placestats

Women in a union vs. Women ministers

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 179 countries, Women in a union and Women ministers rise and fall together at r = -0.34 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.29, q = 0.0033, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of women in a union, 51.9% to 62.8% of women aged 15-49, women ministers is worse by 5.99% of ministers at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 5.51% of ministers.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.341p = 3.1e-6 · 179 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.295p = 6.4e-5 · likely range [-0.42, -0.15]
p, allowing for regions5.3e-5standard error 0.029 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.003across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Women in a union · % of women aged 15-49link with income -0.44 · moderate
Women ministers · % of ministerslink with income +0.20 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Women in a union · % of women aged 15-49 →Women ministers · % of ministers →33.6%81.3%0%64.3%Afghanistan: 65.9% of women aged 15-49, 6.45% of ministersAngola: 57.2% of women aged 15-49, 29.2% of ministersAlbania: 65.7% of women aged 15-49, 41.7% of ministersUnited Arab Emirates: 67.4% of women aged 15-49, 20% of ministersArgentina: 49.7% of women aged 15-49, 25% of ministersArmenia: 61.5% of women aged 15-49, 33.3% of ministersAntigua and Barbuda: 33.8% of women aged 15-49, 12.5% of ministersAustralia: 54% of women aged 15-49, 48.3% of ministersAustria: 56.6% of women aged 15-49, 25% of ministersAzerbaijan: 59.7% of women aged 15-49, 0% of ministersBurundi: 58.2% of women aged 15-49, 33.3% of ministersBelgium: 52.4% of women aged 15-49, 42.9% of ministersBenin: 65.7% of women aged 15-49, 23.8% of ministersBurkina Faso: 74.3% of women aged 15-49, 9.52% of ministersBangladesh: 80.6% of women aged 15-49, 18.2% of ministersBulgaria: 56.6% of women aged 15-49, 5.26% of ministersBahrain: 56.4% of women aged 15-49, 21.7% of ministersBahamas, The: 38.7% of women aged 15-49, 22.2% of ministersBosnia and Herzegovina: 65.3% of women aged 15-49, 11.1% of ministersBelarus: 62.4% of women aged 15-49, 4.35% of ministersBelize: 58% of women aged 15-49, 5.88% of ministersBolivia: 50.2% of women aged 15-49, 23.5% of ministersBrazil: 56.9% of women aged 15-49, 32.3% of ministersBarbados: 57.2% of women aged 15-49, 31.3% of ministersBrunei Darussalam: 54.2% of women aged 15-49, 10% of ministersBhutan: 62% of women aged 15-49, 11.1% of ministersBotswana: 41.5% of women aged 15-49, 16.7% of ministersCentral African Republic: 65.4% of women aged 15-49, 19.4% of ministersCanada: 51.6% of women aged 15-49, 45.7% of ministersSwitzerland: 57.5% of women aged 15-49, 42.9% of ministersChile: 48.5% of women aged 15-49, 50% of ministersChina: 69.5% of women aged 15-49, 8.33% of ministersCote d'Ivoire: 62.7% of women aged 15-49, 19.4% of ministersCameroon: 58.1% of women aged 15-49, 20.6% of ministersCongo, Dem. Rep.: 58.2% of women aged 15-49, 25% of ministersCongo, Rep.: 55.3% of women aged 15-49, 22.2% of ministersColombia: 50.9% of women aged 15-49, 47.4% of ministersComoros: 63.1% of women aged 15-49, 13.3% of ministersCabo Verde: 45% of women aged 15-49, 31.3% of ministersCosta Rica: 41.7% of women aged 15-49, 33.3% of ministersCyprus: 52.3% of women aged 15-49, 33.3% of ministersCzechia: 53.7% of women aged 15-49, 6.67% of ministersGermany: 54.4% of women aged 15-49, 46.2% of ministersDjibouti: 46.5% of women aged 15-49, 21.7% of ministersDominica: 48.4% of women aged 15-49, 38.5% of ministersDenmark: 54.3% of women aged 15-49, 30.4% of ministersDominican Republic: 53.2% of women aged 15-49, 17.6% of ministersAlgeria: 55.5% of women aged 15-49, 13.3% of ministersEcuador: 45.3% of women aged 15-49, 42.1% of ministersEgypt, Arab Rep.: 65.6% of women aged 15-49, 13.3% of ministersSpain: 50.2% of women aged 15-49, 50% of ministersEstonia: 54.1% of women aged 15-49, 58.3% of ministersEthiopia: 66.3% of women aged 15-49, 45.5% of ministersFinland: 57.1% of women aged 15-49, 61.1% of ministersFiji: 59.2% of women aged 15-49, 10.5% of ministersFrance: 54.9% of women aged 15-49, 40% of ministersGabon: 48.5% of women aged 15-49, 27.6% of ministersUnited Kingdom: 49.7% of women aged 15-49, 50% of ministersGeorgia: 65.3% of women aged 15-49, 25% of ministersGhana: 53.4% of women aged 15-49, 17.4% of ministersGuinea: 70.9% of women aged 15-49, 22.2% of ministersGambia, The: 63% of women aged 15-49, 14.3% of ministersGuinea-Bissau: 59% of women aged 15-49, 20.8% of ministersEquatorial Guinea: 61.1% of women aged 15-49, 5.26% of ministersGreece: 52.4% of women aged 15-49, 20% of ministersGuatemala: 56.2% of women aged 15-49, 38.5% of ministersGuyana: 59% of women aged 15-49, 35.3% of ministersHonduras: 54.4% of women aged 15-49, 37.5% of ministersCroatia: 50.1% of women aged 15-49, 16.7% of ministersHaiti: 53.6% of women aged 15-49, 22.2% of ministersHungary: 52.3% of women aged 15-49, 0% of ministersIndonesia: 70.3% of women aged 15-49, 12.5% of ministersIndia: 72.3% of women aged 15-49, 5.56% of ministersIreland: 47.1% of women aged 15-49, 21.4% of ministersIran, Islamic Rep.: 69.6% of women aged 15-49, 10% of ministersIraq: 64.3% of women aged 15-49, 13% of ministersIceland: 48.5% of women aged 15-49, 60% of ministersIsrael: 50.4% of women aged 15-49, 16.7% of ministersItaly: 51.8% of women aged 15-49, 25% of ministersJamaica: 35.2% of women aged 15-49, 33.3% of ministersJordan: 56% of women aged 15-49, 15.4% of ministersJapan: 50% of women aged 15-49, 10% of ministersKazakhstan: 63.8% of women aged 15-49, 14.3% of ministersKenya: 53.2% of women aged 15-49, 30% of ministersKyrgyz Republic: 57.4% of women aged 15-49, 12.5% of ministersCambodia: 67.2% of women aged 15-49, 11.1% of ministersKiribati: 67.4% of women aged 15-49, 14.3% of ministersKorea, Rep.: 49.8% of women aged 15-49, 18.8% of ministersKuwait: 59.5% of women aged 15-49, 17.6% of ministersLao PDR: 61.6% of women aged 15-49, 17.6% of ministersLebanon: 52.4% of women aged 15-49, 4.55% of ministersLiberia: 51.4% of women aged 15-49, 35.3% of ministersLibya: 43.8% of women aged 15-49, 11.5% of ministersSt. Lucia: 53.3% of women aged 15-49, 18.2% of ministersSri Lanka: 66.3% of women aged 15-49, 9.09% of ministersLesotho: 46.9% of women aged 15-49, 11.8% of ministersLithuania: 51.8% of women aged 15-49, 28.6% of ministersLuxembourg: 51.1% of women aged 15-49, 33.3% of ministersLatvia: 49.6% of women aged 15-49, 35.7% of ministersMorocco: 58% of women aged 15-49, 26.3% of ministersMoldova: 68.7% of women aged 15-49, 35.7% of ministersMadagascar: 62.3% of women aged 15-49, 42.3% of ministersMaldives: 68.4% of women aged 15-49, 9.52% of ministersMexico: 53% of women aged 15-49, 45% of ministersNorth Macedonia: 66.1% of women aged 15-49, 15% of ministersMali: 79.2% of women aged 15-49, 18.5% of ministersMalta: 52% of women aged 15-49, 12.5% of ministersMyanmar: 58% of women aged 15-49, 3.85% of ministersMontenegro: 57.6% of women aged 15-49, 24% of ministersMongolia: 60.2% of women aged 15-49, 18.8% of ministersMozambique: 64.8% of women aged 15-49, 27.8% of ministersMauritania: 66.1% of women aged 15-49, 19.2% of ministersMauritius: 51.6% of women aged 15-49, 8.33% of ministersMalawi: 62.1% of women aged 15-49, 33.3% of ministersMalaysia: 57.1% of women aged 15-49, 11.1% of ministersNamibia: 33.7% of women aged 15-49, 36.8% of ministersNiger: 81.3% of women aged 15-49, 23.8% of ministersNigeria: 67.6% of women aged 15-49, 8.82% of ministersNicaragua: 56% of women aged 15-49, 64.3% of ministersNetherlands: 53.5% of women aged 15-49, 40% of ministersNorway: 57.4% of women aged 15-49, 47.4% of ministersNepal: 75.1% of women aged 15-49, 9.52% of ministersNaoero: 57.7% of women aged 15-49, 14.3% of ministersNew Zealand: 57.7% of women aged 15-49, 35% of ministersOman: 55.8% of women aged 15-49, 15% of ministersPakistan: 63.4% of women aged 15-49, 0% of ministersPanama: 53.2% of women aged 15-49, 35.3% of ministersPeru: 52.7% of women aged 15-49, 10.5% of ministersPhilippines: 55.6% of women aged 15-49, 17.4% of ministersPalau: 48.3% of women aged 15-49, 12.5% of ministersPapua New Guinea: 66.9% of women aged 15-49, 2.7% of ministersPoland: 58.6% of women aged 15-49, 35% of ministersPortugal: 50.6% of women aged 15-49, 41.2% of ministersParaguay: 54.8% of women aged 15-49, 23.5% of ministersQatar: 64.6% of women aged 15-49, 11.1% of ministersRomania: 56% of women aged 15-49, 12.5% of ministersRussian Federation: 57.6% of women aged 15-49, 9.52% of ministersRwanda: 49.9% of women aged 15-49, 26.3% of ministersSaudi Arabia: 55.3% of women aged 15-49, 0% of ministersSudan: 62.6% of women aged 15-49, 7.69% of ministersSenegal: 65.5% of women aged 15-49, 16% of ministersSingapore: 43.8% of women aged 15-49, 14.3% of ministersSolomon Islands: 64.5% of women aged 15-49, 9.52% of ministersSierra Leone: 61.5% of women aged 15-49, 33.3% of ministersEl Salvador: 50.7% of women aged 15-49, 31.3% of ministersSan Marino: 55.7% of women aged 15-49, 10% of ministersSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 62.4% of women aged 15-49, 8% of ministersSerbia: 54.3% of women aged 15-49, 37.5% of ministersSao Tome and Principe: 53.1% of women aged 15-49, 41.7% of ministersSuriname: 52.2% of women aged 15-49, 29.4% of ministersSlovak Republic: 49.2% of women aged 15-49, 13.3% of ministersSlovenia: 47.2% of women aged 15-49, 36.8% of ministersSweden: 53.6% of women aged 15-49, 47.8% of ministersEswatini: 36.4% of women aged 15-49, 26.3% of ministersSeychelles: 44.6% of women aged 15-49, 35.7% of ministersChad: 72.6% of women aged 15-49, 16.7% of ministersTogo: 63.7% of women aged 15-49, 32.3% of ministersThailand: 52.4% of women aged 15-49, 15.8% of ministersTajikistan: 68% of women aged 15-49, 14.3% of ministersTurkmenistan: 65% of women aged 15-49, 0% of ministersTimor-Leste: 56.4% of women aged 15-49, 20% of ministersTonga: 50.7% of women aged 15-49, 18.2% of ministersTrinidad and Tobago: 42.7% of women aged 15-49, 31.8% of ministersTunisia: 52.5% of women aged 15-49, 25% of ministersTurkiye: 59.6% of women aged 15-49, 5.88% of ministersTuvalu: 64.2% of women aged 15-49, 0% of ministersTanzania: 59.2% of women aged 15-49, 28.6% of ministersUganda: 57.8% of women aged 15-49, 30% of ministersUkraine: 61.9% of women aged 15-49, 26.3% of ministersUruguay: 53.6% of women aged 15-49, 21.4% of ministersUnited States: 52.1% of women aged 15-49, 40% of ministersUzbekistan: 74.7% of women aged 15-49, 4.76% of ministersSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 51.1% of women aged 15-49, 18.2% of ministersViet Nam: 72.8% of women aged 15-49, 11.1% of ministersVanuatu: 68.6% of women aged 15-49, 0% of ministersSamoa: 62% of women aged 15-49, 23.1% of ministersSouth Africa: 33.6% of women aged 15-49, 43.8% of ministersZambia: 55.7% of women aged 15-49, 16% of ministersZimbabwe: 62.2% of women aged 15-49, 28% of ministersATGBGDBWAFINISLLBYNAMNERNICNPLUZBZAF

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3413.1e-6179
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.3791.7e-7179
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2956.4e-5179
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3384.0e-6179

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 179 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.046 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.315 (without ATG) to -0.278 (without ZAF). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: ATG (-0.020).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific27-0.14
Europe & Central Asia49-0.12
Latin America & Caribbean29+0.07
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan20-0.20
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.40

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third60-0.33
Middle third59-0.49
Richest third60-0.16

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians106-0.16
Muslims47+0.02

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24-0.36
Never a European colony21-0.32
Spain19-0.35
United Kingdom61-0.38

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.298 after dropping 6 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 20years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.043, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose women in a union moved did not tend to see their women ministers move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.295for comparison
Within countries-0.191each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.043q = 0.530 · 165 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.067q = 0.158
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

1,590 country-years (one country in one year), 165 countries, 2005–2024, about 10 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 3% for Women in a union, 31% for Women ministers. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-80+10years Women ministers trails Women in a union →lag -8: r = -0.125 (n = 281)lag -7: r = -0.059 (n = 516)lag -6: r = -0.050 (n = 711)lag -5: r = -0.057 (n = 856)lag -4: r = -0.040 (n = 1,039)lag -3: r = -0.032 (n = 1,207)lag -2: r = -0.042 (n = 1,337)lag -1: r = -0.051 (n = 1,464)lag +0: r = -0.043 (n = 1,590)lag +1: r = -0.051 (n = 1,740)lag +2: r = -0.045 (n = 1,882)lag +3: r = -0.040 (n = 2,017)lag +4: r = -0.035 (n = 2,110)lag +5: r = -0.035 (n = 2,176)lag +6: r = -0.032 (n = 2,221)lag +7: r = -0.024 (n = 2,253)lag +8: r = -0.018 (n = 2,280)lag +9: r = -0.013 (n = 2,302)lag +10: r = -0.007 (n = 2,316)

Same year (lag 0): -0.043. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -8), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of women aged 15-49
% of ministers		Years
Niger NER81.3%23.8%2021, 2024
Bangladesh BGD80.6%18.2%2022, 2024
Mali MLI79.2%18.5%2018, 2024
Nepal NPL75.1%9.52%2022, 2024
Uzbekistan UZB74.7%4.76%2022, 2024
Burkina Faso BFA74.3%9.52%2021, 2024
Viet Nam VNM72.8%11.1%2021, 2024
Chad TCD72.6%16.7%2019, 2024
India IND72.3%5.56%2020, 2024
Guinea GIN70.9%22.2%2018, 2024
Indonesia IDN70.3%12.5%2022, 2024
Iran, Islamic Rep. IRN69.6%10%2022, 2024
China CHN69.5%8.33%2021, 2024
Moldova MDA68.7%35.7%2020, 2024
Vanuatu VUT68.6%0%2020, 2024

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024 and Estimates and Projections of Women of Reproductive Age Who Are Married or in a Union
World Bank Gender Statistics, from Inter-Parliamentary Union and UN Women, Women in Politics

Sources

Women in a union

Share of women aged 15 to 49 who are married or in a union

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated biennial

A snapshot of how many women are in a union at one time, not a count of new unions each year. It counts couples living together as a union, which the OECD marriage rate does not. So the two can disagree without either being wrong, and their pair is worth reading for exactly that. The UN estimates it with a statistical model from survey and census data, for over two hundred countries. No "better" direction is set.

Women ministers

Proportion of women in ministerial positions

Inter-Parliamentary Union and UN Women · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Counted on 1 January each year, so a cabinet change in February shows up a year late. Ministers are appointed, not elected, so this is a different measure from women in parliament. A head of government can change it alone, and some do.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Women in a union and Women ministers

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Women in a union changes Women ministers, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Women in a union or Women ministers