placestats

Government expense vs. Pre-trial detainee share

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 135 countries, Government expense and Pre-trial detainee share rise and fall together at r = -0.32 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.29, q = 0.016, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of pre-trial detainee share, 19.8% to 42.4% of prisoners, government expense is 5.64% of GDP lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 5.08% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.324p = 0.000 · 135 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.294p = 0.001 · likely range [-0.44, -0.13]
p, allowing for regions0.058standard error 0.126 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.016across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Government expense · % of GDPlink with income +0.44 · moderate
Pre-trial detainee share · % of prisonerslink with income -0.27 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Government expense · % of GDP →Pre-trial detainee share · % of prisoners →3.77%104%3.16%75.6%Afghanistan: 39.2% of GDP, 31.3% of prisonersAngola: 14.6% of GDP, 48.5% of prisonersAlbania: 25.4% of GDP, 62% of prisonersUnited Arab Emirates: 3.77% of GDP, 38.2% of prisonersArgentina: 21% of GDP, 38.8% of prisonersArmenia: 20.9% of GDP, 52.2% of prisonersAustralia: 27.6% of GDP, 39.9% of prisonersAustria: 46% of GDP, 19.6% of prisonersAzerbaijan: 23% of GDP, 20.7% of prisonersBurundi: 12.3% of GDP, 53.1% of prisonersBelgium: 39.7% of GDP, 23.6% of prisonersBurkina Faso: 19.6% of GDP, 29% of prisonersBangladesh: 8.32% of GDP, 75.6% of prisonersBulgaria: 35.8% of GDP, 8.79% of prisonersBahrain: 26.1% of GDP, 13.8% of prisonersBahamas, The: 20.3% of GDP, 32.7% of prisonersBosnia and Herzegovina: 35.3% of GDP, 36.6% of prisonersBelarus: 28.5% of GDP, 9.17% of prisonersBelize: 22.3% of GDP, 34.7% of prisonersBrazil: 32.4% of GDP, 27.3% of prisonersBarbados: 28.8% of GDP, 57.9% of prisonersBhutan: 24.1% of GDP, 14.2% of prisonersBotswana: 26.5% of GDP, 22.5% of prisonersCanada: 19.1% of GDP, 49.9% of prisonersSwitzerland: 16.1% of GDP, 51.9% of prisonersChile: 24.6% of GDP, 36.5% of prisonersCote d'Ivoire: 17.9% of GDP, 33.7% of prisonersCameroon: 12.4% of GDP, 55.5% of prisonersCongo, Dem. Rep.: 12.4% of GDP, 70% of prisonersColombia: 33.3% of GDP, 21.6% of prisonersCabo Verde: 30.9% of GDP, 31.3% of prisonersCosta Rica: 28.6% of GDP, 23.7% of prisonersCyprus: 38.5% of GDP, 24.4% of prisonersCzechia: 34.4% of GDP, 8.21% of prisonersGermany: 31.2% of GDP, 27% of prisonersDenmark: 33.3% of GDP, 23.9% of prisonersDominican Republic: 18.1% of GDP, 62% of prisonersEcuador: 30.4% of GDP, 34.6% of prisonersEgypt, Arab Rep.: 30.2% of GDP, 9.9% of prisonersSpain: 34% of GDP, 17.7% of prisonersEstonia: 37.7% of GDP, 20.2% of prisonersFinland: 44.9% of GDP, 27.4% of prisonersFiji: 27.8% of GDP, 19.9% of prisonersFrance: 47.3% of GDP, 25.8% of prisonersGabon: 14.1% of GDP, 70% of prisonersGeorgia: 25.2% of GDP, 19.3% of prisonersGhana: 22.7% of GDP, 10.5% of prisonersGuinea-Bissau: 15.5% of GDP, 55.5% of prisonersGreece: 47.3% of GDP, 25.5% of prisonersGuatemala: 13.5% of GDP, 28.3% of prisonersHonduras: 24.4% of GDP, 49.2% of prisonersCroatia: 38.1% of GDP, 42.4% of prisonersHungary: 42.4% of GDP, 20.7% of prisonersIndia: 13.7% of GDP, 73.5% of prisonersIreland: 19.2% of GDP, 19.3% of prisonersIceland: 32% of GDP, 42.6% of prisonersIsrael: 37.3% of GDP, 25.8% of prisonersItaly: 47.3% of GDP, 16.9% of prisonersJamaica: 27.5% of GDP, 39.2% of prisonersJordan: 25.9% of GDP, 36.9% of prisonersJapan: 20.1% of GDP, 15.5% of prisonersKazakhstan: 17.4% of GDP, 20.3% of prisonersKenya: 27.8% of GDP, 41% of prisonersKyrgyz Republic: 23.7% of GDP, 25.6% of prisonersCambodia: 12.9% of GDP, 26.6% of prisonersKiribati: 83.7% of GDP, 5.4% of prisonersSt. Kitts and Nevis: 26.7% of GDP, 60.6% of prisonersKorea, Rep.: 28.3% of GDP, 35% of prisonersLebanon: 6.3% of GDP, 43.4% of prisonersSt. Lucia: 17.6% of GDP, 62.1% of prisonersSri Lanka: 18% of GDP, 66.2% of prisonersLesotho: 40.2% of GDP, 19.5% of prisonersLithuania: 33.9% of GDP, 13% of prisonersLuxembourg: 42.2% of GDP, 48.3% of prisonersLatvia: 34.2% of GDP, 28.6% of prisonersMacao SAR, China: 19.6% of GDP, 17.6% of prisonersMorocco: 26.6% of GDP, 10.5% of prisonersMoldova: 34.5% of GDP, 17% of prisonersMadagascar: 11% of GDP, 39.3% of prisonersMexico: 22.5% of GDP, 36.3% of prisonersNorth Macedonia: 33.4% of GDP, 14% of prisonersMalta: 33.7% of GDP, 38.2% of prisonersMyanmar: 13.8% of GDP, 22% of prisonersMongolia: 31.7% of GDP, 18.9% of prisonersMozambique: 26% of GDP, 27.9% of prisonersMauritius: 29.1% of GDP, 46.1% of prisonersMalawi: 20.2% of GDP, 17.6% of prisonersMalaysia: 17% of GDP, 32.6% of prisonersNamibia: 36.2% of GDP, 3.16% of prisonersNicaragua: 16.3% of GDP, 14.3% of prisonersNetherlands: 40% of GDP, 27.1% of prisonersNorway: 34.5% of GDP, 22.4% of prisonersNepal: 19.4% of GDP, 53% of prisonersNaoero: 104% of GDP, 34.2% of prisonersNew Zealand: 35.5% of GDP, 42.3% of prisonersPanama: 17.1% of GDP, 35.2% of prisonersPeru: 22.8% of GDP, 38% of prisonersPhilippines: 16.9% of GDP, 65.2% of prisonersPapua New Guinea: 20.3% of GDP, 42.9% of prisonersPoland: 39.1% of GDP, 10.9% of prisonersPortugal: 37.2% of GDP, 21.7% of prisonersParaguay: 18.9% of GDP, 63.9% of prisonersWest Bank and Gaza: 26.2% of GDP, 47.7% of prisonersRomania: 37.3% of GDP, 9.22% of prisonersRussian Federation: 30% of GDP, 15.4% of prisonersRwanda: 18% of GDP, 9.01% of prisonersSaudi Arabia: 24.2% of GDP, 20% of prisonersSudan: 9.73% of GDP, 20.4% of prisonersSenegal: 23.6% of GDP, 48% of prisonersSingapore: 17.1% of GDP, 13.1% of prisonersSolomon Islands: 28.9% of GDP, 32.7% of prisonersEl Salvador: 27.9% of GDP, 26% of prisonersSerbia: 35.5% of GDP, 21.5% of prisonersSlovak Republic: 39.8% of GDP, 13% of prisonersSlovenia: 42.9% of GDP, 39.8% of prisonersSweden: 32.5% of GDP, 27% of prisonersEswatini: 24.6% of GDP, 24.5% of prisonersTogo: 16% of GDP, 60% of prisonersThailand: 20.7% of GDP, 8.94% of prisonersTimor-Leste: 52.5% of GDP, 23.8% of prisonersTonga: 34.7% of GDP, 33% of prisonersTrinidad and Tobago: 33.3% of GDP, 62.3% of prisonersTunisia: 33.8% of GDP, 54.9% of prisonersTurkiye: 33% of GDP, 14.4% of prisonersTanzania: 16.3% of GDP, 31.4% of prisonersUganda: 16.6% of GDP, 47.2% of prisonersUkraine: 65.6% of GDP, 34.9% of prisonersUruguay: 36.5% of GDP, 6.29% of prisonersUnited States: 24.4% of GDP, 26.7% of prisonersSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 24.7% of GDP, 69.9% of prisonersVanuatu: 26.6% of GDP, 32.3% of prisonersSamoa: 26.7% of GDP, 23.2% of prisonersSouth Africa: 33.4% of GDP, 38% of prisonersZambia: 25.1% of GDP, 18.1% of prisonersZimbabwe: 11% of GDP, 23.5% of prisonersBGDCODINDKIRNRURWASDNSGPUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3240.000135
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.3582.1e-5135
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2940.001135
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3130.000135

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 135 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.030 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.348 (without NRU) to -0.252 (without KIR). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: NRU (-0.053).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific21-0.15
Europe & Central Asia43-0.10
Latin America & Caribbean24-0.23
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan12-0.24
Sub-Saharan Africa28-0.47

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third45-0.46
Middle third45-0.21
Richest third45-0.10

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians92-0.44
Muslims23-0.27

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Never a European colony13-0.30
Spain17-0.52
United Kingdom46-0.23

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.337 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 21years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.034, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose government expense moved did not tend to see their pre-trial detainee share move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.294for comparison
Within countries-0.049each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.034q = 0.656 · 110 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.012q = 0.845

1,604 country-years (one country in one year), 110 countries, 2003–2023, about 15 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 21% for Government expense, 11% for Pre-trial detainee share. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Pre-trial detainee share trails Government expense →lag -10: r = 0.101 (n = 723)lag -9: r = 0.026 (n = 824)lag -8: r = -0.021 (n = 924)lag -7: r = -0.000 (n = 1,025)lag -6: r = 0.033 (n = 1,146)lag -5: r = 0.028 (n = 1,247)lag -4: r = 0.041 (n = 1,324)lag -3: r = 0.067 (n = 1,394)lag -2: r = 0.041 (n = 1,465)lag -1: r = 0.014 (n = 1,540)lag +0: r = -0.034 (n = 1,604)lag +1: r = -0.065 (n = 1,682)lag +2: r = -0.065 (n = 1,682)lag +3: r = -0.069 (n = 1,679)lag +4: r = -0.056 (n = 1,660)lag +5: r = -0.054 (n = 1,635)lag +6: r = -0.028 (n = 1,606)lag +7: r = -0.003 (n = 1,588)lag +8: r = 0.011 (n = 1,563)lag +9: r = -0.006 (n = 1,531)lag +10: r = 0.011 (n = 1,507)

Same year (lag 0): -0.034. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of GDP
% of prisoners		Years
Naoero NRU104%34.2%2020, 2023
Kiribati KIR83.7%5.4%2023, 2016
Ukraine UKR65.6%34.9%2023, 2024
Timor-Leste TLS52.5%23.8%2022, 2017
Greece GRC47.3%25.5%2023, 2024
Italy ITA47.3%16.9%2023, 2024
France FRA47.3%25.8%2023, 2024
Austria AUT46%19.6%2023, 2024
Finland FIN44.9%27.4%2023, 2024
Slovenia SVN42.9%39.8%2023, 2024
Hungary HUN42.4%20.7%2022, 2024
Luxembourg LUX42.2%48.3%2023, 2024
Lesotho LSO40.2%19.5%2022, 2016
Netherlands NLD40%27.1%2023, 2024
Slovak Republic SVK39.8%13%2022, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
United Nations Global SDG Indicators Database; series compiled by the International Labour Organization (8.3.1) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (16.3.2)

Sources

Government expense

Government expense (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Total central government spending, as a share of GDP: buying, payments to people, subsidies and interest together. From the IMF's Government Finance Statistics. It is the fuller measure of government size, but it covers fewer countries. It counts central government only, so a country with large state and local budgets looks low. About forty fewer countries report it than report government consumption. No "better" direction is set.

Pre-trial detainee share

Unsentenced detainees as a share of the prison population

United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

Prisoners who have not been sentenced, as a share of everyone held. It measures how long justice takes, not how much crime there is. A country can imprison few people and hold most of them for years without trial. The site has no prison population rate, because the only series that compares countries is a private collection, not UN data.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Government expense and Pre-trial detainee share

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Government expense changes Pre-trial detainee share, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Government expense or Pre-trial detainee share