placestats

Government expense vs. Tax revenue

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 149 countries, Government expense and Tax revenue rise and fall together at r = +0.55 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.50, q = 0.0099, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of tax revenue, 12.2% to 21.8% of GDP, government expense is 10.9% of GDP higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 10% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.550p = 3.6e-13 · 149 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.503p = 7.1e-11 · likely range [+0.37, +0.61]
p, allowing for regions0.054standard error 0.211 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.010across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Government expense · % of GDPlink with income +0.44 · moderate
Tax revenue · % of GDPlink with income +0.33 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Government expense · % of GDP →Tax revenue · % of GDP →3.77%104%0.648%35.4%Afghanistan: 39.2% of GDP, 9.9% of GDPAngola: 14.6% of GDP, 7.59% of GDPAlbania: 25.4% of GDP, 18% of GDPUnited Arab Emirates: 3.77% of GDP, 0.648% of GDPArgentina: 21% of GDP, 10.4% of GDPArmenia: 20.9% of GDP, 22.4% of GDPAustralia: 27.6% of GDP, 23.6% of GDPAustria: 46% of GDP, 25.8% of GDPAzerbaijan: 23% of GDP, 17.3% of GDPBurundi: 12.3% of GDP, 12.7% of GDPBelgium: 39.7% of GDP, 23% of GDPBurkina Faso: 19.6% of GDP, 18.7% of GDPBangladesh: 8.32% of GDP, 7.64% of GDPBulgaria: 35.8% of GDP, 20.7% of GDPBahrain: 26.1% of GDP, 2.82% of GDPBahamas, The: 20.3% of GDP, 17.3% of GDPBosnia and Herzegovina: 35.3% of GDP, 20.2% of GDPBelarus: 28.5% of GDP, 13% of GDPBelize: 22.3% of GDP, 21.3% of GDPBrazil: 32.4% of GDP, 15.4% of GDPBarbados: 28.8% of GDP, 23.4% of GDPBhutan: 24.1% of GDP, 12.3% of GDPBotswana: 26.5% of GDP, 22.4% of GDPCentral African Republic: 11.7% of GDP, 8.21% of GDPCanada: 19.1% of GDP, 13.7% of GDPSwitzerland: 16.1% of GDP, 9.45% of GDPChile: 24.6% of GDP, 18.3% of GDPCote d'Ivoire: 17.9% of GDP, 13% of GDPCameroon: 12.4% of GDP, 11.3% of GDPCongo, Dem. Rep.: 12.4% of GDP, 10.7% of GDPCongo, Rep.: 16.1% of GDP, 6.51% of GDPColombia: 33.3% of GDP, 15.2% of GDPCabo Verde: 30.9% of GDP, 18.4% of GDPCosta Rica: 28.6% of GDP, 13.5% of GDPCyprus: 38.5% of GDP, 23.9% of GDPCzechia: 34.4% of GDP, 18.6% of GDPGermany: 31.2% of GDP, 10.9% of GDPDenmark: 33.3% of GDP, 33.4% of GDPDominican Republic: 18.1% of GDP, 14.7% of GDPEcuador: 30.4% of GDP, 13.1% of GDPEgypt, Arab Rep.: 30.2% of GDP, 12.5% of GDPSpain: 34% of GDP, 14.9% of GDPEstonia: 37.7% of GDP, 22.7% of GDPEthiopia: 6.12% of GDP, 3.4% of GDPFinland: 44.9% of GDP, 25.3% of GDPFiji: 27.8% of GDP, 23.9% of GDPFrance: 47.3% of GDP, 22.8% of GDPMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 23.4% of GDP, 7.03% of GDPGabon: 14.1% of GDP, 9.49% of GDPUnited Kingdom: 41.2% of GDP, 26.9% of GDPGeorgia: 25.2% of GDP, 24.3% of GDPGhana: 22.7% of GDP, 12.4% of GDPGuinea-Bissau: 15.5% of GDP, 8.3% of GDPEquatorial Guinea: 11% of GDP, 6.6% of GDPGreece: 47.3% of GDP, 27.4% of GDPGuatemala: 13.5% of GDP, 11.6% of GDPHonduras: 24.4% of GDP, 15.1% of GDPCroatia: 38.1% of GDP, 21.2% of GDPHungary: 42.4% of GDP, 22.7% of GDPIndia: 13.7% of GDP, 6.93% of GDPIreland: 19.2% of GDP, 17.9% of GDPIraq: 27.6% of GDP, 1.34% of GDPIceland: 32% of GDP, 23.2% of GDPIsrael: 37.3% of GDP, 23.2% of GDPItaly: 47.3% of GDP, 25.6% of GDPJamaica: 27.5% of GDP, 23.7% of GDPJordan: 25.9% of GDP, 15.5% of GDPKazakhstan: 17.4% of GDP, 11.9% of GDPKenya: 27.8% of GDP, 14.1% of GDPKyrgyz Republic: 23.7% of GDP, 19.6% of GDPCambodia: 12.9% of GDP, 12.2% of GDPKiribati: 83.7% of GDP, 17.5% of GDPSt. Kitts and Nevis: 26.7% of GDP, 15% of GDPKorea, Rep.: 28.3% of GDP, 13.3% of GDPLao PDR: 10.3% of GDP, 12.1% of GDPLebanon: 6.3% of GDP, 11.1% of GDPSt. Lucia: 17.6% of GDP, 18.2% of GDPSri Lanka: 18% of GDP, 9.88% of GDPLesotho: 40.2% of GDP, 35.4% of GDPLithuania: 33.9% of GDP, 21.9% of GDPLuxembourg: 42.2% of GDP, 28.6% of GDPLatvia: 34.2% of GDP, 17.6% of GDPMacao SAR, China: 19.6% of GDP, 27.4% of GDPMorocco: 26.6% of GDP, 20.7% of GDPMoldova: 34.5% of GDP, 18.6% of GDPMadagascar: 11% of GDP, 10.9% of GDPMaldives: 29.5% of GDP, 19.5% of GDPMexico: 22.5% of GDP, 14.8% of GDPMarshall Islands: 59.4% of GDP, 17.2% of GDPNorth Macedonia: 33.4% of GDP, 18.8% of GDPMali: 12.2% of GDP, 12% of GDPMalta: 33.7% of GDP, 24.1% of GDPMyanmar: 13.8% of GDP, 6.02% of GDPMongolia: 31.7% of GDP, 16.9% of GDPMozambique: 26% of GDP, 21.8% of GDPMauritius: 29.1% of GDP, 20.5% of GDPMalawi: 20.2% of GDP, 15.6% of GDPMalaysia: 17% of GDP, 12.4% of GDPNamibia: 36.2% of GDP, 33.9% of GDPNicaragua: 16.3% of GDP, 20.1% of GDPNetherlands: 40% of GDP, 25.3% of GDPNorway: 34.5% of GDP, 24.5% of GDPNepal: 19.4% of GDP, 13.9% of GDPNaoero: 104% of GDP, 21.4% of GDPNew Zealand: 35.5% of GDP, 29.5% of GDPPanama: 17.1% of GDP, 7.18% of GDPPeru: 22.8% of GDP, 15.9% of GDPPhilippines: 16.9% of GDP, 14.4% of GDPPalau: 59% of GDP, 18.1% of GDPPapua New Guinea: 20.3% of GDP, 15.5% of GDPPoland: 39.1% of GDP, 18% of GDPPortugal: 37.2% of GDP, 22.3% of GDPParaguay: 18.9% of GDP, 11.3% of GDPRomania: 37.3% of GDP, 16.2% of GDPRussian Federation: 30% of GDP, 10.9% of GDPRwanda: 18% of GDP, 13.1% of GDPSaudi Arabia: 24.2% of GDP, 8.09% of GDPSudan: 9.73% of GDP, 7.39% of GDPSenegal: 23.6% of GDP, 19.5% of GDPSingapore: 17.1% of GDP, 13.6% of GDPSolomon Islands: 28.9% of GDP, 23.3% of GDPEl Salvador: 27.9% of GDP, 21.8% of GDPSan Marino: 40.5% of GDP, 17.3% of GDPSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 6.35% of GDP, 2.24% of GDPSerbia: 35.5% of GDP, 23.9% of GDPSlovak Republic: 39.8% of GDP, 19.1% of GDPSlovenia: 42.9% of GDP, 21% of GDPSweden: 32.5% of GDP, 27.2% of GDPEswatini: 24.6% of GDP, 24.3% of GDPTogo: 16% of GDP, 13.9% of GDPThailand: 20.7% of GDP, 15.2% of GDPTajikistan: 11% of GDP, 10.7% of GDPTimor-Leste: 52.5% of GDP, 21.6% of GDPTonga: 34.7% of GDP, 20.5% of GDPTrinidad and Tobago: 33.3% of GDP, 16.8% of GDPTunisia: 33.8% of GDP, 20.1% of GDPTurkiye: 33% of GDP, 17.6% of GDPTanzania: 16.3% of GDP, 12.7% of GDPUganda: 16.6% of GDP, 12.6% of GDPUkraine: 65.6% of GDP, 21% of GDPUruguay: 36.5% of GDP, 17.9% of GDPUnited States: 24.4% of GDP, 10.8% of GDPUzbekistan: 22.3% of GDP, 11% of GDPSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 24.7% of GDP, 23.8% of GDPVanuatu: 26.6% of GDP, 16.5% of GDPSamoa: 26.7% of GDP, 24% of GDPSouth Africa: 33.4% of GDP, 25.9% of GDPZambia: 25.1% of GDP, 18.8% of GDPZimbabwe: 11% of GDP, 7.21% of GDPAREDNKETHIRQKIRLSOMACNAMNRUSOM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.5503.6e-13149
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.6846.6e-22149
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.5037.1e-11149
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.6317.8e-18149

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 149 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.047 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.481 (without ARE) to +0.539 (without NRU). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: NRU (+0.036).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific24+0.37
Europe & Central Asia47+0.49
Latin America & Caribbean24+0.34
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan12+0.51
Sub-Saharan Africa34+0.92

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third50+0.55
Middle third49+0.32
Richest third50+0.72

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians98+0.54
Muslims28+0.52

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France14+0.74
Never a European colony15+0.30
Spain19+0.46
United Kingdom49+0.45

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.616 after dropping 4 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = +0.939) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = +0.149). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.503for comparison
Within countries+0.936each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.939q = 0.000 · 154 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.149q = 0.169
Read with care.
  • The association is much weaker in year-on-year changes than in levels, which points to shared country-specific trends.

3,613 country-years (one country in one year), 154 countries, 1990–2024, about 24 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 69% for Government expense, 57% for Tax revenue. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

1.00−1.0-100+10years Tax revenue trails Government expense →lag -10: r = 0.098 (n = 2,040)lag -9: r = 0.108 (n = 2,168)lag -8: r = 0.103 (n = 2,316)lag -7: r = 0.121 (n = 2,464)lag -6: r = 0.152 (n = 2,599)lag -5: r = 0.200 (n = 2,759)lag -4: r = 0.238 (n = 2,908)lag -3: r = 0.257 (n = 3,067)lag -2: r = 0.262 (n = 3,234)lag -1: r = 0.904 (n = 3,421)lag +0: r = 0.939 (n = 3,613)lag +1: r = 0.893 (n = 3,502)lag +2: r = 0.198 (n = 3,331)lag +3: r = 0.190 (n = 3,163)lag +4: r = 0.144 (n = 2,999)lag +5: r = 0.154 (n = 2,843)lag +6: r = 0.143 (n = 2,672)lag +7: r = 0.126 (n = 2,513)lag +8: r = 0.098 (n = 2,357)lag +9: r = 0.065 (n = 2,210)lag +10: r = 0.026 (n = 2,071)

Same year (lag 0): +0.939. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of GDP
% of GDP		Years
Naoero NRU104%21.4%2020, 2024
Kiribati KIR83.7%17.5%2023
Ukraine UKR65.6%21%2023, 2024
Marshall Islands MHL59.4%17.2%2020
Palau PLW59%18.1%2020
Timor-Leste TLS52.5%21.6%2022
Greece GRC47.3%27.4%2023, 2024
Italy ITA47.3%25.6%2023, 2024
France FRA47.3%22.8%2023, 2024
Austria AUT46%25.8%2023, 2024
Finland FIN44.9%25.3%2023, 2024
Slovenia SVN42.9%21%2023, 2024
Hungary HUN42.4%22.7%2022, 2024
Luxembourg LUX42.2%28.6%2023, 2024
United Kingdom GBR41.2%26.9%2023, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Government expense

Government expense (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Total central government spending, as a share of GDP: buying, payments to people, subsidies and interest together. From the IMF's Government Finance Statistics. It is the fuller measure of government size, but it covers fewer countries. It counts central government only, so a country with large state and local budgets looks low. About forty fewer countries report it than report government consumption. No "better" direction is set.

Tax revenue

Tax revenue (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Government expense and Tax revenue

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Government expense changes Tax revenue, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Government expense or Tax revenue