placestats

Government consumption vs. Median age

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 178 countries, Government consumption and Median age rise and fall together at r = +0.17 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.13, q = 0.035, allowing for the many pairs tested).

Comparing countries across the middle half of median age, 21 to 39 years, government consumption is 2.71% of GDP higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 4.04% of GDP.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.167p = 0.026 · 178 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.126p = 0.094 · likely range [-0.02, +0.27]
p, allowing for regions0.079standard error 0.060 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.035across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Government consumption · % of GDPlink with income +0.28 · independent
Median age · yearslink with income +0.86 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Government consumption · % of GDP →Median age · years →2.56%60.6%14.349Aruba: 17.9% of GDP, 41 yearsAfghanistan: 23.6% of GDP, 16.9 yearsAngola: 15.8% of GDP, 16.5 yearsAlbania: 12.8% of GDP, 36.3 yearsUnited Arab Emirates: 12.2% of GDP, 31.2 yearsArgentina: 14.9% of GDP, 32.1 yearsArmenia: 10.2% of GDP, 35.8 yearsAustralia: 23.1% of GDP, 37.8 yearsAustria: 21.9% of GDP, 43.1 yearsAzerbaijan: 15.5% of GDP, 32.6 yearsBurundi: 20.6% of GDP, 15.9 yearsBelgium: 24% of GDP, 41.4 yearsBenin: 8.87% of GDP, 17.8 yearsBurkina Faso: 17.8% of GDP, 17.3 yearsBangladesh: 5.8% of GDP, 25.3 yearsBulgaria: 20.8% of GDP, 44.3 yearsBahrain: 14.1% of GDP, 32.9 yearsBahamas, The: 12.9% of GDP, 34.6 yearsBosnia and Herzegovina: 20.3% of GDP, 44.9 yearsBelarus: 18.9% of GDP, 40.5 yearsBelize: 15.9% of GDP, 25.9 yearsBermuda: 10.7% of GDP, 45.1 yearsBolivia: 16.5% of GDP, 24.7 yearsBrazil: 19.1% of GDP, 33.9 yearsBrunei Darussalam: 23.8% of GDP, 31.8 yearsBhutan: 20% of GDP, 29.4 yearsBotswana: 31.5% of GDP, 22.9 yearsCentral African Republic: 10.3% of GDP, 14.3 yearsCanada: 21.9% of GDP, 40.3 yearsSwitzerland: 12% of GDP, 42.3 yearsChile: 15.1% of GDP, 36 yearsChina: 16.7% of GDP, 39.1 yearsCote d'Ivoire: 8.71% of GDP, 18.1 yearsCameroon: 11.1% of GDP, 17.8 yearsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 15.9% of GDP, 15.8 yearsCongo, Rep.: 14.9% of GDP, 18.3 yearsColombia: 15.5% of GDP, 31.6 yearsComoros: 9.01% of GDP, 20.3 yearsCabo Verde: 22.9% of GDP, 27.9 yearsCosta Rica: 14% of GDP, 34.1 yearsCuracao: 14.5% of GDP, 38.2 yearsCayman Islands: 2.56% of GDP, 37.9 yearsCyprus: 18.5% of GDP, 37.8 yearsCzechia: 20% of GDP, 42.7 yearsGermany: 22.5% of GDP, 45.1 yearsDjibouti: 15% of GDP, 24.4 yearsDenmark: 23.2% of GDP, 41.2 yearsDominican Republic: 11.7% of GDP, 27.7 yearsAlgeria: 18.3% of GDP, 28.2 yearsEcuador: 12.8% of GDP, 28.4 yearsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 5.45% of GDP, 24 yearsSpain: 19.2% of GDP, 44.9 yearsEstonia: 21.5% of GDP, 41.9 yearsEthiopia: 5.84% of GDP, 18.7 yearsFinland: 26.1% of GDP, 42.8 yearsFiji: 18.9% of GDP, 27.7 yearsFrance: 24.4% of GDP, 41.8 yearsFaroe Islands: 27.9% of GDP, 37.3 yearsGabon: 11.2% of GDP, 21.5 yearsUnited Kingdom: 21.2% of GDP, 39.8 yearsGeorgia: 13.8% of GDP, 36.8 yearsGhana: 4.8% of GDP, 20.9 yearsGuinea: 16.7% of GDP, 18 yearsGambia, The: 10.2% of GDP, 18.2 yearsGuinea-Bissau: 15.5% of GDP, 18.9 yearsEquatorial Guinea: 32.4% of GDP, 21 yearsGreece: 18.2% of GDP, 45.7 yearsGreenland: 41.7% of GDP, 34.2 yearsGuatemala: 11.5% of GDP, 22.6 yearsHong Kong SAR, China: 12.6% of GDP, 46.2 yearsHonduras: 15.2% of GDP, 23.5 yearsCroatia: 24.3% of GDP, 44.8 yearsHaiti: 5.53% of GDP, 23.5 yearsHungary: 20.8% of GDP, 43.3 yearsIndonesia: 7.53% of GDP, 29.8 yearsIndia: 10.8% of GDP, 28.1 yearsIreland: 11.2% of GDP, 38.4 yearsIran, Islamic Rep.: 13.3% of GDP, 32.9 yearsIraq: 22.2% of GDP, 20.3 yearsIceland: 26.1% of GDP, 35.8 yearsIsrael: 25% of GDP, 29.1 yearsItaly: 18.3% of GDP, 47.5 yearsJapan: 20.1% of GDP, 49 yearsKazakhstan: 10.8% of GDP, 29.5 yearsKenya: 11.2% of GDP, 19.5 yearsKyrgyz Republic: 12.2% of GDP, 25.1 yearsCambodia: 5.65% of GDP, 25.8 yearsKiribati: 59% of GDP, 22.7 yearsKorea, Rep.: 17.6% of GDP, 44.5 yearsKuwait: 25.8% of GDP, 34.5 yearsLao PDR: 14% of GDP, 24.3 yearsLebanon: 4.9% of GDP, 28.3 yearsLibya: 32.3% of GDP, 27.2 yearsSri Lanka: 6.74% of GDP, 32.8 yearsLesotho: 36.4% of GDP, 21.4 yearsLithuania: 19.3% of GDP, 42.1 yearsLuxembourg: 19.8% of GDP, 38.9 yearsLatvia: 22.9% of GDP, 43.1 yearsMacao SAR, China: 12.2% of GDP, 38.3 yearsMorocco: 18% of GDP, 29.2 yearsMoldova: 18.5% of GDP, 37.8 yearsMadagascar: 14.6% of GDP, 18.9 yearsMaldives: 17.5% of GDP, 31.1 yearsMexico: 11.8% of GDP, 28.9 yearsMarshall Islands: 54.5% of GDP, 20.7 yearsNorth Macedonia: 16.4% of GDP, 40.3 yearsMali: 13.1% of GDP, 15.5 yearsMalta: 17.5% of GDP, 40.3 yearsMontenegro: 17.4% of GDP, 39.3 yearsMongolia: 14.6% of GDP, 26.8 yearsMozambique: 19.2% of GDP, 16.3 yearsMauritania: 16% of GDP, 17.1 yearsMauritius: 14.2% of GDP, 36.9 yearsMalawi: 18.2% of GDP, 17.6 yearsMalaysia: 12.4% of GDP, 30.1 yearsNamibia: 22.3% of GDP, 21 yearsNiger: 12.2% of GDP, 15.3 yearsNicaragua: 11.4% of GDP, 25.3 yearsNetherlands: 25.9% of GDP, 41.4 yearsNorway: 22.6% of GDP, 39.5 yearsNepal: 8.38% of GDP, 24.7 yearsNew Zealand: 21.1% of GDP, 37.3 yearsOman: 18.7% of GDP, 29.3 yearsPakistan: 9.32% of GDP, 20.3 yearsPanama: 12.4% of GDP, 29.6 yearsPeru: 13.1% of GDP, 29.5 yearsPhilippines: 15.1% of GDP, 25.3 yearsPalau: 38.3% of GDP, 37.8 yearsPoland: 21.3% of GDP, 41.3 yearsPuerto Rico (US): 7.7% of GDP, 45.3 yearsPortugal: 17% of GDP, 46.2 yearsParaguay: 10.9% of GDP, 26.3 yearsWest Bank and Gaza: 17% of GDP, 19.8 yearsQatar: 12.9% of GDP, 33.2 yearsRomania: 17.3% of GDP, 42.6 yearsRussian Federation: 19.1% of GDP, 39.5 yearsRwanda: 15.1% of GDP, 19.4 yearsSaudi Arabia: 20.6% of GDP, 29.2 yearsSudan: 17.9% of GDP, 18.3 yearsSenegal: 15.4% of GDP, 19.1 yearsSingapore: 10.3% of GDP, 35.1 yearsSolomon Islands: 26.2% of GDP, 20.3 yearsSierra Leone: 5.95% of GDP, 19.3 yearsEl Salvador: 16.4% of GDP, 27 yearsSan Marino: 14.1% of GDP, 47.4 yearsSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 8.11% of GDP, 15.4 yearsSerbia: 18.5% of GDP, 43.9 yearsSao Tome and Principe: 10.3% of GDP, 19.1 yearsSuriname: 13.3% of GDP, 28.1 yearsSlovak Republic: 21.4% of GDP, 41.3 yearsSlovenia: 21.2% of GDP, 43.9 yearsSweden: 26.4% of GDP, 39.9 yearsEswatini: 21.5% of GDP, 22 yearsSeychelles: 25.1% of GDP, 33.7 yearsSyrian Arab Republic: 2.71% of GDP, 22.2 yearsChad: 9.9% of GDP, 15.4 yearsTogo: 13.3% of GDP, 18.1 yearsThailand: 16.7% of GDP, 39.7 yearsTajikistan: 11.3% of GDP, 21.9 yearsTurkmenistan: 12.4% of GDP, 26.2 yearsTimor-Leste: 60.6% of GDP, 21 yearsTonga: 23.5% of GDP, 20.7 yearsTunisia: 19.9% of GDP, 32.1 yearsTurkiye: 13.9% of GDP, 32.5 yearsTanzania: 9.78% of GDP, 17.2 yearsUganda: 11.7% of GDP, 16.5 yearsUkraine: 38.9% of GDP, 42 yearsUruguay: 17.6% of GDP, 35.8 yearsUnited States: 13.6% of GDP, 38 yearsUzbekistan: 15.9% of GDP, 26.9 yearsVirgin Islands (U.S.): 34.4% of GDP, 44.7 yearsViet Nam: 9.38% of GDP, 32.4 yearsVanuatu: 21.4% of GDP, 20.1 yearsSamoa: 18.6% of GDP, 19.9 yearsKosovo: 13.4% of GDP, 31.4 yearsSouth Africa: 18.9% of GDP, 28.2 yearsZambia: 12.7% of GDP, 17.5 yearsZimbabwe: 12.2% of GDP, 17.8 yearsBMUCYMETHKIRMHLPRISOMSYRTLSUKR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.1670.026178
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.3268.9e-6178
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1260.094178
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.1660.027178

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 178 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.040 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.095 (without UKR) to +0.158 (without MHL). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: MHL (+0.032).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific26+0.03
Europe & Central Asia52+0.19
Latin America & Caribbean26+0.31
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan21-0.00
Sub-Saharan Africa44+0.21

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third60+0.11
Middle third59+0.17
Richest third59+0.04

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians102+0.21
Muslims48+0.07

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.18
Never a European colony20+0.10
Spain19-0.21
United Kingdom47+0.17

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.103 after dropping 8 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 34years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.047, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose government consumption moved did not tend to see their median age move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.126for comparison
Within countries+0.039each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.047q = 0.479 · 185 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.011q = 0.580
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

5,568 country-years (one country in one year), 185 countries, 1990–2023, about 30 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 8% for Government consumption, 19% for Median age. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.10−0.1-100+10years Median age trails Government consumption →lag -10: r = 0.096 (n = 4,409)lag -9: r = 0.093 (n = 4,563)lag -8: r = 0.090 (n = 4,717)lag -7: r = 0.083 (n = 4,869)lag -6: r = 0.076 (n = 5,021)lag -5: r = 0.068 (n = 5,174)lag -4: r = 0.063 (n = 5,319)lag -3: r = 0.060 (n = 5,462)lag -2: r = 0.053 (n = 5,601)lag -1: r = 0.047 (n = 5,606)lag +0: r = 0.047 (n = 5,568)lag +1: r = 0.042 (n = 5,396)lag +2: r = 0.039 (n = 5,221)lag +3: r = 0.034 (n = 5,042)lag +4: r = 0.024 (n = 4,868)lag +5: r = 0.017 (n = 4,690)lag +6: r = 0.008 (n = 4,511)lag +7: r = 0.004 (n = 4,328)lag +8: r = 0.006 (n = 4,150)lag +9: r = 0.008 (n = 3,973)lag +10: r = 0.013 (n = 3,795)

Same year (lag 0): +0.047. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag -10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of GDP
years		Years
Timor-Leste TLS60.6%212024, 2023
Kiribati KIR59%22.72024, 2023
Marshall Islands MHL54.5%20.72024, 2023
Greenland GRL41.7%34.22023
Ukraine UKR38.9%422025, 2023
Palau PLW38.3%37.82024, 2023
Lesotho LSO36.4%21.42025, 2023
Virgin Islands (U.S.) VIR34.4%44.72022, 2023
Equatorial Guinea GNQ32.4%212025, 2023
Libya LBY32.3%27.22025, 2023
Botswana BWA31.5%22.92025, 2023
Faroe Islands FRO27.9%37.32024, 2023
Sweden SWE26.4%39.92025, 2023
Solomon Islands SLB26.2%20.32024, 2023
Finland FIN26.1%42.82025, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects 2024 and Estimates and Projections of Women of Reproductive Age Who Are Married or in a Union

Sources

Government consumption

General government final consumption expenditure (% of GDP)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

What government buys directly, as a share of the economy: wages, defence, and the running of schools and hospitals. It is the widely reported half of government size. Payments such as pensions and benefits are handed out, not spent on goods and services, so they are not in here. That understates government in the countries with the largest welfare systems. Government expense covers those, but for fewer countries. Compared with income per person, this answers the question the per-person dollar figure cannot. Rich countries spend far more per person because they have far more per person. Whether their governments are a larger share of what there is needs a share of GDP, not an amount per person. No "better" direction is set: a bigger or smaller government is a political question, not a better or worse one.

Median age

Median age of the population

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated biennial

The age that splits a population in half: half are older and half are younger. The shares aged under 15 and over 65 are already on the site. All three are treated as measuring the same thing. They are readings of the same age pyramid, so they are bound to match, and their agreement is not a finding. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Government consumption and Median age

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Government consumption changes Median age, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Government consumption or Median age