placestats

Unemployment vs. Youth not in work or study

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 162 countries, Unemployment and Youth not in work or study rise and fall together at r = +0.41 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.45, q = 0.0032, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of unemployment, 3.19% to 8.35% of labor force, youth not in work or study is worse by 4.23% of 15 to 24 year olds at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.93% of 15 to 24 year olds.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.405p = 8.7e-8 · 162 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.452p = 1.7e-9 · likely range [+0.32, +0.57]
p, allowing for regions4.8e-5standard error 0.044 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.003across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Unemployment · % of labor forcelink with income -0.00 · independent
Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year oldslink with income -0.63 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Unemployment · % of labor force →Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year olds →0.263%34.2%3.14%65.7%Afghanistan: 13.4% of labor force, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAngola: 14.1% of labor force, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlbania: 10.9% of labor force, 21% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Arab Emirates: 2.17% of labor force, 8.92% of 15 to 24 year oldsArgentina: 7.14% of labor force, 15.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsArmenia: 12.9% of labor force, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustralia: 4.09% of labor force, 8.53% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustria: 5.58% of labor force, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsAzerbaijan: 5.46% of labor force, 9.64% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurundi: 0.922% of labor force, 11.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelgium: 5.91% of labor force, 8.15% of 15 to 24 year oldsBenin: 1.59% of labor force, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurkina Faso: 3.48% of labor force, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsBangladesh: 3.78% of labor force, 15.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsBulgaria: 3.54% of labor force, 10.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBosnia and Herzegovina: 11% of labor force, 14.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelarus: 3.38% of labor force, 65.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelize: 8.86% of labor force, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBolivia: 2.97% of labor force, 8.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrazil: 5.97% of labor force, 18.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBarbados: 6.52% of labor force, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrunei Darussalam: 5.28% of labor force, 19% of 15 to 24 year oldsBhutan: 3.23% of labor force, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBotswana: 24.5% of labor force, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsCanada: 6.91% of labor force, 13.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSwitzerland: 4.87% of labor force, 6.99% of 15 to 24 year oldsChile: 8.97% of labor force, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCote d'Ivoire: 2.32% of labor force, 18.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsCameroon: 3.6% of labor force, 23.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 4.43% of labor force, 31.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsColombia: 8.29% of labor force, 22% of 15 to 24 year oldsComoros: 3.82% of labor force, 21.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCabo Verde: 11.9% of labor force, 28% of 15 to 24 year oldsCosta Rica: 6.84% of labor force, 19.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCyprus: 4.92% of labor force, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCzechia: 2.83% of labor force, 4.62% of 15 to 24 year oldsGermany: 3.71% of labor force, 7.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsDjibouti: 26% of labor force, 44% of 15 to 24 year oldsDenmark: 5.53% of labor force, 6.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsDominican Republic: 5.09% of labor force, 24.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlgeria: 11.6% of labor force, 20.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEcuador: 3.31% of labor force, 17.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 6.78% of labor force, 23.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSpain: 10.4% of labor force, 10.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsEstonia: 8.31% of labor force, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsEthiopia: 3.32% of labor force, 17.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsFinland: 9.46% of labor force, 8.28% of 15 to 24 year oldsFiji: 5.35% of labor force, 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsFrance: 7.54% of labor force, 12.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsGabon: 20.2% of labor force, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Kingdom: 4.75% of labor force, 14.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGeorgia: 12.1% of labor force, 14.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGhana: 2.98% of labor force, 23.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea: 5.16% of labor force, 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsGambia, The: 6.52% of labor force, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea-Bissau: 2.67% of labor force, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsGreece: 8.54% of labor force, 10.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuatemala: 2.6% of labor force, 24% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuyana: 12% of labor force, 44.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsHong Kong SAR, China: 2.8% of labor force, 5.95% of 15 to 24 year oldsHonduras: 4.92% of labor force, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsCroatia: 5% of labor force, 8.08% of 15 to 24 year oldsHaiti: 14.9% of labor force, 21.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsHungary: 4.52% of labor force, 9.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndonesia: 3.24% of labor force, 21.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndia: 4.22% of labor force, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsIreland: 4.63% of labor force, 5.67% of 15 to 24 year oldsIran, Islamic Rep.: 8.3% of labor force, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsIraq: 15.5% of labor force, 36.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsIceland: 3.63% of labor force, 3.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIsrael: 3.49% of labor force, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsItaly: 6.39% of labor force, 12% of 15 to 24 year oldsJamaica: 3.29% of labor force, 19.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsJordan: 16.5% of labor force, 29.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsJapan: 2.45% of labor force, 3.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsKazakhstan: 4.77% of labor force, 9.49% of 15 to 24 year oldsKenya: 5.45% of labor force, 18.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsKyrgyz Republic: 3.53% of labor force, 19.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsCambodia: 0.263% of labor force, 6.32% of 15 to 24 year oldsLao PDR: 1.19% of labor force, 22.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLebanon: 11% of labor force, 23.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLiberia: 2.88% of labor force, 39.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsSt. Lucia: 9.45% of labor force, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSri Lanka: 4% of labor force, 17.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLesotho: 16.3% of labor force, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsLithuania: 6.73% of labor force, 14.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsLuxembourg: 6.34% of labor force, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLatvia: 6.57% of labor force, 9.89% of 15 to 24 year oldsMacao SAR, China: 2.35% of labor force, 4.96% of 15 to 24 year oldsMorocco: 9% of labor force, 35.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMoldova: 1.5% of labor force, 9.05% of 15 to 24 year oldsMadagascar: 3.04% of labor force, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMaldives: 4.51% of labor force, 26.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMexico: 2.67% of labor force, 16.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorth Macedonia: 12.3% of labor force, 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsMali: 2.83% of labor force, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalta: 2.9% of labor force, 7.84% of 15 to 24 year oldsMyanmar: 3.05% of labor force, 15% of 15 to 24 year oldsMontenegro: 13.6% of labor force, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMongolia: 5.23% of labor force, 9.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMozambique: 6.63% of labor force, 19.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritania: 10.3% of labor force, 44.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritius: 5.63% of labor force, 13.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalawi: 5.07% of labor force, 39.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalaysia: 3.76% of labor force, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsNamibia: 19.3% of labor force, 31.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNiger: 0.394% of labor force, 15.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsNigeria: 3.06% of labor force, 11.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNicaragua: 5.04% of labor force, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsNetherlands: 3.87% of labor force, 4.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorway: 4.64% of labor force, 5.82% of 15 to 24 year oldsNepal: 10.5% of labor force, 34.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsNew Zealand: 5.08% of labor force, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsOman: 3.25% of labor force, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPakistan: 5.42% of labor force, 28.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPanama: 8.36% of labor force, 15.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPeru: 5.12% of labor force, 22.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsPhilippines: 2.23% of labor force, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsPapua New Guinea: 2.57% of labor force, 27.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsPoland: 2.98% of labor force, 10.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPuerto Rico (US): 5.99% of labor force, 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPortugal: 6.16% of labor force, 7.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsParaguay: 4.8% of labor force, 18.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsWest Bank and Gaza: 24.4% of labor force, 25.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsRomania: 5.99% of labor force, 17% of 15 to 24 year oldsRussian Federation: 2.13% of labor force, 6.68% of 15 to 24 year oldsRwanda: 11.4% of labor force, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSaudi Arabia: 3.04% of labor force, 16.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsSudan: 7.53% of labor force, 46.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSenegal: 2.73% of labor force, 35.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSingapore: 2.82% of labor force, 6.46% of 15 to 24 year oldsSolomon Islands: 1.43% of labor force, 7.04% of 15 to 24 year oldsSierra Leone: 3.15% of labor force, 25.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEl Salvador: 3.3% of labor force, 20.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 18.9% of labor force, 51% of 15 to 24 year oldsSerbia: 7.12% of labor force, 12.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsSao Tome and Principe: 9.13% of labor force, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSuriname: 7.83% of labor force, 18.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovak Republic: 5.36% of labor force, 8.75% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovenia: 3.17% of labor force, 7.13% of 15 to 24 year oldsSweden: 8.69% of labor force, 5.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsEswatini: 34.2% of labor force, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsChad: 1.06% of labor force, 42.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTogo: 2% of labor force, 13% of 15 to 24 year oldsThailand: 0.781% of labor force, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsTajikistan: 6.93% of labor force, 41.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTimor-Leste: 1.59% of labor force, 29.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsTonga: 2.01% of labor force, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTrinidad and Tobago: 3.33% of labor force, 15.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsTunisia: 15.1% of labor force, 22.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTurkiye: 8.52% of labor force, 22.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsTanzania: 1.57% of labor force, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUganda: 2.75% of labor force, 13.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUkraine: 9.83% of labor force, 16.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsUruguay: 7.52% of labor force, 14% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited States: 4.2% of labor force, 11.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsViet Nam: 1.52% of labor force, 10.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsVanuatu: 5.07% of labor force, 29.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSamoa: 5% of labor force, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsSouth Africa: 32.4% of labor force, 34.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsZambia: 5.92% of labor force, 26.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsZimbabwe: 9.29% of labor force, 36% of 15 to 24 year oldsBLRDJIJPNKHMLBRMACPSESWZTCDZAF

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.4058.7e-8162
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.3524.3e-6162
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.4521.7e-9162
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.5076.6e-12162

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 162 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.047 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.428 (without DJI) to +0.519 (without BLR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BLR (+0.066).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23+0.48
Europe & Central Asia46+0.02
Latin America & Caribbean26+0.33
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17+0.20
Sub-Saharan Africa42+0.53

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third54+0.50
Middle third54+0.40
Richest third54+0.44

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians100+0.40
Muslims42+0.47

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France22+0.48
Never a European colony17+0.38
Spain18+0.53
United Kingdom49+0.65

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.432 after dropping 11 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link also shows up within countries over time (r = +0.308). It holds even when looking only at changes from one year to the next (r = +0.238). This is the strongest kind of evidence available here: it holds when each country is compared only with itself, and it is not just a product of shared trends.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.452for comparison
Within countries+0.363each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.308q = 0.000 · 121 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.238q = 0.000

2,244 country-years (one country in one year), 121 countries, 1991–2025, about 19 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 22% for Unemployment, 22% for Youth not in work or study. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.40−0.4-100+10years Youth not in work or study trails Unemployment →lag -10: r = -0.016 (n = 1,280)lag -9: r = -0.038 (n = 1,388)lag -8: r = -0.062 (n = 1,483)lag -7: r = -0.054 (n = 1,569)lag -6: r = -0.007 (n = 1,678)lag -5: r = 0.074 (n = 1,795)lag -4: r = 0.142 (n = 1,904)lag -3: r = 0.199 (n = 2,028)lag -2: r = 0.255 (n = 2,132)lag -1: r = 0.287 (n = 2,224)lag +0: r = 0.308 (n = 2,244)lag +1: r = 0.252 (n = 2,227)lag +2: r = 0.175 (n = 2,212)lag +3: r = 0.098 (n = 2,199)lag +4: r = 0.035 (n = 2,181)lag +5: r = -0.007 (n = 2,163)lag +6: r = -0.063 (n = 2,138)lag +7: r = -0.095 (n = 2,110)lag +8: r = -0.104 (n = 2,085)lag +9: r = -0.107 (n = 2,049)lag +10: r = -0.093 (n = 2,008)

Same year (lag 0): +0.308. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of labor force
% of 15 to 24 year olds		Years
Eswatini SWZ34.2%36.5%2025, 2023
South Africa ZAF32.4%34.6%2025, 2024
Djibouti DJI26%44%2025
Botswana BWA24.5%38%2025, 2024
West Bank and Gaza PSE24.4%25.8%2022, 2025
Gabon GAB20.2%20.2%2025, 2024
Namibia NAM19.3%31.9%2025, 2018
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM18.9%51%2025, 2022
Jordan JOR16.5%29.4%2025, 2024
Lesotho LSO16.3%38%2025, 2024
Iraq IRQ15.5%36.9%2025, 2021
Tunisia TUN15.1%22.6%2025, 2023
Haiti HTI14.9%21.1%2025, 2012
Angola AGO14.1%24.9%2025
Montenegro MNE13.6%14.2%2025, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Unemployment

Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Youth not in work or study

Share of youth not in education, employment or training, total (% of youth population)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

From labour force surveys, so yearly for about a hundred countries and occasional elsewhere.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Unemployment and Youth not in work or study

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Unemployment changes Youth not in work or study, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Unemployment or Youth not in work or study