placestats

Expected schooling vs. Extreme poverty rate

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 162 countries, Expected schooling and Extreme poverty rate rise and fall together at r = -0.61 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.02, which could easily be chance (q = 0.90, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: sign flips when a single country is removed.

Comparing countries across the middle half of expected schooling, 11.4 to 15.9 years, extreme poverty rate is better by 17.8% of population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.638% of population.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.610p = 6.6e-18 · 162 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.020p = 0.799 · likely range [-0.17, +0.13]
p, allowing for regions0.827standard error 0.088 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.902across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Expected schooling · yearslink with income +0.81 · proxy
Extreme poverty rate · % of populationlink with income -0.83 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Expected schooling · years →Extreme poverty rate · % of population →6.2120.80%85.3%Angola: 12.2 years, 39.3% of populationAlbania: 14.5 years, 0.3% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 15.6 years, 0% of populationArgentina: 18.8 years, 1% of populationArmenia: 14.4 years, 0.8% of populationAustralia: 20.7 years, 0.9% of populationAustria: 16.3 years, 0.5% of populationBurundi: 9.83 years, 74.2% of populationBelgium: 19 years, 0.1% of populationBenin: 10.4 years, 27.2% of populationBurkina Faso: 8.73 years, 42.1% of populationBangladesh: 12.3 years, 5.9% of populationBulgaria: 15.3 years, 1% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 13.2 years, 0.3% of populationBelarus: 13.7 years, 0% of populationBelize: 12 years, 1% of populationBolivia: 15.6 years, 2.1% of populationBrazil: 15.8 years, 3% of populationBarbados: 16.6 years, 1.7% of populationBhutan: 13.2 years, 0% of populationBotswana: 11.4 years, 21.4% of populationCentral African Republic: 7.44 years, 71.6% of populationCanada: 15.9 years, 0.3% of populationSwitzerland: 16.7 years, 0.2% of populationChile: 16.9 years, 0.4% of populationChina: 15.5 years, 0% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 11.4 years, 20.8% of populationCameroon: 10.8 years, 26.7% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 10.9 years, 85.3% of populationCongo, Rep.: 12.7 years, 39.2% of populationColombia: 14.3 years, 8.5% of populationComoros: 13.3 years, 5.1% of populationCabo Verde: 11.4 years, 14.6% of populationCosta Rica: 16.3 years, 0.8% of populationCyprus: 16.2 years, 0% of populationCzechia: 16.8 years, 0% of populationGermany: 17.3 years, 0.7% of populationDjibouti: 6.21 years, 25.4% of populationDenmark: 18.7 years, 0.4% of populationDominican Republic: 13.6 years, 0.8% of populationAlgeria: 15.5 years, 0% of populationEcuador: 14.9 years, 3.4% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 13.1 years, 1.4% of populationSpain: 17.8 years, 0.8% of populationEstonia: 16 years, 0.3% of populationEthiopia: 9.22 years, 38.6% of populationFinland: 19.5 years, 0.2% of populationFiji: 13.8 years, 4.7% of populationFrance: 16.1 years, 0.1% of populationMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 11.5 years, 26.1% of populationGabon: 12.5 years, 3.8% of populationUnited Kingdom: 17.8 years, 0.4% of populationGeorgia: 16.8 years, 4.2% of populationGhana: 11.4 years, 39% of populationGuinea: 10.4 years, 11.7% of populationGambia, The: 8.98 years, 22% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 10.6 years, 39.9% of populationEquatorial Guinea: 12.5 years, 8.8% of populationGreece: 20.8 years, 0.6% of populationGrenada: 16.6 years, 0.8% of populationGuatemala: 10.7 years, 9.7% of populationHonduras: 10.2 years, 15.7% of populationCroatia: 16.3 years, 0.3% of populationHaiti: 10.9 years, 40.4% of populationHungary: 15.5 years, 0.9% of populationIndonesia: 13.3 years, 4% of populationIndia: 13 years, 5.3% of populationIreland: 19.2 years, 0.1% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 14 years, 2.5% of populationIraq: 12.4 years, 0.5% of populationIceland: 18.9 years, 0.1% of populationIsrael: 14.9 years, 0.4% of populationItaly: 16.7 years, 0.9% of populationJamaica: 12.4 years, 1.4% of populationJordan: 13.1 years, 0.1% of populationJapan: 15.5 years, 1.2% of populationKazakhstan: 14 years, 0% of populationKenya: 11.5 years, 45.5% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 12.7 years, 2.2% of populationKiribati: 11.9 years, 0.9% of populationKorea, Rep.: 16.6 years, 0.1% of populationLao PDR: 9.61 years, 7.1% of populationLebanon: 11.7 years, 5.8% of populationLiberia: 10.5 years, 33.6% of populationSt. Lucia: 12.7 years, 0.1% of populationSri Lanka: 13.1 years, 2.7% of populationLesotho: 11 years, 41.9% of populationLithuania: 16.5 years, 1.1% of populationLuxembourg: 14.4 years, 0.1% of populationLatvia: 16.5 years, 0.4% of populationMorocco: 15.1 years, 3.7% of populationMoldova: 14.6 years, 0.1% of populationMadagascar: 9.06 years, 69.2% of populationMaldives: 12.8 years, 0% of populationMexico: 14.5 years, 1.6% of populationMarshall Islands: 16.4 years, 2.1% of populationNorth Macedonia: 14.8 years, 3.9% of populationMali: 7.01 years, 36.1% of populationMalta: 15.9 years, 0.4% of populationMyanmar: 11.5 years, 10.3% of populationMontenegro: 15.5 years, 2.5% of populationMongolia: 13.6 years, 0.4% of populationMozambique: 10.8 years, 81.4% of populationMauritania: 7.95 years, 10.2% of populationMauritius: 14.2 years, 0.5% of populationMalawi: 9.9 years, 75.4% of populationMalaysia: 12.7 years, 0% of populationNamibia: 11.8 years, 22.9% of populationNiger: 8.31 years, 60.5% of populationNigeria: 10.5 years, 41.8% of populationNicaragua: 11.5 years, 6.6% of populationNetherlands: 18.6 years, 0.1% of populationNorway: 18.8 years, 0.2% of populationNepal: 13.8 years, 2.4% of populationNaoero: 12.8 years, 9.7% of populationPakistan: 7.9 years, 23% of populationPanama: 13.3 years, 3.1% of populationPeru: 14.9 years, 5.1% of populationPhilippines: 12.8 years, 5.3% of populationPoland: 16.7 years, 0.2% of populationPortugal: 17.5 years, 0.4% of populationParaguay: 14 years, 2.1% of populationWest Bank and Gaza: 13 years, 2.1% of populationQatar: 13.1 years, 0% of populationRomania: 14.1 years, 0.7% of populationRussian Federation: 13.2 years, 0.1% of populationRwanda: 12.6 years, 38.6% of populationSudan: 8.62 years, 10.1% of populationSenegal: 9.14 years, 17.9% of populationSolomon Islands: 11.3 years, 40.3% of populationSierra Leone: 9.06 years, 41.5% of populationEl Salvador: 11.1 years, 4.6% of populationSerbia: 15 years, 1.1% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 12.9 years, 13% of populationSuriname: 11 years, 2.2% of populationSlovak Republic: 14.9 years, 0.5% of populationSlovenia: 17.5 years, 0% of populationSweden: 19 years, 0.8% of populationEswatini: 15.2 years, 44.5% of populationSeychelles: 18.2 years, 0.7% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 7.42 years, 18% of populationChad: 8.35 years, 39.5% of populationTogo: 13.1 years, 34.7% of populationThailand: 15.4 years, 0% of populationTajikistan: 10.8 years, 6.1% of populationTimor-Leste: 13.3 years, 44% of populationTonga: 17.8 years, 0.4% of populationTunisia: 14.7 years, 0.7% of populationTurkiye: 19.8 years, 0.2% of populationTuvalu: 12.4 years, 9% of populationTanzania: 8.59 years, 51.3% of populationUganda: 11.6 years, 59.8% of populationUkraine: 13.3 years, 0% of populationUruguay: 17.5 years, 0.2% of populationUnited States: 15.9 years, 1.1% of populationUzbekistan: 12.5 years, 2.3% of populationViet Nam: 15.5 years, 1.6% of populationVanuatu: 11.8 years, 19.5% of populationSamoa: 12.4 years, 4.5% of populationSouth Africa: 13.8 years, 17.4% of populationZambia: 11 years, 71.7% of populationZimbabwe: 11.1 years, 49.2% of populationAUSCAFCODDJIGRCMOZMRTMWISDNSWZTUR

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.6106.6e-18162
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.7366.2e-29162
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.0200.799162
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1550.049162

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 162 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.590 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.044 (without COD) to +0.010 (without TON). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: TON (+0.030).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • sign flips when a single country is removed
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific23-0.03
Europe & Central Asia46+0.07
Latin America & Caribbean24+0.06
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan16-0.89
Sub-Saharan Africa45+0.18

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third54-0.12
Middle third54-0.08
Richest third54-0.01

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians103+0.00
Muslims39-0.41

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24-0.02
Never a European colony16-0.14
Spain20-0.29
United Kingdom48-0.12

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.157 after dropping 13 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 34years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.168, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose expected schooling moved did not tend to see their extreme poverty rate move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.020for comparison
Within countries-0.482each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.168q = 0.052 · 119 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.005q = 0.908
Read with care.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

2,058 country-years (one country in one year), 119 countries, 1990–2023, about 17 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 18% for Expected schooling, 19% for Extreme poverty rate. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Extreme poverty rate trails Expected schooling →lag -10: r = -0.159 (n = 1,260)lag -9: r = -0.176 (n = 1,343)lag -8: r = -0.177 (n = 1,432)lag -7: r = -0.189 (n = 1,515)lag -6: r = -0.186 (n = 1,582)lag -5: r = -0.195 (n = 1,677)lag -4: r = -0.194 (n = 1,755)lag -3: r = -0.190 (n = 1,829)lag -2: r = -0.179 (n = 1,922)lag -1: r = -0.185 (n = 2,000)lag +0: r = -0.168 (n = 2,058)lag +1: r = -0.154 (n = 2,054)lag +2: r = -0.140 (n = 2,025)lag +3: r = -0.116 (n = 1,982)lag +4: r = -0.106 (n = 1,939)lag +5: r = -0.088 (n = 1,900)lag +6: r = -0.067 (n = 1,853)lag +7: r = -0.022 (n = 1,797)lag +8: r = 0.020 (n = 1,753)lag +9: r = 0.044 (n = 1,693)lag +10: r = 0.061 (n = 1,642)

Same year (lag 0): -0.168. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


years
% of population		Years
Greece GRC20.80.6%2023
Australia AUS20.70.9%2023, 2020
Turkiye TUR19.80.2%2023
Finland FIN19.50.2%2023
Ireland IRL19.20.1%2023
Belgium BEL190.1%2023
Sweden SWE190.8%2023
Iceland ISL18.90.1%2023, 2019
Argentina ARG18.81%2023, 2024
Norway NOR18.80.2%2023
Denmark DNK18.70.4%2023
Netherlands NLD18.60.1%2023, 2021
Seychelles SYC18.20.7%2023, 2018
Spain ESP17.80.8%2023
United Kingdom GBR17.80.4%2023, 2021

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report 2025
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Expected schooling

Expected years of schooling

United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

The years a child starting school today can expect to spend in it, if current enrolment rates hold. It is a forecast built from the same UNESCO enrolment figures the site already has, so it moves with them.

Extreme poverty rate

Poverty headcount ratio at $3.00 a day (2021 PPP) (% of population)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Expected schooling and Extreme poverty rate

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Expected schooling changes Extreme poverty rate, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Expected schooling or Extreme poverty rate