placestats

Political civil liberties vs. Tax revenue

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 136 countries, Political civil liberties and Tax revenue rise and fall together at r = +0.50 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = +0.44, which could easily be chance (q = 0.068, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike).

Comparing countries across the middle half of political civil liberties, 0.509 to 0.893 points, tax revenue is 4.57% of GDP higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.05% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.501p = 5.0e-10 · 136 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.435p = 1.3e-7 · likely range [+0.29, +0.56]
p, allowing for regions0.009standard error 0.114 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.068across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Political civil liberties · index (0-1)link with income +0.40 · moderate
Tax revenue · % of GDPlink with income +0.33 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Political civil liberties · index (0-1) →Tax revenue · % of GDP →0.0170.9750.648%35.4%Afghanistan: 0.021 index (0-1), 9.9% of GDPAngola: 0.578 index (0-1), 7.59% of GDPAlbania: 0.761 index (0-1), 18% of GDPUnited Arab Emirates: 0.122 index (0-1), 0.648% of GDPArgentina: 0.774 index (0-1), 10.4% of GDPArmenia: 0.818 index (0-1), 22.4% of GDPAustralia: 0.906 index (0-1), 23.6% of GDPAustria: 0.926 index (0-1), 25.8% of GDPAzerbaijan: 0.121 index (0-1), 17.3% of GDPBurundi: 0.157 index (0-1), 12.7% of GDPBelgium: 0.963 index (0-1), 23% of GDPBurkina Faso: 0.346 index (0-1), 18.7% of GDPBangladesh: 0.636 index (0-1), 7.64% of GDPBulgaria: 0.825 index (0-1), 20.7% of GDPBahrain: 0.15 index (0-1), 2.82% of GDPBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.735 index (0-1), 20.2% of GDPBelarus: 0.036 index (0-1), 13% of GDPBrazil: 0.932 index (0-1), 15.4% of GDPBarbados: 0.922 index (0-1), 23.4% of GDPBhutan: 0.658 index (0-1), 12.3% of GDPBotswana: 0.843 index (0-1), 22.4% of GDPCentral African Republic: 0.525 index (0-1), 8.21% of GDPCanada: 0.922 index (0-1), 13.7% of GDPSwitzerland: 0.969 index (0-1), 9.45% of GDPChile: 0.943 index (0-1), 18.3% of GDPChina: 0.036 index (0-1), 7.02% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 0.701 index (0-1), 13% of GDPCameroon: 0.417 index (0-1), 11.3% of GDPCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.555 index (0-1), 10.7% of GDPCongo, Rep.: 0.296 index (0-1), 6.51% of GDPColombia: 0.842 index (0-1), 15.2% of GDPCabo Verde: 0.893 index (0-1), 18.4% of GDPCosta Rica: 0.931 index (0-1), 13.5% of GDPCyprus: 0.879 index (0-1), 23.9% of GDPCzechia: 0.934 index (0-1), 18.6% of GDPGermany: 0.892 index (0-1), 10.9% of GDPDenmark: 0.975 index (0-1), 33.4% of GDPDominican Republic: 0.922 index (0-1), 14.7% of GDPEcuador: 0.694 index (0-1), 13.1% of GDPEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.145 index (0-1), 12.5% of GDPSpain: 0.925 index (0-1), 14.9% of GDPEstonia: 0.966 index (0-1), 22.7% of GDPEthiopia: 0.336 index (0-1), 3.4% of GDPFinland: 0.936 index (0-1), 25.3% of GDPFiji: 0.759 index (0-1), 23.9% of GDPFrance: 0.953 index (0-1), 22.8% of GDPGabon: 0.747 index (0-1), 9.49% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 0.858 index (0-1), 26.9% of GDPGeorgia: 0.605 index (0-1), 24.3% of GDPGhana: 0.922 index (0-1), 12.4% of GDPGuinea-Bissau: 0.549 index (0-1), 8.3% of GDPEquatorial Guinea: 0.117 index (0-1), 6.6% of GDPGreece: 0.845 index (0-1), 27.4% of GDPGuatemala: 0.856 index (0-1), 11.6% of GDPHonduras: 0.876 index (0-1), 15.1% of GDPCroatia: 0.793 index (0-1), 21.2% of GDPHungary: 0.607 index (0-1), 22.7% of GDPIndia: 0.465 index (0-1), 6.93% of GDPIreland: 0.967 index (0-1), 17.9% of GDPIraq: 0.543 index (0-1), 1.34% of GDPIceland: 0.93 index (0-1), 23.2% of GDPIsrael: 0.769 index (0-1), 23.2% of GDPItaly: 0.873 index (0-1), 25.6% of GDPJamaica: 0.936 index (0-1), 23.7% of GDPJordan: 0.549 index (0-1), 15.5% of GDPKazakhstan: 0.362 index (0-1), 11.9% of GDPKenya: 0.86 index (0-1), 14.1% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 0.427 index (0-1), 19.6% of GDPCambodia: 0.208 index (0-1), 12.2% of GDPKorea, Rep.: 0.911 index (0-1), 13.3% of GDPLao PDR: 0.053 index (0-1), 12.1% of GDPLebanon: 0.729 index (0-1), 11.1% of GDPSri Lanka: 0.895 index (0-1), 9.88% of GDPLesotho: 0.857 index (0-1), 35.4% of GDPLithuania: 0.893 index (0-1), 21.9% of GDPLuxembourg: 0.956 index (0-1), 28.6% of GDPLatvia: 0.943 index (0-1), 17.6% of GDPMorocco: 0.549 index (0-1), 20.7% of GDPMoldova: 0.761 index (0-1), 18.6% of GDPMadagascar: 0.743 index (0-1), 10.9% of GDPMaldives: 0.724 index (0-1), 19.5% of GDPMexico: 0.642 index (0-1), 14.8% of GDPNorth Macedonia: 0.753 index (0-1), 18.8% of GDPMali: 0.439 index (0-1), 12% of GDPMalta: 0.891 index (0-1), 24.1% of GDPMyanmar: 0.058 index (0-1), 6.02% of GDPMongolia: 0.758 index (0-1), 16.9% of GDPMozambique: 0.504 index (0-1), 21.8% of GDPMauritius: 0.922 index (0-1), 20.5% of GDPMalawi: 0.755 index (0-1), 15.6% of GDPMalaysia: 0.691 index (0-1), 12.4% of GDPNamibia: 0.896 index (0-1), 33.9% of GDPNicaragua: 0.017 index (0-1), 20.1% of GDPNetherlands: 0.892 index (0-1), 25.3% of GDPNorway: 0.955 index (0-1), 24.5% of GDPNepal: 0.863 index (0-1), 13.9% of GDPNew Zealand: 0.929 index (0-1), 29.5% of GDPPanama: 0.885 index (0-1), 7.18% of GDPPeru: 0.759 index (0-1), 15.9% of GDPPhilippines: 0.641 index (0-1), 14.4% of GDPPapua New Guinea: 0.889 index (0-1), 15.5% of GDPPoland: 0.93 index (0-1), 18% of GDPPortugal: 0.914 index (0-1), 22.3% of GDPParaguay: 0.799 index (0-1), 11.3% of GDPRomania: 0.838 index (0-1), 16.2% of GDPRussian Federation: 0.1 index (0-1), 10.9% of GDPRwanda: 0.174 index (0-1), 13.1% of GDPSaudi Arabia: 0.083 index (0-1), 8.09% of GDPSudan: 0.271 index (0-1), 7.39% of GDPSenegal: 0.837 index (0-1), 19.5% of GDPSingapore: 0.528 index (0-1), 13.6% of GDPSolomon Islands: 0.892 index (0-1), 23.3% of GDPEl Salvador: 0.429 index (0-1), 21.8% of GDPSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.532 index (0-1), 2.24% of GDPSerbia: 0.549 index (0-1), 23.9% of GDPSlovak Republic: 0.807 index (0-1), 19.1% of GDPSlovenia: 0.797 index (0-1), 21% of GDPSweden: 0.96 index (0-1), 27.2% of GDPEswatini: 0.062 index (0-1), 24.3% of GDPTogo: 0.483 index (0-1), 13.9% of GDPThailand: 0.548 index (0-1), 15.2% of GDPTajikistan: 0.07 index (0-1), 10.7% of GDPTimor-Leste: 0.866 index (0-1), 21.6% of GDPTrinidad and Tobago: 0.92 index (0-1), 16.8% of GDPTunisia: 0.561 index (0-1), 20.1% of GDPTurkiye: 0.263 index (0-1), 17.6% of GDPTanzania: 0.614 index (0-1), 12.7% of GDPUganda: 0.368 index (0-1), 12.6% of GDPUkraine: 0.511 index (0-1), 21% of GDPUruguay: 0.947 index (0-1), 17.9% of GDPUnited States: 0.865 index (0-1), 10.8% of GDPUzbekistan: 0.249 index (0-1), 11% of GDPVanuatu: 0.905 index (0-1), 16.5% of GDPSouth Africa: 0.884 index (0-1), 25.9% of GDPZambia: 0.797 index (0-1), 18.8% of GDPZimbabwe: 0.349 index (0-1), 7.21% of GDPAREBHRCHEDNKIRQLSOMMRNAMNICPANSWZ

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5015.0e-10136
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5121.9e-10136
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.4351.3e-7136
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4184.4e-7136

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 136 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.066 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.403 (without ARE) to +0.467 (without SWZ). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: ARE (-0.032).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific17+0.75
Europe & Central Asia46+0.41
Latin America & Caribbean19-0.05
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan12+0.67
Sub-Saharan Africa34+0.40

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third46+0.35
Middle third45+0.34
Richest third45+0.61

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians90+0.28
Muslims28+0.37

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France14+0.16
Never a European colony16+0.48
Spain18+0.06
United Kingdom40+0.57

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.435 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.022, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose political civil liberties moved did not tend to see their tax revenue move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.435for comparison
Within countries-0.023each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.022q = 0.559 · 141 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.018q = 0.400

3,592 country-years (one country in one year), 141 countries, 1990–2024, about 26 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 13% for Political civil liberties, 70% for Tax revenue. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Tax revenue trails Political civil liberties →lag -10: r = -0.059 (n = 2,518)lag -9: r = -0.052 (n = 2,645)lag -8: r = -0.046 (n = 2,771)lag -7: r = -0.039 (n = 2,911)lag -6: r = -0.043 (n = 3,044)lag -5: r = -0.047 (n = 3,167)lag -4: r = -0.042 (n = 3,295)lag -3: r = -0.032 (n = 3,405)lag -2: r = -0.024 (n = 3,508)lag -1: r = -0.025 (n = 3,593)lag +0: r = -0.022 (n = 3,592)lag +1: r = -0.019 (n = 3,521)lag +2: r = -0.018 (n = 3,448)lag +3: r = -0.019 (n = 3,373)lag +4: r = -0.019 (n = 3,296)lag +5: r = -0.013 (n = 3,213)lag +6: r = -0.006 (n = 3,128)lag +7: r = 0.004 (n = 3,045)lag +8: r = 0.015 (n = 2,960)lag +9: r = 0.022 (n = 2,871)lag +10: r = 0.049 (n = 2,780)

Same year (lag 0): -0.022. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


index (0-1)
% of GDP		Years
Denmark DNK0.97533.4%2025, 2024
Switzerland CHE0.9699.45%2025, 2024
Ireland IRL0.96717.9%2025, 2024
Estonia EST0.96622.7%2025, 2024
Belgium BEL0.96323%2025, 2024
Sweden SWE0.9627.2%2025, 2024
Luxembourg LUX0.95628.6%2025, 2024
Norway NOR0.95524.5%2025, 2024
France FRA0.95322.8%2025, 2024
Uruguay URY0.94717.9%2025, 2024
Latvia LVA0.94317.6%2025, 2024
Chile CHL0.94318.3%2025, 2024
Jamaica JAM0.93623.7%2025, 2020
Finland FIN0.93625.3%2025, 2024
Czechia CZE0.93418.6%2025, 2024

Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Political civil liberties

Political civil liberties index

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Combines freedom of expression and freedom of association. So it shares both parts with the electoral democracy index.

Tax revenue

Tax revenue (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Political civil liberties and Tax revenue

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Political civil liberties changes Tax revenue, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Political civil liberties or Tax revenue