placestats

Birth rate vs. Fixed broadband

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 196 countries, Birth rate and Fixed broadband rise and fall together at r = -0.78 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.24 (q = 0.037, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak negative link remains. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of birth rate, 9.78 to 24.7 per 1,000 people, fixed broadband is worse by 19.1 per 100 people at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 6.65 per 100 people.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.780p = 2.2e-41 · 196 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.241p = 0.001 · likely range [-0.37, -0.10]
p, allowing for regions0.003standard error 0.050 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.037across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth rate · per 1,000 peoplelink with income -0.85 · proxy
Fixed broadband · per 100 peoplelink with income +0.88 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth rate · per 1,000 people →Fixed broadband · per 100 people →4.246.2056.4Aruba: 7.59 per 1,000 people, 17.5 per 100 peopleAfghanistan: 35 per 1,000 people, 0.0801 per 100 peopleAngola: 37.2 per 1,000 people, 0.363 per 100 peopleAlbania: 10.1 per 1,000 people, 24.9 per 100 peopleAndorra: 6.85 per 1,000 people, 52.4 per 100 peopleUnited Arab Emirates: 9.82 per 1,000 people, 40.8 per 100 peopleArgentina: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 26.1 per 100 peopleArmenia: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 20.3 per 100 peopleAntigua and Barbuda: 11.7 per 1,000 people, 10.7 per 100 peopleAustralia: 10.7 per 1,000 people, 36.5 per 100 peopleAustria: 8.4 per 1,000 people, 30.1 per 100 peopleAzerbaijan: 10 per 1,000 people, 21.8 per 100 peopleBurundi: 33.2 per 1,000 people, 0.0203 per 100 peopleBelgium: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 44.2 per 100 peopleBenin: 33.4 per 1,000 people, 0.277 per 100 peopleBurkina Faso: 31.3 per 1,000 people, 0.851 per 100 peopleBangladesh: 20 per 1,000 people, 8.09 per 100 peopleBulgaria: 8.3 per 1,000 people, 37 per 100 peopleBahrain: 12 per 1,000 people, 17 per 100 peopleBahamas, The: 10.8 per 1,000 people, 25.3 per 100 peopleBosnia and Herzegovina: 7.72 per 1,000 people, 29.4 per 100 peopleBelarus: 7.03 per 1,000 people, 36.3 per 100 peopleBelize: 18.1 per 1,000 people, 9.75 per 100 peopleBermuda: 7.92 per 1,000 people, 51.3 per 100 peopleBolivia: 21 per 1,000 people, 12.1 per 100 peopleBrazil: 12.1 per 1,000 people, 24.1 per 100 peopleBarbados: 11.1 per 1,000 people, 37.5 per 100 peopleBrunei Darussalam: 13.3 per 1,000 people, 21.2 per 100 peopleBhutan: 12.5 per 1,000 people, 2.92 per 100 peopleBotswana: 24.4 per 1,000 people, 7.44 per 100 peopleCentral African Republic: 46.2 per 1,000 people, 0.0161 per 100 peopleCanada: 8.9 per 1,000 people, 42.5 per 100 peopleSwitzerland: 8.7 per 1,000 people, 47 per 100 peopleChile: 8.72 per 1,000 people, 23.7 per 100 peopleChina: 6.77 per 1,000 people, 47.2 per 100 peopleCote d'Ivoire: 31.6 per 1,000 people, 1.6 per 100 peopleCameroon: 33.3 per 1,000 people, 2.13 per 100 peopleCongo, Dem. Rep.: 40.9 per 1,000 people, 0.032 per 100 peopleCongo, Rep.: 30.4 per 1,000 people, 1.27 per 100 peopleColombia: 13.3 per 1,000 people, 17.2 per 100 peopleComoros: 28.2 per 1,000 people, 0.388 per 100 peopleCabo Verde: 12.2 per 1,000 people, 8.31 per 100 peopleCosta Rica: 9.99 per 1,000 people, 23.3 per 100 peopleCuracao: 7.2 per 1,000 people, 31.5 per 100 peopleCayman Islands: 11.6 per 1,000 people, 56.4 per 100 peopleCyprus: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 37.6 per 100 peopleCzechia: 7.7 per 1,000 people, 38.9 per 100 peopleGermany: 8.1 per 1,000 people, 45.6 per 100 peopleDjibouti: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 1.47 per 100 peopleDominica: 11 per 1,000 people, 20.9 per 100 peopleDenmark: 9.5 per 1,000 people, 43.4 per 100 peopleDominican Republic: 17.6 per 1,000 people, 11.2 per 100 peopleAlgeria: 18.8 per 1,000 people, 13.3 per 100 peopleEcuador: 14.8 per 1,000 people, 17.2 per 100 peopleEgypt, Arab Rep.: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 11.7 per 100 peopleSpain: 6.5 per 1,000 people, 39.2 per 100 peopleEstonia: 7.1 per 1,000 people, 35.4 per 100 peopleEthiopia: 31.5 per 1,000 people, 0.594 per 100 peopleFinland: 7.8 per 1,000 people, 36.5 per 100 peopleFiji: 17.9 per 1,000 people, 1.8 per 100 peopleFrance: 9.7 per 1,000 people, 48.9 per 100 peopleFaroe Islands: 10.8 per 1,000 people, 34.6 per 100 peopleMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 22.3 per 1,000 people, 5.82 per 100 peopleGabon: 27.1 per 1,000 people, 4.69 per 100 peopleUnited Kingdom: 9.89 per 1,000 people, 42.2 per 100 peopleGeorgia: 11.3 per 1,000 people, 30.4 per 100 peopleGhana: 25.9 per 1,000 people, 0.665 per 100 peopleGuinea: 33.3 per 1,000 people, 0.00628 per 100 peopleGambia, The: 29.9 per 1,000 people, 0.519 per 100 peopleGuinea-Bissau: 29.6 per 1,000 people, 0.386 per 100 peopleEquatorial Guinea: 30 per 1,000 people, 0.101 per 100 peopleGreece: 6.6 per 1,000 people, 44.7 per 100 peopleGrenada: 11.5 per 1,000 people, 29.8 per 100 peopleGreenland: 12 per 1,000 people, 32 per 100 peopleGuatemala: 20.6 per 1,000 people, 5.34 per 100 peopleGuyana: 19.9 per 1,000 people, 12.9 per 100 peopleHong Kong SAR, China: 4.9 per 1,000 people, 40.3 per 100 peopleHonduras: 21.6 per 1,000 people, 4.58 per 100 peopleCroatia: 8.3 per 1,000 people, 29.6 per 100 peopleHaiti: 21.9 per 1,000 people, 0.307 per 100 peopleHungary: 8.2 per 1,000 people, 37.5 per 100 peopleIndonesia: 15.8 per 1,000 people, 4.92 per 100 peopleIndia: 16 per 1,000 people, 3.15 per 100 peopleIreland: 10 per 1,000 people, 32.3 per 100 peopleIran, Islamic Rep.: 12.6 per 1,000 people, 12.1 per 100 peopleIraq: 25.6 per 1,000 people, 17.6 per 100 peopleIceland: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 37.5 per 100 peopleIsrael: 18.6 per 1,000 people, 29.2 per 100 peopleItaly: 6.3 per 1,000 people, 31.8 per 100 peopleJamaica: 11.4 per 1,000 people, 16 per 100 peopleJordan: 20.5 per 1,000 people, 7.02 per 100 peopleJapan: 5.7 per 1,000 people, 38.6 per 100 peopleKazakhstan: 19.5 per 1,000 people, 15.3 per 100 peopleKenya: 27 per 1,000 people, 3.04 per 100 peopleKyrgyz Republic: 19.4 per 1,000 people, 7.8 per 100 peopleCambodia: 20.3 per 1,000 people, 4.15 per 100 peopleKiribati: 25.3 per 1,000 people, 0.0349 per 100 peopleSt. Kitts and Nevis: 11.7 per 1,000 people, 46.7 per 100 peopleKorea, Rep.: 4.7 per 1,000 people, 47.8 per 100 peopleKuwait: 10 per 1,000 people, 1.01 per 100 peopleLao PDR: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 2.72 per 100 peopleLebanon: 16 per 1,000 people, 7.29 per 100 peopleLiberia: 30.6 per 1,000 people, 0.275 per 100 peopleLibya: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 4.52 per 100 peopleSt. Lucia: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 13.6 per 100 peopleSri Lanka: 10.1 per 1,000 people, 8.47 per 100 peopleLesotho: 23.8 per 1,000 people, 0.379 per 100 peopleLithuania: 6.6 per 1,000 people, 27.8 per 100 peopleLuxembourg: 9.5 per 1,000 people, 40.3 per 100 peopleLatvia: 6.9 per 1,000 people, 25.8 per 100 peopleMacao SAR, China: 5.3 per 1,000 people, 29.9 per 100 peopleMorocco: 16.4 per 1,000 people, 7.3 per 100 peopleMoldova: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 29.6 per 100 peopleMadagascar: 31.7 per 1,000 people, 0.124 per 100 peopleMaldives: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 19.6 per 100 peopleMexico: 15.5 per 1,000 people, 21.7 per 100 peopleMarshall Islands: 20.1 per 1,000 people, 2.35 per 100 peopleNorth Macedonia: 8.8 per 1,000 people, 29.9 per 100 peopleMali: 39.5 per 1,000 people, 0.774 per 100 peopleMalta: 7.7 per 1,000 people, 44.5 per 100 peopleMyanmar: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 2.87 per 100 peopleMontenegro: 11.2 per 1,000 people, 32.3 per 100 peopleMongolia: 16.9 per 1,000 people, 15.8 per 100 peopleMozambique: 37 per 1,000 people, 0.142 per 100 peopleMauritania: 34 per 1,000 people, 0.947 per 100 peopleMauritius: 10.3 per 1,000 people, 28 per 100 peopleMalawi: 31.1 per 1,000 people, 0.0864 per 100 peopleMalaysia: 12.4 per 1,000 people, 13.5 per 100 peopleNamibia: 25.9 per 1,000 people, 2.83 per 100 peopleNiger: 41.4 per 1,000 people, 0.111 per 100 peopleNigeria: 32.5 per 1,000 people, 0.0787 per 100 peopleNicaragua: 19.1 per 1,000 people, 5.78 per 100 peopleNetherlands: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 43 per 100 peopleNorway: 9.7 per 1,000 people, 45.2 per 100 peopleNepal: 19 per 1,000 people, 10.1 per 100 peopleNaoero: 24.6 per 1,000 people, 9.96 per 100 peopleNew Zealand: 11 per 1,000 people, 38 per 100 peopleOman: 16.8 per 1,000 people, 11.1 per 100 peoplePakistan: 27.4 per 1,000 people, 1.47 per 100 peoplePanama: 15.9 per 1,000 people, 18.1 per 100 peoplePeru: 15.8 per 1,000 people, 11.7 per 100 peoplePhilippines: 15.9 per 1,000 people, 7.14 per 100 peoplePalau: 10.7 per 1,000 people, 7.33 per 100 peoplePapua New Guinea: 24.3 per 1,000 people, 0.233 per 100 peoplePoland: 6.9 per 1,000 people, 25.4 per 100 peoplePuerto Rico (US): 5.7 per 1,000 people, 28 per 100 peoplePortugal: 7.9 per 1,000 people, 45.2 per 100 peopleParaguay: 19.7 per 1,000 people, 12.9 per 100 peopleWest Bank and Gaza: 26.5 per 1,000 people, 8.16 per 100 peopleQatar: 9.52 per 1,000 people, 11.8 per 100 peopleRomania: 7.5 per 1,000 people, 35.8 per 100 peopleRussian Federation: 8.4 per 1,000 people, 27.1 per 100 peopleRwanda: 28.1 per 1,000 people, 0.596 per 100 peopleSaudi Arabia: 16.5 per 1,000 people, 44.1 per 100 peopleSudan: 33 per 1,000 people, 0.0604 per 100 peopleSenegal: 29.2 per 1,000 people, 4.04 per 100 peopleSingapore: 7.4 per 1,000 people, 27.8 per 100 peopleSolomon Islands: 26.7 per 1,000 people, 0.107 per 100 peopleSierra Leone: 30.1 per 1,000 people, 0.00227 per 100 peopleEl Salvador: 15.6 per 1,000 people, 12.5 per 100 peopleSan Marino: 4.2 per 1,000 people, 35.8 per 100 peopleSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 42.3 per 1,000 people, 0.723 per 100 peopleSerbia: 9.2 per 1,000 people, 33.4 per 100 peopleSao Tome and Principe: 28.1 per 1,000 people, 2.99 per 100 peopleSuriname: 17.2 per 1,000 people, 18.8 per 100 peopleSlovak Republic: 8.5 per 1,000 people, 33.8 per 100 peopleSlovenia: 7.9 per 1,000 people, 34.2 per 100 peopleSweden: 9.3 per 1,000 people, 40.6 per 100 peopleEswatini: 23.6 per 1,000 people, 2.51 per 100 peopleSeychelles: 11 per 1,000 people, 31.6 per 100 peopleSyrian Arab Republic: 23.2 per 1,000 people, 6.86 per 100 peopleChad: 43.3 per 1,000 people, 0 per 100 peopleTogo: 32.1 per 1,000 people, 1.42 per 100 peopleThailand: 8.12 per 1,000 people, 14.9 per 100 peopleTajikistan: 25.3 per 1,000 people, 0.984 per 100 peopleTurkmenistan: 20.9 per 1,000 people, 5.22 per 100 peopleTimor-Leste: 21.8 per 1,000 people, 0.006 per 100 peopleTonga: 23 per 1,000 people, 8.17 per 100 peopleTrinidad and Tobago: 10.5 per 1,000 people, 27 per 100 peopleTunisia: 13.4 per 1,000 people, 15 per 100 peopleTurkiye: 11 per 1,000 people, 23.4 per 100 peopleTuvalu: 22 per 1,000 people, 4.52 per 100 peopleTanzania: 34.8 per 1,000 people, 0.246 per 100 peopleUganda: 34.4 per 1,000 people, 0.208 per 100 peopleUkraine: 5.47 per 1,000 people, 21.7 per 100 peopleUruguay: 9.8 per 1,000 people, 33 per 100 peopleUnited States: 10.6 per 1,000 people, 38.9 per 100 peopleUzbekistan: 25.6 per 1,000 people, 34.7 per 100 peopleSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 12 per 1,000 people, 29.5 per 100 peopleVirgin Islands (U.S.): 11.1 per 1,000 people, 10.1 per 100 peopleViet Nam: 13.4 per 1,000 people, 23.7 per 100 peopleVanuatu: 27.7 per 1,000 people, 1.16 per 100 peopleSamoa: 25 per 1,000 people, 0.878 per 100 peopleSouth Africa: 18.5 per 1,000 people, 5.35 per 100 peopleZambia: 32.7 per 1,000 people, 0.79 per 100 peopleZimbabwe: 29.9 per 1,000 people, 1.94 per 100 peopleANDBMUBTNCAFCYMKORKWTPLWSOMTCDUZB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.7802.2e-41196
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.8593.3e-58196
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2410.001196
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.4513.8e-11196

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 196 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.539 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.259 (without UZB) to -0.211 (without GUY). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GUY (+0.031).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific31-0.47
Europe & Central Asia52-0.28
Latin America & Caribbean36-0.44
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22+0.18
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.47

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third66-0.44
Middle third65-0.34
Richest third65-0.39

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians112-0.40
Muslims49-0.08

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.41
Never a European colony21-0.24
Spain20-0.74
United Kingdom63-0.26

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.241 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 27years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link also shows up within countries over time (r = +0.402). It holds even when looking only at changes from one year to the next (r = +0.101). This is the strongest kind of evidence available here: it holds when each country is compared only with itself, and it is not just a product of shared trends.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.241for comparison
Within countries-0.351each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.402q = 0.000 · 206 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.101q = 4.0e-5
The direction flips. Comparing each country only with itself gives -0.35. Also taking out what happened to the whole world each year gives +0.40. So the first figure was picking up a trend both measures share with worldwide progress, not a link between them.
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • The association is much weaker in year-on-year changes than in levels, which points to shared country-specific trends.

4,325 country-years (one country in one year), 206 countries, 1998–2024, about 21 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 5% for Birth rate, 35% for Fixed broadband. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.50−0.5-100+10years Fixed broadband trails Birth rate →lag -10: r = 0.393 (n = 2,401)lag -9: r = 0.384 (n = 2,602)lag -8: r = 0.383 (n = 2,808)lag -7: r = 0.376 (n = 3,013)lag -6: r = 0.375 (n = 3,195)lag -5: r = 0.370 (n = 3,397)lag -4: r = 0.372 (n = 3,597)lag -3: r = 0.375 (n = 3,800)lag -2: r = 0.383 (n = 4,005)lag -1: r = 0.395 (n = 4,174)lag +0: r = 0.402 (n = 4,325)lag +1: r = 0.393 (n = 4,325)lag +2: r = 0.385 (n = 4,325)lag +3: r = 0.382 (n = 4,325)lag +4: r = 0.382 (n = 4,325)lag +5: r = 0.381 (n = 4,325)lag +6: r = 0.381 (n = 4,325)lag +7: r = 0.379 (n = 4,325)lag +8: r = 0.375 (n = 4,325)lag +9: r = 0.361 (n = 4,315)lag +10: r = 0.343 (n = 4,301)

Same year (lag 0): +0.402. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


per 1,000 people
per 100 people		Years
Central African Republic CAF46.20.01612024, 2022
Chad TCD43.302024
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM42.30.7232024, 2023
Niger NER41.40.1112024
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD40.90.0322024
Mali MLI39.50.7742024, 2022
Angola AGO37.20.3632024
Mozambique MOZ370.1422024
Afghanistan AFG350.08012024, 2023
Tanzania TZA34.80.2462024
Uganda UGA34.40.2082024
Mauritania MRT340.9472024
Benin BEN33.40.2772024
Cameroon CMR33.32.132024, 2022
Guinea GIN33.30.006282024, 2022

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth rate

Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Fixed broadband

Fixed broadband subscriptions (per 100 people)

International Telecommunication Union · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Subscriptions, not people. A household line counts once, however many people use it. A country that went straight to mobile data can be well connected with few of these lines. Internet users, already on the site, is the measure of people.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2021–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth rate and Fixed broadband

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth rate changes Fixed broadband, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth rate or Fixed broadband