Do Researchers and Women's age at first marriage (census-based) go together across countries?

Across 124 countries the link before adjusting for anything is r = +0.76, on a scale from -1 (opposite) to +1 (in step). A version that uses only each country's rank gives +0.82.

Does the link hold within countries over time, not just across countries?

Comparing each country only with itself across 1996-2019, and setting aside what happened worldwide in each year, the link is -0.043 (29 countries, 341 country-years). Using year-to-year changes, it is -0.207.

Does Researchers cause Women's age at first marriage (census-based)?

This analysis cannot answer that. It shows only that the two go together. A link between two country measures, adjusted or not, does not show that either one changes the other. Country figures also say nothing about individual people.

Researchers vs. Women's age at first marriage (census-based)

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 124 countries, Researchers and Women's age at first marriage (census-based) rise and fall together at r = +0.76 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.50 (q = 0.0076, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a moderate positive link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of women's age at first marriage (census-based), 22.5 to 28.2 years, researchers is better by 2,742 per million people at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 2,006 per million people.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.764p = 6.1e-25 · 124 countries

After adjusting for national income+0.503p = 3.1e-9 · likely range [+0.36, +0.62]

p, allowing for regions0.000standard error 0.059 · 7 regions

Check for luck (q)0.008across 14,952 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Researchers · per million peoplelink with income +0.85 · proxy

Women's age at first marriage (census-based) · yearslink with income +0.75 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

Method	r	p	Countries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted	+0.764	6.1e-25	124
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted	+0.816	8.1e-31	124
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income	+0.503	3.1e-9	124
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income	+0.422	1.1e-6	124

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 124 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.261 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.489 (without PAN) to +0.535 (without SGP). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SGP (+0.033).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

	n	r
East Asia & Pacific	17	+0.65
Europe & Central Asia	44	+0.39
Latin America & Caribbean	17	+0.11
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan	14	+0.40
Sub-Saharan Africa	27	+0.11

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

	n	r
Poorest third	42	+0.37
Middle third	41	+0.43
Richest third	41	+0.51

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

	n	r
Christians	78	+0.47
Muslims	28	+0.28

By last european coloniser

	n	r
Never a European colony	14	+0.80
Spain	16	+0.48
United Kingdom	33	+0.06

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.525 after dropping 4 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 24years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.043, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose researchers moved did not tend to see their women's age at first marriage (census-based) move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.503for comparison

Within countries+0.444each country vs itself

…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.043q = 0.777 · 29 countries

Year-on-year changes-0.207q = 0.411

Read with care.

Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

341 country-years (one country in one year), 29 countries, 1996–2019, about 12 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 37% for Researchers, 13% for Women's age at first marriage (census-based). The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

Same year (lag 0): -0.043. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data

	per million people	years	Years
Korea, Rep. KOR	9,472	31.5	2023, 2015
Sweden SWE	8,911	31	2023, 2018
Denmark DNK	8,838	31.9	2023, 2018
Singapore SGP	8,782	27.9	2022, 2010
Finland FIN	8,315	30.7	2023, 2018
Norway NOR	7,451	32.1	2023, 2018
Austria AUT	6,634	27.1	2023, 2011
Netherlands NLD	6,563	32.4	2023, 2018
Switzerland CHE	6,108	30.9	2023, 2017
Belgium BEL	5,990	26.3	2023, 2011
Portugal PRT	5,983	30.1	2023, 2011
Iceland ISL	5,953	32.4	2023, 2018
Germany DEU	5,926	31.7	2023, 2018
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG	5,874	29.9	2024, 2016
Ireland IRL	5,753	32.4	2023, 2016

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank Gender Statistics, from UN Population Division, World Marriage Data

Sources

Researchers

Researchers in R&D (per million people)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Researchers counted as full-time equivalents (two half-time researchers count as one), from national research surveys that many countries run only now and then. So coverage is thin outside the OECD.

Women's age at first marriage (census-based)

Age at first marriage, female

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

The average age at which women first marry. It is worked out from census and survey counts of how many women in each age group have never married, by the UN Population Division (World Marriage Data), so it covers far more countries than registered marriages do. Most countries have a figure only every few years, and the series ends in 2019. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 14,952 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Researchers and Women's age at first marriage (census-based)

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Researchers changes Women's age at first marriage (census-based), or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.