Median property tax bill and Firearm fatalities
Across 2,009 counties, Median property tax bill and Firearm fatalities have a link of -0.56, on a scale from −1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). But compare places with the same population density, income and education, and a weak link of -0.22 remains. Most of the first figure came from both measures following how urban, rich and educated a place is, not from a link with each other.
Mostly gone after adjusting
Every place, plotted
One dot for each place reporting both measures. Hover over or tap a dot to see its name and values. The thin line is the straight line that best fits the dots. The bold line, shown for counties, is the link after adjusting for density, income and education. A dot far from the lines is a place that does not follow the pattern.
Loading every place…
What each measure is
Median property tax bill
The yearly property tax bill, in dollars, of the middle home-owning household that pays one. Households with no bill are left out, so this is what payers pay, not the average across all owners.
Census ACS 5-year · ACS table B25103_001
Firearm fatalities
Deaths involving a gun per 100,000 people. Most are suicides and homicides, counted together.
County Health Rankings · County Health Rankings v148
Highest and lowest
Where each measure is highest and lowest among the places reporting both (2023), with the other measure beside it. This is shown for every size of place where both are published. Metro-area values are added up from their counties. A measure that cannot be added up across counties, such as a middle value (median), has no metro figure. Counts are shown per 1,000 residents, since raw totals would only list the largest places. Cities and towns and ZIP codes are shown where the Census survey or the CDC publishes them; most other sources stop at the county. They are shown for places of 5,000 residents or more, and only where the survey’s margin of error is small enough for the figure to be usable. The CDC publishes its health estimates for cities in a version adjusted for age, so places with older or younger people can be compared fairly, but not for ZIP codes.
Counties
By median property tax bill
| Median property tax bill | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest — 15 are at $10,000 or more; five shown. | ||
| Bergen County, NJ | $10,000 or more | 2.1 |
| Essex County, NJ | $10,000 or more | 9.38 |
| Hunterdon County, NJ | $10,000 or more | 4.89 |
| Monmouth County, NJ | $10,000 or more | 2.92 |
| Morris County, NJ | $10,000 or more | 2.48 |
| Lowest | ||
| Northwest Arctic Borough, AK | $200 or less | 36.9 |
| Kusilvak Census Area, AK | $200 or less | 62.5 |
| Oglala Lakota County, SD | $200 or less | 33 |
| Allen Parish, LA | $200 or less | 21.4 |
| Madison Parish, LA | 208 | 38.4 |
By firearm fatalities
| Median property tax bill | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Phillips County, AR | 500 | 79.5 |
| Leflore County, MS | 1,037 | 70.5 |
| Wilcox County, AL | 309 | 63.8 |
| Kusilvak Census Area, AK | $200 or less | 62.5 |
| Lowndes County, AL | 329 | 61.1 |
| Lowest | ||
| Middlesex County, MA | 7,240 | 1.86 |
| Bergen County, NJ | $10,000 or more | 2.1 |
| Norfolk County, MA | 7,081 | 2.18 |
| Rockland County, NY | $10,000 or more | 2.29 |
| Nassau County, NY | $10,000 or more | 2.32 |
States
By median property tax bill
| Median property tax bill | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| New Jersey | 9,541 | 4.81 |
| Connecticut | 6,575 | 6.11 |
| New Hampshire | 6,505 | 10.5 |
| New York | 6,450 | 4.9 |
| Massachusetts | 5,813 | 3.7 |
| Lowest | ||
| Alabama | 738 | 23.7 |
| West Virginia | 835 | 17.9 |
| Arkansas | 1,003 | 21.1 |
| Louisiana | 1,146 | 24.9 |
| Mississippi | 1,189 | 27.1 |
By firearm fatalities
| Median property tax bill | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Mississippi | 1,189 | 27.1 |
| Louisiana | 1,146 | 24.9 |
| New Mexico | 1,669 | 24.1 |
| Wyoming | 1,659 | 23.8 |
| Alabama | 738 | 23.7 |
| Lowest | ||
| Massachusetts | 5,813 | 3.7 |
| Hawaii | 2,183 | 4.32 |
| Rhode Island | 4,854 | 4.47 |
| New Jersey | 9,541 | 4.81 |
| New York | 6,450 | 4.9 |
Metro areas — Median property tax bill is not published for metro areas
By firearm fatalities
| Median property tax bill | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest | ||
| Greenwood, MS | — | 61.5 |
| Greenville, MS | — | 58.3 |
| Selma, AL | — | 48.4 |
| Pine Bluff, AR | — | 43.9 |
| Payson, AZ | — | 40.4 |
| Lowest | ||
| Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH | — | 3.48 |
| Worcester, MA | — | 3.49 |
| Urban Honolulu, HI | — | 3.58 |
| New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ | — | 3.65 |
| Bridgeport-Stamford-Danbury, CT | — | 3.83 |
Cities and towns — Firearm fatalities is not published for cities and towns
By median property tax bill
| Median property tax bill | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest — 491 are at $10,000 or more; five shown. | ||
| Key Biscayne village, FL | $10,000 or more | — |
| Palm Beach town, FL | $10,000 or more | — |
| Parkland city, FL | $10,000 or more | — |
| Pinecrest village, FL | $10,000 or more | — |
| Barrington village, IL | $10,000 or more | — |
| Lowest — 11 are at $200 or less; five shown. | ||
| Vega Alta zona urbana, PR | $200 or less | — |
| Las Piedras zona urbana, PR | $200 or less | — |
| Juncos zona urbana, PR | $200 or less | — |
| Ville Platte city, LA | $200 or less | — |
| Tallulah city, LA | $200 or less | — |
ZIP codes — Firearm fatalities is not published for ZIP codes
By median property tax bill
| Median property tax bill | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Highest — 712 are at $10,000 or more; five shown. | ||
| ZIP 10003 (New York city, NY) | $10,000 or more | — |
| ZIP 10005 (New York city, NY) | $10,000 or more | — |
| ZIP 10007 (New York city, NY) | $10,000 or more | — |
| ZIP 10010 (New York city, NY) | $10,000 or more | — |
| ZIP 10011 (New York city, NY) | $10,000 or more | — |
| Lowest — 28 are at $200 or less; five shown. | ||
| ZIP 00783 (Corozal Municipio, PR) | $200 or less | — |
| ZIP 00782 (Comerío Municipio, PR) | $200 or less | — |
| ZIP 00777 (Juncos Municipio, PR) | $200 or less | — |
| ZIP 00765 (Vieques Municipio, PR) | $200 or less | — |
| ZIP 00723 (Patillas Municipio, PR) | $200 or less | — |
Counties furthest from the pattern
Compared with the straight line that best fits all 2,010 counties: the five with far more firearm fatalities than their median property tax bill would suggest, and the five with far less.
| Median property tax bill | Firearm fatalities | |
|---|---|---|
| Above the line | ||
| Phillips County, AR | 500 | 79.5 |
| Leflore County, MS | 1,037 | 70.5 |
| Petersburg city, VA | 1,449 | 60.6 |
| Wilcox County, AL | 309 | 63.8 |
| Kusilvak Census Area, AK | $200 or less | 62.5 |
| Below the line | ||
| Maui County, HI | 1,442 | 4.45 |
| Kauai County, HI | 1,840 | 4.68 |
| Wise County, VA | 658 | 8.71 |
| Starr County, TX | 1,047 | 7.69 |
| Honolulu County, HI | 2,482 | 3.58 |
Two series, one county
Both measures over time for a county you pick. The two charts are stacked, so they share only the years along the bottom. You can pick from the thirty largest counties reporting both. This panel covers 2010–2024, and a measure published only once shows as a single dot.
Loading…
Every version of the link
Each row measures the same link, from −1 to +1, in a different way. If the rows mostly agree, the link does not depend on one choice of method.
| Before adjusting for anything | -0.564 | 2,009 counties reporting both |
| After adjusting for density, income and education | -0.220 | the part of the link that is not just how urban, rich and educated a place is |
| Also adjusting for population size | -0.211 | size taken out as well as density |
| Also comparing only within each state | +0.094 | each county is compared only with others in its own state, so this is no longer a comparison between states |
| Giving bigger counties more weight | -0.338 | the adjusted link for the average resident rather than the average county. With this weighting, the data counts for about 269 equally weighted counties |
| Middle value inside single states | -0.474 | the link worked out inside each of 34 states with at least 20 counties reporting |
| Using ranks, after adjusting | -0.369 | uses each county’s rank, not its value, so a few extreme counties cannot create the link |
How much to believe it
Could it be chance?
The p-value is the chance of seeing a link this strong if there were really none. A value of 0.05 or less means the link is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 3.1e-16 means 0.00000000000000031, and the bigger the number after “e-”, the smaller the value. Treating every county as a separate case gives p = 2.1e-23. But counties in the same state tend to resemble each other, so the better figure allows for that: p = 8.0e-6. The site tested 20,910 pairs, and testing so many turns up some flukes. The q-value allows for that too. For this pair it is 7.1e-23.
Do nearby places look alike?
Moran’s I measures how much nearby places look alike: 0 means no map pattern, and higher means neighbours are more similar. For the part of each county that the adjustment leaves unexplained, it is +0.32 (p = 0.001). That unexplained part still clusters on the map. So some regional factor shared by both measures is not accounted for.
Did they change together?
The figures above compare counties at one moment. This asks a different question: where median property tax bill rose most, did firearm fatalitiesmove too? Each county’s change is compared with the average change in its own state. That takes out ups and downs that hit a whole region at once. Each change is the gap between two estimates that both contain some error. That error pulls these links towards zero, so a weak one is weak partly for that reason. The q column shows whether a link could be a fluke, allowing for the many pairs tested: 0.05 or less means it is unlikely to be chance.
| Period | Counties | Change together | Within states | q |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2019 the main test: each Census survey figure averages five years, and these two do not overlap; before the pandemic | — | — | — | — |
| 2019–2023 a repeat check: its two five-year survey figures both include 2019, and it covers the COVID years | 1,846 | +0.00 | -0.04 | 0.438 |
Measured over the nearest years published: Firearm fatalities: 2019–2022 for the 2019–2023 row.
Not measurable over the main period, so only the second period is shown. How change is measured.
Related pairs
- Child mortality and Firearm fatalities — +0.57
- Share Black, not Hispanic and Firearm fatalities — +0.55
- Firearm fatalities and Years of potential life lost — +0.55
- Median household income and Median property tax bill — +0.53
- Firearm fatalities and Premature mortality — +0.50
- Threat of utility shut-off and Firearm fatalities — +0.50
- Firearm fatalities and Life expectancy — -0.49
- Firearm fatalities and Health score — -0.47
Association only. Nothing here shows that either measure changes the other. This describes counties, not the people in them. Two measures going together across places does not mean the same people have both. How the US county data works · Explore Median property tax bill and Firearm fatalities