placestats

Life expectancy vs. Population 65+

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 199 countries, Life expectancy and Population 65+ rise and fall together at r = +0.74 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.32, which could easily be chance (q = 0.27, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of population 65+, 4.05% to 17% of population, life expectancy is better by 9.36 years at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.11 years.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.740p = 9.5e-36 · 199 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.324p = 3.2e-6 · likely range [+0.19, +0.44]
p, allowing for regions0.014standard error 0.095 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.267across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Life expectancy · yearslink with income +0.87 · proxy
Population 65+ · % of populationlink with income +0.76 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Life expectancy · years →Population 65+ · % of population →54.685.81.7%30%Aruba: 76.5 years, 17.8% of populationAfghanistan: 66.3 years, 2.43% of populationAngola: 64.8 years, 2.89% of populationAlbania: 79.8 years, 17.6% of populationAndorra: 84.2 years, 16.6% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 83.1 years, 1.79% of populationArgentina: 77.5 years, 12.6% of populationArmenia: 78.3 years, 14.4% of populationAntigua and Barbuda: 77.8 years, 12.3% of populationAustralia: 83.1 years, 18.1% of populationAustria: 82 years, 21.1% of populationAzerbaijan: 74.6 years, 9.17% of populationBurundi: 63.8 years, 2.55% of populationBelgium: 82.3 years, 21% of populationBenin: 61 years, 3.15% of populationBurkina Faso: 61.3 years, 2.68% of populationBangladesh: 74.9 years, 6.67% of populationBulgaria: 75.8 years, 22.2% of populationBahrain: 81.4 years, 4.02% of populationBahamas, The: 74.7 years, 12.1% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 78 years, 22.9% of populationBelarus: 74.4 years, 18.3% of populationBelize: 73.7 years, 5.23% of populationBermuda: 82.5 years, 22.6% of populationBolivia: 68.7 years, 5.74% of populationBrazil: 76 years, 11.5% of populationBarbados: 76.3 years, 17.1% of populationBrunei Darussalam: 75.5 years, 7.24% of populationBhutan: 73.3 years, 6.63% of populationBotswana: 69.3 years, 4.08% of populationCentral African Republic: 57.7 years, 2.2% of populationCanada: 82.1 years, 20.3% of populationSwitzerland: 84.4 years, 20.4% of populationChile: 81.4 years, 14.6% of populationChina: 78 years, 14.9% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 62.1 years, 2.65% of populationCameroon: 64 years, 2.82% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 62.1 years, 3.08% of populationCongo, Rep.: 66 years, 3.06% of populationColombia: 77.9 years, 10.2% of populationComoros: 67 years, 4.45% of populationCabo Verde: 76.2 years, 7.15% of populationCosta Rica: 81 years, 12.8% of populationCuracao: 77 years, 17.3% of populationCayman Islands: 80.5 years, 9.51% of populationCyprus: 81.8 years, 14.9% of populationCzechia: 80 years, 21.2% of populationGermany: 80.8 years, 23.7% of populationDjibouti: 66.2 years, 4.97% of populationDominica: 71.3 years, 13.2% of populationDenmark: 82.3 years, 21.1% of populationDominican Republic: 73.9 years, 8.19% of populationAlgeria: 76.5 years, 6.81% of populationEcuador: 77.6 years, 8.6% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 71.8 years, 5.27% of populationSpain: 83.9 years, 21.6% of populationEstonia: 79.3 years, 21.8% of populationEthiopia: 67.6 years, 3.3% of populationFinland: 82.3 years, 24.2% of populationFiji: 67.5 years, 6.63% of populationFrance: 83 years, 22.5% of populationFaroe Islands: 83.1 years, 17.8% of populationMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 67.4 years, 6.18% of populationGabon: 68.5 years, 4.13% of populationUnited Kingdom: 81.4 years, 19.7% of populationGeorgia: 74.7 years, 16% of populationGhana: 65.7 years, 3.79% of populationGuinea: 60.9 years, 3.47% of populationGambia, The: 66.1 years, 3.18% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 64.3 years, 3.24% of populationEquatorial Guinea: 63.9 years, 3.76% of populationGreece: 81.8 years, 24.4% of populationGrenada: 75.4 years, 12.6% of populationGreenland: 70.3 years, 11.5% of populationGuatemala: 72.7 years, 4.96% of populationGuyana: 70.3 years, 6.98% of populationHong Kong SAR, China: 85.4 years, 23.7% of populationHonduras: 73 years, 4.54% of populationCroatia: 78.9 years, 23.6% of populationHaiti: 65.1 years, 4.79% of populationHungary: 76.7 years, 21.2% of populationIndonesia: 71.3 years, 7.54% of populationIndia: 72.2 years, 7.38% of populationIreland: 83 years, 16.2% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 77.9 years, 8.58% of populationIraq: 72.4 years, 3.45% of populationIceland: 82.8 years, 16% of populationIsrael: 83.2 years, 12.7% of populationItaly: 84 years, 25.1% of populationJamaica: 71.6 years, 8.58% of populationJordan: 78 years, 4.75% of populationJapan: 84 years, 30% of populationKazakhstan: 74.5 years, 9% of populationKenya: 63.8 years, 3.02% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 72.4 years, 5.97% of populationCambodia: 70.8 years, 6.38% of populationKiribati: 66.6 years, 4.38% of populationSt. Kitts and Nevis: 72.3 years, 11.7% of populationKorea, Rep.: 83.6 years, 20.3% of populationKuwait: 84.6 years, 3.17% of populationLao PDR: 69.2 years, 4.81% of populationLebanon: 77.9 years, 10.4% of populationLiberia: 62.3 years, 3.33% of populationLibya: 71.1 years, 5.19% of populationSt. Lucia: 72.8 years, 9.96% of populationSri Lanka: 77.7 years, 12.5% of populationLesotho: 57.8 years, 3.88% of populationLithuania: 77.2 years, 20.7% of populationLuxembourg: 83.2 years, 15.8% of populationLatvia: 76.4 years, 22.2% of populationMacao SAR, China: 83.3 years, 15.1% of populationMorocco: 75.5 years, 8.45% of populationMoldova: 71.3 years, 16.9% of populationMadagascar: 63.8 years, 3.47% of populationMaldives: 81.3 years, 4.96% of populationMexico: 75.3 years, 8.52% of populationMarshall Islands: 67.1 years, 4.88% of populationNorth Macedonia: 76.6 years, 18.5% of populationMali: 60.7 years, 2.36% of populationMalta: 83 years, 20.5% of populationMyanmar: 67.1 years, 7.52% of populationMontenegro: 77.9 years, 18.3% of populationMongolia: 72.4 years, 5.43% of populationMozambique: 63.8 years, 2.73% of populationMauritania: 68.7 years, 3.25% of populationMauritius: 73.8 years, 14.1% of populationMalawi: 67.6 years, 2.59% of populationMalaysia: 76.8 years, 8.03% of populationNamibia: 67.5 years, 3.79% of populationNiger: 61.4 years, 2.62% of populationNigeria: 54.6 years, 3.07% of populationNicaragua: 75.1 years, 5.7% of populationNetherlands: 82 years, 20.9% of populationNorway: 83.2 years, 19.1% of populationNepal: 70.6 years, 6.62% of populationNaoero: 62.3 years, 3.01% of populationNew Zealand: 82 years, 17.6% of populationOman: 80.2 years, 2.69% of populationPakistan: 67.8 years, 4.36% of populationPanama: 79.8 years, 9.66% of populationPeru: 77.9 years, 9.47% of populationPhilippines: 69.9 years, 5.72% of populationPalau: 69.4 years, 11.8% of populationPapua New Guinea: 66.3 years, 3.59% of populationPoland: 78.4 years, 20.8% of populationPuerto Rico (US): 81.9 years, 25.3% of populationPortugal: 82.4 years, 24.9% of populationParaguay: 74 years, 6.72% of populationWest Bank and Gaza: 69.2 years, 3.85% of populationQatar: 82.5 years, 1.7% of populationRomania: 76.5 years, 20.1% of populationRussian Federation: 73.4 years, 17.8% of populationRwanda: 68 years, 4.02% of populationSaudi Arabia: 79 years, 3.06% of populationSudan: 66.5 years, 3.39% of populationSenegal: 68.9 years, 3.65% of populationSingapore: 83.3 years, 14.2% of populationSolomon Islands: 70.7 years, 3.67% of populationSierra Leone: 62 years, 3.28% of populationEl Salvador: 72.3 years, 8.31% of populationSan Marino: 85.8 years, 23.1% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 59 years, 2.62% of populationSerbia: 76 years, 23.1% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 69.9 years, 3.94% of populationSuriname: 73.8 years, 8.19% of populationSlovak Republic: 78.4 years, 19% of populationSlovenia: 82.3 years, 22.2% of populationSweden: 84.1 years, 20.9% of populationEswatini: 64.3 years, 4.35% of populationSint Maarten (Dutch part): 76.5 years, 14.5% of populationSeychelles: 76.3 years, 8.75% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 72.6 years, 4.84% of populationTurks and Caicos Islands: 78.2 years, 11.7% of populationChad: 55.2 years, 2.12% of populationTogo: 62.9 years, 3.48% of populationThailand: 76.6 years, 16% of populationTajikistan: 71.9 years, 4.07% of populationTurkmenistan: 70.2 years, 4.81% of populationTimor-Leste: 67.9 years, 5.23% of populationTonga: 73.1 years, 6.85% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 73.6 years, 12.9% of populationTunisia: 76.7 years, 9.94% of populationTurkiye: 77.4 years, 10.6% of populationTuvalu: 67.3 years, 7.04% of populationTanzania: 67.2 years, 3.04% of populationUganda: 68.5 years, 2.23% of populationUkraine: 74.7 years, 19% of populationUruguay: 78.3 years, 16.3% of populationUnited States: 78.9 years, 18.4% of populationUzbekistan: 72.5 years, 6.07% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 71.4 years, 12.3% of populationVirgin Islands (U.S.): 80.8 years, 23.1% of populationViet Nam: 74.7 years, 9.49% of populationVanuatu: 71.7 years, 4.38% of populationSamoa: 71.8 years, 6.07% of populationKosovo: 78.2 years, 10.5% of populationSouth Africa: 66.3 years, 6.89% of populationZambia: 66.5 years, 2% of populationZimbabwe: 63.1 years, 3.56% of populationARECAFHKGITAJPNKWTNGAQATSRBTCD

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.7409.5e-36199
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.7633.4e-39199
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3243.2e-6199
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3223.6e-6199

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 199 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.416 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.299 (without GUY) to +0.350 (without KWT). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: KWT (+0.026).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific31+0.67
Europe & Central Asia53+0.36
Latin America & Caribbean38+0.40
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22+0.32
Sub-Saharan Africa46+0.40

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third67+0.57
Middle third66+0.30
Richest third66+0.34

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians112+0.44
Muslims50+0.29

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.75
Never a European colony21+0.51
Spain20+0.59
United Kingdom63+0.18

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.324 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = -0.212) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = -0.035). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.324for comparison
Within countries+0.405each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.212q = 2.0e-5 · 217 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.035q = 0.000
The direction flips. Comparing each country only with itself gives +0.41. Also taking out what happened to the whole world each year gives -0.21. So the first figure was picking up a trend both measures share with worldwide progress, not a link between them.

7,595 country-years (one country in one year), 217 countries, 1990–2024, about 35 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 11% for Life expectancy, 15% for Population 65+. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Population 65+ trails Life expectancy →lag -10: r = -0.221 (n = 5,425)lag -9: r = -0.220 (n = 5,642)lag -8: r = -0.222 (n = 5,859)lag -7: r = -0.226 (n = 6,076)lag -6: r = -0.229 (n = 6,293)lag -5: r = -0.226 (n = 6,510)lag -4: r = -0.219 (n = 6,727)lag -3: r = -0.212 (n = 6,944)lag -2: r = -0.207 (n = 7,161)lag -1: r = -0.211 (n = 7,378)lag +0: r = -0.212 (n = 7,595)lag +1: r = -0.216 (n = 7,595)lag +2: r = -0.206 (n = 7,378)lag +3: r = -0.193 (n = 7,161)lag +4: r = -0.185 (n = 6,944)lag +5: r = -0.179 (n = 6,727)lag +6: r = -0.169 (n = 6,510)lag +7: r = -0.162 (n = 6,293)lag +8: r = -0.152 (n = 6,076)lag +9: r = -0.144 (n = 5,859)lag +10: r = -0.136 (n = 5,642)

Same year (lag 0): -0.212. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


years
% of population		Years
San Marino SMR85.823.1%2024, 2025
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG85.423.7%2024, 2025
Kuwait KWT84.63.17%2024, 2025
Switzerland CHE84.420.4%2024, 2025
Andorra AND84.216.6%2024, 2025
Sweden SWE84.120.9%2024, 2025
Japan JPN8430%2024, 2025
Italy ITA8425.1%2024, 2025
Spain ESP83.921.6%2024, 2025
Korea, Rep. KOR83.620.3%2024, 2025
Singapore SGP83.314.2%2024, 2025
Macao SAR, China MAC83.315.1%2024, 2025
Israel ISR83.212.7%2024, 2025
Luxembourg LUX83.215.8%2024, 2025
Norway NOR83.219.1%2024, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Life expectancy

Life expectancy at birth, total (years)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Population 65+

Population ages 65 and above (% of total)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2024–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Life expectancy and Population 65+

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Life expectancy changes Population 65+, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Life expectancy or Population 65+