placestats

Middle Eastern ancestry vs. Youth not in work or study

Holds up after adjusting for income

A country is not a person, and ancestry is not destiny. Countries where more people have ancestors from one part of the world also tend to differ on the other measure, and that is all. It does notfollow that people with that ancestry are the people with the different score. Making that leap is called the ecological fallacy: reading a pattern across places as a fact about individual people. Ancestry also goes very closely with region and with history, including colonisation and the Atlantic slave trade, and with national income. So much of what looks like ancestry here is really those. That is what the adjusted figures and the region-by-region view are for. The shares are one estimate, for around the year 2000, of where people’s ancestors lived in 1500, not how anyone identifies.

Across 146 countries, Middle Eastern ancestry and Youth not in work or study rise and fall together at r = +0.08 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). There is almost no link to explain.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.077p = 0.354 · 146 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.162p = 0.051 · likely range [-0.00, +0.32]
p, allowing for regions0.002standard error 0.032 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.031across 13,797 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Middle Eastern ancestry · % of populationlink with income +0.16 · independent
Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year oldslink with income -0.63 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Middle Eastern ancestry · % of population →Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year olds →0%100%3.14%65.7%Afghanistan: 1% of population, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAngola: 0% of population, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlbania: 0% of population, 21% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Arab Emirates: 100% of population, 8.92% of 15 to 24 year oldsArgentina: 3% of population, 15.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsArmenia: 0% of population, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustralia: 2.5% of population, 8.53% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustria: 0% of population, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsAzerbaijan: 1% of population, 9.64% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurundi: 0% of population, 11.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelgium: 1.6% of population, 8.15% of 15 to 24 year oldsBenin: 0% of population, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurkina Faso: 0% of population, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsBangladesh: 0% of population, 15.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsBulgaria: 0% of population, 10.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBosnia and Herzegovina: 0% of population, 14.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelarus: 0% of population, 65.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelize: 0% of population, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBolivia: 0% of population, 8.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrazil: 0% of population, 18.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBhutan: 0% of population, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBotswana: 0% of population, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsCanada: 0.9% of population, 13.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSwitzerland: 0% of population, 6.99% of 15 to 24 year oldsChile: 2% of population, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCote d'Ivoire: 0.7% of population, 18.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsCameroon: 0% of population, 23.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0% of population, 31.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsColombia: 0% of population, 22% of 15 to 24 year oldsComoros: 0% of population, 21.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCabo Verde: 0% of population, 28% of 15 to 24 year oldsCosta Rica: 0% of population, 19.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCyprus: 0% of population, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCzechia: 0% of population, 4.62% of 15 to 24 year oldsGermany: 0% of population, 7.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsDenmark: 0% of population, 6.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsDominican Republic: 0% of population, 24.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlgeria: 100% of population, 20.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEcuador: 0% of population, 17.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 94.5% of population, 23.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSpain: 0.3% of population, 10.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsEstonia: 0% of population, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsEthiopia: 0% of population, 17.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsFinland: 0% of population, 8.28% of 15 to 24 year oldsFiji: 0% of population, 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsFrance: 4.8% of population, 12.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsGabon: 0% of population, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Kingdom: 0% of population, 14.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGeorgia: 0% of population, 14.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGhana: 0% of population, 23.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea: 0% of population, 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsGambia, The: 0% of population, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea-Bissau: 0.5% of population, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsGreece: 0% of population, 10.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuatemala: 0% of population, 24% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuyana: 0% of population, 44.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsHong Kong SAR, China: 0% of population, 5.95% of 15 to 24 year oldsHonduras: 0% of population, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsCroatia: 0% of population, 8.08% of 15 to 24 year oldsHaiti: 0% of population, 21.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsHungary: 0% of population, 9.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndonesia: 0% of population, 21.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndia: 0% of population, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsIreland: 0% of population, 5.67% of 15 to 24 year oldsIran, Islamic Rep.: 98% of population, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsIraq: 94.4% of population, 36.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsIsrael: 62.7% of population, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsItaly: 0.2% of population, 12% of 15 to 24 year oldsJamaica: 0% of population, 19.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsJordan: 98% of population, 29.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsJapan: 0% of population, 3.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsKazakhstan: 0% of population, 9.49% of 15 to 24 year oldsKenya: 0% of population, 18.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsKyrgyz Republic: 0% of population, 19.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsCambodia: 0% of population, 6.32% of 15 to 24 year oldsLao PDR: 0% of population, 22.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLebanon: 93.1% of population, 23.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLiberia: 0% of population, 39.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsSri Lanka: 0% of population, 17.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLesotho: 0% of population, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsLithuania: 0% of population, 14.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsLuxembourg: 0.8% of population, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLatvia: 0% of population, 9.89% of 15 to 24 year oldsMorocco: 91% of population, 35.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMoldova: 0% of population, 9.05% of 15 to 24 year oldsMadagascar: 0% of population, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMexico: 0.8% of population, 16.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorth Macedonia: 0% of population, 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsMali: 0.9% of population, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalta: 95.8% of population, 7.84% of 15 to 24 year oldsMyanmar: 0% of population, 15% of 15 to 24 year oldsMongolia: 0% of population, 9.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMozambique: 0% of population, 19.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritania: 0% of population, 44.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritius: 0% of population, 13.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalawi: 0% of population, 39.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalaysia: 0% of population, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsNamibia: 0% of population, 31.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNiger: 1.9% of population, 15.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsNigeria: 0% of population, 11.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNicaragua: 0% of population, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsNetherlands: 1% of population, 4.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorway: 0% of population, 5.82% of 15 to 24 year oldsNepal: 0% of population, 34.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsNew Zealand: 0% of population, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsOman: 81.4% of population, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPakistan: 0% of population, 28.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPanama: 0.6% of population, 15.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPeru: 0% of population, 22.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsPhilippines: 0% of population, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsPapua New Guinea: 0% of population, 27.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsPoland: 0% of population, 10.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPuerto Rico (US): 0% of population, 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPortugal: 0% of population, 7.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsParaguay: 0% of population, 18.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsRomania: 0% of population, 17% of 15 to 24 year oldsRussian Federation: 0% of population, 6.68% of 15 to 24 year oldsRwanda: 0% of population, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSaudi Arabia: 95.4% of population, 16.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsSudan: 1.2% of population, 46.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSenegal: 0.5% of population, 35.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSingapore: 0% of population, 6.46% of 15 to 24 year oldsSierra Leone: 0% of population, 25.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEl Salvador: 0% of population, 20.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 1.1% of population, 51% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovak Republic: 0% of population, 8.75% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovenia: 0% of population, 7.13% of 15 to 24 year oldsSweden: 0% of population, 5.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsEswatini: 0% of population, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsChad: 0% of population, 42.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTogo: 0% of population, 13% of 15 to 24 year oldsThailand: 0% of population, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsTajikistan: 0% of population, 41.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTimor-Leste: 0% of population, 29.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsTrinidad and Tobago: 0% of population, 15.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsTunisia: 100% of population, 22.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTurkiye: 0.7% of population, 22.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsTanzania: 0% of population, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUganda: 0% of population, 13.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUkraine: 0% of population, 16.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsUruguay: 0% of population, 14% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited States: 0.551% of population, 11.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsViet Nam: 0% of population, 10.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSouth Africa: 0% of population, 34.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsZambia: 0% of population, 26.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsZimbabwe: 0% of population, 36% of 15 to 24 year oldsAREBLRCZEIRQJORJPNMARMLTNLDSAUSDNSOM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.0770.354146
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.0380.646146
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1620.051146
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1650.047146

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 146 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: -0.085 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.129 (without IRQ) to +0.198 (without BLR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BLR (+0.035).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific17+0.04
Europe & Central Asia43+0.02
Latin America & Caribbean23-0.35
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan15+0.16
Sub-Saharan Africa41+0.11

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third49+0.18
Middle third48+0.16
Richest third49+0.16

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians89-0.07
Muslims38+0.30

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21+0.09
Never a European colony17+0.46
Spain18+0.54
United Kingdom42+0.12

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.207 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of population
% of 15 to 24 year olds		Years
Tunisia TUN100%22.6%2000, 2023
Algeria DZA100%20.9%2000, 2017
United Arab Emirates ARE100%8.92%2000, 2023
Jordan JOR98%29.4%2000, 2024
Iran, Islamic Rep. IRN98%24.3%2000, 2024
Malta MLT95.8%7.84%2000, 2024
Saudi Arabia SAU95.4%16.4%2000, 2025
Egypt, Arab Rep. EGY94.5%23.8%2000, 2024
Iraq IRQ94.4%36.9%2000, 2021
Lebanon LBN93.1%23.5%2000, 2019
Morocco MAR91%35.3%2000, 2014
Oman OMN81.4%25.5%2000, 2022
Israel ISR62.7%15.3%2000, 2024
France FRA4.8%12.6%2000, 2024
Argentina ARG3%15.2%2000, 2025

Putterman, L. and Weil, D. N. (2010), 'Post-1500 Population Flows and the Long-Run Determinants of Economic Growth and Inequality', Quarterly Journal of Economics 125(4); World Migration Matrix version 1.1 (2009).
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Middle Eastern ancestry

Middle Eastern and North African ancestry (share of the population)

Louis Putterman and David N. Weil, Brown University · No licence stated; used with citation · updated one edition (version 1.1, 2009)

The estimated share of today's population whose ancestors in the year 1500 lived in the Middle East or North Africa. This is the closest thing to race shares that can be compared across countries: national censuses each use their own race and ethnic categories, and most countries record none. It is about where people's ancestors lived, not how anyone identifies, and it is one estimate for around the year 2000, built from history, migration records and genetic studies. Every country's six ancestry shares add up to 100%, so they are linked to each other by arithmetic. No "better" direction is set.

Youth not in work or study

Share of youth not in education, employment or training, total (% of youth population)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

From labour force surveys, so yearly for about a hundred countries and occasional elsewhere.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2000–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 13,797 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Middle Eastern ancestry and Youth not in work or study

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Middle Eastern ancestry changes Youth not in work or study, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Middle Eastern ancestry or Youth not in work or study