placestats

Inequality-adjusted HDI vs. Pre-trial detainee share

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 149 countries, Inequality-adjusted HDI and Pre-trial detainee share rise and fall together at r = -0.34 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.17 (q = 0.039, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a very weak negative link remains. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of pre-trial detainee share, 20.3% to 47.2% of prisoners, inequality-adjusted hdi is worse by 0.0974 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.0186 points.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.336p = 2.9e-5 · 149 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.169p = 0.040 · likely range [-0.32, -0.01]
p, allowing for regions0.004standard error 0.037 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.039across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Inequality-adjusted HDI · index, 0 to 1link with income +0.94 · proxy
Pre-trial detainee share · % of prisonerslink with income -0.27 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Inequality-adjusted HDI · index, 0 to 1 →Pre-trial detainee share · % of prisoners →0.2650.9230.3%83.6%Afghanistan: 0.321 index, 0 to 1, 31.3% of prisonersAngola: 0.36 index, 0 to 1, 48.5% of prisonersAlbania: 0.705 index, 0 to 1, 62% of prisonersAndorra: 0.837 index, 0 to 1, 37.3% of prisonersUnited Arab Emirates: 0.866 index, 0 to 1, 38.2% of prisonersArgentina: 0.761 index, 0 to 1, 38.8% of prisonersArmenia: 0.743 index, 0 to 1, 52.2% of prisonersAustralia: 0.873 index, 0 to 1, 39.9% of prisonersAustria: 0.861 index, 0 to 1, 19.6% of prisonersAzerbaijan: 0.735 index, 0 to 1, 20.7% of prisonersBurundi: 0.286 index, 0 to 1, 53.1% of prisonersBelgium: 0.891 index, 0 to 1, 23.6% of prisonersBenin: 0.316 index, 0 to 1, 59.9% of prisonersBurkina Faso: 0.273 index, 0 to 1, 29% of prisonersBangladesh: 0.482 index, 0 to 1, 75.6% of prisonersBulgaria: 0.748 index, 0 to 1, 8.79% of prisonersBahamas, The: 0.67 index, 0 to 1, 32.7% of prisonersBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.689 index, 0 to 1, 36.6% of prisonersBelarus: 0.771 index, 0 to 1, 9.17% of prisonersBolivia: 0.578 index, 0 to 1, 58.7% of prisonersBrazil: 0.594 index, 0 to 1, 27.3% of prisonersBarbados: 0.62 index, 0 to 1, 57.9% of prisonersBrunei Darussalam: 0.756 index, 0 to 1, 7.08% of prisonersBhutan: 0.478 index, 0 to 1, 14.2% of prisonersBotswana: 0.509 index, 0 to 1, 22.5% of prisonersCanada: 0.867 index, 0 to 1, 49.9% of prisonersSwitzerland: 0.894 index, 0 to 1, 51.9% of prisonersChile: 0.723 index, 0 to 1, 36.5% of prisonersCote d'Ivoire: 0.35 index, 0 to 1, 33.7% of prisonersCameroon: 0.361 index, 0 to 1, 55.5% of prisonersCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.341 index, 0 to 1, 70% of prisonersColombia: 0.593 index, 0 to 1, 21.6% of prisonersCabo Verde: 0.478 index, 0 to 1, 31.3% of prisonersCosta Rica: 0.678 index, 0 to 1, 23.7% of prisonersCyprus: 0.841 index, 0 to 1, 24.4% of prisonersCzechia: 0.867 index, 0 to 1, 8.21% of prisonersGermany: 0.89 index, 0 to 1, 27% of prisonersDjibouti: 0.341 index, 0 to 1, 35.8% of prisonersDenmark: 0.909 index, 0 to 1, 23.9% of prisonersDominican Republic: 0.634 index, 0 to 1, 62% of prisonersAlgeria: 0.601 index, 0 to 1, 0.3% of prisonersEcuador: 0.64 index, 0 to 1, 34.6% of prisonersEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.582 index, 0 to 1, 9.9% of prisonersSpain: 0.819 index, 0 to 1, 17.7% of prisonersEstonia: 0.841 index, 0 to 1, 20.2% of prisonersFinland: 0.891 index, 0 to 1, 27.4% of prisonersFiji: 0.626 index, 0 to 1, 19.9% of prisonersFrance: 0.836 index, 0 to 1, 25.8% of prisonersGabon: 0.558 index, 0 to 1, 70% of prisonersGeorgia: 0.754 index, 0 to 1, 19.3% of prisonersGhana: 0.399 index, 0 to 1, 10.5% of prisonersGuinea: 0.302 index, 0 to 1, 55.5% of prisonersGambia, The: 0.329 index, 0 to 1, 55.6% of prisonersGuinea-Bissau: 0.331 index, 0 to 1, 55.5% of prisonersGreece: 0.825 index, 0 to 1, 25.5% of prisonersGuatemala: 0.479 index, 0 to 1, 28.3% of prisonersHong Kong SAR, China: 0.839 index, 0 to 1, 40.6% of prisonersHonduras: 0.496 index, 0 to 1, 49.2% of prisonersCroatia: 0.828 index, 0 to 1, 42.4% of prisonersHaiti: 0.337 index, 0 to 1, 83.6% of prisonersHungary: 0.819 index, 0 to 1, 20.7% of prisonersIndonesia: 0.608 index, 0 to 1, 21.3% of prisonersIndia: 0.475 index, 0 to 1, 73.5% of prisonersIreland: 0.886 index, 0 to 1, 19.3% of prisonersIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.643 index, 0 to 1, 25.1% of prisonersIceland: 0.923 index, 0 to 1, 42.6% of prisonersIsrael: 0.813 index, 0 to 1, 25.8% of prisonersItaly: 0.817 index, 0 to 1, 16.9% of prisonersJamaica: 0.59 index, 0 to 1, 39.2% of prisonersJordan: 0.637 index, 0 to 1, 36.9% of prisonersJapan: 0.845 index, 0 to 1, 15.5% of prisonersKazakhstan: 0.766 index, 0 to 1, 20.3% of prisonersKenya: 0.456 index, 0 to 1, 41% of prisonersKyrgyz Republic: 0.649 index, 0 to 1, 25.6% of prisonersCambodia: 0.444 index, 0 to 1, 26.6% of prisonersKiribati: 0.535 index, 0 to 1, 5.4% of prisonersKorea, Rep.: 0.857 index, 0 to 1, 35% of prisonersLiberia: 0.326 index, 0 to 1, 60.5% of prisonersSt. Lucia: 0.523 index, 0 to 1, 62.1% of prisonersSri Lanka: 0.63 index, 0 to 1, 66.2% of prisonersLesotho: 0.357 index, 0 to 1, 19.5% of prisonersLithuania: 0.812 index, 0 to 1, 13% of prisonersLuxembourg: 0.838 index, 0 to 1, 48.3% of prisonersLatvia: 0.812 index, 0 to 1, 28.6% of prisonersMorocco: 0.517 index, 0 to 1, 10.5% of prisonersMoldova: 0.719 index, 0 to 1, 17% of prisonersMadagascar: 0.319 index, 0 to 1, 39.3% of prisonersMexico: 0.646 index, 0 to 1, 36.3% of prisonersNorth Macedonia: 0.723 index, 0 to 1, 14% of prisonersMalta: 0.843 index, 0 to 1, 38.2% of prisonersMyanmar: 0.477 index, 0 to 1, 22% of prisonersMontenegro: 0.771 index, 0 to 1, 54.3% of prisonersMongolia: 0.647 index, 0 to 1, 18.9% of prisonersMozambique: 0.297 index, 0 to 1, 27.9% of prisonersMauritania: 0.374 index, 0 to 1, 50% of prisonersMauritius: 0.669 index, 0 to 1, 46.1% of prisonersMalawi: 0.365 index, 0 to 1, 17.6% of prisonersMalaysia: 0.707 index, 0 to 1, 32.6% of prisonersNamibia: 0.438 index, 0 to 1, 3.16% of prisonersNiger: 0.265 index, 0 to 1, 62% of prisonersNigeria: 0.379 index, 0 to 1, 66.8% of prisonersNicaragua: 0.535 index, 0 to 1, 14.3% of prisonersNetherlands: 0.892 index, 0 to 1, 27.1% of prisonersNorway: 0.909 index, 0 to 1, 22.4% of prisonersNepal: 0.437 index, 0 to 1, 53% of prisonersNaoero: 0.599 index, 0 to 1, 34.2% of prisonersNew Zealand: 0.853 index, 0 to 1, 42.3% of prisonersPakistan: 0.364 index, 0 to 1, 69% of prisonersPanama: 0.664 index, 0 to 1, 35.2% of prisonersPeru: 0.633 index, 0 to 1, 38% of prisonersPhilippines: 0.597 index, 0 to 1, 65.2% of prisonersPapua New Guinea: 0.423 index, 0 to 1, 42.9% of prisonersPoland: 0.817 index, 0 to 1, 10.9% of prisonersPortugal: 0.795 index, 0 to 1, 21.7% of prisonersParaguay: 0.599 index, 0 to 1, 63.9% of prisonersWest Bank and Gaza: 0.538 index, 0 to 1, 47.7% of prisonersRomania: 0.758 index, 0 to 1, 9.22% of prisonersRussian Federation: 0.758 index, 0 to 1, 15.4% of prisonersRwanda: 0.399 index, 0 to 1, 9.01% of prisonersSudan: 0.328 index, 0 to 1, 20.4% of prisonersSenegal: 0.34 index, 0 to 1, 48% of prisonersSingapore: 0.823 index, 0 to 1, 13.1% of prisonersSolomon Islands: 0.483 index, 0 to 1, 32.7% of prisonersSierra Leone: 0.281 index, 0 to 1, 51.1% of prisonersEl Salvador: 0.555 index, 0 to 1, 26% of prisonersSerbia: 0.772 index, 0 to 1, 21.5% of prisonersSao Tome and Principe: 0.478 index, 0 to 1, 32.8% of prisonersSlovak Republic: 0.833 index, 0 to 1, 13% of prisonersSlovenia: 0.885 index, 0 to 1, 39.8% of prisonersSweden: 0.886 index, 0 to 1, 27% of prisonersEswatini: 0.431 index, 0 to 1, 24.5% of prisonersSeychelles: 0.755 index, 0 to 1, 31.6% of prisonersTogo: 0.363 index, 0 to 1, 60% of prisonersThailand: 0.677 index, 0 to 1, 8.94% of prisonersTimor-Leste: 0.451 index, 0 to 1, 23.8% of prisonersTonga: 0.682 index, 0 to 1, 33% of prisonersTunisia: 0.595 index, 0 to 1, 54.9% of prisonersTurkiye: 0.708 index, 0 to 1, 14.4% of prisonersTanzania: 0.391 index, 0 to 1, 31.4% of prisonersUganda: 0.4 index, 0 to 1, 47.2% of prisonersUkraine: 0.715 index, 0 to 1, 34.9% of prisonersUruguay: 0.747 index, 0 to 1, 6.29% of prisonersUnited States: 0.832 index, 0 to 1, 26.7% of prisonersViet Nam: 0.641 index, 0 to 1, 11.5% of prisonersVanuatu: 0.521 index, 0 to 1, 32.3% of prisonersSamoa: 0.609 index, 0 to 1, 23.2% of prisonersSouth Africa: 0.476 index, 0 to 1, 38% of prisonersZambia: 0.361 index, 0 to 1, 18.1% of prisonersZimbabwe: 0.406 index, 0 to 1, 23.5% of prisonersCANCHECODCZEGHAHTIISLNAMNERPOLRWASVK

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3362.9e-5149
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.2930.000149
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1690.040149
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1340.105149

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 149 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.167 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.194 (without NAM) to -0.142 (without KIR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: KIR (+0.027).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific24+0.18
Europe & Central Asia45+0.07
Latin America & Caribbean22-0.30
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan13+0.04
Sub-Saharan Africa38-0.14

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third50-0.37
Middle third49-0.03
Richest third50+0.18

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians96-0.17
Muslims32-0.18

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France17-0.16
Never a European colony14+0.14
Spain18+0.08
United Kingdom47-0.12

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.169 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 14years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.087, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose inequality-adjusted hdi moved did not tend to see their pre-trial detainee share move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.169for comparison
Within countries-0.028each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.087q = 0.367 · 111 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.017q = 0.864
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

1,241 country-years (one country in one year), 111 countries, 2010–2023, about 11 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 12% for Inequality-adjusted HDI, 1% for Pre-trial detainee share. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Pre-trial detainee share trails Inequality-adjusted HDI →lag -10: r = -0.082 (n = 847)lag -9: r = -0.114 (n = 942)lag -8: r = -0.154 (n = 1,056)lag -7: r = -0.190 (n = 1,165)lag -6: r = -0.203 (n = 1,219)lag -5: r = -0.164 (n = 1,247)lag -4: r = -0.162 (n = 1,239)lag -3: r = -0.139 (n = 1,240)lag -2: r = -0.122 (n = 1,251)lag -1: r = -0.098 (n = 1,255)lag +0: r = -0.087 (n = 1,241)lag +1: r = -0.094 (n = 1,224)lag +2: r = -0.073 (n = 1,130)lag +3: r = -0.031 (n = 1,010)lag +4: r = -0.030 (n = 905)lag +5: r = -0.046 (n = 818)lag +6: r = -0.037 (n = 693)lag +7: r = -0.036 (n = 573)lag +8: r = -0.068 (n = 484)lag +9: r = -0.082 (n = 384)lag +10: r = -0.075 (n = 280)

Same year (lag 0): -0.087. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.20 at lag -6) is higher than the same-year one by 0.12. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


index, 0 to 1
% of prisoners		Years
Iceland ISL0.92342.6%2023, 2024
Norway NOR0.90922.4%2023, 2024
Denmark DNK0.90923.9%2023, 2024
Switzerland CHE0.89451.9%2023, 2024
Netherlands NLD0.89227.1%2023, 2024
Finland FIN0.89127.4%2023, 2024
Belgium BEL0.89123.6%2023, 2024
Germany DEU0.8927%2023, 2024
Sweden SWE0.88627%2023, 2024
Ireland IRL0.88619.3%2023, 2024
Slovenia SVN0.88539.8%2023, 2024
Australia AUS0.87339.9%2023, 2024
Czechia CZE0.8678.21%2023, 2024
Canada CAN0.86749.9%2023
United Arab Emirates ARE0.86638.2%2023, 2016

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025
United Nations Global SDG Indicators Database; series compiled by the International Labour Organization (8.3.1) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (16.3.2)

Sources

Inequality-adjusted HDI

Inequality-adjusted Human Development Index

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual · comparable from 2010 only

The HDI marked down for how unequally each of its three parts is spread within the country. The gap between this and the HDI is what inequality costs, and that is the number worth reading. The level itself is the HDI again, with its parts flagged the same way.

Pre-trial detainee share

Unsentenced detainees as a share of the prison population

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

Prisoners who have not been sentenced, as a share of everyone held. It measures how long justice takes, not how much crime there is. A country can imprison few people and hold most of them for years without trial. The site has no prison population rate, because the only series that compares countries is a private collection, not UN data.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2014–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Inequality-adjusted HDI and Pre-trial detainee share

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Inequality-adjusted HDI changes Pre-trial detainee share, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Inequality-adjusted HDI or Pre-trial detainee share