25.7% of children under 5, 0.085 per 1,000 peopleTogo: 82.9% of children under 5, 0.08 per 1,000 peopleThailand: 99.8% of children under 5, 0.541 per 1,000 peopleTajikistan: 95.8% of children under 5, 1.87 per 1,000 peopleTurkmenistan: 99.9% of children under 5, 1.93 per 1,000 peopleTimor-Leste: 60.4% of children under 5, 0.752 per 1,000 peopleTonga: 97.7% of children under 5, 1.01 per 1,000 peopleTrinidad and Tobago: 96.5% of children under 5, 4.16 per 1,000 peopleTunisia: 99.9% of children under 5, 1.31 per 1,000 peopleTurkiye: 98.4% of children under 5, 2.24 per 1,000 peopleTuvalu: 87.2% of children under 5, 1.35 per 1,000 peopleTanzania: 26.4% of children under 5, 0.134 per 1,000 peopleUganda: 32.2% of children under 5, 0.191 per 1,000 peopleUkraine: 99.8% of children under 5, 3.53 per 1,000 peopleUruguay: 99.8% of children under 5, 4.67 per 1,000 peopleUnited States: 100% of children under 5, 3.68 per 1,000 peopleViet Nam: 96.1% of children under 5, 1.11 per 1,000 peopleVanuatu: 43.4% of children under 5, 0.164 per 1,000 peopleSamoa: 66.9% of children under 5, 0.561 per 1,000 peopleSouth Africa: 88.6% of children under 5, 0.794 per 1,000 peopleZambia: 14% of children under 5, 0.324 per 1,000 peopleZimbabwe: 48.7% of children under 5, 0.136 per 1,000 peopleBTNCOGETHGEOGRCPNGPRTSOMTHAZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.6031.1e-17165
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.8411.9e-45165
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1380.078165
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3757.6e-7165

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 165 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.465 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.120 (without AGO) to +0.157 (without SOM). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SOM (+0.019).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific24+0.24
Europe & Central Asia47+0.19
Latin America & Caribbean25-0.24
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan18+0.08
Sub-Saharan Africa44+0.19

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third55+0.30
Middle third55+0.13
Richest third55+0.36

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians103+0.16
Muslims41+0.30

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.33
Never a European colony17+0.20
Spain19+0.15
United Kingdom51+0.11

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.206 after dropping 16 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of children under 5
per 1,000 people		Years
United States USA100%3.682022
Sweden SWE100%4.412022, 2021
Slovenia SVN100%3.372022
Slovak Republic SVK100%3.72020, 2022
San Marino SMR100%4.632022, 2023
Russian Federation RUS100%5.112022
Romania ROU100%3.632020, 2022
Qatar QAT100%3.022020, 2023
Portugal PRT100%5.852020, 2022
Poland POL100%4.032017, 2023
Oman OMN100%1.992018, 2022
New Zealand NZL100%3.612022
Norway NOR100%4.972022, 2023
Netherlands NLD100%3.882022
Malta MLT100%4.512022

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth registration

Completeness of birth registration (%)

UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

A measure of how far the state reaches: whether it knows a child exists. Based on surveys and sparse. It is near 100 across the rich world, so all the variation is at the other end.

Physicians

Physicians (per 1,000 people)

World Health Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Reported irregularly, so the latest value in the time window used is from a different year for different countries. Hospital beds, already on the site, have no "better" direction, since more beds is not plainly better. More doctors is closer to plainly better, so a direction is set on that basis.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth registration and Physicians

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth registration changes Physicians, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth registration or Physicians