placestats

Birth registration vs. Education spending

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 160 countries, Birth registration and Education spending rise and fall together at r = +0.28 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.30, q = 0.029, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of education spending, 3.02% to 5.28% of GDP, birth registration is better by 6.77% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 5.38% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.276p = 0.000 · 160 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.298p = 0.000 · likely range [+0.15, +0.43]
p, allowing for regions0.050standard error 0.122 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.029across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth registration · % of children under 5link with income +0.87 · proxy
Education spending · % of GDPlink with income +0.12 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth registration · % of children under 5 →Education spending · % of GDP →2.7%100%0.000008%16.4%Afghanistan: 42.3% of children under 5, 4.34% of GDPAngola: 25% of children under 5, 2.51% of GDPAlbania: 98.4% of children under 5, 3.09% of GDPAndorra: 100% of children under 5, 1.9% of GDPUnited Arab Emirates: 100% of children under 5, 3.89% of GDPArgentina: 99.7% of children under 5, 5% of GDPArmenia: 99.3% of children under 5, 2.44% of GDPAustralia: 100% of children under 5, 5.06% of GDPAustria: 100% of children under 5, 5.28% of GDPBurundi: 83.5% of children under 5, 4.5% of GDPBelgium: 100% of children under 5, 6.28% of GDPBenin: 85.6% of children under 5, 3.23% of GDPBurkina Faso: 76.9% of children under 5, 5.33% of GDPBangladesh: 56% of children under 5, 2.03% of GDPBulgaria: 100% of children under 5, 4.5% of GDPBahrain: 100% of children under 5, 1.89% of GDPBelarus: 100% of children under 5, 5.05% of GDPBelize: 95.7% of children under 5, 4.62% of GDPBolivia: 91.9% of children under 5, 7.54% of GDPBrazil: 96.4% of children under 5, 5.62% of GDPBarbados: 98.7% of children under 5, 3.56% of GDPBrunei Darussalam: 99.9% of children under 5, 4.43% of GDPBhutan: 99.9% of children under 5, 5.85% of GDPBotswana: 87.5% of children under 5, 8.06% of GDPCentral African Republic: 44.8% of children under 5, 1.83% of GDPCanada: 100% of children under 5, 4.84% of GDPSwitzerland: 100% of children under 5, 4.86% of GDPChile: 99.4% of children under 5, 4.91% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 71.7% of children under 5, 3.61% of GDPCameroon: 61.9% of children under 5, 2.84% of GDPCongo, Dem. Rep.: 40.1% of children under 5, 2.84% of GDPCongo, Rep.: 95.9% of children under 5, 3.34% of GDPColombia: 96.8% of children under 5, 5.26% of GDPComoros: 87.3% of children under 5, 2.34% of GDPCabo Verde: 91.4% of children under 5, 4.35% of GDPCosta Rica: 99.6% of children under 5, 5.31% of GDPCyprus: 100% of children under 5, 4.74% of GDPCzechia: 100% of children under 5, 4.3% of GDPGermany: 100% of children under 5, 5.24% of GDPDenmark: 100% of children under 5, 6.36% of GDPDominican Republic: 92.2% of children under 5, 3.76% of GDPAlgeria: 99.6% of children under 5, 8.98% of GDPEcuador: 87.2% of children under 5, 3.69% of GDPSpain: 100% of children under 5, 4.59% of GDPEstonia: 100% of children under 5, 5.21% of GDPEthiopia: 2.7% of children under 5, 2.3% of GDPFinland: 100% of children under 5, 6.38% of GDPFiji: 86.6% of children under 5, 4.25% of GDPFrance: 100% of children under 5, 5.32% of GDPGabon: 89.6% of children under 5, 2.32% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 100% of children under 5, 5.91% of GDPGeorgia: 98.5% of children under 5, 3.98% of GDPGhana: 70.6% of children under 5, 2.91% of GDPGuinea: 62% of children under 5, 1.72% of GDPGambia, The: 59% of children under 5, 2.81% of GDPGuinea-Bissau: 46% of children under 5, 2.01% of GDPGreece: 100% of children under 5, 3.38% of GDPGuatemala: 96.4% of children under 5, 3.08% of GDPGuyana: 98.1% of children under 5, 4.45% of GDPHonduras: 97% of children under 5, 4.55% of GDPCroatia: 100% of children under 5, 4.09% of GDPHaiti: 84.8% of children under 5, 0.965% of GDPHungary: 100% of children under 5, 3.8% of GDPIndonesia: 77% of children under 5, 1.28% of GDPIndia: 89.1% of children under 5, 4.1% of GDPIreland: 100% of children under 5, 2.9% of GDPIran, Islamic Rep.: 98.6% of children under 5, 2.82% of GDPIceland: 100% of children under 5, 7.31% of GDPIsrael: 100% of children under 5, 5.93% of GDPItaly: 100% of children under 5, 4.07% of GDPJamaica: 98% of children under 5, 5.51% of GDPJordan: 98% of children under 5, 3.23% of GDPJapan: 100% of children under 5, 3.34% of GDPKazakhstan: 99.7% of children under 5, 4.86% of GDPKenya: 66.9% of children under 5, 4.02% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 98.9% of children under 5, 6.83% of GDPCambodia: 73.3% of children under 5, 2.18% of GDPKiribati: 91.6% of children under 5, 16.4% of GDPLao PDR: 73% of children under 5, 1.23% of GDPLebanon: 98.9% of children under 5, 1.22% of GDPLiberia: 66.3% of children under 5, 2.27% of GDPSt. Lucia: 92% of children under 5, 3.85% of GDPLesotho: 44.5% of children under 5, 6.62% of GDPLithuania: 100% of children under 5, 4.25% of GDPLuxembourg: 100% of children under 5, 3.74% of GDPLatvia: 100% of children under 5, 4.32% of GDPMorocco: 96.9% of children under 5, 6.02% of GDPMoldova: 99.6% of children under 5, 6.56% of GDPMadagascar: 73.8% of children under 5, 3.05% of GDPMaldives: 98.8% of children under 5, 5.17% of GDPMexico: 97% of children under 5, 4.06% of GDPMarshall Islands: 83.8% of children under 5, 7.7% of GDPMali: 86.7% of children under 5, 4.18% of GDPMalta: 100% of children under 5, 4.71% of GDPMyanmar: 81.3% of children under 5, 2% of GDPMongolia: 99.6% of children under 5, 5.21% of GDPMozambique: 55% of children under 5, 5.98% of GDPMauritania: 44.8% of children under 5, 7.61% of GDPMalawi: 67.2% of children under 5, 2.75% of GDPNamibia: 78.1% of children under 5, 9.08% of GDPNiger: 63.9% of children under 5, 4.07% of GDPNigeria: 42.6% of children under 5, 0.319% of GDPNicaragua: 84.7% of children under 5, 2.87% of GDPNetherlands: 100% of children under 5, 5.18% of GDPNorway: 100% of children under 5, 5.43% of GDPNepal: 77.2% of children under 5, 3.69% of GDPNaoero: 95.9% of children under 5, 5.78% of GDPNew Zealand: 100% of children under 5, 5.21% of GDPOman: 100% of children under 5, 4.38% of GDPPakistan: 42.2% of children under 5, 1.95% of GDPPanama: 96.7% of children under 5, 2.47% of GDPPeru: 96.4% of children under 5, 4.36% of GDPPhilippines: 91.8% of children under 5, 3.97% of GDPPapua New Guinea: 13.4% of children under 5, 0.782% of GDPPoland: 100% of children under 5, 4.31% of GDPPortugal: 100% of children under 5, 4.55% of GDPParaguay: 71% of children under 5, 3.53% of GDPWest Bank and Gaza: 99.2% of children under 5, 5.43% of GDPQatar: 100% of children under 5, 3.23% of GDPRomania: 100% of children under 5, 3.28% of GDPRussian Federation: 100% of children under 5, 4.16% of GDPRwanda: 85.6% of children under 5, 4.61% of GDPSaudi Arabia: 99.2% of children under 5, 4.48% of GDPSenegal: 78.7% of children under 5, 6.16% of GDPSingapore: 99.9% of children under 5, 2.19% of GDPSolomon Islands: 88% of children under 5, 8.29% of GDPSierra Leone: 90.4% of children under 5, 2.62% of GDPEl Salvador: 91.2% of children under 5, 3.32% of GDPSan Marino: 100% of children under 5, 2.9% of GDPSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 5.9% of children under 5, 0.000008% of GDPSerbia: 99.9% of children under 5, 3.4% of GDPSao Tome and Principe: 98.6% of children under 5, 5.03% of GDPSuriname: 98.3% of children under 5, 2.87% of GDPSlovak Republic: 100% of children under 5, 4.66% of GDPSlovenia: 100% of children under 5, 5.28% of GDPSweden: 100% of children under 5, 7.32% of GDPEswatini: 53.5% of children under 5, 6.03% of GDPTurks and Caicos Islands: 99.2% of children under 5, 2.95% of GDPChad: 25.7% of children under 5, 3.2% of GDPTogo: 82.9% of children under 5, 4.14% of GDPThailand: 99.8% of children under 5, 2.52% of GDPTajikistan: 95.8% of children under 5, 5.44% of GDPTurkmenistan: 99.9% of children under 5, 4.29% of GDPTimor-Leste: 60.4% of children under 5, 5.24% of GDPTonga: 97.7% of children under 5, 5.31% of GDPTrinidad and Tobago: 96.5% of children under 5, 3.23% of GDPTunisia: 99.9% of children under 5, 6.73% of GDPTurkiye: 98.4% of children under 5, 3.1% of GDPTuvalu: 87.2% of children under 5, 12.8% of GDPTanzania: 26.4% of children under 5, 3.16% of GDPUganda: 32.2% of children under 5, 2.56% of GDPUkraine: 99.8% of children under 5, 5.14% of GDPUruguay: 99.8% of children under 5, 4.76% of GDPUnited States: 100% of children under 5, 5.42% of GDPViet Nam: 96.1% of children under 5, 2.89% of GDPVanuatu: 43.4% of children under 5, 7.64% of GDPSamoa: 66.9% of children under 5, 5.46% of GDPSouth Africa: 88.6% of children under 5, 6.02% of GDPZambia: 14% of children under 5, 4.07% of GDPZimbabwe: 48.7% of children under 5, 0.385% of GDPANDBHRDZAETHKIRLBNPNGSOMTUVVUT

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.2760.000160
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.3010.000160
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2980.000160
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2920.000160

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 160 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.022 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.272 (without SOM) to +0.323 (without MRT). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SOM (-0.026).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific24+0.48
Europe & Central Asia45+0.11
Latin America & Caribbean26+0.26
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan16+0.34
Sub-Saharan Africa42+0.28

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third54+0.33
Middle third53+0.30
Richest third53+0.29

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians100+0.24
Muslims38+0.44

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23-0.04
Never a European colony17+0.40
Spain18+0.37
United Kingdom48+0.51

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.241 after dropping 21 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of children under 5
% of GDP		Years
United States USA100%5.42%2022, 2021
Sweden SWE100%7.32%2022
Slovenia SVN100%5.28%2022
Slovak Republic SVK100%4.66%2020, 2022
San Marino SMR100%2.9%2022
Russian Federation RUS100%4.16%2022, 2023
Romania ROU100%3.28%2020, 2022
Qatar QAT100%3.23%2020
Portugal PRT100%4.55%2020, 2022
Poland POL100%4.31%2017, 2022
Oman OMN100%4.38%2018, 2022
New Zealand NZL100%5.21%2022, 2023
Norway NOR100%5.43%2022
Netherlands NLD100%5.18%2022
Malta MLT100%4.71%2022

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth registration

Completeness of birth registration (%)

UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

A measure of how far the state reaches: whether it knows a child exists. Based on surveys and sparse. It is near 100 across the rich world, so all the variation is at the other end.

Education spending

Government expenditure on education, total (% of GDP)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth registration and Education spending

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth registration changes Education spending, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth registration or Education spending