placestats

Out of school, primary vs. Undernourishment

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 155 countries, Out of school, primary and Undernourishment rise and fall together at r = +0.51 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.23, which could easily be chance (q = 0.18, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of undernourishment, 2.5% to 12.2% of population, out of school, primary is worse by 5.67% of primary-age children at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.1% of primary-age children.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.507p = 1.8e-11 · 155 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.227p = 0.005 · likely range [+0.07, +0.37]
p, allowing for regions0.124standard error 0.127 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.180across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Out of school, primary · % of primary-age childrenlink with income -0.45 · moderate
Undernourishment · % of populationlink with income -0.83 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Out of school, primary · % of primary-age children →Undernourishment · % of population →0.00387%43.8%2.5%39.5%Angola: 36.8% of primary-age children, 22.5% of populationAlbania: 0.488% of primary-age children, 5.4% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 0.00387% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationArgentina: 0.735% of primary-age children, 3.4% of populationArmenia: 1.08% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationAustralia: 0.124% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationAustria: 1.43% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationAzerbaijan: 0.0266% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationBelgium: 1.66% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationBenin: 9.61% of primary-age children, 14.3% of populationBurkina Faso: 34.3% of primary-age children, 13.1% of populationBangladesh: 5.86% of primary-age children, 10.4% of populationBulgaria: 5.9% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 2.1% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationBelarus: 4.49% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationBelize: 10.7% of primary-age children, 7% of populationBolivia: 9.25% of primary-age children, 21.8% of populationBrazil: 2.19% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationBarbados: 17.6% of primary-age children, 4.4% of populationBotswana: 0.535% of primary-age children, 24% of populationCentral African Republic: 37.9% of primary-age children, 29.8% of populationCanada: 4.99% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationSwitzerland: 0.143% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationChile: 2.12% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 12.6% of primary-age children, 11.1% of populationCameroon: 3.76% of primary-age children, 4.8% of populationCongo, Rep.: 17.1% of primary-age children, 26.4% of populationColombia: 7.32% of primary-age children, 3.9% of populationComoros: 20.6% of primary-age children, 15.4% of populationCabo Verde: 41.8% of primary-age children, 13.5% of populationCosta Rica: 4.49% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationCyprus: 0.425% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationCzechia: 0.809% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationGermany: 0.274% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationDominica: 3.95% of primary-age children, 3.6% of populationDenmark: 0.893% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationDominican Republic: 4.93% of primary-age children, 3.6% of populationAlgeria: 1.57% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationEcuador: 4.72% of primary-age children, 12.1% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 3.51% of primary-age children, 9.4% of populationSpain: 1.24% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationEstonia: 3.39% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationEthiopia: 22.5% of primary-age children, 19.7% of populationFinland: 1.77% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationFiji: 2.39% of primary-age children, 6.8% of populationFrance: 0.204% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationGabon: 28.8% of primary-age children, 25.3% of populationUnited Kingdom: 0.0698% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationGeorgia: 6.17% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationGhana: 4.77% of primary-age children, 6.3% of populationGuinea: 14.7% of primary-age children, 11.4% of populationGambia, The: 16.9% of primary-age children, 16.8% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 30.5% of primary-age children, 22.1% of populationGreece: 0.11% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationGuatemala: 8.43% of primary-age children, 11.8% of populationGuyana: 18% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationHong Kong SAR, China: 1.4% of primary-age children, 3.1% of populationHonduras: 26.6% of primary-age children, 14.8% of populationCroatia: 1.81% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationHungary: 2.81% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationIndonesia: 0.877% of primary-age children, 6.3% of populationIndia: 0.119% of primary-age children, 12% of populationIreland: 1.81% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.103% of primary-age children, 6.8% of populationIceland: 1.82% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationIsrael: 2.66% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationItaly: 2.06% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationJamaica: 4.34% of primary-age children, 7.7% of populationJordan: 1.89% of primary-age children, 14.3% of populationKazakhstan: 7.91% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationKenya: 32.9% of primary-age children, 36.8% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 2.96% of primary-age children, 5.1% of populationCambodia: 3.69% of primary-age children, 5.2% of populationKiribati: 8.71% of primary-age children, 4.1% of populationKorea, Rep.: 0.0557% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationKuwait: 7.47% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationLebanon: 22.5% of primary-age children, 8.7% of populationLiberia: 38.3% of primary-age children, 35.5% of populationSri Lanka: 9.14% of primary-age children, 7.4% of populationLithuania: 0.13% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationLuxembourg: 0.256% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationLatvia: 2.74% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationMacao SAR, China: 10.8% of primary-age children, 11.2% of populationMorocco: 0.471% of primary-age children, 7% of populationMoldova: 0.463% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationMadagascar: 3.4% of primary-age children, 39.5% of populationMexico: 0.363% of primary-age children, 2.7% of populationNorth Macedonia: 3.79% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationMali: 34% of primary-age children, 12.3% of populationMalta: 2.64% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationMyanmar: 1.41% of primary-age children, 5.4% of populationMontenegro: 0.218% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationMongolia: 8.56% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationMozambique: 1% of primary-age children, 21.8% of populationMauritania: 11.3% of primary-age children, 8.7% of populationMauritius: 0.785% of primary-age children, 8.7% of populationMalawi: 2.09% of primary-age children, 21.4% of populationMalaysia: 12% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationNamibia: 0.865% of primary-age children, 18.1% of populationNiger: 40.4% of primary-age children, 12.9% of populationNigeria: 24.3% of primary-age children, 19.9% of populationNicaragua: 6.66% of primary-age children, 17.3% of populationNetherlands: 0.519% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationNorway: 1.38% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationNepal: 0.762% of primary-age children, 5.3% of populationNew Zealand: 2.62% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationOman: 5.76% of primary-age children, 5.9% of populationPakistan: 17.9% of primary-age children, 16.5% of populationPanama: 7.7% of primary-age children, 5.7% of populationPeru: 0.156% of primary-age children, 6.9% of populationPhilippines: 11.6% of primary-age children, 3% of populationPapua New Guinea: 4% of primary-age children, 28.7% of populationPoland: 0.0917% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationPortugal: 0.508% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationParaguay: 13.3% of primary-age children, 5.2% of populationRomania: 15.6% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationRussian Federation: 4.94% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationRwanda: 0.97% of primary-age children, 24.4% of populationSaudi Arabia: 0.527% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationSudan: 43.8% of primary-age children, 11% of populationSenegal: 24.5% of primary-age children, 5.1% of populationSolomon Islands: 30.1% of primary-age children, 20% of populationSierra Leone: 0.888% of primary-age children, 24.1% of populationEl Salvador: 8.66% of primary-age children, 6.7% of populationSerbia: 3.33% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 2.88% of primary-age children, 17.4% of populationSuriname: 16.2% of primary-age children, 9.7% of populationSlovak Republic: 1.06% of primary-age children, 3.1% of populationSlovenia: 1.45% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationSweden: 0.57% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationEswatini: 3.83% of primary-age children, 14.7% of populationSeychelles: 6.8% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 21.8% of primary-age children, 39% of populationChad: 24.8% of primary-age children, 32% of populationTogo: 0.639% of primary-age children, 9.1% of populationThailand: 0.817% of primary-age children, 4.6% of populationTajikistan: 4.15% of primary-age children, 8.4% of populationTurkmenistan: 4.31% of primary-age children, 4.3% of populationTimor-Leste: 6.88% of primary-age children, 18.7% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 7.16% of primary-age children, 11.2% of populationTunisia: 1.09% of primary-age children, 3% of populationTurkiye: 0.603% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationTanzania: 16.4% of primary-age children, 20.2% of populationUganda: 4.12% of primary-age children, 22% of populationUkraine: 12.9% of primary-age children, 6.9% of populationUruguay: 0.0355% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationUnited States: 3.98% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationUzbekistan: 0.655% of primary-age children, 2.5% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 0.59% of primary-age children, 6.1% of populationViet Nam: 1.73% of primary-age children, 5.3% of populationVanuatu: 2.53% of primary-age children, 7.2% of populationSamoa: 1.81% of primary-age children, 3.6% of populationSouth Africa: 6.06% of primary-age children, 10% of populationZambia: 3.51% of primary-age children, 37.2% of populationZimbabwe: 10.5% of primary-age children, 19.7% of populationAREAZECAFCPVKENLBRMDGNERPNGSDNURYZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5071.8e-11155
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5091.3e-11155
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2270.005155
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2160.007155

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 155 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.279 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.183 (without KEN) to +0.270 (without MDG). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: KEN (-0.044).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific20+0.29
Europe & Central Asia48+0.20
Latin America & Caribbean25+0.29
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan15+0.48
Sub-Saharan Africa41+0.02

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third52+0.15
Middle third51+0.30
Richest third52+0.35

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians98+0.32
Muslims39+0.03

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France22+0.15
Never a European colony18+0.88
Spain18+0.08
United Kingdom45+0.03

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.169 after dropping 22 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 23years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.206, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose out of school, primary moved did not tend to see their undernourishment move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.227for comparison
Within countries+0.276each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.206q = 0.062 · 151 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.077q = 0.085

2,560 country-years (one country in one year), 151 countries, 2001–2023, about 17 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 13% for Out of school, primary, 18% for Undernourishment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Undernourishment trails Out of school, primary →lag -10: r = 0.050 (n = 1,604)lag -9: r = 0.054 (n = 1,706)lag -8: r = 0.057 (n = 1,810)lag -7: r = -0.005 (n = 1,926)lag -6: r = 0.005 (n = 2,041)lag -5: r = 0.017 (n = 2,155)lag -4: r = 0.044 (n = 2,260)lag -3: r = 0.095 (n = 2,360)lag -2: r = 0.144 (n = 2,466)lag -1: r = 0.179 (n = 2,557)lag +0: r = 0.206 (n = 2,560)lag +1: r = 0.221 (n = 2,519)lag +2: r = 0.215 (n = 2,470)lag +3: r = 0.218 (n = 2,384)lag +4: r = 0.190 (n = 2,293)lag +5: r = 0.182 (n = 2,210)lag +6: r = 0.179 (n = 2,118)lag +7: r = 0.192 (n = 2,015)lag +8: r = 0.175 (n = 1,932)lag +9: r = 0.172 (n = 1,840)lag +10: r = 0.157 (n = 1,752)

Same year (lag 0): +0.206. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of primary-age children
% of population		Years
Sudan SDN43.8%11%2019, 2021
Cabo Verde CPV41.8%13.5%2022, 2023
Niger NER40.4%12.9%2024, 2023
Liberia LBR38.3%35.5%2022, 2023
Central African Republic CAF37.9%29.8%2012, 2023
Angola AGO36.8%22.5%2023
Burkina Faso BFA34.3%13.1%2024, 2023
Mali MLI34%12.3%2023
Kenya KEN32.9%36.8%2022, 2023
Guinea-Bissau GNB30.5%22.1%2010, 2023
Solomon Islands SLB30.1%20%2024, 2023
Gabon GAB28.8%25.3%2019, 2023
Honduras HND26.6%14.8%2024, 2023
Chad TCD24.8%32%2024, 2023
Senegal SEN24.5%5.1%2024, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Out of school, primary

Children out of school (% of primary school age)

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Children of primary-school age not enrolled at any level. Treated as measuring the same thing as gross primary enrolment, which is on the site. They are two ways of asking whether children are in school, so their agreement is not a finding.

Undernourishment

Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)

Food and Agriculture Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Estimated from the food supply and how it is shared out, not by asking anyone. It is the FAO's model of how many people get less food energy than they need. The survey-based food insecurity measure below is treated as measuring the same thing. So their pair reads as two tools agreeing, not as a finding.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Out of school, primary and Undernourishment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Out of school, primary changes Undernourishment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Out of school, primary or Undernourishment