placestats

Refugees originating vs. Unemployment

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 175 countries, Refugees originating and Unemployment rise and fall together at r = +0.14 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.12, q = 0.035, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of refugees originating, 2.18 to 155 per 100,000 people, unemployment is worse by 0.0482% of labor force at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.0433% of labor force.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.141p = 0.063 · 175 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.123p = 0.106 · likely range [-0.03, +0.27]
p, allowing for regions0.002standard error 0.025 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.035across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Refugees originating · per 100,000 peoplelink with income -0.49 · moderate
Unemployment · % of labor forcelink with income -0.00 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Refugees originating · per 100,000 people →Unemployment · % of labor force →024,1240.13%34.2%Afghanistan: 13,521 per 100,000 people, 13.4% of labor forceAngola: 33.1 per 100,000 people, 14.1% of labor forceAlbania: 784 per 100,000 people, 10.9% of labor forceUnited Arab Emirates: 2.37 per 100,000 people, 2.17% of labor forceArgentina: 1.02 per 100,000 people, 7.14% of labor forceArmenia: 536 per 100,000 people, 12.9% of labor forceAustralia: 0.116 per 100,000 people, 4.09% of labor forceAustria: 0.362 per 100,000 people, 5.58% of labor forceAzerbaijan: 1,482 per 100,000 people, 5.46% of labor forceBurundi: 2,295 per 100,000 people, 0.922% of labor forceBelgium: 0.792 per 100,000 people, 5.91% of labor forceBenin: 7.36 per 100,000 people, 1.59% of labor forceBurkina Faso: 637 per 100,000 people, 3.48% of labor forceBangladesh: 16.4 per 100,000 people, 3.78% of labor forceBulgaria: 7.37 per 100,000 people, 3.54% of labor forceBahrain: 18 per 100,000 people, 1.1% of labor forceBahamas, The: 361 per 100,000 people, 9.21% of labor forceBosnia and Herzegovina: 848 per 100,000 people, 11% of labor forceBelarus: 195 per 100,000 people, 3.38% of labor forceBelize: 24.9 per 100,000 people, 8.86% of labor forceBolivia: 4.93 per 100,000 people, 2.97% of labor forceBrazil: 2.39 per 100,000 people, 5.97% of labor forceBarbados: 147 per 100,000 people, 6.52% of labor forceBrunei Darussalam: 0 per 100,000 people, 5.28% of labor forceBhutan: 939 per 100,000 people, 3.23% of labor forceBotswana: 9.88 per 100,000 people, 24.5% of labor forceCentral African Republic: 13,009 per 100,000 people, 6.25% of labor forceCanada: 0.778 per 100,000 people, 6.91% of labor forceSwitzerland: 0.056 per 100,000 people, 4.87% of labor forceChile: 24.3 per 100,000 people, 8.97% of labor forceChina: 10.8 per 100,000 people, 4.62% of labor forceCote d'Ivoire: 92.2 per 100,000 people, 2.32% of labor forceCameroon: 377 per 100,000 people, 3.6% of labor forceCongo, Dem. Rep.: 970 per 100,000 people, 4.43% of labor forceCongo, Rep.: 223 per 100,000 people, 19.9% of labor forceColombia: 147 per 100,000 people, 8.29% of labor forceComoros: 268 per 100,000 people, 3.82% of labor forceCabo Verde: 2.67 per 100,000 people, 11.9% of labor forceCosta Rica: 6.16 per 100,000 people, 6.84% of labor forceCyprus: 0.736 per 100,000 people, 4.92% of labor forceCzechia: 9.85 per 100,000 people, 2.83% of labor forceGermany: 0.412 per 100,000 people, 3.71% of labor forceDjibouti: 176 per 100,000 people, 26% of labor forceDenmark: 0.268 per 100,000 people, 5.53% of labor forceDominican Republic: 9.45 per 100,000 people, 5.09% of labor forceAlgeria: 18.8 per 100,000 people, 11.6% of labor forceEcuador: 27.7 per 100,000 people, 3.31% of labor forceEgypt, Arab Rep.: 20.4 per 100,000 people, 6.78% of labor forceSpain: 0.363 per 100,000 people, 10.4% of labor forceEstonia: 9.26 per 100,000 people, 8.31% of labor forceEthiopia: 125 per 100,000 people, 3.32% of labor forceFinland: 0.089 per 100,000 people, 9.46% of labor forceFiji: 26.7 per 100,000 people, 5.35% of labor forceFrance: 0.209 per 100,000 people, 7.54% of labor forceGabon: 37.3 per 100,000 people, 20.2% of labor forceUnited Kingdom: 0.603 per 100,000 people, 4.75% of labor forceGeorgia: 435 per 100,000 people, 12.1% of labor forceGhana: 43.8 per 100,000 people, 2.98% of labor forceGuinea: 285 per 100,000 people, 5.16% of labor forceGambia, The: 295 per 100,000 people, 6.52% of labor forceGuinea-Bissau: 86.3 per 100,000 people, 2.67% of labor forceEquatorial Guinea: 22.5 per 100,000 people, 8.34% of labor forceGreece: 0.965 per 100,000 people, 8.54% of labor forceGuatemala: 197 per 100,000 people, 2.6% of labor forceGuyana: 37.7 per 100,000 people, 12% of labor forceHong Kong SAR, China: 3.24 per 100,000 people, 2.8% of labor forceHonduras: 933 per 100,000 people, 4.92% of labor forceCroatia: 462 per 100,000 people, 5% of labor forceHaiti: 1,259 per 100,000 people, 14.9% of labor forceHungary: 20.5 per 100,000 people, 4.52% of labor forceIndonesia: 3.24 per 100,000 people, 3.24% of labor forceIndia: 2.71 per 100,000 people, 4.22% of labor forceIreland: 1.29 per 100,000 people, 4.63% of labor forceIran, Islamic Rep.: 173 per 100,000 people, 8.3% of labor forceIraq: 664 per 100,000 people, 15.5% of labor forceIceland: 0 per 100,000 people, 3.63% of labor forceIsrael: 13.9 per 100,000 people, 3.49% of labor forceItaly: 0.443 per 100,000 people, 6.39% of labor forceJamaica: 89.9 per 100,000 people, 3.29% of labor forceJordan: 43.2 per 100,000 people, 16.5% of labor forceJapan: 0.0444 per 100,000 people, 2.45% of labor forceKazakhstan: 20 per 100,000 people, 4.77% of labor forceKenya: 20.7 per 100,000 people, 5.45% of labor forceKyrgyz Republic: 47.3 per 100,000 people, 3.53% of labor forceCambodia: 65 per 100,000 people, 0.263% of labor forceKorea, Rep.: 0.275 per 100,000 people, 2.68% of labor forceKuwait: 61.2 per 100,000 people, 2.18% of labor forceLao PDR: 84.4 per 100,000 people, 1.19% of labor forceLebanon: 164 per 100,000 people, 11% of labor forceLiberia: 90.6 per 100,000 people, 2.88% of labor forceLibya: 234 per 100,000 people, 18.8% of labor forceSt. Lucia: 89 per 100,000 people, 9.45% of labor forceSri Lanka: 636 per 100,000 people, 4% of labor forceLesotho: 1.07 per 100,000 people, 16.3% of labor forceLithuania: 3.88 per 100,000 people, 6.73% of labor forceLuxembourg: 0.743 per 100,000 people, 6.34% of labor forceLatvia: 9.56 per 100,000 people, 6.57% of labor forceMacao SAR, China: 2.08 per 100,000 people, 2.35% of labor forceMorocco: 27.9 per 100,000 people, 9% of labor forceMoldova: 205 per 100,000 people, 1.5% of labor forceMadagascar: 1.89 per 100,000 people, 3.04% of labor forceMaldives: 14.4 per 100,000 people, 4.51% of labor forceMexico: 30 per 100,000 people, 2.67% of labor forceNorth Macedonia: 110 per 100,000 people, 12.3% of labor forceMali: 1,446 per 100,000 people, 2.83% of labor forceMalta: 1.85 per 100,000 people, 2.9% of labor forceMyanmar: 2,427 per 100,000 people, 3.05% of labor forceMontenegro: 120 per 100,000 people, 13.6% of labor forceMongolia: 72 per 100,000 people, 5.23% of labor forceMozambique: 0.329 per 100,000 people, 6.63% of labor forceMauritania: 737 per 100,000 people, 10.3% of labor forceMauritius: 20.7 per 100,000 people, 5.63% of labor forceMalawi: 2.63 per 100,000 people, 5.07% of labor forceMalaysia: 3.4 per 100,000 people, 3.76% of labor forceNamibia: 21.3 per 100,000 people, 19.3% of labor forceNiger: 163 per 100,000 people, 0.394% of labor forceNigeria: 201 per 100,000 people, 3.06% of labor forceNicaragua: 434 per 100,000 people, 5.04% of labor forceNetherlands: 0.746 per 100,000 people, 3.87% of labor forceNorway: 0.395 per 100,000 people, 4.64% of labor forceNepal: 26.4 per 100,000 people, 10.5% of labor forceNew Zealand: 0.997 per 100,000 people, 5.08% of labor forceOman: 2.23 per 100,000 people, 3.25% of labor forcePakistan: 34.3 per 100,000 people, 5.42% of labor forcePanama: 7.37 per 100,000 people, 8.36% of labor forcePeru: 18.9 per 100,000 people, 5.12% of labor forcePhilippines: 0.678 per 100,000 people, 2.23% of labor forcePapua New Guinea: 4.77 per 100,000 people, 2.57% of labor forcePoland: 3.96 per 100,000 people, 2.98% of labor forcePuerto Rico (US): 0 per 100,000 people, 5.99% of labor forcePortugal: 1.06 per 100,000 people, 6.16% of labor forceParaguay: 2.45 per 100,000 people, 4.8% of labor forceWest Bank and Gaza: 795 per 100,000 people, 24.4% of labor forceQatar: 2.13 per 100,000 people, 0.13% of labor forceRomania: 15.4 per 100,000 people, 5.99% of labor forceRussian Federation: 66.9 per 100,000 people, 2.13% of labor forceRwanda: 1,747 per 100,000 people, 11.4% of labor forceSaudi Arabia: 6.87 per 100,000 people, 3.04% of labor forceSudan: 4,151 per 100,000 people, 7.53% of labor forceSenegal: 70 per 100,000 people, 2.73% of labor forceSingapore: 0.772 per 100,000 people, 2.82% of labor forceSolomon Islands: 5.37 per 100,000 people, 1.43% of labor forceSierra Leone: 93.1 per 100,000 people, 3.15% of labor forceEl Salvador: 1,132 per 100,000 people, 3.3% of labor forceSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 4,703 per 100,000 people, 18.9% of labor forceSao Tome and Principe: 2.12 per 100,000 people, 9.13% of labor forceSuriname: 7.88 per 100,000 people, 7.83% of labor forceSlovak Republic: 12.1 per 100,000 people, 5.36% of labor forceSlovenia: 0.802 per 100,000 people, 3.17% of labor forceSweden: 0.924 per 100,000 people, 8.69% of labor forceEswatini: 12.1 per 100,000 people, 34.2% of labor forceSyrian Arab Republic: 24,124 per 100,000 people, 13.6% of labor forceChad: 72 per 100,000 people, 1.06% of labor forceTogo: 151 per 100,000 people, 2% of labor forceThailand: 0.419 per 100,000 people, 0.781% of labor forceTajikistan: 38.2 per 100,000 people, 6.93% of labor forceTurkmenistan: 34.4 per 100,000 people, 4.27% of labor forceTimor-Leste: 0.357 per 100,000 people, 1.59% of labor forceTonga: 40.3 per 100,000 people, 2.01% of labor forceTrinidad and Tobago: 31.4 per 100,000 people, 3.33% of labor forceTunisia: 29.3 per 100,000 people, 15.1% of labor forceTurkiye: 160 per 100,000 people, 8.52% of labor forceTanzania: 1.84 per 100,000 people, 1.57% of labor forceUganda: 20.7 per 100,000 people, 2.75% of labor forceUkraine: 13,524 per 100,000 people, 9.83% of labor forceUruguay: 3.87 per 100,000 people, 7.52% of labor forceUnited States: 1.16 per 100,000 people, 4.2% of labor forceUzbekistan: 14.2 per 100,000 people, 4.62% of labor forceSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 185 per 100,000 people, 18% of labor forceViet Nam: 19.8 per 100,000 people, 1.52% of labor forceVanuatu: 1.53 per 100,000 people, 5.07% of labor forceSamoa: 3.67 per 100,000 people, 5% of labor forceSouth Africa: 1.83 per 100,000 people, 32.4% of labor forceZambia: 1.58 per 100,000 people, 5.92% of labor forceZimbabwe: 48 per 100,000 people, 9.29% of labor forceAFGCAFDJIKHMNERQATSWZSYRUKRZAF

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.1410.063175
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.1550.041175
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1230.106175
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1820.016175

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 175 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.018 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.090 (without SYR) to +0.141 (without SWZ). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SYR (-0.033).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific25+0.05
Europe & Central Asia47+0.17
Latin America & Caribbean28+0.28
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22-0.32
Sub-Saharan Africa45+0.24

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third59+0.28
Middle third58+0.00
Richest third58+0.12

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians104+0.02
Muslims49+0.22

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.28
Never a European colony21+0.45
Spain19-0.04
United Kingdom55+0.08

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.025 after dropping 36 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 34years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.030, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose refugees originating moved did not tend to see their unemployment move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.123for comparison
Within countries+0.035each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.030q = 0.680 · 181 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.046q = 0.327

5,670 country-years (one country in one year), 181 countries, 1991–2024, about 31 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 47% for Refugees originating, 15% for Unemployment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Unemployment trails Refugees originating →lag -10: r = -0.020 (n = 4,232)lag -9: r = -0.018 (n = 4,402)lag -8: r = -0.020 (n = 4,564)lag -7: r = -0.018 (n = 4,724)lag -6: r = -0.013 (n = 4,879)lag -5: r = -0.008 (n = 5,039)lag -4: r = 0.001 (n = 5,196)lag -3: r = 0.009 (n = 5,354)lag -2: r = 0.016 (n = 5,472)lag -1: r = 0.023 (n = 5,579)lag +0: r = 0.030 (n = 5,670)lag +1: r = 0.030 (n = 5,754)lag +2: r = 0.023 (n = 5,569)lag +3: r = 0.018 (n = 5,385)lag +4: r = 0.015 (n = 5,206)lag +5: r = 0.013 (n = 5,023)lag +6: r = 0.012 (n = 4,846)lag +7: r = 0.011 (n = 4,668)lag +8: r = 0.007 (n = 4,491)lag +9: r = 0.008 (n = 4,309)lag +10: r = 0.011 (n = 4,129)

Same year (lag 0): +0.030. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


per 100,000 people
% of labor force		Years
Syrian Arab Republic SYR24,12413.6%2024, 2025
Ukraine UKR13,5249.83%2024, 2021
Afghanistan AFG13,52113.4%2024, 2025
Central African Republic CAF13,0096.25%2024, 2025
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM4,70318.9%2024, 2025
Sudan SDN4,1517.53%2024, 2022
Myanmar MMR2,4273.05%2024, 2025
Burundi BDI2,2950.922%2024, 2025
Rwanda RWA1,74711.4%2024, 2025
Azerbaijan AZE1,4825.46%2024, 2025
Mali MLI1,4462.83%2024, 2025
Haiti HTI1,25914.9%2024, 2025
El Salvador SLV1,1323.3%2024, 2025
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD9704.43%2024, 2025
Bhutan BTN9393.23%2024, 2025

UNHCR Refugee Data Finder; rate per population from Our World in Data
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Refugees originating

Refugees originating from the country, per 100,000 people

United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

People recognised as refugees abroad, compared with the population of the country they left. It is zero for most of the world and in the thousands for a dozen countries at war. So it is put on a log scale (which squeezes very large values together) wherever it is used for adjusting, and its links lean on those few countries. The "leave one out" check shows by how much. It has a "better" direction and sits under governance. But it is an outcome of governance, not a measure of it, so it is kept out of the governance score.

Unemployment

Unemployment, total (% of total labor force) (modeled ILO estimate)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2021–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Refugees originating and Unemployment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Refugees originating changes Unemployment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Refugees originating or Unemployment