placestats

Electoral democracy vs. Informal employment

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 127 countries, Electoral democracy and Informal employment rise and fall together at r = -0.67 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.17, which could easily be chance (q = 0.35, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of informal employment, 12.7% to 85.6% of employment, electoral democracy is worse by 0.34 points at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.14 points.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.665p = 1.4e-17 · 127 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.172p = 0.054 · likely range [-0.34, +0.00]
p, allowing for regions0.086standard error 0.080 · 6 regions
Check for luck (q)0.347across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Electoral democracy · index (0-1)link with income +0.49 · moderate
Informal employment · % of employmentlink with income -0.88 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Electoral democracy · index (0-1) →Informal employment · % of employment →0.0690.9130.63%98.5%Afghanistan: 0.069 index (0-1), 86.1% of employmentAngola: 0.344 index (0-1), 95.3% of employmentArgentina: 0.69 index (0-1), 51.6% of employmentArmenia: 0.614 index (0-1), 76.1% of employmentAustria: 0.839 index (0-1), 1.32% of employmentBurundi: 0.185 index (0-1), 98% of employmentBelgium: 0.889 index (0-1), 1.37% of employmentBenin: 0.493 index (0-1), 96.3% of employmentBurkina Faso: 0.134 index (0-1), 93.8% of employmentBangladesh: 0.195 index (0-1), 84% of employmentBulgaria: 0.599 index (0-1), 1.2% of employmentBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.498 index (0-1), 16.6% of employmentBolivia: 0.605 index (0-1), 83.9% of employmentBrazil: 0.784 index (0-1), 35.6% of employmentBarbados: 0.797 index (0-1), 61.8% of employmentBotswana: 0.665 index (0-1), 75.6% of employmentSwitzerland: 0.882 index (0-1), 1.48% of employmentChile: 0.839 index (0-1), 26.4% of employmentCote d'Ivoire: 0.394 index (0-1), 92.1% of employmentCameroon: 0.26 index (0-1), 87.1% of employmentCongo, Dem. Rep.: 0.306 index (0-1), 96.3% of employmentColombia: 0.679 index (0-1), 56% of employmentComoros: 0.293 index (0-1), 88.8% of employmentCabo Verde: 0.745 index (0-1), 60.6% of employmentCosta Rica: 0.862 index (0-1), 36.1% of employmentCyprus: 0.773 index (0-1), 1.68% of employmentCzechia: 0.849 index (0-1), 2.26% of employmentGermany: 0.828 index (0-1), 2.49% of employmentDjibouti: 0.25 index (0-1), 47.6% of employmentDenmark: 0.913 index (0-1), 2.82% of employmentDominican Republic: 0.735 index (0-1), 54.7% of employmentEcuador: 0.607 index (0-1), 68.5% of employmentEgypt, Arab Rep.: 0.187 index (0-1), 68.6% of employmentSpain: 0.822 index (0-1), 2.2% of employmentEstonia: 0.887 index (0-1), 2.4% of employmentEthiopia: 0.257 index (0-1), 77.7% of employmentFinland: 0.852 index (0-1), 2.19% of employmentFiji: 0.507 index (0-1), 45.7% of employmentFrance: 0.865 index (0-1), 3.15% of employmentUnited Kingdom: 0.772 index (0-1), 6.51% of employmentGeorgia: 0.401 index (0-1), 51.5% of employmentGhana: 0.711 index (0-1), 78% of employmentGambia, The: 0.641 index (0-1), 83.9% of employmentGuinea-Bissau: 0.252 index (0-1), 94.8% of employmentGreece: 0.741 index (0-1), 3.58% of employmentGuatemala: 0.637 index (0-1), 75.9% of employmentGuyana: 0.515 index (0-1), 51% of employmentHonduras: 0.511 index (0-1), 82.6% of employmentCroatia: 0.686 index (0-1), 1.17% of employmentHaiti: 0.238 index (0-1), 91.6% of employmentHungary: 0.421 index (0-1), 1.31% of employmentIndonesia: 0.462 index (0-1), 81% of employmentIndia: 0.377 index (0-1), 88.1% of employmentIreland: 0.887 index (0-1), 1.9% of employmentIraq: 0.369 index (0-1), 67.6% of employmentIceland: 0.807 index (0-1), 1.97% of employmentItaly: 0.745 index (0-1), 3.42% of employmentJamaica: 0.805 index (0-1), 54.6% of employmentJordan: 0.282 index (0-1), 55.1% of employmentKenya: 0.563 index (0-1), 86.5% of employmentKyrgyz Republic: 0.313 index (0-1), 57.5% of employmentCambodia: 0.183 index (0-1), 89.4% of employmentKorea, Rep.: 0.819 index (0-1), 29.1% of employmentLao PDR: 0.135 index (0-1), 90.5% of employmentLebanon: 0.419 index (0-1), 55.5% of employmentLiberia: 0.597 index (0-1), 89.3% of employmentSri Lanka: 0.783 index (0-1), 67.6% of employmentLesotho: 0.661 index (0-1), 89.1% of employmentLithuania: 0.786 index (0-1), 3.2% of employmentLuxembourg: 0.869 index (0-1), 1.93% of employmentLatvia: 0.834 index (0-1), 2.17% of employmentMoldova: 0.553 index (0-1), 52.2% of employmentMadagascar: 0.361 index (0-1), 96.1% of employmentMaldives: 0.556 index (0-1), 47.3% of employmentMexico: 0.469 index (0-1), 56.4% of employmentNorth Macedonia: 0.562 index (0-1), 11.1% of employmentMali: 0.164 index (0-1), 94.4% of employmentMalta: 0.783 index (0-1), 0.63% of employmentMyanmar: 0.08 index (0-1), 80.7% of employmentMongolia: 0.535 index (0-1), 27.1% of employmentMozambique: 0.279 index (0-1), 95.5% of employmentMauritania: 0.328 index (0-1), 89.3% of employmentMauritius: 0.738 index (0-1), 23.4% of employmentMalawi: 0.557 index (0-1), 92.7% of employmentNamibia: 0.633 index (0-1), 55.6% of employmentNiger: 0.227 index (0-1), 98.5% of employmentNigeria: 0.505 index (0-1), 93.1% of employmentNicaragua: 0.151 index (0-1), 81.8% of employmentNetherlands: 0.832 index (0-1), 2.63% of employmentNorway: 0.89 index (0-1), 1.43% of employmentNepal: 0.656 index (0-1), 81.5% of employmentPakistan: 0.302 index (0-1), 88.7% of employmentPanama: 0.728 index (0-1), 58.7% of employmentPeru: 0.667 index (0-1), 70.5% of employmentPoland: 0.768 index (0-1), 8.62% of employmentPortugal: 0.822 index (0-1), 4.73% of employmentParaguay: 0.581 index (0-1), 64.5% of employmentRomania: 0.605 index (0-1), 2.21% of employmentRussian Federation: 0.17 index (0-1), 19.3% of employmentRwanda: 0.193 index (0-1), 84.3% of employmentSudan: 0.13 index (0-1), 94.2% of employmentSenegal: 0.633 index (0-1), 89.2% of employmentSierra Leone: 0.471 index (0-1), 93.1% of employmentEl Salvador: 0.321 index (0-1), 64% of employmentSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 0.165 index (0-1), 81.9% of employmentSerbia: 0.3 index (0-1), 17.8% of employmentSuriname: 0.781 index (0-1), 50.9% of employmentSlovak Republic: 0.733 index (0-1), 4.37% of employmentSlovenia: 0.692 index (0-1), 0.7% of employmentSweden: 0.889 index (0-1), 2.83% of employmentEswatini: 0.128 index (0-1), 53.3% of employmentSeychelles: 0.76 index (0-1), 14.2% of employmentChad: 0.242 index (0-1), 96.9% of employmentTogo: 0.351 index (0-1), 92.3% of employmentThailand: 0.424 index (0-1), 63.2% of employmentTajikistan: 0.158 index (0-1), 63.6% of employmentTimor-Leste: 0.736 index (0-1), 80.6% of employmentTunisia: 0.395 index (0-1), 36.9% of employmentTurkiye: 0.293 index (0-1), 27.7% of employmentTanzania: 0.365 index (0-1), 90.8% of employmentUganda: 0.253 index (0-1), 94.5% of employmentUruguay: 0.862 index (0-1), 28.5% of employmentViet Nam: 0.146 index (0-1), 67% of employmentVanuatu: 0.729 index (0-1), 72.4% of employmentSouth Africa: 0.743 index (0-1), 34.8% of employmentZambia: 0.497 index (0-1), 82.7% of employmentZimbabwe: 0.268 index (0-1), 85% of employmentAFGBELBFADNKHUNLSONORRUSSDNSENSRBTLS

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.6651.4e-17127
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.6838.9e-19127
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.1720.054127
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.0990.269127

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 127 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.493 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.192 (without HUN) to -0.141 (without GUY). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: GUY (+0.031).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
Europe & Central Asia40-0.16
Latin America & Caribbean22-0.53
Sub-Saharan Africa40-0.20

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third43+0.03
Middle third42-0.02
Richest third42-0.19

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians84-0.14
Muslims29+0.17

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France19-0.10
Never a European colony12+0.26
Spain16-0.15
United Kingdom33-0.25

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.172 after dropping 0 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 26years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.179, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose electoral democracy moved did not tend to see their informal employment move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.172for comparison
Within countries+0.297each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.179q = 0.231 · 78 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.004q = 0.965
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

1,153 country-years (one country in one year), 78 countries, 2000–2025, about 15 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 2% for Electoral democracy, 7% for Informal employment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Informal employment trails Electoral democracy →lag -10: r = -0.049 (n = 520)lag -9: r = -0.069 (n = 583)lag -8: r = -0.015 (n = 655)lag -7: r = -0.002 (n = 727)lag -6: r = 0.041 (n = 800)lag -5: r = 0.069 (n = 861)lag -4: r = 0.087 (n = 936)lag -3: r = 0.105 (n = 1,011)lag -2: r = 0.118 (n = 1,085)lag -1: r = 0.133 (n = 1,145)lag +0: r = 0.179 (n = 1,153)lag +1: r = 0.189 (n = 1,153)lag +2: r = 0.160 (n = 1,153)lag +3: r = 0.125 (n = 1,153)lag +4: r = 0.084 (n = 1,153)lag +5: r = 0.026 (n = 1,153)lag +6: r = -0.027 (n = 1,153)lag +7: r = -0.089 (n = 1,153)lag +8: r = -0.158 (n = 1,153)lag +9: r = -0.204 (n = 1,153)lag +10: r = -0.204 (n = 1,153)

Same year (lag 0): +0.179. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


index (0-1)
% of employment		Years
Denmark DNK0.9132.82%2025, 2019
Norway NOR0.891.43%2025, 2024
Sweden SWE0.8892.83%2025, 2024
Belgium BEL0.8891.37%2025, 2024
Ireland IRL0.8871.9%2025, 2024
Estonia EST0.8872.4%2025, 2024
Switzerland CHE0.8821.48%2025, 2024
Luxembourg LUX0.8691.93%2025, 2024
France FRA0.8653.15%2025, 2024
Uruguay URY0.86228.5%2025, 2024
Costa Rica CRI0.86236.1%2025
Finland FIN0.8522.19%2025, 2024
Czechia CZE0.8492.26%2025, 2024
Chile CHL0.83926.4%2025
Austria AUT0.8391.32%2025, 2024

Coppedge, M. et al., V-Dem Dataset, Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project
United Nations Global SDG Indicators Database; series compiled by the International Labour Organization (8.3.1) and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (16.3.2)

Sources

Electoral democracy

Electoral democracy index (polyarchy)

V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 · updated annual

Based on political scientist Robert Dahl's idea of "polyarchy": are leaders chosen in free and fair elections, with freedom of speech, freedom to form groups, and the vote for nearly all adults? It is the base index that most other V-Dem measures are built on.

Informal employment

Share of employment that is informal

International Labour Organization · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

Workers with no contract, no social protection or no registered employer, as the ILO (the UN's labour agency) makes them comparable across national labour force surveys. The World Bank's copy of this series was retired, so it comes from the UN's database for the Sustainable Development Goals.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 6 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Electoral democracy and Informal employment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Electoral democracy changes Informal employment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Electoral democracy or Informal employment