placestats

HDI vs. Youth not in work or study

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 169 countries, HDI and Youth not in work or study rise and fall together at r = -0.57 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.19, which could easily be chance (q = 0.27, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of hdi, 0.621 to 0.862 points, youth not in work or study is better by 10.5% of 15 to 24 year olds at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 9.67% of 15 to 24 year olds.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.570p = 5.7e-16 · 169 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.190p = 0.014 · likely range [-0.33, -0.04]
p, allowing for regions0.098standard error 0.097 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.266across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

HDI · index, 0 to 1link with income +0.96 · proxy
Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year oldslink with income -0.63 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

HDI · index, 0 to 1 →Youth not in work or study · % of 15 to 24 year olds →0.4040.9723.14%65.7%Afghanistan: 0.496 index, 0 to 1, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAngola: 0.616 index, 0 to 1, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlbania: 0.81 index, 0 to 1, 21% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Arab Emirates: 0.94 index, 0 to 1, 8.92% of 15 to 24 year oldsArgentina: 0.865 index, 0 to 1, 15.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsArmenia: 0.811 index, 0 to 1, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsAntigua and Barbuda: 0.851 index, 0 to 1, 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustralia: 0.958 index, 0 to 1, 8.53% of 15 to 24 year oldsAustria: 0.93 index, 0 to 1, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsAzerbaijan: 0.789 index, 0 to 1, 9.64% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurundi: 0.439 index, 0 to 1, 11.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelgium: 0.951 index, 0 to 1, 8.15% of 15 to 24 year oldsBenin: 0.515 index, 0 to 1, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsBurkina Faso: 0.459 index, 0 to 1, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsBangladesh: 0.685 index, 0 to 1, 15.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsBulgaria: 0.845 index, 0 to 1, 10.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.804 index, 0 to 1, 14.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelarus: 0.824 index, 0 to 1, 65.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBelize: 0.721 index, 0 to 1, 24.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsBolivia: 0.733 index, 0 to 1, 8.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrazil: 0.786 index, 0 to 1, 18.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsBarbados: 0.811 index, 0 to 1, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsBrunei Darussalam: 0.837 index, 0 to 1, 19% of 15 to 24 year oldsBhutan: 0.698 index, 0 to 1, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsBotswana: 0.731 index, 0 to 1, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsCanada: 0.939 index, 0 to 1, 13.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSwitzerland: 0.97 index, 0 to 1, 6.99% of 15 to 24 year oldsChile: 0.878 index, 0 to 1, 13.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCote d'Ivoire: 0.582 index, 0 to 1, 18.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsCameroon: 0.588 index, 0 to 1, 23.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.522 index, 0 to 1, 31.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsColombia: 0.788 index, 0 to 1, 22% of 15 to 24 year oldsComoros: 0.603 index, 0 to 1, 21.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCabo Verde: 0.668 index, 0 to 1, 28% of 15 to 24 year oldsCosta Rica: 0.833 index, 0 to 1, 19.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsCyprus: 0.913 index, 0 to 1, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsCzechia: 0.915 index, 0 to 1, 4.62% of 15 to 24 year oldsGermany: 0.959 index, 0 to 1, 7.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsDjibouti: 0.513 index, 0 to 1, 44% of 15 to 24 year oldsDenmark: 0.962 index, 0 to 1, 6.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsDominican Republic: 0.776 index, 0 to 1, 24.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsAlgeria: 0.763 index, 0 to 1, 20.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEcuador: 0.777 index, 0 to 1, 17.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.754 index, 0 to 1, 23.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSpain: 0.918 index, 0 to 1, 10.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsEstonia: 0.905 index, 0 to 1, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsEthiopia: 0.497 index, 0 to 1, 17.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsFinland: 0.948 index, 0 to 1, 8.28% of 15 to 24 year oldsFiji: 0.731 index, 0 to 1, 20.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsFrance: 0.92 index, 0 to 1, 12.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 0.615 index, 0 to 1, 28.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGabon: 0.733 index, 0 to 1, 20.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited Kingdom: 0.946 index, 0 to 1, 14.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGeorgia: 0.844 index, 0 to 1, 14.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsGhana: 0.628 index, 0 to 1, 23.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea: 0.5 index, 0 to 1, 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsGambia, The: 0.524 index, 0 to 1, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuinea-Bissau: 0.514 index, 0 to 1, 13.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsGreece: 0.908 index, 0 to 1, 10.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsGrenada: 0.791 index, 0 to 1, 20.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuatemala: 0.662 index, 0 to 1, 24% of 15 to 24 year oldsGuyana: 0.776 index, 0 to 1, 44.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsHong Kong SAR, China: 0.955 index, 0 to 1, 5.95% of 15 to 24 year oldsHonduras: 0.645 index, 0 to 1, 29% of 15 to 24 year oldsCroatia: 0.889 index, 0 to 1, 8.08% of 15 to 24 year oldsHaiti: 0.554 index, 0 to 1, 21.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsHungary: 0.87 index, 0 to 1, 9.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndonesia: 0.728 index, 0 to 1, 21.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsIndia: 0.685 index, 0 to 1, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsIreland: 0.949 index, 0 to 1, 5.67% of 15 to 24 year oldsIran, Islamic Rep.: 0.799 index, 0 to 1, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsIraq: 0.695 index, 0 to 1, 36.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsIceland: 0.972 index, 0 to 1, 3.98% of 15 to 24 year oldsIsrael: 0.919 index, 0 to 1, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsItaly: 0.915 index, 0 to 1, 12% of 15 to 24 year oldsJamaica: 0.72 index, 0 to 1, 19.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsJordan: 0.754 index, 0 to 1, 29.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsJapan: 0.925 index, 0 to 1, 3.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsKazakhstan: 0.837 index, 0 to 1, 9.49% of 15 to 24 year oldsKenya: 0.628 index, 0 to 1, 18.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsKyrgyz Republic: 0.72 index, 0 to 1, 19.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsCambodia: 0.606 index, 0 to 1, 6.32% of 15 to 24 year oldsKiribati: 0.644 index, 0 to 1, 35.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsLao PDR: 0.617 index, 0 to 1, 22.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLebanon: 0.752 index, 0 to 1, 23.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsLiberia: 0.51 index, 0 to 1, 39.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsSt. Lucia: 0.748 index, 0 to 1, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSri Lanka: 0.776 index, 0 to 1, 17.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLesotho: 0.55 index, 0 to 1, 38% of 15 to 24 year oldsLithuania: 0.895 index, 0 to 1, 14.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsLuxembourg: 0.922 index, 0 to 1, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsLatvia: 0.889 index, 0 to 1, 9.89% of 15 to 24 year oldsMorocco: 0.71 index, 0 to 1, 35.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMoldova: 0.785 index, 0 to 1, 9.05% of 15 to 24 year oldsMadagascar: 0.487 index, 0 to 1, 24.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMaldives: 0.766 index, 0 to 1, 26.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsMexico: 0.789 index, 0 to 1, 16.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMarshall Islands: 0.733 index, 0 to 1, 40% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorth Macedonia: 0.815 index, 0 to 1, 19.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsMali: 0.419 index, 0 to 1, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalta: 0.924 index, 0 to 1, 7.84% of 15 to 24 year oldsMyanmar: 0.609 index, 0 to 1, 15% of 15 to 24 year oldsMontenegro: 0.862 index, 0 to 1, 14.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMongolia: 0.747 index, 0 to 1, 9.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMozambique: 0.493 index, 0 to 1, 19.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritania: 0.563 index, 0 to 1, 44.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsMauritius: 0.806 index, 0 to 1, 13.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalawi: 0.517 index, 0 to 1, 39.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsMalaysia: 0.819 index, 0 to 1, 10.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsNamibia: 0.665 index, 0 to 1, 31.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNiger: 0.419 index, 0 to 1, 15.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsNigeria: 0.56 index, 0 to 1, 11.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsNicaragua: 0.706 index, 0 to 1, 24.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsNetherlands: 0.955 index, 0 to 1, 4.14% of 15 to 24 year oldsNorway: 0.97 index, 0 to 1, 5.82% of 15 to 24 year oldsNepal: 0.622 index, 0 to 1, 34.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsNaoero: 0.703 index, 0 to 1, 50.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsNew Zealand: 0.938 index, 0 to 1, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsOman: 0.858 index, 0 to 1, 25.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPakistan: 0.544 index, 0 to 1, 28.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsPanama: 0.839 index, 0 to 1, 15.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPeru: 0.794 index, 0 to 1, 22.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsPhilippines: 0.72 index, 0 to 1, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsPalau: 0.786 index, 0 to 1, 11.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsPapua New Guinea: 0.576 index, 0 to 1, 27.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsPoland: 0.906 index, 0 to 1, 10.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsPortugal: 0.89 index, 0 to 1, 7.02% of 15 to 24 year oldsParaguay: 0.756 index, 0 to 1, 18.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsWest Bank and Gaza: 0.674 index, 0 to 1, 25.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsRomania: 0.845 index, 0 to 1, 17% of 15 to 24 year oldsRussian Federation: 0.832 index, 0 to 1, 6.68% of 15 to 24 year oldsRwanda: 0.578 index, 0 to 1, 15.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSaudi Arabia: 0.9 index, 0 to 1, 16.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsSudan: 0.511 index, 0 to 1, 46.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSenegal: 0.53 index, 0 to 1, 35.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSingapore: 0.946 index, 0 to 1, 6.46% of 15 to 24 year oldsSolomon Islands: 0.584 index, 0 to 1, 7.04% of 15 to 24 year oldsSierra Leone: 0.467 index, 0 to 1, 25.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsEl Salvador: 0.678 index, 0 to 1, 20.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.404 index, 0 to 1, 51% of 15 to 24 year oldsSerbia: 0.833 index, 0 to 1, 12.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsSao Tome and Principe: 0.637 index, 0 to 1, 43.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsSuriname: 0.722 index, 0 to 1, 18.2% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovak Republic: 0.88 index, 0 to 1, 8.75% of 15 to 24 year oldsSlovenia: 0.931 index, 0 to 1, 7.13% of 15 to 24 year oldsSweden: 0.959 index, 0 to 1, 5.58% of 15 to 24 year oldsEswatini: 0.695 index, 0 to 1, 36.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsSeychelles: 0.848 index, 0 to 1, 16.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsChad: 0.416 index, 0 to 1, 42.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTogo: 0.571 index, 0 to 1, 13% of 15 to 24 year oldsThailand: 0.798 index, 0 to 1, 12.4% of 15 to 24 year oldsTajikistan: 0.691 index, 0 to 1, 41.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTimor-Leste: 0.634 index, 0 to 1, 29.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsTonga: 0.769 index, 0 to 1, 25.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTrinidad and Tobago: 0.807 index, 0 to 1, 15.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsTunisia: 0.746 index, 0 to 1, 22.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsTurkiye: 0.853 index, 0 to 1, 22.9% of 15 to 24 year oldsTuvalu: 0.689 index, 0 to 1, 34.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsTanzania: 0.555 index, 0 to 1, 12.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUganda: 0.582 index, 0 to 1, 13.8% of 15 to 24 year oldsUkraine: 0.779 index, 0 to 1, 16.5% of 15 to 24 year oldsUruguay: 0.862 index, 0 to 1, 14% of 15 to 24 year oldsUnited States: 0.938 index, 0 to 1, 11.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsViet Nam: 0.766 index, 0 to 1, 10.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsVanuatu: 0.621 index, 0 to 1, 29.3% of 15 to 24 year oldsSamoa: 0.708 index, 0 to 1, 30.1% of 15 to 24 year oldsSouth Africa: 0.741 index, 0 to 1, 34.6% of 15 to 24 year oldsZambia: 0.595 index, 0 to 1, 26.7% of 15 to 24 year oldsZimbabwe: 0.598 index, 0 to 1, 36% of 15 to 24 year oldsBDIBLRGUYISLNERNLDNORNRUSDNSLBSOMTCD

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5705.7e-16169
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.6481.6e-21169
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1900.014169
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2180.005169

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 169 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.381 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.212 (without NGA) to -0.114 (without GUY). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GUY (+0.076).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific28+0.04
Europe & Central Asia46-0.20
Latin America & Caribbean27-0.65
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17-0.54
Sub-Saharan Africa43-0.04

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third57-0.01
Middle third56-0.20
Richest third56-0.54

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians103-0.27
Muslims42-0.05

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France22-0.53
Never a European colony17+0.36
Spain19-0.23
United Kingdom55-0.25

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.194 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 34years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link also shows up within countries over time (r = -0.174). It holds even when looking only at changes from one year to the next (r = -0.079). This is the strongest kind of evidence available here: it holds when each country is compared only with itself, and it is not just a product of shared trends.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.190for comparison
Within countries-0.329each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.174q = 0.018 · 120 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.079q = 0.005
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

2,115 country-years (one country in one year), 120 countries, 1990–2023, about 18 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 8% for HDI, 20% for Youth not in work or study. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Youth not in work or study trails HDI →lag -10: r = -0.000 (n = 1,096)lag -9: r = -0.012 (n = 1,185)lag -8: r = -0.009 (n = 1,276)lag -7: r = -0.065 (n = 1,383)lag -6: r = -0.097 (n = 1,483)lag -5: r = -0.130 (n = 1,569)lag -4: r = -0.149 (n = 1,677)lag -3: r = -0.162 (n = 1,787)lag -2: r = -0.182 (n = 1,889)lag -1: r = -0.177 (n = 2,010)lag +0: r = -0.174 (n = 2,115)lag +1: r = -0.159 (n = 2,189)lag +2: r = -0.155 (n = 2,203)lag +3: r = -0.145 (n = 2,185)lag +4: r = -0.143 (n = 2,169)lag +5: r = -0.126 (n = 2,144)lag +6: r = -0.108 (n = 2,123)lag +7: r = -0.091 (n = 2,095)lag +8: r = -0.072 (n = 2,062)lag +9: r = -0.047 (n = 2,031)lag +10: r = -0.027 (n = 1,990)

Same year (lag 0): -0.174. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


index, 0 to 1
% of 15 to 24 year olds		Years
Iceland ISL0.9723.98%2023, 2024
Norway NOR0.975.82%2023, 2024
Switzerland CHE0.976.99%2023, 2025
Denmark DNK0.9626.9%2023, 2024
Sweden SWE0.9595.58%2023, 2024
Germany DEU0.9597.58%2023, 2024
Australia AUS0.9588.53%2023, 2024
Netherlands NLD0.9554.14%2023, 2024
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG0.9555.95%2023, 2025
Belgium BEL0.9518.15%2023, 2024
Ireland IRL0.9495.67%2023, 2024
Finland FIN0.9488.28%2023, 2024
Singapore SGP0.9466.46%2023, 2025
United Kingdom GBR0.94614.4%2023, 2025
United Arab Emirates ARE0.948.92%2023

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

HDI

Human Development Index

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

The geometric mean (a kind of average that multiplies the parts together) of three parts: income per person (GNI per capita), life expectancy, and schooling (expected years and average years). All four inputs are on this site, and each is flagged. So a link between the HDI and any of them is shown for what it is: the index matching a part of itself. For the same reason it is kept out of this site's own topic scores. Those already contain its parts, and adding it would count each twice. It is the most-cited development index there is. It is here mostly so its parts can be read separately.

Youth not in work or study

Share of youth not in education, employment or training, total (% of youth population)

International Labour Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

From labour force surveys, so yearly for about a hundred countries and occasional elsewhere.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore HDI and Youth not in work or study

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that HDI changes Youth not in work or study, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with HDI or Youth not in work or study