placestats

Electricity access vs. Migrant share of population

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 198 countries, Electricity access and Migrant share of population rise and fall together at r = +0.31 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) flips the link to -0.21 (q = 0.019, allowing for the many pairs tested). The first figure pointed the other way only as richer and poorer countries differ. Caution: correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed.

Comparing countries across the middle half of electricity access, 89.5% to 100% of population, migrant share of population is 2.52% of population higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap reverses, to 2.1% of population the other way.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.306p = 1.1e-5 · 198 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.210p = 0.003 · likely range [-0.34, -0.07]
p, allowing for regions0.001standard error 0.034 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.019across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Electricity access · % of populationlink with income +0.79 · high
Migrant share of population · % of populationlink with income +0.73 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Electricity access · % of population →Migrant share of population · % of population →13.4%100%0.1%76.7%Aruba: 100% of population, 68% of populationAfghanistan: 87.8% of population, 0.2% of populationAngola: 55.5% of population, 1.8% of populationAlbania: 100% of population, 1.7% of populationAndorra: 100% of population, 59.1% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 100% of population, 74% of populationArgentina: 98.4% of population, 4.3% of populationArmenia: 100% of population, 9.2% of populationAntigua and Barbuda: 100% of population, 32.5% of populationAustralia: 100% of population, 30.4% of populationAustria: 100% of population, 25.5% of populationAzerbaijan: 100% of population, 2.1% of populationBurundi: 20.1% of population, 2.8% of populationBelgium: 100% of population, 20% of populationBenin: 59% of population, 2.9% of populationBurkina Faso: 34% of population, 3.1% of populationBangladesh: 99.5% of population, 1.7% of populationBulgaria: 100% of population, 4.4% of populationBahrain: 100% of population, 52.3% of populationBahamas, The: 100% of population, 16.8% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 100% of population, 1.1% of populationBelarus: 100% of population, 11.6% of populationBelize: 99.6% of population, 16.5% of populationBermuda: 100% of population, 31.2% of populationBolivia: 96.6% of population, 1.5% of populationBrazil: 99.8% of population, 0.7% of populationBarbados: 100% of population, 12.5% of populationBrunei Darussalam: 100% of population, 25.9% of populationBhutan: 100% of population, 7% of populationBotswana: 80.2% of population, 4.6% of populationCentral African Republic: 18.2% of population, 1.8% of populationCanada: 100% of population, 22.2% of populationSwitzerland: 100% of population, 31.1% of populationChile: 99% of population, 7.8% of populationChina: 100% of population, 0.1% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 72.9% of population, 9% of populationCameroon: 72% of population, 2.2% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 22.5% of population, 1% of populationCongo, Rep.: 53% of population, 6.1% of populationColombia: 98.9% of population, 5.8% of populationComoros: 91.7% of population, 1.4% of populationCabo Verde: 98.4% of population, 3.1% of populationCosta Rica: 99.8% of population, 12.2% of populationCuracao: 100% of population, 43.1% of populationCayman Islands: 100% of population, 42.9% of populationCyprus: 100% of population, 14.9% of populationCzechia: 100% of population, 9.5% of populationGermany: 100% of population, 19.8% of populationDjibouti: 69.2% of population, 10.8% of populationDominica: 100% of population, 12.7% of populationDenmark: 100% of population, 14.2% of populationDominican Republic: 99.5% of population, 6.5% of populationAlgeria: 100% of population, 0.6% of populationEcuador: 98.5% of population, 4.1% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 100% of population, 1% of populationSpain: 100% of population, 18.5% of populationEstonia: 100% of population, 14.9% of populationEthiopia: 56.6% of population, 0.9% of populationFinland: 100% of population, 9.2% of populationFiji: 95.9% of population, 1.5% of populationFrance: 100% of population, 13.8% of populationFaroe Islands: 100% of population, 14.6% of populationMicronesia, Fed. Sts.: 88.9% of population, 2.6% of populationGabon: 95.1% of population, 17.7% of populationUnited Kingdom: 100% of population, 17.1% of populationGeorgia: 100% of population, 2.1% of populationGhana: 91.9% of population, 1.5% of populationGuinea: 53.8% of population, 0.8% of populationGambia, The: 69% of population, 8.6% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 43.7% of population, 0.7% of populationEquatorial Guinea: 65.1% of population, 13.2% of populationGreece: 100% of population, 14.2% of populationGrenada: 95.6% of population, 6.3% of populationGreenland: 100% of population, 10.4% of populationGuatemala: 90.9% of population, 0.5% of populationGuyana: 93% of population, 6.5% of populationHong Kong SAR, China: 100% of population, 41.3% of populationHonduras: 95.5% of population, 0.4% of populationCroatia: 100% of population, 13.6% of populationHaiti: 53.9% of population, 0.2% of populationHungary: 100% of population, 7.1% of populationIndonesia: 99.9% of population, 0.2% of populationIndia: 99.9% of population, 0.3% of populationIreland: 100% of population, 23.1% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 100% of population, 4.2% of populationIraq: 100% of population, 0.8% of populationIceland: 100% of population, 25.1% of populationIsrael: 100% of population, 22.3% of populationItaly: 100% of population, 11% of populationJamaica: 97.7% of population, 0.8% of populationJordan: 100% of population, 45.7% of populationJapan: 100% of population, 2.8% of populationKazakhstan: 100% of population, 10.1% of populationKenya: 77% of population, 1.8% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 100% of population, 2.7% of populationCambodia: 99.2% of population, 0.5% of populationKiribati: 97.7% of population, 2.5% of populationSt. Kitts and Nevis: 100% of population, 17% of populationKorea, Rep.: 100% of population, 3.5% of populationKuwait: 100% of population, 67.3% of populationLao PDR: 96.5% of population, 0.7% of populationLebanon: 100% of population, 24.5% of populationLiberia: 34.9% of population, 1.3% of populationLibya: 77.4% of population, 12.2% of populationSt. Lucia: 100% of population, 4.5% of populationSri Lanka: 100% of population, 0.2% of populationLesotho: 60.6% of population, 0.6% of populationLithuania: 100% of population, 6.1% of populationLuxembourg: 100% of population, 51.2% of populationLatvia: 100% of population, 11.8% of populationMacao SAR, China: 100% of population, 59.3% of populationMorocco: 100% of population, 0.3% of populationMoldova: 100% of population, 6.2% of populationMadagascar: 42.5% of population, 0.1% of populationMaldives: 100% of population, 14.2% of populationMexico: 99.8% of population, 1.3% of populationMarshall Islands: 97.2% of population, 8.8% of populationNorth Macedonia: 100% of population, 8.3% of populationMali: 49.5% of population, 2.2% of populationMalta: 100% of population, 37% of populationMyanmar: 80.4% of population, 0.1% of populationMontenegro: 100% of population, 14.4% of populationMongolia: 99.1% of population, 0.6% of populationMozambique: 36.9% of population, 1% of populationMauritania: 52.2% of population, 3.8% of populationMauritius: 100% of population, 2.3% of populationMalawi: 15.6% of population, 0.9% of populationMalaysia: 100% of population, 10.7% of populationNamibia: 59.3% of population, 3.8% of populationNiger: 21.3% of population, 1.7% of populationNigeria: 62.5% of population, 0.6% of populationNicaragua: 88.7% of population, 0.6% of populationNetherlands: 100% of population, 16.2% of populationNorway: 100% of population, 18.2% of populationNepal: 97.9% of population, 1.6% of populationNaoero: 100% of population, 21.3% of populationNew Zealand: 100% of population, 28.2% of populationOman: 100% of population, 43.2% of populationPakistan: 95.7% of population, 1.7% of populationPanama: 96% of population, 10.6% of populationPeru: 96.5% of population, 5.4% of populationPhilippines: 94.8% of population, 0.1% of populationPalau: 100% of population, 29.5% of populationPapua New Guinea: 43.3% of population, 0.3% of populationPoland: 100% of population, 4.5% of populationPuerto Rico (US): 100% of population, 6.9% of populationPortugal: 100% of population, 10.8% of populationParaguay: 99.8% of population, 2.6% of populationWest Bank and Gaza: 100% of population, 5% of populationQatar: 100% of population, 76.7% of populationRomania: 100% of population, 3.4% of populationRussian Federation: 100% of population, 5.3% of populationRwanda: 72% of population, 3.6% of populationSaudi Arabia: 100% of population, 40.3% of populationSudan: 66% of population, 4.8% of populationSenegal: 82.9% of population, 1.5% of populationSingapore: 100% of population, 48.7% of populationSolomon Islands: 81.5% of population, 0.3% of populationSierra Leone: 39.2% of population, 0.6% of populationEl Salvador: 98.7% of population, 0.7% of populationSan Marino: 100% of population, 17.4% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 54.4% of population, 0.4% of populationSerbia: 100% of population, 10.6% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 77.7% of population, 0.8% of populationSuriname: 99% of population, 8.2% of populationSlovak Republic: 100% of population, 5.9% of populationSlovenia: 100% of population, 14.9% of populationSweden: 100% of population, 21.4% of populationEswatini: 89.3% of population, 2.7% of populationSint Maarten (Dutch part): 100% of population, 69.5% of populationSeychelles: 100% of population, 10.2% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 89.3% of population, 3.6% of populationTurks and Caicos Islands: 100% of population, 61.1% of populationChad: 13.4% of population, 6.3% of populationTogo: 61.1% of population, 3% of populationThailand: 100% of population, 4.4% of populationTajikistan: 99.9% of population, 2.6% of populationTurkmenistan: 100% of population, 2.6% of populationTimor-Leste: 94.3% of population, 0.6% of populationTonga: 100% of population, 3.4% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 100% of population, 7.5% of populationTunisia: 100% of population, 0.5% of populationTurkiye: 100% of population, 8.1% of populationTuvalu: 100% of population, 2.6% of populationTanzania: 52.4% of population, 0.7% of populationUganda: 55.3% of population, 4.1% of populationUkraine: 100% of population, 13.4% of populationUruguay: 100% of population, 4.7% of populationUnited States: 100% of population, 15.2% of populationUzbekistan: 100% of population, 3.2% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 100% of population, 4.8% of populationVirgin Islands (U.S.): 100% of population, 66.9% of populationViet Nam: 100% of population, 0.3% of populationVanuatu: 65.5% of population, 1% of populationSamoa: 100% of population, 1.8% of populationSouth Africa: 90.2% of population, 4.1% of populationZambia: 53.6% of population, 1.2% of populationZimbabwe: 62% of population, 2.6% of populationARECAFCHNIDNLKAMWIQATSXMTCD

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.3061.1e-5198
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.5757.6e-19198
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2100.003198
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.0150.839198

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 198 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.096 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.233 (without JOR) to -0.199 (without QAT). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: JOR (-0.022).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific31-0.14
Europe & Central Asia52-0.21
Latin America & Caribbean38-0.14
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan22-0.09
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.12

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third66-0.13
Middle third66-0.02
Richest third66+0.17

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians112-0.22
Muslims49-0.26

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25-0.22
Never a European colony21-0.18
Spain20-0.68
United Kingdom63-0.15

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.047 after dropping 57 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 35years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = -0.175) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = —). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.210for comparison
Within countries+0.012each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.175q = 1.0e-5 · 212 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

1,512 country-years (one country in one year), 212 countries, 1990–2024, about 7 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 11% for Electricity access, 4% for Migrant share of population. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Migrant share of population trails Electricity access →lag -10: r = -0.101 (n = 1,055)lag -9: r = -0.134 (n = 1,231)lag -8: r = -0.132 (n = 1,225)lag -7: r = -0.128 (n = 1,219)lag -6: r = -0.124 (n = 1,208)lag -5: r = -0.127 (n = 1,199)lag -4: r = -0.171 (n = 1,368)lag -3: r = -0.165 (n = 1,356)lag -2: r = -0.158 (n = 1,341)lag -1: r = -0.150 (n = 1,316)lag +0: r = -0.175 (n = 1,512)lag +1: r = -0.204 (n = 1,368)lag +2: r = -0.199 (n = 1,356)lag +3: r = -0.192 (n = 1,341)lag +4: r = -0.180 (n = 1,316)lag +5: r = -0.166 (n = 1,296)lag +6: r = -0.202 (n = 992)lag +7: r = -0.197 (n = 956)lag +8: r = -0.190 (n = 917)lag +9: r = -0.177 (n = 873)lag +10: r = -0.158 (n = 817)

Same year (lag 0): -0.175. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of population
% of population		Years
Samoa WSM100%1.8%2024
Viet Nam VNM100%0.3%2024
Virgin Islands (U.S.) VIR100%66.9%2024
St. Vincent and the Grenadines VCT100%4.8%2024
Uzbekistan UZB100%3.2%2024
United States USA100%15.2%2024
Uruguay URY100%4.7%2024
Ukraine UKR100%13.4%2024
Tuvalu TUV100%2.6%2024
Turkiye TUR100%8.1%2024
Tunisia TUN100%0.5%2024
Trinidad and Tobago TTO100%7.5%2024
Tonga TON100%3.4%2024
Turkmenistan TKM100%2.6%2024
Thailand THA100%4.4%2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Electricity access

Access to electricity (% of population)

World Bank · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Migrant share of population

International migrant stock (% of population)

UN Population Division, International Migrant Stock · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

People living outside the country they were born in, as a share of the population. It counts people at one moment, while the net migration already on the site counts moves over a year. Published every five years until 2020, and for 2024.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Electricity access and Migrant share of population

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Electricity access changes Migrant share of population, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Electricity access or Migrant share of population