placestats

Adult obesity vs. Unemployment

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 174 countries, Adult obesity and Unemployment rise and fall together at r = +0.14 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.18, q = 0.023, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of unemployment, 3.23% to 8.54% of labor force, adult obesity is worse by 1.51% of adults at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 1.82% of adults.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.140p = 0.065 · 174 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.182p = 0.016 · likely range [+0.03, +0.32]
p, allowing for regions0.141standard error 0.108 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.023across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Adult obesity · % of adultslink with income +0.34 · moderate
Unemployment · % of labor forcelink with income -0.00 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Adult obesity · % of adults →Unemployment · % of labor force →2.4%73.8%0.13%34.2%Afghanistan: 20.6% of adults, 13.4% of labor forceAngola: 12.7% of adults, 14.1% of labor forceAlbania: 24.1% of adults, 10.9% of labor forceUnited Arab Emirates: 31.6% of adults, 2.17% of labor forceArgentina: 37.2% of adults, 7.14% of labor forceArmenia: 25% of adults, 12.9% of labor forceAustralia: 30.6% of adults, 4.09% of labor forceAustria: 16.5% of adults, 5.58% of labor forceAzerbaijan: 27.6% of adults, 5.46% of labor forceBurundi: 5.18% of adults, 0.922% of labor forceBelgium: 20.8% of adults, 5.91% of labor forceBenin: 12.2% of adults, 1.59% of labor forceBurkina Faso: 7.69% of adults, 3.48% of labor forceBangladesh: 5.75% of adults, 3.78% of labor forceBulgaria: 20.3% of adults, 3.54% of labor forceBahrain: 34.9% of adults, 1.1% of labor forceBahamas, The: 48.3% of adults, 9.21% of labor forceBosnia and Herzegovina: 21% of adults, 11% of labor forceBelarus: 20.6% of adults, 3.38% of labor forceBelize: 43.4% of adults, 8.86% of labor forceBolivia: 29.7% of adults, 2.97% of labor forceBrazil: 30.1% of adults, 5.97% of labor forceBarbados: 39.4% of adults, 6.52% of labor forceBrunei Darussalam: 37.1% of adults, 5.28% of labor forceBhutan: 13.1% of adults, 3.23% of labor forceBotswana: 19.8% of adults, 24.5% of labor forceCentral African Republic: 10.9% of adults, 6.25% of labor forceCanada: 26% of adults, 6.91% of labor forceSwitzerland: 11.3% of adults, 4.87% of labor forceChile: 40.5% of adults, 8.97% of labor forceChina: 9.29% of adults, 4.62% of labor forceCote d'Ivoire: 12.8% of adults, 2.32% of labor forceCameroon: 16% of adults, 3.6% of labor forceCongo, Dem. Rep.: 6.69% of adults, 4.43% of labor forceCongo, Rep.: 12.2% of adults, 19.9% of labor forceColombia: 24.9% of adults, 8.29% of labor forceComoros: 16.8% of adults, 3.82% of labor forceCabo Verde: 16.7% of adults, 11.9% of labor forceCosta Rica: 32.7% of adults, 6.84% of labor forceCyprus: 21.6% of adults, 4.92% of labor forceCzechia: 26.3% of adults, 2.83% of labor forceGermany: 20.6% of adults, 3.71% of labor forceDjibouti: 11.7% of adults, 26% of labor forceDenmark: 14.3% of adults, 5.53% of labor forceDominican Republic: 30.8% of adults, 5.09% of labor forceAlgeria: 23.6% of adults, 11.6% of labor forceEcuador: 28.9% of adults, 3.31% of labor forceEgypt, Arab Rep.: 43.9% of adults, 6.78% of labor forceSpain: 15.3% of adults, 10.4% of labor forceEstonia: 20.3% of adults, 8.31% of labor forceEthiopia: 2.92% of adults, 3.32% of labor forceFinland: 24.2% of adults, 9.46% of labor forceFiji: 39% of adults, 5.35% of labor forceFrance: 11.2% of adults, 7.54% of labor forceGabon: 22.7% of adults, 20.2% of labor forceUnited Kingdom: 27.4% of adults, 4.75% of labor forceGeorgia: 35.7% of adults, 12.1% of labor forceGhana: 14.5% of adults, 2.98% of labor forceGuinea: 10.6% of adults, 5.16% of labor forceGambia, The: 12.4% of adults, 6.52% of labor forceGuinea-Bissau: 12.7% of adults, 2.67% of labor forceEquatorial Guinea: 19.2% of adults, 8.34% of labor forceGreece: 27.4% of adults, 8.54% of labor forceGuatemala: 28% of adults, 2.6% of labor forceGuyana: 30.1% of adults, 12% of labor forceHonduras: 31.8% of adults, 4.92% of labor forceCroatia: 30.8% of adults, 5% of labor forceHaiti: 11.1% of adults, 14.9% of labor forceHungary: 31.4% of adults, 4.52% of labor forceIndonesia: 11.8% of adults, 3.24% of labor forceIndia: 8.01% of adults, 4.22% of labor forceIreland: 27.9% of adults, 4.63% of labor forceIran, Islamic Rep.: 24.6% of adults, 8.3% of labor forceIraq: 39.7% of adults, 15.5% of labor forceIceland: 22.2% of adults, 3.63% of labor forceIsrael: 22.2% of adults, 3.49% of labor forceItaly: 14% of adults, 6.39% of labor forceJamaica: 35.2% of adults, 3.29% of labor forceJordan: 35.4% of adults, 16.5% of labor forceJapan: 5.9% of adults, 2.45% of labor forceKazakhstan: 21.1% of adults, 4.77% of labor forceKenya: 11.3% of adults, 5.45% of labor forceKyrgyz Republic: 22% of adults, 3.53% of labor forceCambodia: 4.92% of adults, 0.263% of labor forceKorea, Rep.: 8.37% of adults, 2.68% of labor forceKuwait: 40.4% of adults, 2.18% of labor forceLao PDR: 9.18% of adults, 1.19% of labor forceLebanon: 30.7% of adults, 11% of labor forceLiberia: 17.8% of adults, 2.88% of labor forceLibya: 33.7% of adults, 18.8% of labor forceSt. Lucia: 34.8% of adults, 9.45% of labor forceSri Lanka: 11.2% of adults, 4% of labor forceLesotho: 22.2% of adults, 16.3% of labor forceLithuania: 21.3% of adults, 6.73% of labor forceLuxembourg: 19% of adults, 6.34% of labor forceLatvia: 22.3% of adults, 6.57% of labor forceMorocco: 21.6% of adults, 9% of labor forceMoldova: 22.3% of adults, 1.5% of labor forceMadagascar: 4.51% of adults, 3.04% of labor forceMaldives: 17.9% of adults, 4.51% of labor forceMexico: 37.4% of adults, 2.67% of labor forceNorth Macedonia: 26.8% of adults, 12.3% of labor forceMali: 13.3% of adults, 2.83% of labor forceMalta: 30.6% of adults, 2.9% of labor forceMyanmar: 8.13% of adults, 3.05% of labor forceMontenegro: 17.1% of adults, 13.6% of labor forceMongolia: 25.1% of adults, 5.23% of labor forceMozambique: 10.6% of adults, 6.63% of labor forceMauritania: 24.1% of adults, 10.3% of labor forceMauritius: 21.1% of adults, 5.63% of labor forceMalawi: 8% of adults, 5.07% of labor forceMalaysia: 23.3% of adults, 3.76% of labor forceNamibia: 18.3% of adults, 19.3% of labor forceNiger: 6.77% of adults, 0.394% of labor forceNigeria: 13.7% of adults, 3.06% of labor forceNicaragua: 34.9% of adults, 5.04% of labor forceNetherlands: 14.7% of adults, 3.87% of labor forceNorway: 20.2% of adults, 4.64% of labor forceNepal: 7.96% of adults, 10.5% of labor forceNew Zealand: 34% of adults, 5.08% of labor forceOman: 30.5% of adults, 3.25% of labor forcePakistan: 24.5% of adults, 5.42% of labor forcePanama: 37.7% of adults, 8.36% of labor forcePeru: 29.2% of adults, 5.12% of labor forcePhilippines: 9.62% of adults, 2.23% of labor forcePapua New Guinea: 28% of adults, 2.57% of labor forcePoland: 21.8% of adults, 2.98% of labor forcePuerto Rico (US): 42.4% of adults, 5.99% of labor forcePortugal: 18.1% of adults, 6.16% of labor forceParaguay: 34.7% of adults, 4.8% of labor forceWest Bank and Gaza: 37.4% of adults, 24.4% of labor forceQatar: 42% of adults, 0.13% of labor forceRomania: 32.4% of adults, 5.99% of labor forceRussian Federation: 17.6% of adults, 2.13% of labor forceRwanda: 5.58% of adults, 11.4% of labor forceSaudi Arabia: 40.1% of adults, 3.04% of labor forceSudan: 17.8% of adults, 7.53% of labor forceSenegal: 11.6% of adults, 2.73% of labor forceSingapore: 17% of adults, 2.82% of labor forceSolomon Islands: 21.8% of adults, 1.43% of labor forceSierra Leone: 8.19% of adults, 3.15% of labor forceEl Salvador: 32.2% of adults, 3.3% of labor forceSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 14.9% of adults, 18.9% of labor forceSerbia: 21.8% of adults, 7.12% of labor forceSao Tome and Principe: 17.9% of adults, 9.13% of labor forceSuriname: 30.8% of adults, 7.83% of labor forceSlovak Republic: 26.1% of adults, 5.36% of labor forceSlovenia: 19.8% of adults, 3.17% of labor forceSweden: 17.5% of adults, 8.69% of labor forceEswatini: 29.6% of adults, 34.2% of labor forceSyrian Arab Republic: 33% of adults, 13.6% of labor forceChad: 7.4% of adults, 1.06% of labor forceTogo: 13.4% of adults, 2% of labor forceThailand: 16.4% of adults, 0.781% of labor forceTajikistan: 23.1% of adults, 6.93% of labor forceTurkmenistan: 22.2% of adults, 4.27% of labor forceTimor-Leste: 3.61% of adults, 1.59% of labor forceTonga: 73.8% of adults, 2.01% of labor forceTrinidad and Tobago: 30.9% of adults, 3.33% of labor forceTunisia: 26.1% of adults, 15.1% of labor forceTurkiye: 28.8% of adults, 8.52% of labor forceTanzania: 11.5% of adults, 1.57% of labor forceUganda: 9.47% of adults, 2.75% of labor forceUkraine: 22.8% of adults, 9.83% of labor forceUruguay: 34.9% of adults, 7.52% of labor forceUnited States: 41% of adults, 4.2% of labor forceUzbekistan: 31.2% of adults, 4.62% of labor forceSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 34.6% of adults, 18% of labor forceViet Nam: 2.4% of adults, 1.52% of labor forceVanuatu: 22.6% of adults, 5.07% of labor forceSamoa: 64.3% of adults, 5% of labor forceSouth Africa: 31.8% of adults, 32.4% of labor forceZambia: 11.6% of adults, 5.92% of labor forceZimbabwe: 14.7% of adults, 9.29% of labor forceDJIKHMPSEQATSWZTLSTONVNMWSMZAF

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.1400.065174
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.2470.001174
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1820.016174
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2620.000174

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 174 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.042 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.156 (without PSE) to +0.227 (without TON). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: TON (+0.044).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23+0.47
Europe & Central Asia48+0.04
Latin America & Caribbean28-0.17
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22-0.01
Sub-Saharan Africa45+0.59

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third58+0.12
Middle third58+0.19
Richest third58+0.00

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians105+0.03
Muslims49+0.45

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.41
Never a European colony21+0.33
Spain19-0.07
United Kingdom55+0.12

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.238 after dropping 14 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 34years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.061, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose adult obesity moved did not tend to see their unemployment move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.182for comparison
Within countries-0.092each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.061q = 0.268 · 181 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.002q = 0.945

6,145 country-years (one country in one year), 181 countries, 1991–2024, about 34 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 16% for Adult obesity, 17% for Unemployment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Unemployment trails Adult obesity →lag -10: r = -0.014 (n = 4,344)lag -9: r = -0.016 (n = 4,525)lag -8: r = -0.013 (n = 4,706)lag -7: r = -0.005 (n = 4,887)lag -6: r = 0.006 (n = 5,068)lag -5: r = 0.017 (n = 5,249)lag -4: r = 0.037 (n = 5,430)lag -3: r = 0.047 (n = 5,611)lag -2: r = 0.054 (n = 5,791)lag -1: r = 0.058 (n = 5,969)lag +0: r = 0.061 (n = 6,145)lag +1: r = 0.062 (n = 6,321)lag +2: r = 0.073 (n = 6,140)lag +3: r = 0.085 (n = 5,959)lag +4: r = 0.092 (n = 5,778)lag +5: r = 0.096 (n = 5,597)lag +6: r = 0.098 (n = 5,416)lag +7: r = 0.099 (n = 5,235)lag +8: r = 0.098 (n = 5,054)lag +9: r = 0.094 (n = 4,873)lag +10: r = 0.087 (n = 4,692)

Same year (lag 0): +0.061. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of adults
% of labor force		Years
Tonga TON73.8%2.01%2024, 2025
Samoa WSM64.3%5%2024, 2025
Bahamas, The BHS48.3%9.21%2024, 2025
Egypt, Arab Rep. EGY43.9%6.78%2024, 2025
Belize BLZ43.4%8.86%2024, 2025
Puerto Rico (US) PRI42.4%5.99%2024, 2025
Qatar QAT42%0.13%2024, 2025
United States USA41%4.2%2024, 2025
Chile CHL40.5%8.97%2024, 2025
Kuwait KWT40.4%2.18%2024, 2025
Saudi Arabia SAU40.1%3.04%2024, 2025
Iraq IRQ39.7%15.5%2024, 2025
Barbados BRB39.4%6.52%2024, 2025
Fiji FJI39%5.35%2024, 2025
Panama PAN37.7%8.36%2024, 2025

World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Adult obesity

Prevalence of obesity among adults, age-standardised

World Health Organization · via Our World in Data · CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 · updated annual

Adults with a body mass index (weight compared with height) over 30. Adjusted to one age mix, so an older country and a younger one can be compared fairly. Estimated with a statistical model from surveys. It rises with income across the poorer half of the world, then stops rising across the richer half. Adjusting for GDP assumes a straight-line link, so it cannot capture that bend.

Unemployment

Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2021–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Adult obesity and Unemployment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Adult obesity changes Unemployment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Adult obesity or Unemployment