placestats

DTP3 immunisation vs. Undernourishment

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 161 countries, DTP3 immunisation and Undernourishment rise and fall together at r = -0.51 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.22, which could easily be chance (q = 0.11, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of dtp3 immunisation, 80% to 96% of children aged 12-23 months, undernourishment is better by 6.66% of population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 2.29% of population.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.512p = 3.7e-12 · 161 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.219p = 0.005 · likely range [-0.36, -0.07]
p, allowing for regions0.022standard error 0.072 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.114across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

DTP3 immunisation · % of children aged 12-23 monthslink with income +0.53 · moderate
Undernourishment · % of populationlink with income -0.83 · proxy

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

DTP3 immunisation · % of children aged 12-23 months →Undernourishment · % of population →39%99%2.5%54.2%Afghanistan: 59% of children aged 12-23 months, 28.1% of populationAngola: 64% of children aged 12-23 months, 22.5% of populationAlbania: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.4% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationArgentina: 75% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.4% of populationArmenia: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationAustralia: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationAustria: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationAzerbaijan: 51% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationBelgium: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationBenin: 63% of children aged 12-23 months, 14.3% of populationBurkina Faso: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 13.1% of populationBangladesh: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 10.4% of populationBulgaria: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 79% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationBelarus: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationBelize: 88% of children aged 12-23 months, 7% of populationBolivia: 59% of children aged 12-23 months, 21.8% of populationBrazil: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationBarbados: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.4% of populationBotswana: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 24% of populationCentral African Republic: 42% of children aged 12-23 months, 29.8% of populationCanada: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationSwitzerland: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationChile: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationChina: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 77% of children aged 12-23 months, 11.1% of populationCameroon: 77% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.8% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 65% of children aged 12-23 months, 38.5% of populationCongo, Rep.: 78% of children aged 12-23 months, 26.4% of populationColombia: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.9% of populationComoros: 75% of children aged 12-23 months, 15.4% of populationCabo Verde: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 13.5% of populationCosta Rica: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationCyprus: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationCzechia: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationGermany: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationDjibouti: 77% of children aged 12-23 months, 12.9% of populationDominica: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.6% of populationDenmark: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationDominican Republic: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.6% of populationAlgeria: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationEcuador: 70% of children aged 12-23 months, 12.1% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 9.4% of populationSpain: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationEstonia: 81% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationEthiopia: 73% of children aged 12-23 months, 19.7% of populationFinland: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationFiji: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.8% of populationFrance: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationGabon: 61% of children aged 12-23 months, 25.3% of populationUnited Kingdom: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationGeorgia: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationGhana: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.3% of populationGuinea: 63% of children aged 12-23 months, 11.4% of populationGambia, The: 80% of children aged 12-23 months, 16.8% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 68% of children aged 12-23 months, 22.1% of populationGreece: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationGuatemala: 81% of children aged 12-23 months, 11.8% of populationGuyana: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationHonduras: 75% of children aged 12-23 months, 14.8% of populationCroatia: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationHaiti: 60% of children aged 12-23 months, 54.2% of populationHungary: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationIndonesia: 78% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.3% of populationIndia: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 12% of populationIreland: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.8% of populationIraq: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 14.9% of populationIceland: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationIsrael: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationItaly: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationJamaica: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.7% of populationJordan: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 14.3% of populationKazakhstan: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationKenya: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 36.8% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.1% of populationCambodia: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.2% of populationKiribati: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.1% of populationKorea, Rep.: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationKuwait: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationLebanon: 49% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.7% of populationLiberia: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 35.5% of populationLibya: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 16.5% of populationSri Lanka: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.4% of populationLithuania: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationLuxembourg: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationLatvia: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationMorocco: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 7% of populationMoldova: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationMadagascar: 60% of children aged 12-23 months, 39.5% of populationMexico: 78% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.7% of populationNorth Macedonia: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationMali: 82% of children aged 12-23 months, 12.3% of populationMalta: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationMyanmar: 71% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.4% of populationMontenegro: 81% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationMongolia: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationMozambique: 70% of children aged 12-23 months, 21.8% of populationMauritania: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.7% of populationMauritius: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.7% of populationMalawi: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 21.4% of populationMalaysia: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationNamibia: 74% of children aged 12-23 months, 18.1% of populationNiger: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 12.9% of populationNigeria: 67% of children aged 12-23 months, 19.9% of populationNicaragua: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 17.3% of populationNetherlands: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationNorway: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationNepal: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.3% of populationNew Zealand: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationOman: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.9% of populationPakistan: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 16.5% of populationPanama: 72% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.7% of populationPeru: 80% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.9% of populationPhilippines: 71% of children aged 12-23 months, 3% of populationPapua New Guinea: 42% of children aged 12-23 months, 28.7% of populationPoland: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationPortugal: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationParaguay: 80% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.2% of populationRomania: 79% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationRussian Federation: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationRwanda: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 24.4% of populationSaudi Arabia: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationSudan: 39% of children aged 12-23 months, 11% of populationSenegal: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.1% of populationSolomon Islands: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 20% of populationSierra Leone: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 24.1% of populationEl Salvador: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.7% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 70% of children aged 12-23 months, 53.2% of populationSerbia: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 17.4% of populationSuriname: 69% of children aged 12-23 months, 9.7% of populationSlovak Republic: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.1% of populationSlovenia: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationSweden: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationEswatini: 84% of children aged 12-23 months, 14.7% of populationSeychelles: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 73% of children aged 12-23 months, 39% of populationChad: 68% of children aged 12-23 months, 32% of populationTogo: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 9.1% of populationThailand: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.6% of populationTajikistan: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.4% of populationTurkmenistan: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.3% of populationTimor-Leste: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 18.7% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 11.2% of populationTunisia: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 3% of populationTurkiye: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationTanzania: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 20.2% of populationUganda: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 22% of populationUkraine: 88% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.9% of populationUruguay: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationUnited States: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationUzbekistan: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.5% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.1% of populationViet Nam: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.3% of populationVanuatu: 71% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.2% of populationSamoa: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.6% of populationSouth Africa: 74% of children aged 12-23 months, 10% of populationZambia: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 37.2% of populationZimbabwe: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 19.7% of populationAZECAFHTIKENLBNLUXPRTSDNSOMTURZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5123.7e-12161
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.5172.2e-12161
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2190.005161
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1510.056161

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 161 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.293 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.267 (without SDN) to -0.189 (without GAB). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SDN (-0.048).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific19-0.49
Europe & Central Asia48+0.29
Latin America & Caribbean26-0.44
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan19-0.16
Sub-Saharan Africa43-0.09

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third54-0.21
Middle third53-0.26
Richest third54-0.08

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians100-0.27
Muslims44-0.08

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24-0.51
Never a European colony20-0.16
Spain18-0.47
United Kingdom48-0.05

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.300 after dropping 13 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 23years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.121, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose dtp3 immunisation moved did not tend to see their undernourishment move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.219for comparison
Within countries-0.193each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.121q = 0.141 · 164 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.033q = 0.154

3,729 country-years (one country in one year), 164 countries, 2001–2023, about 23 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 24% for DTP3 immunisation, 13% for Undernourishment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Undernourishment trails DTP3 immunisation →lag -10: r = -0.010 (n = 2,273)lag -9: r = -0.022 (n = 2,435)lag -8: r = -0.040 (n = 2,597)lag -7: r = -0.059 (n = 2,764)lag -6: r = -0.086 (n = 2,927)lag -5: r = -0.104 (n = 3,089)lag -4: r = -0.114 (n = 3,250)lag -3: r = -0.113 (n = 3,411)lag -2: r = -0.109 (n = 3,571)lag -1: r = -0.114 (n = 3,731)lag +0: r = -0.121 (n = 3,729)lag +1: r = -0.125 (n = 3,727)lag +2: r = -0.132 (n = 3,725)lag +3: r = -0.126 (n = 3,721)lag +4: r = -0.116 (n = 3,717)lag +5: r = -0.113 (n = 3,713)lag +6: r = -0.112 (n = 3,709)lag +7: r = -0.127 (n = 3,705)lag +8: r = -0.141 (n = 3,700)lag +9: r = -0.160 (n = 3,692)lag +10: r = -0.165 (n = 3,666)

Same year (lag 0): -0.121. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

This curve peaks at the edge of the window (lag +10), so it is still drifting where the search stops. That pattern usually reflects a slow trend left over in the data, not a link with real timing. The peak value should not be read as the “true” link at the right lag.

The data


% of children aged 12-23 months
% of population		Years
St. Vincent and the Grenadines VCT99%6.1%2024, 2023
Turkiye TUR99%2.5%2024, 2023
Portugal PRT99%2.5%2024, 2023
Oman OMN99%5.9%2024, 2023
Luxembourg LUX99%2.5%2024, 2023
Kuwait KWT99%2.5%2024, 2023
Jamaica JAM99%7.7%2024, 2023
Hungary HUN99%2.5%2024, 2023
Costa Rica CRI99%2.5%2024, 2023
Turkmenistan TKM98%4.3%2024, 2023
Rwanda RWA98%24.4%2024, 2023
Kazakhstan KAZ98%2.5%2024, 2023
Israel ISR98%2.5%2024, 2023
Iran, Islamic Rep. IRN98%6.8%2024, 2023
Guyana GUY98%2.5%2024, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

DTP3 immunisation

Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months)

WHO and UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Three doses of the diphtheria, tetanus and whooping cough (pertussis) vaccine, the standard measure of a routine vaccination system. Measles coverage is published the same way and moves with it almost exactly, so only one of the two is here.

Undernourishment

Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)

Food and Agriculture Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Estimated from the food supply and how it is shared out, not by asking anyone. It is the FAO's model of how many people get less food energy than they need. The survey-based food insecurity measure below is treated as measuring the same thing. So their pair reads as two tools agreeing, not as a finding.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2021–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore DTP3 immunisation and Undernourishment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that DTP3 immunisation changes Undernourishment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with DTP3 immunisation or Undernourishment