placestats

Education score vs. PISA maths

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 86 countries, Education score and PISA maths rise and fall together at r = +0.71 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.39 (q = 0.031, allowing for the many pairs tested). Much of the first figure is that both measures rise with national income, but a weak positive link remains.

Comparing countries across the middle half of pisa maths, 389 to 483 PISA points, education score is better by 0.317 typical gaps at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.206 typical gaps.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.708p = 2.5e-14 · 86 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.395p = 0.000 · likely range [+0.20, +0.56]
p, allowing for regions0.021standard error 0.107 · 5 regions
Check for luck (q)0.031across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Education score · typical gaps (standard deviations)link with income +0.81 · proxy
PISA maths · PISA pointslink with income +0.79 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Education score · typical gaps (standard deviations) →PISA maths · PISA points →0.0881.44336575Albania: 0.923 typical gaps (standard deviations), 368 PISA pointsUnited Arab Emirates: 0.911 typical gaps (standard deviations), 431 PISA pointsArgentina: 1.03 typical gaps (standard deviations), 378 PISA pointsAustralia: 1.03 typical gaps (standard deviations), 487 PISA pointsAustria: 1 typical gaps (standard deviations), 487 PISA pointsBelgium: 1.25 typical gaps (standard deviations), 489 PISA pointsBulgaria: 0.794 typical gaps (standard deviations), 417 PISA pointsBosnia and Herzegovina: 0.607 typical gaps (standard deviations), 406 PISA pointsBelarus: 0.722 typical gaps (standard deviations), 472 PISA pointsBrazil: 0.731 typical gaps (standard deviations), 379 PISA pointsBrunei Darussalam: 0.499 typical gaps (standard deviations), 442 PISA pointsCanada: 1.06 typical gaps (standard deviations), 497 PISA pointsSwitzerland: 0.92 typical gaps (standard deviations), 508 PISA pointsChile: 0.979 typical gaps (standard deviations), 412 PISA pointsColombia: 0.63 typical gaps (standard deviations), 383 PISA pointsCosta Rica: 0.629 typical gaps (standard deviations), 385 PISA pointsCyprus: 1.02 typical gaps (standard deviations), 418 PISA pointsCzechia: 1.08 typical gaps (standard deviations), 487 PISA pointsGermany: 0.938 typical gaps (standard deviations), 475 PISA pointsDenmark: 0.941 typical gaps (standard deviations), 489 PISA pointsDominican Republic: 0.651 typical gaps (standard deviations), 339 PISA pointsAlgeria: 0.663 typical gaps (standard deviations), 360 PISA pointsSpain: 0.983 typical gaps (standard deviations), 473 PISA pointsEstonia: 0.841 typical gaps (standard deviations), 510 PISA pointsFinland: 1.02 typical gaps (standard deviations), 484 PISA pointsFrance: 0.907 typical gaps (standard deviations), 474 PISA pointsUnited Kingdom: 1.19 typical gaps (standard deviations), 489 PISA pointsGeorgia: 0.697 typical gaps (standard deviations), 390 PISA pointsGreece: 1.31 typical gaps (standard deviations), 430 PISA pointsGuatemala: 0.22 typical gaps (standard deviations), 344 PISA pointsHong Kong SAR, China: 1.34 typical gaps (standard deviations), 540 PISA pointsCroatia: 0.985 typical gaps (standard deviations), 463 PISA pointsHungary: 0.83 typical gaps (standard deviations), 473 PISA pointsIndonesia: 0.591 typical gaps (standard deviations), 366 PISA pointsIreland: 1.18 typical gaps (standard deviations), 492 PISA pointsIceland: 1.26 typical gaps (standard deviations), 459 PISA pointsIsrael: 0.804 typical gaps (standard deviations), 458 PISA pointsItaly: 0.94 typical gaps (standard deviations), 471 PISA pointsJamaica: 0.446 typical gaps (standard deviations), 377 PISA pointsJordan: 0.68 typical gaps (standard deviations), 361 PISA pointsJapan: 1.04 typical gaps (standard deviations), 536 PISA pointsKazakhstan: 0.74 typical gaps (standard deviations), 425 PISA pointsCambodia: 0.174 typical gaps (standard deviations), 336 PISA pointsKorea, Rep.: 1.03 typical gaps (standard deviations), 527 PISA pointsLebanon: 0.088 typical gaps (standard deviations), 393 PISA pointsLithuania: 0.928 typical gaps (standard deviations), 475 PISA pointsLuxembourg: 0.66 typical gaps (standard deviations), 483 PISA pointsLatvia: 0.923 typical gaps (standard deviations), 483 PISA pointsMacao SAR, China: 0.965 typical gaps (standard deviations), 552 PISA pointsMorocco: 0.345 typical gaps (standard deviations), 365 PISA pointsMoldova: 0.734 typical gaps (standard deviations), 414 PISA pointsMexico: 0.636 typical gaps (standard deviations), 395 PISA pointsNorth Macedonia: 0.658 typical gaps (standard deviations), 389 PISA pointsMalta: 0.945 typical gaps (standard deviations), 466 PISA pointsMontenegro: 0.943 typical gaps (standard deviations), 406 PISA pointsMongolia: 0.749 typical gaps (standard deviations), 425 PISA pointsMalaysia: 0.529 typical gaps (standard deviations), 409 PISA pointsNetherlands: 1.27 typical gaps (standard deviations), 493 PISA pointsNorway: 1 typical gaps (standard deviations), 468 PISA pointsNew Zealand: 1.44 typical gaps (standard deviations), 479 PISA pointsPanama: 0.393 typical gaps (standard deviations), 357 PISA pointsPeru: 0.773 typical gaps (standard deviations), 391 PISA pointsPhilippines: 0.548 typical gaps (standard deviations), 355 PISA pointsPoland: 0.952 typical gaps (standard deviations), 489 PISA pointsPortugal: 1.02 typical gaps (standard deviations), 472 PISA pointsParaguay: 0.452 typical gaps (standard deviations), 338 PISA pointsWest Bank and Gaza: 0.564 typical gaps (standard deviations), 366 PISA pointsQatar: 0.734 typical gaps (standard deviations), 414 PISA pointsRomania: 0.584 typical gaps (standard deviations), 428 PISA pointsRussian Federation: 0.85 typical gaps (standard deviations), 488 PISA pointsSaudi Arabia: 0.8 typical gaps (standard deviations), 389 PISA pointsSingapore: 1.26 typical gaps (standard deviations), 575 PISA pointsEl Salvador: 0.37 typical gaps (standard deviations), 343 PISA pointsSerbia: 0.761 typical gaps (standard deviations), 440 PISA pointsSlovak Republic: 0.801 typical gaps (standard deviations), 464 PISA pointsSlovenia: 1.18 typical gaps (standard deviations), 485 PISA pointsSweden: 0.968 typical gaps (standard deviations), 482 PISA pointsThailand: 0.764 typical gaps (standard deviations), 394 PISA pointsTrinidad and Tobago: 0.581 typical gaps (standard deviations), 417 PISA pointsTunisia: 0.496 typical gaps (standard deviations), 367 PISA pointsTurkiye: 1.03 typical gaps (standard deviations), 453 PISA pointsUkraine: 0.784 typical gaps (standard deviations), 441 PISA pointsUruguay: 0.9 typical gaps (standard deviations), 409 PISA pointsUnited States: 1.11 typical gaps (standard deviations), 465 PISA pointsUzbekistan: 0.848 typical gaps (standard deviations), 364 PISA pointsViet Nam: 0.537 typical gaps (standard deviations), 469 PISA pointsALBARGGRCGTMHKGKHMLBNMACNZLSGPVNM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.7082.5e-1486
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.7272.3e-1586
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.3950.00086
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4186.9e-586

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 86 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.313 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.353 (without PAN) to +0.432 (without LBN). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: PAN (-0.041).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific15+0.51
Europe & Central Asia43+0.12
Latin America & Caribbean15+0.51

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third29+0.22
Middle third28+0.29
Richest third29+0.56

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians55+0.37
Muslims17-0.09

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Spain14+0.64
United Kingdom14+0.61

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.432 after dropping 1 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


typical gaps (standard deviations)
PISA points		Years
New Zealand NZL1.444792023, 2022
Hong Kong SAR, China HKG1.345402024, 2022
Greece GRC1.314302023, 2022
Netherlands NLD1.274932023, 2022
Iceland ISL1.264592023, 2022
Singapore SGP1.265752023, 2022
Belgium BEL1.254892023, 2022
United Kingdom GBR1.194892023, 2022
Ireland IRL1.184922022
Slovenia SVN1.184852023, 2022
United States USA1.114652022
Czechia CZE1.084872023, 2022
Canada CAN1.064972023, 2022
Japan JPN1.045362023, 2022
Argentina ARG1.033782023, 2022

uis; undp_hdr; wdi
OECD databases as named on each indicator: PISA, Social Expenditure Database (SOCX), Income Distribution Database, Development Assistance Committee statistics, Family Database, Government at a Glance, Corporate Tax Statistics, employment and environment statistics

Sources

Education score

Education score

PlaceStats · via PlaceStats · Derived work; each member keeps its own licence · updated recomputed with the panel

The average of 10 measures from 3 publishers. Each measure is first put on a common scale: 0 is the average country in an average year, and 1 is a typical gap between countries (a standard deviation). Each is turned so that higher is better. Measures are averaged within each publisher first, so a publisher with many measures does not count for more. Members: Primary completion, Expected schooling, Mean years of schooling, Adult literacy, Pupil-teacher ratio, Primary enrollment, Out of school, primary, Secondary enrollment, Tertiary enrollment, Researchers.

PISA maths

PISA mean mathematics score

OECD · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 (OECD terms and conditions) · updated annual, except the snapshots noted per indicator

The average score of 15-year-olds on the same test in every country taking part. It is scaled so the OECD average in the starting year was 500, with a standard deviation (a typical gap between students) of 100. Held every three years. The 2021 round was held in 2022, and the OECD says it can still be compared with earlier rounds despite the pandemic. The three subjects are treated as measuring the same thing. Their links with each other are above 0.95, and that close match is a fact about the test, not about schooling.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2015–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 5 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Education score and PISA maths

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Education score changes PISA maths, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Education score or PISA maths