placestats

Fixed broadband vs. PISA science

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 86 countries, Fixed broadband and PISA science rise and fall together at r = +0.68 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.29, which could easily be chance (q = 0.24, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of pisa science, 403 to 491 PISA points, fixed broadband is better by 13.8 per 100 people at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 6.55 per 100 people.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.683p = 4.4e-13 · 86 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.294p = 0.006 · likely range [+0.09, +0.48]
p, allowing for regions0.092standard error 0.133 · 5 regions
Check for luck (q)0.239across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Fixed broadband · per 100 peoplelink with income +0.88 · proxy
PISA science · PISA pointslink with income +0.78 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Fixed broadband · per 100 people →PISA science · PISA points →4.1548.9347561Albania: 24.9 per 100 people, 376 PISA pointsUnited Arab Emirates: 40.8 per 100 people, 432 PISA pointsArgentina: 26.1 per 100 people, 406 PISA pointsAustralia: 36.5 per 100 people, 507 PISA pointsAustria: 30.1 per 100 people, 491 PISA pointsBelgium: 44.2 per 100 people, 491 PISA pointsBulgaria: 37 per 100 people, 421 PISA pointsBosnia and Herzegovina: 29.4 per 100 people, 398 PISA pointsBelarus: 36.3 per 100 people, 471 PISA pointsBrazil: 24.1 per 100 people, 403 PISA pointsBrunei Darussalam: 21.2 per 100 people, 446 PISA pointsCanada: 42.5 per 100 people, 515 PISA pointsSwitzerland: 47 per 100 people, 503 PISA pointsChile: 23.7 per 100 people, 444 PISA pointsColombia: 17.2 per 100 people, 411 PISA pointsCosta Rica: 23.3 per 100 people, 411 PISA pointsCyprus: 37.6 per 100 people, 411 PISA pointsCzechia: 38.9 per 100 people, 498 PISA pointsGermany: 45.6 per 100 people, 492 PISA pointsDenmark: 43.4 per 100 people, 494 PISA pointsDominican Republic: 11.2 per 100 people, 360 PISA pointsAlgeria: 13.3 per 100 people, 376 PISA pointsSpain: 39.2 per 100 people, 485 PISA pointsEstonia: 35.4 per 100 people, 526 PISA pointsFinland: 36.5 per 100 people, 511 PISA pointsFrance: 48.9 per 100 people, 487 PISA pointsUnited Kingdom: 42.2 per 100 people, 500 PISA pointsGeorgia: 30.4 per 100 people, 384 PISA pointsGreece: 44.7 per 100 people, 441 PISA pointsGuatemala: 5.34 per 100 people, 373 PISA pointsHong Kong SAR, China: 40.3 per 100 people, 520 PISA pointsCroatia: 29.6 per 100 people, 483 PISA pointsHungary: 37.5 per 100 people, 486 PISA pointsIndonesia: 4.92 per 100 people, 383 PISA pointsIreland: 32.3 per 100 people, 504 PISA pointsIceland: 37.5 per 100 people, 447 PISA pointsIsrael: 29.2 per 100 people, 465 PISA pointsItaly: 31.8 per 100 people, 477 PISA pointsJamaica: 16 per 100 people, 403 PISA pointsJordan: 7.02 per 100 people, 375 PISA pointsJapan: 38.6 per 100 people, 547 PISA pointsKazakhstan: 15.3 per 100 people, 423 PISA pointsCambodia: 4.15 per 100 people, 347 PISA pointsKorea, Rep.: 47.8 per 100 people, 528 PISA pointsLebanon: 7.29 per 100 people, 384 PISA pointsLithuania: 27.8 per 100 people, 484 PISA pointsLuxembourg: 40.3 per 100 people, 477 PISA pointsLatvia: 25.8 per 100 people, 494 PISA pointsMacao SAR, China: 29.9 per 100 people, 543 PISA pointsMorocco: 7.3 per 100 people, 365 PISA pointsMoldova: 29.6 per 100 people, 417 PISA pointsMexico: 21.7 per 100 people, 410 PISA pointsNorth Macedonia: 29.9 per 100 people, 380 PISA pointsMalta: 44.5 per 100 people, 466 PISA pointsMontenegro: 32.3 per 100 people, 403 PISA pointsMongolia: 15.8 per 100 people, 412 PISA pointsMalaysia: 13.5 per 100 people, 416 PISA pointsNetherlands: 43 per 100 people, 488 PISA pointsNorway: 45.2 per 100 people, 478 PISA pointsNew Zealand: 38 per 100 people, 504 PISA pointsPanama: 18.1 per 100 people, 388 PISA pointsPeru: 11.7 per 100 people, 408 PISA pointsPhilippines: 7.14 per 100 people, 356 PISA pointsPoland: 25.4 per 100 people, 499 PISA pointsPortugal: 45.2 per 100 people, 484 PISA pointsParaguay: 12.9 per 100 people, 368 PISA pointsWest Bank and Gaza: 8.16 per 100 people, 369 PISA pointsQatar: 11.8 per 100 people, 432 PISA pointsRomania: 35.8 per 100 people, 428 PISA pointsRussian Federation: 27.1 per 100 people, 478 PISA pointsSaudi Arabia: 44.1 per 100 people, 390 PISA pointsSingapore: 27.8 per 100 people, 561 PISA pointsEl Salvador: 12.5 per 100 people, 373 PISA pointsSerbia: 33.4 per 100 people, 447 PISA pointsSlovak Republic: 33.8 per 100 people, 462 PISA pointsSlovenia: 34.2 per 100 people, 500 PISA pointsSweden: 40.6 per 100 people, 494 PISA pointsThailand: 14.9 per 100 people, 409 PISA pointsTrinidad and Tobago: 27 per 100 people, 425 PISA pointsTunisia: 15 per 100 people, 386 PISA pointsTurkiye: 23.4 per 100 people, 476 PISA pointsUkraine: 21.7 per 100 people, 450 PISA pointsUruguay: 33 per 100 people, 435 PISA pointsUnited States: 38.9 per 100 people, 499 PISA pointsUzbekistan: 34.7 per 100 people, 355 PISA pointsViet Nam: 23.7 per 100 people, 472 PISA pointsCHEGRCGTMJPNKHMKORMACPHLPOLSAUSGPUZB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.6834.4e-1386
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.6662.7e-1286
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2940.00686
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2470.02386

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 86 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.388 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.216 (without QAT) to +0.341 (without SAU). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: QAT (-0.079).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific15+0.79
Europe & Central Asia43-0.00
Latin America & Caribbean15+0.72

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third29+0.27
Middle third28+0.35
Richest third29+0.21

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians55+0.27
Muslims17-0.29

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Spain14+0.69
United Kingdom14+0.44

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.294 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 17years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.129, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose fixed broadband moved did not tend to see their pisa science move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.294for comparison
Within countries-0.190each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.129q = 0.481 · 55 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

323 country-years (one country in one year), 55 countries, 2006–2022, about 6 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 5% for Fixed broadband, 30% for PISA science. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.40−0.4-60+8years PISA science trails Fixed broadband →lag -6: r = -0.028 (n = 245)lag -5: r = -0.059 (n = 255)lag -4: r = -0.048 (n = 255)lag -3: r = -0.094 (n = 255)lag -2: r = -0.076 (n = 322)lag -1: r = -0.121 (n = 323)lag +0: r = -0.129 (n = 323)lag +1: r = -0.166 (n = 324)lag +2: r = -0.231 (n = 322)lag +3: r = -0.271 (n = 311)lag +4: r = -0.307 (n = 318)lag +5: r = -0.310 (n = 300)lag +6: r = -0.332 (n = 275)lag +7: r = -0.359 (n = 236)lag +8: r = -0.250 (n = 214)

Same year (lag 0): -0.129. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.36 at lag +7) is higher than the same-year one by 0.23. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 15 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


per 100 people
PISA points		Years
France FRA48.94872024, 2022
Korea, Rep. KOR47.85282024, 2022
Switzerland CHE475032024, 2022
Germany DEU45.64922024, 2022
Portugal PRT45.24842024, 2022
Norway NOR45.24782024, 2022
Greece GRC44.74412024, 2022
Malta MLT44.54662024, 2022
Belgium BEL44.24912024, 2022
Saudi Arabia SAU44.13902024, 2022
Denmark DNK43.44942024, 2022
Netherlands NLD434882024, 2022
Canada CAN42.55152024, 2022
United Kingdom GBR42.25002024, 2022
United Arab Emirates ARE40.84322024, 2022

World Bank, World Development Indicators
OECD databases as named on each indicator: PISA, Social Expenditure Database (SOCX), Income Distribution Database, Development Assistance Committee statistics, Family Database, Government at a Glance, Corporate Tax Statistics, employment and environment statistics

Sources

Fixed broadband

Fixed broadband subscriptions (per 100 people)

International Telecommunication Union · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Subscriptions, not people. A household line counts once, however many people use it. A country that went straight to mobile data can be well connected with few of these lines. Internet users, already on the site, is the measure of people.

PISA science

PISA mean science score

OECD · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 (OECD terms and conditions) · updated annual, except the snapshots noted per indicator

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2015–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 5 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Fixed broadband and PISA science

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Fixed broadband changes PISA science, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Fixed broadband or PISA science