placestats

Expected schooling vs. One-person households

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 143 countries, Expected schooling and One-person households rise and fall together at r = +0.66 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.26 (q = 0.023, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak positive link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of one-person households, 6.56% to 22.5% of households, expected schooling is better by 3.02 years at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.996 years.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.657p = 4.9e-19 · 143 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.265p = 0.001 · likely range [+0.10, +0.41]
p, allowing for regions0.000standard error 0.035 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.023across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Expected schooling · yearslink with income +0.81 · proxy
One-person households · % of householdslink with income +0.70 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Expected schooling · years →One-person households · % of households →7.0120.80.19%41.1%Afghanistan: 10.8 years, 0.19% of householdsAngola: 12.2 years, 10.8% of householdsAlbania: 14.5 years, 9.95% of householdsArgentina: 18.8 years, 22.8% of householdsArmenia: 14.4 years, 15.2% of householdsAustralia: 20.7 years, 22.8% of householdsAustria: 16.3 years, 36.3% of householdsBurundi: 9.83 years, 6.04% of householdsBelgium: 19 years, 34% of householdsBenin: 10.4 years, 9.78% of householdsBurkina Faso: 8.73 years, 6.64% of householdsBangladesh: 12.3 years, 2.85% of householdsBulgaria: 15.3 years, 30.8% of householdsBahamas, The: 11.9 years, 17.7% of householdsBosnia and Herzegovina: 13.2 years, 11.5% of householdsBelarus: 13.7 years, 38% of householdsBelize: 12 years, 17.2% of householdsBolivia: 15.6 years, 20.5% of householdsBrazil: 15.8 years, 12% of householdsBarbados: 16.6 years, 26.3% of householdsBrunei Darussalam: 13.7 years, 7.22% of householdsBhutan: 13.2 years, 6.13% of householdsCentral African Republic: 7.44 years, 6.2% of householdsCanada: 15.9 years, 28.2% of householdsChile: 16.9 years, 20.2% of householdsCote d'Ivoire: 11.4 years, 17% of householdsCameroon: 10.8 years, 15.3% of householdsCongo, Dem. Rep.: 10.9 years, 7.55% of householdsCongo, Rep.: 12.7 years, 13.8% of householdsColombia: 14.3 years, 11.1% of householdsComoros: 13.3 years, 4.91% of householdsCosta Rica: 16.3 years, 12.1% of householdsCyprus: 16.2 years, 20.8% of householdsCzechia: 16.8 years, 32.5% of householdsGermany: 17.3 years, 37.3% of householdsDominican Republic: 13.6 years, 20.1% of householdsAlgeria: 15.5 years, 1.61% of householdsEgypt, Arab Rep.: 13.1 years, 6.48% of householdsSpain: 17.8 years, 23.2% of householdsEthiopia: 9.22 years, 6.36% of householdsFinland: 19.5 years, 41% of householdsFiji: 13.8 years, 5.94% of householdsFrance: 16.1 years, 35.5% of householdsGabon: 12.5 years, 22.4% of householdsUnited Kingdom: 17.8 years, 30.6% of householdsGeorgia: 16.8 years, 15% of householdsGhana: 11.4 years, 21.5% of householdsGuinea: 10.4 years, 5.07% of householdsGambia, The: 8.98 years, 9.72% of householdsGuinea-Bissau: 10.6 years, 4.14% of householdsGreece: 20.8 years, 25.7% of householdsGuatemala: 10.7 years, 4.33% of householdsGuyana: 13 years, 15.8% of householdsHong Kong SAR, China: 16.9 years, 18.3% of householdsHonduras: 10.2 years, 10.4% of householdsCroatia: 16.3 years, 24.6% of householdsHaiti: 10.9 years, 9.43% of householdsHungary: 15.5 years, 32.1% of householdsIndonesia: 13.3 years, 7.1% of householdsIndia: 13 years, 5.11% of householdsIreland: 19.2 years, 22% of householdsIran, Islamic Rep.: 14 years, 7.16% of householdsIraq: 12.4 years, 1.01% of householdsItaly: 16.7 years, 31.1% of householdsJamaica: 12.4 years, 28.2% of householdsJordan: 13.1 years, 4.36% of householdsJapan: 15.5 years, 34.5% of householdsKazakhstan: 14 years, 15.5% of householdsKenya: 11.5 years, 19.4% of householdsKyrgyz Republic: 12.7 years, 12.3% of householdsCambodia: 11.2 years, 3.37% of householdsKiribati: 11.9 years, 3.71% of householdsKorea, Rep.: 16.6 years, 31.8% of householdsLao PDR: 9.61 years, 3.18% of householdsLiberia: 10.5 years, 12% of householdsSt. Lucia: 12.7 years, 26.8% of householdsLesotho: 11 years, 18% of householdsLithuania: 16.5 years, 31.7% of householdsLuxembourg: 14.4 years, 33.3% of householdsLatvia: 16.5 years, 41.1% of householdsMorocco: 15.1 years, 7.2% of householdsMoldova: 14.6 years, 22.6% of householdsMadagascar: 9.06 years, 7.11% of householdsMaldives: 12.8 years, 4.49% of householdsMexico: 14.5 years, 10.1% of householdsNorth Macedonia: 14.8 years, 11.8% of householdsMali: 7.01 years, 3.11% of householdsMalta: 15.9 years, 22.6% of householdsMyanmar: 11.5 years, 5.35% of householdsMontenegro: 15.5 years, 15.4% of householdsMongolia: 13.6 years, 8.96% of householdsMozambique: 10.8 years, 8.41% of householdsMauritania: 7.95 years, 3.97% of householdsMalawi: 9.9 years, 7.2% of householdsNamibia: 11.8 years, 17.4% of householdsNiger: 8.31 years, 3.19% of householdsNigeria: 10.5 years, 14.7% of householdsNorway: 18.8 years, 39.6% of householdsNepal: 13.8 years, 4.51% of householdsNew Zealand: 19.3 years, 21.9% of householdsPakistan: 7.9 years, 1.08% of householdsPanama: 13.3 years, 13.4% of householdsPeru: 14.9 years, 16.8% of householdsPhilippines: 12.8 years, 9.18% of householdsPoland: 16.7 years, 24% of householdsPortugal: 17.5 years, 21.4% of householdsParaguay: 14 years, 10.4% of householdsWest Bank and Gaza: 13 years, 4.31% of householdsQatar: 13.1 years, 6.98% of householdsRomania: 14.1 years, 26% of householdsRussian Federation: 13.2 years, 25.7% of householdsRwanda: 12.6 years, 7.69% of householdsSudan: 8.62 years, 1.59% of householdsSenegal: 9.14 years, 6.92% of householdsSingapore: 16.7 years, 16.1% of householdsSierra Leone: 9.06 years, 6.42% of householdsEl Salvador: 11.1 years, 8.46% of householdsSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 7.49 years, 1.53% of householdsSerbia: 15 years, 21.8% of householdsSao Tome and Principe: 12.9 years, 13.8% of householdsSuriname: 11 years, 14% of householdsSlovak Republic: 14.9 years, 25.3% of householdsSlovenia: 17.5 years, 32.6% of householdsEswatini: 15.2 years, 21.7% of householdsChad: 8.35 years, 5.43% of householdsTogo: 13.1 years, 15.7% of householdsThailand: 15.4 years, 21.6% of householdsTajikistan: 10.8 years, 2.88% of householdsTurkmenistan: 13.2 years, 3.74% of householdsTimor-Leste: 13.3 years, 6.41% of householdsTonga: 17.8 years, 6.94% of householdsTunisia: 14.7 years, 6.27% of householdsTuvalu: 12.4 years, 6.92% of householdsTanzania: 8.59 years, 9.63% of householdsUganda: 11.6 years, 13.2% of householdsUkraine: 13.3 years, 25% of householdsUruguay: 17.5 years, 17.6% of householdsUnited States: 15.9 years, 27.9% of householdsViet Nam: 15.5 years, 10.5% of householdsSamoa: 12.4 years, 4.4% of householdsSouth Africa: 13.8 years, 23.8% of householdsZambia: 11 years, 7.97% of householdsZimbabwe: 11.1 years, 12.9% of householdsAUSBELBLRDZAFINJAMLVAMLINORPAKSOMTON

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.6574.9e-19143
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.6641.6e-19143
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.2650.001143
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.2230.008143

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 143 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.393 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.227 (without QAT) to +0.288 (without TON). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: QAT (-0.038).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific21+0.41
Europe & Central Asia39+0.15
Latin America & Caribbean23+0.32
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan12+0.38
Sub-Saharan Africa41+0.52

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third48+0.18
Middle third47+0.15
Richest third48+0.30

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians90+0.16
Muslims36+0.01

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France22+0.18
Never a European colony15+0.20
Spain16+0.57
United Kingdom44+0.28

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.265 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 32years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.091, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose expected schooling moved did not tend to see their one-person households move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.265for comparison
Within countries+0.317each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.091q = 0.470 · 56 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —
The direction flips. Comparing each country only with itself gives +0.32. Also taking out what happened to the whole world each year gives -0.09. So the first figure was picking up a trend both measures share with worldwide progress, not a link between them.
Read with care.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

405 country-years (one country in one year), 56 countries, 1990–2021, about 7 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 13% for Expected schooling, 26% for One-person households. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years One-person households trails Expected schooling →lag -10: r = 0.055 (n = 233)lag -9: r = 0.011 (n = 267)lag -8: r = -0.005 (n = 300)lag -7: r = 0.021 (n = 325)lag -6: r = 0.012 (n = 349)lag -5: r = -0.034 (n = 368)lag -4: r = -0.073 (n = 397)lag -3: r = -0.062 (n = 405)lag -2: r = -0.065 (n = 405)lag -1: r = -0.048 (n = 405)lag +0: r = -0.091 (n = 405)lag +1: r = -0.093 (n = 388)lag +2: r = -0.053 (n = 378)lag +3: r = -0.005 (n = 365)lag +4: r = -0.029 (n = 357)lag +5: r = -0.079 (n = 332)lag +6: r = -0.143 (n = 321)lag +7: r = -0.148 (n = 306)lag +8: r = -0.154 (n = 288)lag +9: r = -0.128 (n = 272)lag +10: r = -0.202 (n = 240)

Same year (lag 0): -0.091. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


years
% of households		Years
Greece GRC20.825.7%2023, 2011
Australia AUS20.722.8%2023, 2016
Finland FIN19.541%2023, 2010
New Zealand NZL19.321.9%2023, 2018
Ireland IRL19.222%2023, 2016
Belgium BEL1934%2023, 2011
Argentina ARG18.822.8%2023, 2019
Norway NOR18.839.6%2023, 2011
Spain ESP17.823.2%2023, 2011
United Kingdom GBR17.830.6%2023, 2011
Tonga TON17.86.94%2023, 2019
Portugal PRT17.521.4%2023, 2011
Uruguay URY17.517.6%2023, 2012
Slovenia SVN17.532.6%2023, 2015
Germany DEU17.337.3%2023, 2011

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2022). Database on Household Size and Composition 2022.

Sources

Expected schooling

Expected years of schooling

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

The years a child starting school today can expect to spend in it, if current enrolment rates hold. It is a forecast built from the same UNESCO enrolment figures the site already has, so it moves with them.

One-person households

Share of one-person households

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated irregular (2017, 2019 and 2022 editions)

Households of one person, from the same UN collection as the single-parent share and with the same limits: one to three readings per country, from sources that sort households differently, and few after 2019. It rises with age and with income, and falls with family size. That is three different things in one number. No "better" direction is set.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Expected schooling and One-person households

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Expected schooling changes One-person households, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Expected schooling or One-person households