placestats

Maternal mortality vs. Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 141 countries, Maternal mortality and Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion rise and fall together at r = -0.27 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.26, q = 0.019, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, 31.3% to 58.5% of unintended pregnancies, maternal mortality is better by 77.7 per 100,000 live births at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 52.1 per 100,000 live births.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.275p = 0.001 · 141 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.264p = 0.002 · likely range [-0.41, -0.10]
p, allowing for regions0.291standard error 0.229 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.019across 14,952 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Maternal mortality · per 100,000 live birthslink with income -0.85 · proxy
Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancieslink with income +0.12 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Maternal mortality · per 100,000 live births →Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion · % of unintended pregnancies →199319.7%86.1%Angola: 183 per 100,000 live births, 28.1% of unintended pregnanciesAlbania: 7 per 100,000 live births, 59.2% of unintended pregnanciesArgentina: 33 per 100,000 live births, 48.4% of unintended pregnanciesArmenia: 19 per 100,000 live births, 81.8% of unintended pregnanciesAustralia: 2 per 100,000 live births, 43.1% of unintended pregnanciesAzerbaijan: 18 per 100,000 live births, 77.6% of unintended pregnanciesBurundi: 392 per 100,000 live births, 26.2% of unintended pregnanciesBelgium: 4 per 100,000 live births, 37.1% of unintended pregnanciesBenin: 518 per 100,000 live births, 36.9% of unintended pregnanciesBurkina Faso: 242 per 100,000 live births, 40.6% of unintended pregnanciesBangladesh: 115 per 100,000 live births, 60.1% of unintended pregnanciesBulgaria: 6 per 100,000 live births, 35.7% of unintended pregnanciesBosnia and Herzegovina: 6 per 100,000 live births, 57.3% of unintended pregnanciesBelarus: 1 per 100,000 live births, 56% of unintended pregnanciesBelize: 67 per 100,000 live births, 45.2% of unintended pregnanciesBolivia: 146 per 100,000 live births, 36.3% of unintended pregnanciesBrazil: 67 per 100,000 live births, 48.4% of unintended pregnanciesBarbados: 35 per 100,000 live births, 58% of unintended pregnanciesBhutan: 47 per 100,000 live births, 67.9% of unintended pregnanciesBotswana: 155 per 100,000 live births, 32.2% of unintended pregnanciesCentral African Republic: 692 per 100,000 live births, 30% of unintended pregnanciesCanada: 12 per 100,000 live births, 36.8% of unintended pregnanciesSwitzerland: 5 per 100,000 live births, 25.5% of unintended pregnanciesChile: 10 per 100,000 live births, 52.5% of unintended pregnanciesChina: 16 per 100,000 live births, 77.9% of unintended pregnanciesCote d'Ivoire: 359 per 100,000 live births, 36.7% of unintended pregnanciesCameroon: 258 per 100,000 live births, 40.7% of unintended pregnanciesCongo, Dem. Rep.: 427 per 100,000 live births, 27.9% of unintended pregnanciesCongo, Rep.: 241 per 100,000 live births, 42.6% of unintended pregnanciesColombia: 59 per 100,000 live births, 43.2% of unintended pregnanciesComoros: 179 per 100,000 live births, 32.4% of unintended pregnanciesCabo Verde: 40 per 100,000 live births, 48.6% of unintended pregnanciesCosta Rica: 24 per 100,000 live births, 41% of unintended pregnanciesCzechia: 3 per 100,000 live births, 19.7% of unintended pregnanciesGermany: 4 per 100,000 live births, 27.1% of unintended pregnanciesDjibouti: 162 per 100,000 live births, 41.4% of unintended pregnanciesDenmark: 4 per 100,000 live births, 38.9% of unintended pregnanciesDominican Republic: 124 per 100,000 live births, 44% of unintended pregnanciesEcuador: 55 per 100,000 live births, 35.1% of unintended pregnanciesSpain: 3 per 100,000 live births, 43.1% of unintended pregnanciesEstonia: 5 per 100,000 live births, 41.7% of unintended pregnanciesEthiopia: 195 per 100,000 live births, 31% of unintended pregnanciesFinland: 8 per 100,000 live births, 24.8% of unintended pregnanciesFrance: 7 per 100,000 live births, 49.5% of unintended pregnanciesGabon: 233 per 100,000 live births, 36.8% of unintended pregnanciesUnited Kingdom: 8 per 100,000 live births, 36.2% of unintended pregnanciesGeorgia: 20 per 100,000 live births, 86.1% of unintended pregnanciesGhana: 234 per 100,000 live births, 35.9% of unintended pregnanciesGuinea: 494 per 100,000 live births, 38.1% of unintended pregnanciesGambia, The: 354 per 100,000 live births, 31.1% of unintended pregnanciesGuinea-Bissau: 505 per 100,000 live births, 58.5% of unintended pregnanciesGreece: 5 per 100,000 live births, 45.8% of unintended pregnanciesGuatemala: 94 per 100,000 live births, 30.1% of unintended pregnanciesGuyana: 75 per 100,000 live births, 47.5% of unintended pregnanciesHonduras: 47 per 100,000 live births, 30.6% of unintended pregnanciesCroatia: 3 per 100,000 live births, 49.9% of unintended pregnanciesHaiti: 328 per 100,000 live births, 35.5% of unintended pregnanciesHungary: 12 per 100,000 live births, 49.4% of unintended pregnanciesIndonesia: 140 per 100,000 live births, 63% of unintended pregnanciesIndia: 80 per 100,000 live births, 77.1% of unintended pregnanciesIceland: 3 per 100,000 live births, 39.1% of unintended pregnanciesItaly: 6 per 100,000 live births, 67.1% of unintended pregnanciesJamaica: 130 per 100,000 live births, 43.9% of unintended pregnanciesJapan: 3 per 100,000 live births, 30.1% of unintended pregnanciesKazakhstan: 10 per 100,000 live births, 82.1% of unintended pregnanciesKenya: 149 per 100,000 live births, 38% of unintended pregnanciesKyrgyz Republic: 42 per 100,000 live births, 79.2% of unintended pregnanciesCambodia: 137 per 100,000 live births, 65.3% of unintended pregnanciesKorea, Rep.: 4 per 100,000 live births, 61.9% of unintended pregnanciesLao PDR: 112 per 100,000 live births, 68.3% of unintended pregnanciesLiberia: 628 per 100,000 live births, 40.4% of unintended pregnanciesSt. Lucia: 44 per 100,000 live births, 54.6% of unintended pregnanciesSri Lanka: 18 per 100,000 live births, 72.3% of unintended pregnanciesLesotho: 478 per 100,000 live births, 23.9% of unintended pregnanciesLithuania: 8 per 100,000 live births, 27.7% of unintended pregnanciesLatvia: 19 per 100,000 live births, 30.2% of unintended pregnanciesMoldova: 19 per 100,000 live births, 70.6% of unintended pregnanciesMadagascar: 445 per 100,000 live births, 62.8% of unintended pregnanciesMaldives: 32 per 100,000 live births, 70.5% of unintended pregnanciesMexico: 42 per 100,000 live births, 50.9% of unintended pregnanciesNorth Macedonia: 3 per 100,000 live births, 63.4% of unintended pregnanciesMali: 367 per 100,000 live births, 33.5% of unintended pregnanciesMyanmar: 185 per 100,000 live births, 74.2% of unintended pregnanciesMontenegro: 6 per 100,000 live births, 54.2% of unintended pregnanciesMongolia: 41 per 100,000 live births, 65.7% of unintended pregnanciesMozambique: 99 per 100,000 live births, 46.7% of unintended pregnanciesMauritania: 381 per 100,000 live births, 25.4% of unintended pregnanciesMalawi: 225 per 100,000 live births, 27.4% of unintended pregnanciesNamibia: 139 per 100,000 live births, 27.9% of unintended pregnanciesNiger: 350 per 100,000 live births, 31.3% of unintended pregnanciesNigeria: 993 per 100,000 live births, 48.2% of unintended pregnanciesNicaragua: 60 per 100,000 live births, 27.5% of unintended pregnanciesNetherlands: 4 per 100,000 live births, 40.8% of unintended pregnanciesNorway: 1 per 100,000 live births, 31.7% of unintended pregnanciesNepal: 142 per 100,000 live births, 69.4% of unintended pregnanciesNew Zealand: 7 per 100,000 live births, 29.3% of unintended pregnanciesPakistan: 155 per 100,000 live births, 60.9% of unintended pregnanciesPanama: 37 per 100,000 live births, 41.3% of unintended pregnanciesPeru: 51 per 100,000 live births, 47.5% of unintended pregnanciesPhilippines: 84 per 100,000 live births, 50.5% of unintended pregnanciesPapua New Guinea: 189 per 100,000 live births, 46.3% of unintended pregnanciesPoland: 2 per 100,000 live births, 36.6% of unintended pregnanciesPuerto Rico (US): 11 per 100,000 live births, 58.3% of unintended pregnanciesPortugal: 15 per 100,000 live births, 32.4% of unintended pregnanciesParaguay: 58 per 100,000 live births, 51% of unintended pregnanciesRomania: 12 per 100,000 live births, 71.2% of unintended pregnanciesRussian Federation: 9 per 100,000 live births, 71.8% of unintended pregnanciesRwanda: 229 per 100,000 live births, 28.7% of unintended pregnanciesSenegal: 237 per 100,000 live births, 25.1% of unintended pregnanciesSingapore: 6 per 100,000 live births, 27.5% of unintended pregnanciesSolomon Islands: 123 per 100,000 live births, 28% of unintended pregnanciesSierra Leone: 354 per 100,000 live births, 51.5% of unintended pregnanciesEl Salvador: 39 per 100,000 live births, 41.5% of unintended pregnanciesSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 563 per 100,000 live births, 29.2% of unintended pregnanciesSerbia: 11 per 100,000 live births, 60.8% of unintended pregnanciesSao Tome and Principe: 75 per 100,000 live births, 29.6% of unintended pregnanciesSuriname: 84 per 100,000 live births, 46.5% of unintended pregnanciesSlovak Republic: 4 per 100,000 live births, 26.2% of unintended pregnanciesSlovenia: 3 per 100,000 live births, 24.4% of unintended pregnanciesSweden: 4 per 100,000 live births, 48.3% of unintended pregnanciesEswatini: 118 per 100,000 live births, 26.5% of unintended pregnanciesChad: 748 per 100,000 live births, 29.5% of unintended pregnanciesTogo: 349 per 100,000 live births, 32.2% of unintended pregnanciesThailand: 34 per 100,000 live births, 64.4% of unintended pregnanciesTajikistan: 14 per 100,000 live births, 71% of unintended pregnanciesTurkmenistan: 5 per 100,000 live births, 83.4% of unintended pregnanciesTimor-Leste: 192 per 100,000 live births, 67.8% of unintended pregnanciesTonga: 67 per 100,000 live births, 52% of unintended pregnanciesTrinidad and Tobago: 54 per 100,000 live births, 58% of unintended pregnanciesTanzania: 276 per 100,000 live births, 35.9% of unintended pregnanciesUganda: 170 per 100,000 live births, 29.7% of unintended pregnanciesUkraine: 15 per 100,000 live births, 75.9% of unintended pregnanciesUruguay: 15 per 100,000 live births, 27.6% of unintended pregnanciesUnited States: 17 per 100,000 live births, 34.2% of unintended pregnanciesUzbekistan: 26 per 100,000 live births, 80.2% of unintended pregnanciesViet Nam: 48 per 100,000 live births, 74.5% of unintended pregnanciesVanuatu: 100 per 100,000 live births, 45.4% of unintended pregnanciesSamoa: 101 per 100,000 live births, 64.5% of unintended pregnanciesSouth Africa: 118 per 100,000 live births, 36.6% of unintended pregnanciesZambia: 85 per 100,000 live births, 28.2% of unintended pregnanciesZimbabwe: 358 per 100,000 live births, 24.8% of unintended pregnanciesCAFCZEFINGEOGNBKAZMDGNGASVNTCDTKM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.2750.001141
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.2010.017141
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2640.002141
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2040.016141

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 141 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.010 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.332 (without NGA) to -0.248 (without TJK). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: NGA (-0.068).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific20+0.14
Europe & Central Asia43+0.16
Latin America & Caribbean26+0.09
Sub-Saharan Africa42+0.17

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third47-0.18
Middle third47-0.21
Richest third47+0.13

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians96-0.21
Muslims27-0.33

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21-0.37
Never a European colony16-0.44
Spain17+0.04
United Kingdom38-0.17

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.405 after dropping 10 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


per 100,000 live births
% of unintended pregnancies		Years
Nigeria NGA99348.2%2023, 2019
Chad TCD74829.5%2023, 2019
Central African Republic CAF69230%2023, 2019
Liberia LBR62840.4%2023, 2019
Somalia, Fed. Rep. SOM56329.2%2023, 2019
Benin BEN51836.9%2023, 2019
Guinea-Bissau GNB50558.5%2023, 2019
Guinea GIN49438.1%2023, 2019
Lesotho LSO47823.9%2023, 2019
Madagascar MDG44562.8%2023, 2019
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD42727.9%2023, 2019
Burundi BDI39226.2%2023, 2019
Mauritania MRT38125.4%2023, 2019
Mali MLI36733.5%2023, 2019
Cote d'Ivoire CIV35936.7%2023, 2019

World Bank, World Development Indicators
Bearak, J. M., Popinchalk, A., Beavin, C. et al. (2022), 'Country-specific estimates of unintended pregnancy and abortion incidence: a global comparative analysis of levels in 2015-2019', BMJ Global Health 7(3), e007151. Guttmacher Institute. Supplementary appendix, tables A3-A5.

Sources

Maternal mortality

Maternal mortality ratio, modelled estimate (per 100,000 live births)

WHO and the UN Maternal Mortality Estimation Inter-Agency Group · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Estimated with a model, like stunting, and for the same reason. Deaths in childbirth are rare in small countries with weak death records, so the agencies estimate rather than count.

Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

Share of unintended pregnancies ending in abortion (model estimate, 2015-2019)

Guttmacher Institute (Bearak et al. 2022, BMJ Global Health) · CC BY-NC 4.0 · updated one edition (2015-2019 estimates, published 2022)

Of the unintended pregnancies in the abortion rate's model, the share that ended in abortion, averaged over 2015-2019 (Guttmacher Institute). The rest ended in a birth or a miscarriage. Like the other two, it is an estimate with a range. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2019–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 14,952 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Maternal mortality and Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Maternal mortality changes Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Maternal mortality or Unintended pregnancies ending in abortion