placestats

Family benefits spending vs. Governance score

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 42 countries, Family benefits spending and Governance score rise and fall together at r = +0.49 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.39, q = 0.0044, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: leave-one-out range spans 0.19 in r.

Comparing countries across the middle half of family benefits spending, 1.63% to 2.75% of GDP, governance score is better by 0.3 typical gaps at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.213 typical gaps.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.494p = 0.001 · 42 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.393p = 0.011 · likely range [+0.10, +0.62]
p, allowing for regions7.9e-5standard error 0.024 · 5 regions
Check for luck (q)0.004across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Family benefits spending · % of GDPlink with income +0.28 · independent
Governance score · typical gaps (standard deviations)link with income +0.53 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Family benefits spending · % of GDP →Governance score · typical gaps (standard deviations) →0.454%3.82%-0.6911.47Australia: 1.89% of GDP, 1.38 typical gaps (standard deviations)Austria: 2.59% of GDP, 1.33 typical gaps (standard deviations)Belgium: 2.8% of GDP, 1.41 typical gaps (standard deviations)Bulgaria: 2.11% of GDP, 0.74 typical gaps (standard deviations)Canada: 1.57% of GDP, 1.36 typical gaps (standard deviations)Switzerland: 1.68% of GDP, 1.47 typical gaps (standard deviations)Chile: 1.77% of GDP, 1.32 typical gaps (standard deviations)Colombia: 1.84% of GDP, 0.733 typical gaps (standard deviations)Costa Rica: 1.32% of GDP, 1.34 typical gaps (standard deviations)Czechia: 2.21% of GDP, 1.31 typical gaps (standard deviations)Germany: 2.65% of GDP, 1.36 typical gaps (standard deviations)Denmark: 3.15% of GDP, 1.47 typical gaps (standard deviations)Spain: 1.48% of GDP, 1.32 typical gaps (standard deviations)Estonia: 3% of GDP, 1.41 typical gaps (standard deviations)Finland: 3.09% of GDP, 1.38 typical gaps (standard deviations)France: 2.63% of GDP, 1.24 typical gaps (standard deviations)United Kingdom: 1.85% of GDP, 1.27 typical gaps (standard deviations)Greece: 1.69% of GDP, 0.914 typical gaps (standard deviations)Croatia: 1.97% of GDP, 0.865 typical gaps (standard deviations)Hungary: 2.32% of GDP, 0.225 typical gaps (standard deviations)Ireland: 1.33% of GDP, 1.41 typical gaps (standard deviations)Iceland: 3.82% of GDP, 1.32 typical gaps (standard deviations)Israel: 1.89% of GDP, 0.783 typical gaps (standard deviations)Italy: 1.43% of GDP, 1 typical gaps (standard deviations)Japan: 1.98% of GDP, 1.28 typical gaps (standard deviations)Korea, Rep.: 1.65% of GDP, 1.05 typical gaps (standard deviations)Lithuania: 2.81% of GDP, 1.14 typical gaps (standard deviations)Luxembourg: 3.19% of GDP, 1.38 typical gaps (standard deviations)Latvia: 2.88% of GDP, 1.22 typical gaps (standard deviations)Mexico: 0.548% of GDP, 0.134 typical gaps (standard deviations)Netherlands: 1.62% of GDP, 1.32 typical gaps (standard deviations)Norway: 2.78% of GDP, 1.43 typical gaps (standard deviations)New Zealand: 2.52% of GDP, 1.32 typical gaps (standard deviations)Peru: 1.14% of GDP, 0.522 typical gaps (standard deviations)Poland: 3.33% of GDP, 0.996 typical gaps (standard deviations)Portugal: 1.32% of GDP, 1.26 typical gaps (standard deviations)Romania: 2.27% of GDP, 0.749 typical gaps (standard deviations)Slovak Republic: 2.08% of GDP, 1.02 typical gaps (standard deviations)Slovenia: 1.87% of GDP, 1.19 typical gaps (standard deviations)Sweden: 3.32% of GDP, 1.42 typical gaps (standard deviations)Turkiye: 0.454% of GDP, -0.691 typical gaps (standard deviations)United States: 0.604% of GDP, 0.998 typical gaps (standard deviations)CRIDNKHUNIRLISLMEXPERPOLSWETURUSA

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.4940.00142
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.3710.01542
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3930.01142
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2530.11042

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 42 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.101 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.252 (without TUR) to +0.444 (without HUN). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: TUR (-0.140).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • leave-one-out range spans 0.19 in r

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
Europe & Central Asia30+0.44

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third14+0.57
Middle third14+0.22
Richest third14+0.52

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians35+0.24

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.244 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of GDP
typical gaps (standard deviations)		Years
Iceland ISL3.82%1.322021, 2025
Poland POL3.33%0.9962021, 2025
Sweden SWE3.32%1.422021, 2025
Luxembourg LUX3.19%1.382021, 2025
Denmark DNK3.15%1.472021, 2025
Finland FIN3.09%1.382021, 2025
Estonia EST3%1.412021, 2025
Latvia LVA2.88%1.222021, 2025
Lithuania LTU2.81%1.142021, 2025
Belgium BEL2.8%1.412021, 2025
Norway NOR2.78%1.432021, 2025
Germany DEU2.65%1.362021, 2025
France FRA2.63%1.242022, 2025
Austria AUT2.59%1.332021, 2025
New Zealand NZL2.52%1.322022, 2025

OECD databases as named on each indicator: PISA, Social Expenditure Database (SOCX), Income Distribution Database, Development Assistance Committee statistics, Family Database, Government at a Glance, Corporate Tax Statistics, employment and environment statistics
fh; un_sdg; vdem; wdi; wgi

Sources

Family benefits spending

Public spending on family benefits

OECD · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 (OECD terms and conditions) · updated annual, except the snapshots noted per indicator

Child benefits, parental leave and childcare, paid as cash or provided as services. Only about a dozen countries have figures after 2021, while the rest catch up.

Governance score

Governance score

PlaceStats · via PlaceStats · Derived work; each member keeps its own licence · updated recomputed with the panel

The average of 19 measures from 5 publishers. Each measure is first put on a common scale: 0 is the average country in an average year, and 1 is a typical gap between countries (a standard deviation). Each is turned so that higher is better. Measures are averaged within each publisher first, so a publisher with many measures does not count for more. Members: Civil liberties (FH), Political rights (FH), Pre-trial detainee share, Civil society participation, Political corruption, Electoral democracy, Freedom of association, Freedom of expression, Free and fair elections, Liberal democracy, Participatory democracy, Political civil liberties, Birth registration, Control of corruption, Government effectiveness, Political stability, Rule of law, Regulatory quality, Voice and accountability.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2021–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 5 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Family benefits spending and Governance score

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Family benefits spending changes Governance score, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Family benefits spending or Governance score