placestats

Adult obesity vs. Indigenous American ancestry

Holds up after adjusting for income

A country is not a person, and ancestry is not destiny. Countries where more people have ancestors from one part of the world also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does notfollow that people with that ancestry are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. Ancestry also goes very closely with region and with history, including colonisation and the Atlantic slave trade, and with national income. So much of what looks like ancestry here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures and the region-by-region view are for. The shares are one estimate, for around the year 2000, of where people’s ancestors lived in 1500, not how anyone identifies.

Across 157 countries, Adult obesity and Indigenous American ancestry rise and fall together at r = +0.36 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.40, q = 0.021, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.360p = 3.6e-6 · 157 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.396p = 3.1e-7 · likely range [+0.25, +0.52]
p, allowing for regions0.235standard error 0.300 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.021across 13,797 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Adult obesity · % of adultslink with income +0.34 · moderate
Indigenous American ancestry · % of populationlink with income +0.11 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Adult obesity · % of adults →Indigenous American ancestry · % of population →2.4%43.9%0%73.9%Afghanistan: 20.6% of adults, 0% of populationAngola: 12.7% of adults, 0% of populationAlbania: 24.1% of adults, 0% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 31.6% of adults, 0% of populationArgentina: 37.2% of adults, 5% of populationArmenia: 25% of adults, 0% of populationAustralia: 30.6% of adults, 0% of populationAustria: 16.5% of adults, 0% of populationAzerbaijan: 27.6% of adults, 0% of populationBurundi: 5.18% of adults, 0% of populationBelgium: 20.8% of adults, 0% of populationBenin: 12.2% of adults, 0% of populationBurkina Faso: 7.69% of adults, 0% of populationBangladesh: 5.75% of adults, 0% of populationBulgaria: 20.3% of adults, 0% of populationBahrain: 34.9% of adults, 0% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 21% of adults, 0% of populationBelarus: 20.6% of adults, 0% of populationBelize: 43.4% of adults, 38.5% of populationBolivia: 29.7% of adults, 72.4% of populationBrazil: 30.1% of adults, 9.08% of populationBhutan: 13.1% of adults, 0% of populationBotswana: 19.8% of adults, 0% of populationCentral African Republic: 10.9% of adults, 0% of populationCanada: 26% of adults, 3.27% of populationSwitzerland: 11.3% of adults, 0% of populationChile: 40.5% of adults, 37.3% of populationChina: 9.29% of adults, 0% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 12.8% of adults, 0% of populationCameroon: 16% of adults, 0% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 6.69% of adults, 0% of populationCongo, Rep.: 12.2% of adults, 0% of populationColombia: 24.9% of adults, 37.1% of populationComoros: 16.8% of adults, 0% of populationCabo Verde: 16.7% of adults, 0% of populationCosta Rica: 32.7% of adults, 29.7% of populationCyprus: 21.6% of adults, 0% of populationCzechia: 26.3% of adults, 0% of populationGermany: 20.6% of adults, 0% of populationDenmark: 14.3% of adults, 0% of populationDominican Republic: 30.8% of adults, 3.6% of populationAlgeria: 23.6% of adults, 0% of populationEcuador: 28.9% of adults, 61.1% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 43.9% of adults, 0% of populationSpain: 15.3% of adults, 0% of populationEstonia: 20.3% of adults, 0% of populationEthiopia: 2.92% of adults, 0% of populationFinland: 24.2% of adults, 0% of populationFiji: 39% of adults, 0% of populationFrance: 11.2% of adults, 0% of populationGabon: 22.7% of adults, 0% of populationUnited Kingdom: 27.4% of adults, 0% of populationGeorgia: 35.7% of adults, 0% of populationGhana: 14.5% of adults, 0% of populationGuinea: 10.6% of adults, 0% of populationGambia, The: 12.4% of adults, 0% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 12.7% of adults, 0% of populationEquatorial Guinea: 19.2% of adults, 0% of populationGreece: 27.4% of adults, 0% of populationGuatemala: 28% of adults, 73.9% of populationGuyana: 30.1% of adults, 5% of populationHonduras: 31.8% of adults, 52% of populationCroatia: 30.8% of adults, 0% of populationHaiti: 11.1% of adults, 0% of populationHungary: 31.4% of adults, 0% of populationIndonesia: 11.8% of adults, 0% of populationIndia: 8.01% of adults, 0% of populationIreland: 27.9% of adults, 0% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 24.6% of adults, 0% of populationIraq: 39.7% of adults, 0% of populationIsrael: 22.2% of adults, 0% of populationItaly: 14% of adults, 0% of populationJamaica: 35.2% of adults, 0% of populationJordan: 35.4% of adults, 0% of populationJapan: 5.9% of adults, 0% of populationKazakhstan: 21.1% of adults, 0% of populationKenya: 11.3% of adults, 0% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 22% of adults, 0% of populationCambodia: 4.92% of adults, 0% of populationKorea, Rep.: 8.37% of adults, 0% of populationKuwait: 40.4% of adults, 0% of populationLao PDR: 9.18% of adults, 0% of populationLebanon: 30.7% of adults, 0% of populationLiberia: 17.8% of adults, 0% of populationLibya: 33.7% of adults, 0% of populationSri Lanka: 11.2% of adults, 0% of populationLesotho: 22.2% of adults, 0% of populationLithuania: 21.3% of adults, 0% of populationLuxembourg: 19% of adults, 0% of populationLatvia: 22.3% of adults, 0% of populationMorocco: 21.6% of adults, 0% of populationMoldova: 22.3% of adults, 0% of populationMadagascar: 4.51% of adults, 0% of populationMexico: 37.4% of adults, 62.5% of populationNorth Macedonia: 26.8% of adults, 0% of populationMali: 13.3% of adults, 0% of populationMalta: 30.6% of adults, 0% of populationMyanmar: 8.13% of adults, 0% of populationMongolia: 25.1% of adults, 0% of populationMozambique: 10.6% of adults, 0% of populationMauritania: 24.1% of adults, 0% of populationMauritius: 21.1% of adults, 0% of populationMalawi: 8% of adults, 0% of populationMalaysia: 23.3% of adults, 0% of populationNamibia: 18.3% of adults, 0% of populationNiger: 6.77% of adults, 0% of populationNigeria: 13.7% of adults, 0% of populationNicaragua: 34.9% of adults, 40% of populationNetherlands: 14.7% of adults, 0% of populationNorway: 20.2% of adults, 0% of populationNepal: 7.96% of adults, 0% of populationNew Zealand: 34% of adults, 0% of populationOman: 30.5% of adults, 0% of populationPakistan: 24.5% of adults, 0% of populationPanama: 37.7% of adults, 35.7% of populationPeru: 29.2% of adults, 64.2% of populationPhilippines: 9.62% of adults, 0% of populationPapua New Guinea: 28% of adults, 0% of populationPoland: 21.8% of adults, 0% of populationPuerto Rico (US): 42.4% of adults, 17.9% of populationPortugal: 18.1% of adults, 0.06% of populationParaguay: 34.7% of adults, 46.1% of populationQatar: 42% of adults, 0% of populationRomania: 32.4% of adults, 0% of populationRussian Federation: 17.6% of adults, 0% of populationRwanda: 5.58% of adults, 0% of populationSaudi Arabia: 40.1% of adults, 0% of populationSudan: 17.8% of adults, 0% of populationSenegal: 11.6% of adults, 0% of populationSingapore: 17% of adults, 0% of populationSierra Leone: 8.19% of adults, 0% of populationEl Salvador: 32.2% of adults, 50% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 14.9% of adults, 0% of populationSlovak Republic: 26.1% of adults, 0% of populationSlovenia: 19.8% of adults, 0% of populationSweden: 17.5% of adults, 0% of populationEswatini: 29.6% of adults, 0% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 33% of adults, 0% of populationChad: 7.4% of adults, 0% of populationTogo: 13.4% of adults, 0% of populationThailand: 16.4% of adults, 0% of populationTajikistan: 23.1% of adults, 0% of populationTurkmenistan: 22.2% of adults, 0% of populationTimor-Leste: 3.61% of adults, 0% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 30.9% of adults, 0% of populationTunisia: 26.1% of adults, 0% of populationTurkiye: 28.8% of adults, 0% of populationTanzania: 11.5% of adults, 0% of populationUganda: 9.47% of adults, 0% of populationUkraine: 22.8% of adults, 0% of populationUruguay: 34.9% of adults, 4% of populationUnited States: 41% of adults, 9.53% of populationUzbekistan: 31.2% of adults, 0% of populationViet Nam: 2.4% of adults, 0% of populationSouth Africa: 31.8% of adults, 0% of populationZambia: 11.6% of adults, 0% of populationZimbabwe: 14.7% of adults, 0% of populationBOLEGYETHGTMKWTMEXPERQATTLSVNM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.3603.6e-6157
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.4513.1e-9157
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3963.1e-7157
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4503.8e-9157

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 157 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.036 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.374 (without BLZ) to +0.409 (without EGY). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BLZ (-0.023).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions
  • much weaker within regions than across them (largely a between-region difference)

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
Europe & Central Asia45-0.12
Latin America & Caribbean23+0.25

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third53+0.48
Middle third52+0.33
Richest third52+0.38

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians92+0.54

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Spain19+0.54
United Kingdom46+0.33

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.396 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of adults
% of population		Years
Egypt, Arab Rep. EGY43.9%0%2024, 2000
Belize BLZ43.4%38.5%2024, 2000
Puerto Rico (US) PRI42.4%17.9%2024, 2000
Qatar QAT42%0%2024, 2000
United States USA41%9.53%2024, 2000
Chile CHL40.5%37.3%2024, 2000
Kuwait KWT40.4%0%2024, 2000
Saudi Arabia SAU40.1%0%2024, 2000
Iraq IRQ39.7%0%2024, 2000
Fiji FJI39%0%2024, 2000
Panama PAN37.7%35.7%2024, 2000
Mexico MEX37.4%62.5%2024, 2000
Argentina ARG37.2%5%2024, 2000
Georgia GEO35.7%0%2024, 2000
Jordan JOR35.4%0%2024, 2000

World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory
Putterman, L. and Weil, D. N. (2010), 'Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality', Quarterly Journal of Economics 125(4); World Migration Matrix version 1.1 (2009).

Sources

Adult obesity

Prevalence of obesity among adults, age-standardised

World Health Organization · via Our World in Data · CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 · updated annual

Adults with a body mass index (weight compared with height) over 30. Adjusted to one age mix, so an older country and a younger one can be compared fairly. Estimated with a statistical model from surveys. It rises with income across the poorer half of the world, then stops rising across the richer half. Adjusting for GDP assumes a straight-line link, so it cannot capture that bend.

Indigenous American ancestry

Indigenous American ancestry (share of the population)

Louis Putterman and David N. Weil, Brown University · No licence stated; used with citation · updated one edition (version 1.1, 2009)

The estimated share of today's population whose ancestors in the year 1500 lived in the Americas, whose people in 1500 were all Indigenous. This is the closest thing to race shares that can be compared across countries: national censuses each use their own race and ethnic categories, and most countries record none. It is about where people's ancestors lived, not how anyone identifies, and it is one estimate for around the year 2000, built from history, migration records and genetic studies. Every country's six ancestry shares add up to 100%, so they are linked to each other by arithmetic. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2000–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 13,797 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Adult obesity and Indigenous American ancestry

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Adult obesity changes Indigenous American ancestry, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Adult obesity or Indigenous American ancestry