placestats

Birth registration vs. HDI

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 165 countries, Birth registration and HDI rise and fall together at r = +0.72 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.33 (q = 0.026, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak positive link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of hdi, 0.621 to 0.878 points, birth registration is better by 27.1% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 31.5% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.719p = 1.7e-27 · 165 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.335p = 1.2e-5 · likely range [+0.19, +0.46]
p, allowing for regions0.015standard error 0.099 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.026across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth registration · % of children under 5link with income +0.87 · proxy
HDI · index, 0 to 1link with income +0.96 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth registration · % of children under 5 →HDI · index, 0 to 1 →2.7%100%0.4040.972Afghanistan: 42.3% of children under 5, 0.496 index, 0 to 1Angola: 25% of children under 5, 0.616 index, 0 to 1Albania: 98.4% of children under 5, 0.81 index, 0 to 1Andorra: 100% of children under 5, 0.913 index, 0 to 1United Arab Emirates: 100% of children under 5, 0.94 index, 0 to 1Argentina: 99.7% of children under 5, 0.865 index, 0 to 1Armenia: 99.3% of children under 5, 0.811 index, 0 to 1Australia: 100% of children under 5, 0.958 index, 0 to 1Austria: 100% of children under 5, 0.93 index, 0 to 1Burundi: 83.5% of children under 5, 0.439 index, 0 to 1Belgium: 100% of children under 5, 0.951 index, 0 to 1Benin: 85.6% of children under 5, 0.515 index, 0 to 1Burkina Faso: 76.9% of children under 5, 0.459 index, 0 to 1Bangladesh: 56% of children under 5, 0.685 index, 0 to 1Bulgaria: 100% of children under 5, 0.845 index, 0 to 1Bahrain: 100% of children under 5, 0.899 index, 0 to 1Belarus: 100% of children under 5, 0.824 index, 0 to 1Belize: 95.7% of children under 5, 0.721 index, 0 to 1Bolivia: 91.9% of children under 5, 0.733 index, 0 to 1Brazil: 96.4% of children under 5, 0.786 index, 0 to 1Barbados: 98.7% of children under 5, 0.811 index, 0 to 1Brunei Darussalam: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.837 index, 0 to 1Bhutan: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.698 index, 0 to 1Botswana: 87.5% of children under 5, 0.731 index, 0 to 1Central African Republic: 44.8% of children under 5, 0.414 index, 0 to 1Canada: 100% of children under 5, 0.939 index, 0 to 1Switzerland: 100% of children under 5, 0.97 index, 0 to 1Chile: 99.4% of children under 5, 0.878 index, 0 to 1Cote d'Ivoire: 71.7% of children under 5, 0.582 index, 0 to 1Cameroon: 61.9% of children under 5, 0.588 index, 0 to 1Congo, Dem. Rep.: 40.1% of children under 5, 0.522 index, 0 to 1Congo, Rep.: 95.9% of children under 5, 0.649 index, 0 to 1Colombia: 96.8% of children under 5, 0.788 index, 0 to 1Comoros: 87.3% of children under 5, 0.603 index, 0 to 1Cabo Verde: 91.4% of children under 5, 0.668 index, 0 to 1Costa Rica: 99.6% of children under 5, 0.833 index, 0 to 1Cyprus: 100% of children under 5, 0.913 index, 0 to 1Czechia: 100% of children under 5, 0.915 index, 0 to 1Germany: 100% of children under 5, 0.959 index, 0 to 1Denmark: 100% of children under 5, 0.962 index, 0 to 1Dominican Republic: 92.2% of children under 5, 0.776 index, 0 to 1Algeria: 99.6% of children under 5, 0.763 index, 0 to 1Ecuador: 87.2% of children under 5, 0.777 index, 0 to 1Egypt, Arab Rep.: 99.4% of children under 5, 0.754 index, 0 to 1Spain: 100% of children under 5, 0.918 index, 0 to 1Estonia: 100% of children under 5, 0.905 index, 0 to 1Ethiopia: 2.7% of children under 5, 0.497 index, 0 to 1Finland: 100% of children under 5, 0.948 index, 0 to 1Fiji: 86.6% of children under 5, 0.731 index, 0 to 1France: 100% of children under 5, 0.92 index, 0 to 1Gabon: 89.6% of children under 5, 0.733 index, 0 to 1United Kingdom: 100% of children under 5, 0.946 index, 0 to 1Georgia: 98.5% of children under 5, 0.844 index, 0 to 1Ghana: 70.6% of children under 5, 0.628 index, 0 to 1Guinea: 62% of children under 5, 0.5 index, 0 to 1Gambia, The: 59% of children under 5, 0.524 index, 0 to 1Guinea-Bissau: 46% of children under 5, 0.514 index, 0 to 1Equatorial Guinea: 53.5% of children under 5, 0.674 index, 0 to 1Greece: 100% of children under 5, 0.908 index, 0 to 1Guatemala: 96.4% of children under 5, 0.662 index, 0 to 1Guyana: 98.1% of children under 5, 0.776 index, 0 to 1Honduras: 97% of children under 5, 0.645 index, 0 to 1Croatia: 100% of children under 5, 0.889 index, 0 to 1Haiti: 84.8% of children under 5, 0.554 index, 0 to 1Hungary: 100% of children under 5, 0.87 index, 0 to 1Indonesia: 77% of children under 5, 0.728 index, 0 to 1India: 89.1% of children under 5, 0.685 index, 0 to 1Ireland: 100% of children under 5, 0.949 index, 0 to 1Iran, Islamic Rep.: 98.6% of children under 5, 0.799 index, 0 to 1Iraq: 98.8% of children under 5, 0.695 index, 0 to 1Iceland: 100% of children under 5, 0.972 index, 0 to 1Israel: 100% of children under 5, 0.919 index, 0 to 1Italy: 100% of children under 5, 0.915 index, 0 to 1Jamaica: 98% of children under 5, 0.72 index, 0 to 1Jordan: 98% of children under 5, 0.754 index, 0 to 1Japan: 100% of children under 5, 0.925 index, 0 to 1Kazakhstan: 99.7% of children under 5, 0.837 index, 0 to 1Kenya: 66.9% of children under 5, 0.628 index, 0 to 1Kyrgyz Republic: 98.9% of children under 5, 0.72 index, 0 to 1Cambodia: 73.3% of children under 5, 0.606 index, 0 to 1Kiribati: 91.6% of children under 5, 0.644 index, 0 to 1Lao PDR: 73% of children under 5, 0.617 index, 0 to 1Lebanon: 98.9% of children under 5, 0.752 index, 0 to 1Liberia: 66.3% of children under 5, 0.51 index, 0 to 1St. Lucia: 92% of children under 5, 0.748 index, 0 to 1Lesotho: 44.5% of children under 5, 0.55 index, 0 to 1Lithuania: 100% of children under 5, 0.895 index, 0 to 1Luxembourg: 100% of children under 5, 0.922 index, 0 to 1Latvia: 100% of children under 5, 0.889 index, 0 to 1Morocco: 96.9% of children under 5, 0.71 index, 0 to 1Moldova: 99.6% of children under 5, 0.785 index, 0 to 1Madagascar: 73.8% of children under 5, 0.487 index, 0 to 1Maldives: 98.8% of children under 5, 0.766 index, 0 to 1Mexico: 97% of children under 5, 0.789 index, 0 to 1Marshall Islands: 83.8% of children under 5, 0.733 index, 0 to 1North Macedonia: 99.8% of children under 5, 0.815 index, 0 to 1Mali: 86.7% of children under 5, 0.419 index, 0 to 1Malta: 100% of children under 5, 0.924 index, 0 to 1Myanmar: 81.3% of children under 5, 0.609 index, 0 to 1Montenegro: 99.4% of children under 5, 0.862 index, 0 to 1Mongolia: 99.6% of children under 5, 0.747 index, 0 to 1Mozambique: 55% of children under 5, 0.493 index, 0 to 1Mauritania: 44.8% of children under 5, 0.563 index, 0 to 1Malawi: 67.2% of children under 5, 0.517 index, 0 to 1Namibia: 78.1% of children under 5, 0.665 index, 0 to 1Niger: 63.9% of children under 5, 0.419 index, 0 to 1Nigeria: 42.6% of children under 5, 0.56 index, 0 to 1Nicaragua: 84.7% of children under 5, 0.706 index, 0 to 1Netherlands: 100% of children under 5, 0.955 index, 0 to 1Norway: 100% of children under 5, 0.97 index, 0 to 1Nepal: 77.2% of children under 5, 0.622 index, 0 to 1Naoero: 95.9% of children under 5, 0.703 index, 0 to 1New Zealand: 100% of children under 5, 0.938 index, 0 to 1Oman: 100% of children under 5, 0.858 index, 0 to 1Pakistan: 42.2% of children under 5, 0.544 index, 0 to 1Panama: 96.7% of children under 5, 0.839 index, 0 to 1Peru: 96.4% of children under 5, 0.794 index, 0 to 1Philippines: 91.8% of children under 5, 0.72 index, 0 to 1Papua New Guinea: 13.4% of children under 5, 0.576 index, 0 to 1Poland: 100% of children under 5, 0.906 index, 0 to 1Portugal: 100% of children under 5, 0.89 index, 0 to 1Paraguay: 71% of children under 5, 0.756 index, 0 to 1West Bank and Gaza: 99.2% of children under 5, 0.674 index, 0 to 1Qatar: 100% of children under 5, 0.886 index, 0 to 1Romania: 100% of children under 5, 0.845 index, 0 to 1Russian Federation: 100% of children under 5, 0.832 index, 0 to 1Rwanda: 85.6% of children under 5, 0.578 index, 0 to 1Saudi Arabia: 99.2% of children under 5, 0.9 index, 0 to 1Sudan: 67.3% of children under 5, 0.511 index, 0 to 1Senegal: 78.7% of children under 5, 0.53 index, 0 to 1Singapore: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.946 index, 0 to 1Solomon Islands: 88% of children under 5, 0.584 index, 0 to 1Sierra Leone: 90.4% of children under 5, 0.467 index, 0 to 1El Salvador: 91.2% of children under 5, 0.678 index, 0 to 1San Marino: 100% of children under 5, 0.915 index, 0 to 1Somalia, Fed. Rep.: 5.9% of children under 5, 0.404 index, 0 to 1Serbia: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.833 index, 0 to 1Sao Tome and Principe: 98.6% of children under 5, 0.637 index, 0 to 1Suriname: 98.3% of children under 5, 0.722 index, 0 to 1Slovak Republic: 100% of children under 5, 0.88 index, 0 to 1Slovenia: 100% of children under 5, 0.931 index, 0 to 1Sweden: 100% of children under 5, 0.959 index, 0 to 1Eswatini: 53.5% of children under 5, 0.695 index, 0 to 1Chad: 25.7% of children under 5, 0.416 index, 0 to 1Togo: 82.9% of children under 5, 0.571 index, 0 to 1Thailand: 99.8% of children under 5, 0.798 index, 0 to 1Tajikistan: 95.8% of children under 5, 0.691 index, 0 to 1Turkmenistan: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.764 index, 0 to 1Timor-Leste: 60.4% of children under 5, 0.634 index, 0 to 1Tonga: 97.7% of children under 5, 0.769 index, 0 to 1Trinidad and Tobago: 96.5% of children under 5, 0.807 index, 0 to 1Tunisia: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.746 index, 0 to 1Turkiye: 98.4% of children under 5, 0.853 index, 0 to 1Tuvalu: 87.2% of children under 5, 0.689 index, 0 to 1Tanzania: 26.4% of children under 5, 0.555 index, 0 to 1Uganda: 32.2% of children under 5, 0.582 index, 0 to 1Ukraine: 99.8% of children under 5, 0.779 index, 0 to 1Uruguay: 99.8% of children under 5, 0.862 index, 0 to 1United States: 100% of children under 5, 0.938 index, 0 to 1Viet Nam: 96.1% of children under 5, 0.766 index, 0 to 1Vanuatu: 43.4% of children under 5, 0.621 index, 0 to 1Samoa: 66.9% of children under 5, 0.708 index, 0 to 1South Africa: 88.6% of children under 5, 0.741 index, 0 to 1Zambia: 14% of children under 5, 0.595 index, 0 to 1Zimbabwe: 48.7% of children under 5, 0.598 index, 0 to 1BDICHEETHISLMLINORPNGSLESOMTCDZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.7191.7e-27165
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.9031.4e-61165
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3351.2e-5165
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4751.3e-10165

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 165 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.384 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.313 (without TCD) to +0.368 (without MLI). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: MLI (+0.033).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific24+0.40
Europe & Central Asia47-0.05
Latin America & Caribbean25+0.11
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan18+0.73
Sub-Saharan Africa44+0.16

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third55+0.32
Middle third55+0.46
Richest third55+0.49

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians103+0.29
Muslims41+0.50

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23+0.52
Never a European colony17+0.75
Spain19+0.41
United Kingdom51+0.35

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.300 after dropping 16 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of children under 5
index, 0 to 1		Years
United States USA100%0.9382022, 2023
Sweden SWE100%0.9592022, 2023
Slovenia SVN100%0.9312022, 2023
Slovak Republic SVK100%0.882020, 2023
San Marino SMR100%0.9152022, 2023
Russian Federation RUS100%0.8322022, 2023
Romania ROU100%0.8452020, 2023
Qatar QAT100%0.8862020, 2023
Portugal PRT100%0.892020, 2023
Poland POL100%0.9062017, 2023
Oman OMN100%0.8582018, 2023
New Zealand NZL100%0.9382022, 2023
Norway NOR100%0.972022, 2023
Netherlands NLD100%0.9552022, 2023
Malta MLT100%0.9242022, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025

Sources

Birth registration

Completeness of birth registration (%)

UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

A measure of how far the state reaches: whether it knows a child exists. Based on surveys and sparse. It is near 100 across the rich world, so all the variation is at the other end.

HDI

Human Development Index

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

The geometric mean (a kind of average that multiplies the parts together) of three parts: income per person (GNI per capita), life expectancy, and schooling (expected years and average years). All four inputs are on this site, and each is flagged. So a link between the HDI and any of them is shown for what it is: the index matching a part of itself. For the same reason it is kept out of this site's own topic scores. Those already contain its parts, and adding it would count each twice. It is the most-cited development index there is. It is here mostly so its parts can be read separately.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth registration and HDI

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth registration changes HDI, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth registration or HDI