placestats

Inequality-adjusted HDI vs. Youth not in work or study

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 160 countries, Inequality-adjusted HDI and Youth not in work or study rise and fall together at r = -0.59 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.17, which could easily be chance (q = 0.17, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of inequality-adjusted hdi, 0.438 to 0.771 points, youth not in work or study is better by 11.7% of 15 to 24 year olds at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 7.7% of 15 to 24 year olds.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.590p = 2.3e-16 · 160 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.174p = 0.029 · likely range [-0.32, -0.02]
p, allowing for regions0.044standard error 0.068 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.169across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Inequality-adjusted HDI · index, 0 to 1link with income +0.94 · proxy
Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year oldslink with income -0.63 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Inequality-adjusted HDI · index, 0 to 1 →Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year olds →0.2290.9233.14%65.7%Afghanistan: 0.321 index, 0 to 1, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAngola: 0.36 index, 0 to 1, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlbania: 0.705 index, 0 to 1, 21% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Arab Emirates: 0.866 index, 0 to 1, 8.92% of 15 to 24 year oldsArgentina: 0.761 index, 0 to 1, 15.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsArmenia: 0.743 index, 0 to 1, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustralia: 0.873 index, 0 to 1, 8.53% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustria: 0.861 index, 0 to 1, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsAzerbaijan: 0.735 index, 0 to 1, 9.64% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurundi: 0.286 index, 0 to 1, 11.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelgium: 0.891 index, 0 to 1, 8.15% of 15 to 24 year oldsBenin: 0.316 index, 0 to 1, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurkina Faso: 0.273 index, 0 to 1, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsBangladesh: 0.482 index, 0 to 1, 15.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsBulgaria: 0.748 index, 0 to 1, 10.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.689 index, 0 to 1, 14.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelarus: 0.771 index, 0 to 1, 65.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBolivia: 0.578 index, 0 to 1, 8.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrazil: 0.594 index, 0 to 1, 18.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBarbados: 0.62 index, 0 to 1, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrunei Darussalam: 0.756 index, 0 to 1, 19% of 15 to 24 year oldsBhutan: 0.478 index, 0 to 1, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBotswana: 0.509 index, 0 to 1, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsCanada: 0.867 index, 0 to 1, 13.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSwitzerland: 0.894 index, 0 to 1, 6.99% of 15 to 24 year oldsChile: 0.723 index, 0 to 1, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCote d'Ivoire: 0.35 index, 0 to 1, 18.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsCameroon: 0.361 index, 0 to 1, 23.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.341 index, 0 to 1, 31.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsColombia: 0.593 index, 0 to 1, 22% of 15 to 24 year oldsComoros: 0.356 index, 0 to 1, 21.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCabo Verde: 0.478 index, 0 to 1, 28% of 15 to 24 year oldsCosta Rica: 0.678 index, 0 to 1, 19.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCyprus: 0.841 index, 0 to 1, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCzechia: 0.867 index, 0 to 1, 4.62% of 15 to 24 year oldsGermany: 0.89 index, 0 to 1, 7.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsDjibouti: 0.341 index, 0 to 1, 44% of 15 to 24 year oldsDenmark: 0.909 index, 0 to 1, 6.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsDominican Republic: 0.634 index, 0 to 1, 24.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlgeria: 0.601 index, 0 to 1, 20.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEcuador: 0.64 index, 0 to 1, 17.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.582 index, 0 to 1, 23.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSpain: 0.819 index, 0 to 1, 10.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsEstonia: 0.841 index, 0 to 1, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsEthiopia: 0.326 index, 0 to 1, 17.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsFinland: 0.891 index, 0 to 1, 8.28% of 15 to 24 year oldsFiji: 0.626 index, 0 to 1, 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsFrance: 0.836 index, 0 to 1, 12.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsGabon: 0.558 index, 0 to 1, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Kingdom: 0.869 index, 0 to 1, 14.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGeorgia: 0.754 index, 0 to 1, 14.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGhana: 0.399 index, 0 to 1, 23.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea: 0.302 index, 0 to 1, 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsGambia, The: 0.329 index, 0 to 1, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea-Bissau: 0.331 index, 0 to 1, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsGreece: 0.825 index, 0 to 1, 10.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuatemala: 0.479 index, 0 to 1, 24% of 15 to 24 year oldsHong Kong SAR, China: 0.839 index, 0 to 1, 5.95% of 15 to 24 year oldsHonduras: 0.496 index, 0 to 1, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsCroatia: 0.828 index, 0 to 1, 8.08% of 15 to 24 year oldsHaiti: 0.337 index, 0 to 1, 21.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsHungary: 0.819 index, 0 to 1, 9.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndonesia: 0.608 index, 0 to 1, 21.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndia: 0.475 index, 0 to 1, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsIreland: 0.886 index, 0 to 1, 5.67% of 15 to 24 year oldsIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.643 index, 0 to 1, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsIraq: 0.534 index, 0 to 1, 36.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsIceland: 0.923 index, 0 to 1, 3.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIsrael: 0.813 index, 0 to 1, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsItaly: 0.817 index, 0 to 1, 12% of 15 to 24 year oldsJamaica: 0.59 index, 0 to 1, 19.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsJordan: 0.637 index, 0 to 1, 29.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsJapan: 0.845 index, 0 to 1, 3.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsKazakhstan: 0.766 index, 0 to 1, 9.49% of 15 to 24 year oldsKenya: 0.456 index, 0 to 1, 18.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsKyrgyz Republic: 0.649 index, 0 to 1, 19.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsCambodia: 0.444 index, 0 to 1, 6.32% of 15 to 24 year oldsKiribati: 0.535 index, 0 to 1, 35.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsLao PDR: 0.462 index, 0 to 1, 22.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLiberia: 0.326 index, 0 to 1, 39.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsSt. Lucia: 0.523 index, 0 to 1, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSri Lanka: 0.63 index, 0 to 1, 17.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLesotho: 0.357 index, 0 to 1, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsLithuania: 0.812 index, 0 to 1, 14.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsLuxembourg: 0.838 index, 0 to 1, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLatvia: 0.812 index, 0 to 1, 9.89% of 15 to 24 year oldsMorocco: 0.517 index, 0 to 1, 35.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMoldova: 0.719 index, 0 to 1, 9.05% of 15 to 24 year oldsMadagascar: 0.319 index, 0 to 1, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMaldives: 0.602 index, 0 to 1, 26.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMexico: 0.646 index, 0 to 1, 16.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMarshall Islands: 0.626 index, 0 to 1, 40% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorth Macedonia: 0.723 index, 0 to 1, 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsMali: 0.281 index, 0 to 1, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalta: 0.843 index, 0 to 1, 7.84% of 15 to 24 year oldsMyanmar: 0.477 index, 0 to 1, 15% of 15 to 24 year oldsMontenegro: 0.771 index, 0 to 1, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMongolia: 0.647 index, 0 to 1, 9.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMozambique: 0.297 index, 0 to 1, 19.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritania: 0.374 index, 0 to 1, 44.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritius: 0.669 index, 0 to 1, 13.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalawi: 0.365 index, 0 to 1, 39.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalaysia: 0.707 index, 0 to 1, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsNamibia: 0.438 index, 0 to 1, 31.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNiger: 0.265 index, 0 to 1, 15.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsNigeria: 0.379 index, 0 to 1, 11.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNicaragua: 0.535 index, 0 to 1, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsNetherlands: 0.892 index, 0 to 1, 4.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorway: 0.909 index, 0 to 1, 5.82% of 15 to 24 year oldsNepal: 0.437 index, 0 to 1, 34.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsNaoero: 0.599 index, 0 to 1, 50.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsNew Zealand: 0.853 index, 0 to 1, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsOman: 0.75 index, 0 to 1, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPakistan: 0.364 index, 0 to 1, 28.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPanama: 0.664 index, 0 to 1, 15.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPeru: 0.633 index, 0 to 1, 22.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsPhilippines: 0.597 index, 0 to 1, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsPalau: 0.616 index, 0 to 1, 11.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsPapua New Guinea: 0.423 index, 0 to 1, 27.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsPoland: 0.817 index, 0 to 1, 10.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPortugal: 0.795 index, 0 to 1, 7.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsParaguay: 0.599 index, 0 to 1, 18.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsWest Bank and Gaza: 0.538 index, 0 to 1, 25.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsRomania: 0.758 index, 0 to 1, 17% of 15 to 24 year oldsRussian Federation: 0.758 index, 0 to 1, 6.68% of 15 to 24 year oldsRwanda: 0.399 index, 0 to 1, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSudan: 0.328 index, 0 to 1, 46.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSenegal: 0.34 index, 0 to 1, 35.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSingapore: 0.823 index, 0 to 1, 6.46% of 15 to 24 year oldsSolomon Islands: 0.483 index, 0 to 1, 7.04% of 15 to 24 year oldsSierra Leone: 0.281 index, 0 to 1, 25.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEl Salvador: 0.555 index, 0 to 1, 20.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.229 index, 0 to 1, 51% of 15 to 24 year oldsSerbia: 0.772 index, 0 to 1, 12.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsSao Tome and Principe: 0.478 index, 0 to 1, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovak Republic: 0.833 index, 0 to 1, 8.75% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovenia: 0.885 index, 0 to 1, 7.13% of 15 to 24 year oldsSweden: 0.886 index, 0 to 1, 5.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsEswatini: 0.431 index, 0 to 1, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSeychelles: 0.755 index, 0 to 1, 16.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsChad: 0.252 index, 0 to 1, 42.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTogo: 0.363 index, 0 to 1, 13% of 15 to 24 year oldsThailand: 0.677 index, 0 to 1, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsTajikistan: 0.594 index, 0 to 1, 41.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTimor-Leste: 0.451 index, 0 to 1, 29.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsTonga: 0.682 index, 0 to 1, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTunisia: 0.595 index, 0 to 1, 22.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTurkiye: 0.708 index, 0 to 1, 22.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsTuvalu: 0.578 index, 0 to 1, 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTanzania: 0.391 index, 0 to 1, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUganda: 0.4 index, 0 to 1, 13.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUkraine: 0.715 index, 0 to 1, 16.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsUruguay: 0.747 index, 0 to 1, 14% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited States: 0.832 index, 0 to 1, 11.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsViet Nam: 0.641 index, 0 to 1, 10.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsVanuatu: 0.521 index, 0 to 1, 29.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSamoa: 0.609 index, 0 to 1, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsSouth Africa: 0.476 index, 0 to 1, 34.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsZambia: 0.361 index, 0 to 1, 26.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsZimbabwe: 0.406 index, 0 to 1, 36% of 15 to 24 year oldsBDIBLRISLKHMMHLNERNLDNORNRUSDNSOMTCD

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5902.3e-16160
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.6732.0e-22160
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1740.029160
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2230.005160

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 160 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.416 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.219 (without BLR) to -0.143 (without SLB). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: BLR (-0.045).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific27+0.12
Europe & Central Asia46-0.21
Latin America & Caribbean21-0.46
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan15-0.54
Sub-Saharan Africa43-0.13

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third54-0.01
Middle third53-0.34
Richest third53-0.22

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians97-0.26
Muslims40-0.06

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France21-0.53
Never a European colony16+0.07
Spain18-0.44
United Kingdom50-0.19

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.235 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 14years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.157, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose inequality-adjusted hdi moved did not tend to see their youth not in work or study move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.174for comparison
Within countries-0.330each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.157q = 0.135 · 107 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.053q = 0.379
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

1,224 country-years (one country in one year), 107 countries, 2010–2023, about 11 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 1% for Inequality-adjusted HDI, 11% for Youth not in work or study. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Youth not in work or study trails Inequality-adjusted HDI →lag -10: r = 0.008 (n = 860)lag -9: r = -0.002 (n = 900)lag -8: r = -0.004 (n = 942)lag -7: r = -0.063 (n = 999)lag -6: r = -0.088 (n = 1,045)lag -5: r = -0.133 (n = 1,071)lag -4: r = -0.157 (n = 1,115)lag -3: r = -0.148 (n = 1,145)lag -2: r = -0.146 (n = 1,172)lag -1: r = -0.138 (n = 1,218)lag +0: r = -0.157 (n = 1,224)lag +1: r = -0.090 (n = 1,221)lag +2: r = -0.072 (n = 1,159)lag +3: r = -0.047 (n = 1,065)lag +4: r = -0.076 (n = 955)lag +5: r = -0.111 (n = 863)lag +6: r = -0.117 (n = 767)lag +7: r = -0.091 (n = 665)lag +8: r = -0.137 (n = 564)lag +9: r = -0.132 (n = 452)lag +10: r = -0.128 (n = 352)

Same year (lag 0): -0.157. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


index, 0 to 1
% of 15 to 24 year olds		Years
Iceland ISL0.9233.98%2023, 2024
Norway NOR0.9095.82%2023, 2024
Denmark DNK0.9096.9%2023, 2024
Switzerland CHE0.8946.99%2023, 2025
Netherlands NLD0.8924.14%2023, 2024
Finland FIN0.8918.28%2023, 2024
Belgium BEL0.8918.15%2023, 2024
Germany DEU0.897.58%2023, 2024
Sweden SWE0.8865.58%2023, 2024
Ireland IRL0.8865.67%2023, 2024
Slovenia SVN0.8857.13%2023, 2024
Australia AUS0.8738.53%2023, 2024
United Kingdom GBR0.86914.4%2023, 2025
Czechia CZE0.8674.62%2023, 2024
Canada CAN0.86713.3%2023, 2025

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Inequality-adjusted HDI

Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual · comparable from 2010 only

The HDI marked down for how unequally each of its three parts is spread within the country. The gap between this and the HDI is what inequality costs, and that is the number worth reading. The level itself is the HDI again, with its parts flagged the same way.

Youth not in work or study

Share of youth not in education, employment or training, total (% of youth population)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

From labour force surveys, so yearly for about a hundred countries and occasional elsewhere.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Inequality-adjusted HDI and Youth not in work or study

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Inequality-adjusted HDI changes Youth not in work or study, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Inequality-adjusted HDI or Youth not in work or study