placestats

DTP3 immunisation vs. Slum share of urban population

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 178 countries, DTP3 immunisation and Slum share of urban population rise and fall together at r = -0.52 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.25, which could easily be chance (q = 0.059, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of dtp3 immunisation, 80.3% to 96% of children aged 12-23 months, slum share of urban population is better by 16.1% of urban population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 6.14% of urban population.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.524p = 6.0e-14 · 178 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.254p = 0.001 · likely range [-0.39, -0.11]
p, allowing for regions0.007standard error 0.063 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.059across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

DTP3 immunisation · % of children aged 12-23 monthslink with income +0.53 · moderate
Slum share of urban population · % of urban populationlink with income -0.78 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

DTP3 immunisation · % of children aged 12-23 months →Slum share of urban population · % of urban population →39%99%0%92.5%Afghanistan: 59% of children aged 12-23 months, 71.6% of urban populationAngola: 64% of children aged 12-23 months, 62.7% of urban populationAlbania: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.7% of urban populationAndorra: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationUnited Arab Emirates: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.113% of urban populationArgentina: 75% of children aged 12-23 months, 14.5% of urban populationArmenia: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.39% of urban populationAntigua and Barbuda: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.65% of urban populationAustralia: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.035% of urban populationAustria: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.0466% of urban populationAzerbaijan: 51% of children aged 12-23 months, 26.9% of urban populationBurundi: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 36.8% of urban populationBelgium: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationBenin: 63% of children aged 12-23 months, 64% of urban populationBurkina Faso: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 87.9% of urban populationBangladesh: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 51.5% of urban populationBulgaria: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.197% of urban populationBahrain: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 79% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.313% of urban populationBelarus: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.004% of urban populationBelize: 88% of children aged 12-23 months, 15.7% of urban populationBolivia: 59% of children aged 12-23 months, 46.6% of urban populationBrazil: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 14.9% of urban populationBrunei Darussalam: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 21.6% of urban populationBhutan: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 44.7% of urban populationBotswana: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 39.6% of urban populationCentral African Republic: 42% of children aged 12-23 months, 68.9% of urban populationCanada: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.1% of urban populationSwitzerland: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationChile: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.32% of urban populationChina: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 26.3% of urban populationCote d'Ivoire: 77% of children aged 12-23 months, 48.3% of urban populationCameroon: 77% of children aged 12-23 months, 32.7% of urban populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 65% of children aged 12-23 months, 78.4% of urban populationCongo, Rep.: 78% of children aged 12-23 months, 75.3% of urban populationColombia: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 9.7% of urban populationComoros: 75% of children aged 12-23 months, 48.5% of urban populationCabo Verde: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 46.4% of urban populationCosta Rica: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.55% of urban populationCyprus: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.272% of urban populationCzechia: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.0273% of urban populationGermany: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationDjibouti: 77% of children aged 12-23 months, 48.7% of urban populationDenmark: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationDominican Republic: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 11.2% of urban populationAlgeria: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 13.2% of urban populationEcuador: 70% of children aged 12-23 months, 57.8% of urban populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.84% of urban populationSpain: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.046% of urban populationEstonia: 81% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.345% of urban populationEthiopia: 73% of children aged 12-23 months, 64.3% of urban populationFinland: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationFiji: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 9.4% of urban populationFrance: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationGabon: 61% of children aged 12-23 months, 38.8% of urban populationUnited Kingdom: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.163% of urban populationGeorgia: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.08% of urban populationGhana: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 33.5% of urban populationGuinea: 63% of children aged 12-23 months, 44% of urban populationGambia, The: 80% of children aged 12-23 months, 37.1% of urban populationGuinea-Bissau: 68% of children aged 12-23 months, 59% of urban populationEquatorial Guinea: 68% of children aged 12-23 months, 64.7% of urban populationGreece: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.05% of urban populationGuatemala: 81% of children aged 12-23 months, 37.6% of urban populationGuyana: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 11.3% of urban populationHonduras: 75% of children aged 12-23 months, 31.5% of urban populationCroatia: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.527% of urban populationHaiti: 60% of children aged 12-23 months, 51.1% of urban populationHungary: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.2% of urban populationIndonesia: 78% of children aged 12-23 months, 19.4% of urban populationIndia: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.41% of urban populationIreland: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.5% of urban populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 44.7% of urban populationIraq: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 49.3% of urban populationIceland: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationItaly: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.02% of urban populationJamaica: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.883% of urban populationJordan: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 23.4% of urban populationJapan: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2% of urban populationKazakhstan: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.794% of urban populationKenya: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 40.5% of urban populationKyrgyz Republic: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.44% of urban populationCambodia: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 42.3% of urban populationKiribati: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.93% of urban populationKorea, Rep.: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.5% of urban populationKuwait: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationLao PDR: 67% of children aged 12-23 months, 54.8% of urban populationLebanon: 49% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.53% of urban populationLiberia: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 60.5% of urban populationLibya: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 16.6% of urban populationSt. Lucia: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.441% of urban populationSri Lanka: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 44.7% of urban populationLesotho: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 25.6% of urban populationLithuania: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.509% of urban populationLuxembourg: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.0173% of urban populationLatvia: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.593% of urban populationMorocco: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 10.9% of urban populationMoldova: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 6.5% of urban populationMadagascar: 60% of children aged 12-23 months, 65.7% of urban populationMaldives: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 34.8% of urban populationMexico: 78% of children aged 12-23 months, 17.6% of urban populationMarshall Islands: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.38% of urban populationNorth Macedonia: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.278% of urban populationMali: 82% of children aged 12-23 months, 92.5% of urban populationMalta: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.0375% of urban populationMyanmar: 71% of children aged 12-23 months, 58.3% of urban populationMontenegro: 81% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.77% of urban populationMongolia: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 17.9% of urban populationMozambique: 70% of children aged 12-23 months, 55% of urban populationMauritania: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 58.6% of urban populationMauritius: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 48.7% of urban populationMalawi: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 38% of urban populationMalaysia: 93% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.2% of urban populationNamibia: 74% of children aged 12-23 months, 41.4% of urban populationNiger: 86% of children aged 12-23 months, 70.4% of urban populationNigeria: 67% of children aged 12-23 months, 48.5% of urban populationNicaragua: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 5.52% of urban populationNetherlands: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationNorway: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationNepal: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 40.1% of urban populationNaoero: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.597% of urban populationNew Zealand: 89% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationOman: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationPakistan: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 56% of urban populationPanama: 72% of children aged 12-23 months, 16.3% of urban populationPeru: 80% of children aged 12-23 months, 45.1% of urban populationPhilippines: 71% of children aged 12-23 months, 35.9% of urban populationPalau: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.618% of urban populationPapua New Guinea: 42% of children aged 12-23 months, 22.3% of urban populationPoland: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 4.22% of urban populationPortugal: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.059% of urban populationParaguay: 80% of children aged 12-23 months, 15.1% of urban populationWest Bank and Gaza: 88% of children aged 12-23 months, 19.5% of urban populationQatar: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationRomania: 79% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.52% of urban populationRussian Federation: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.62% of urban populationRwanda: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 38.3% of urban populationSaudi Arabia: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.55% of urban populationSudan: 39% of children aged 12-23 months, 73.7% of urban populationSenegal: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 46.4% of urban populationSingapore: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 0% of urban populationSolomon Islands: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.95% of urban populationSierra Leone: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 49.3% of urban populationEl Salvador: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 16.5% of urban populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 70% of children aged 12-23 months, 48.7% of urban populationSerbia: 95% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.42% of urban populationSao Tome and Principe: 87% of children aged 12-23 months, 82.4% of urban populationSuriname: 69% of children aged 12-23 months, 15.8% of urban populationSlovak Republic: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.066% of urban populationSlovenia: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.527% of urban populationSweden: 96% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.336% of urban populationEswatini: 84% of children aged 12-23 months, 17% of urban populationSeychelles: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 48.7% of urban populationSyrian Arab Republic: 73% of children aged 12-23 months, 41.1% of urban populationChad: 68% of children aged 12-23 months, 82% of urban populationTogo: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 38.5% of urban populationThailand: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 2% of urban populationTajikistan: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.05% of urban populationTurkmenistan: 98% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.38% of urban populationTimor-Leste: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 33.9% of urban populationTonga: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.308% of urban populationTrinidad and Tobago: 92% of children aged 12-23 months, 8.63% of urban populationTunisia: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.64% of urban populationTurkiye: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 14.1% of urban populationTuvalu: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 50.9% of urban populationTanzania: 83% of children aged 12-23 months, 70.1% of urban populationUganda: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 52.7% of urban populationUkraine: 88% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.1% of urban populationUruguay: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 1.3% of urban populationUnited States: 94% of children aged 12-23 months, 0.0932% of urban populationUzbekistan: 90% of children aged 12-23 months, 7.1% of urban populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 99% of children aged 12-23 months, 2.76% of urban populationViet Nam: 97% of children aged 12-23 months, 32.5% of urban populationVanuatu: 71% of children aged 12-23 months, 3.06% of urban populationSamoa: 85% of children aged 12-23 months, 34.6% of urban populationSouth Africa: 74% of children aged 12-23 months, 24.2% of urban populationZambia: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 48.3% of urban populationZimbabwe: 91% of children aged 12-23 months, 54.9% of urban populationAFGAZEBFACAFKWTLBNLUXMLIOMNPNGSDNSTP

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5246.0e-14178
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.5389.5e-15178
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2540.001178
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2400.001178

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 178 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.271 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.291 (without LBN) to -0.237 (without GNQ). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: LBN (-0.037).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific28-0.30
Europe & Central Asia49-0.52
Latin America & Caribbean26-0.72
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan21+0.02
Sub-Saharan Africa46-0.25

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third60-0.26
Middle third59-0.30
Richest third59-0.04

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians104-0.37
Muslims49-0.07

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France25+0.17
Never a European colony21-0.35
Spain19-0.75
United Kingdom57-0.20

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.328 after dropping 5 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 23years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.088, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose dtp3 immunisation moved did not tend to see their slum share of urban population move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.254for comparison
Within countries-0.182each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.088q = 0.126 · 170 countries
Year-on-year changes—q = —
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

1,935 country-years (one country in one year), 170 countries, 2000–2022, about 11 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 23% for DTP3 immunisation, 9% for Slum share of urban population. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-100+10years Slum share of urban population trails DTP3 immunisation →lag -10: r = 0.130 (n = 1,277)lag -9: r = 0.127 (n = 1,278)lag -8: r = 0.107 (n = 1,440)lag -7: r = 0.073 (n = 1,441)lag -6: r = 0.084 (n = 1,606)lag -5: r = 0.049 (n = 1,606)lag -4: r = 0.042 (n = 1,764)lag -3: r = 0.003 (n = 1,764)lag -2: r = -0.003 (n = 1,937)lag -1: r = -0.053 (n = 1,936)lag +0: r = -0.088 (n = 1,935)lag +1: r = -0.102 (n = 1,934)lag +2: r = -0.145 (n = 1,932)lag +3: r = -0.157 (n = 1,930)lag +4: r = -0.200 (n = 1,922)lag +5: r = -0.156 (n = 1,920)lag +6: r = -0.185 (n = 1,917)lag +7: r = -0.149 (n = 1,914)lag +8: r = -0.158 (n = 1,907)lag +9: r = -0.147 (n = 1,885)lag +10: r = -0.137 (n = 1,876)

Same year (lag 0): -0.088. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.20 at lag +4) is higher than the same-year one by 0.11. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 21 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


% of children aged 12-23 months
% of urban population		Years
St. Vincent and the Grenadines VCT99%2.76%2024, 2022
Turkiye TUR99%14.1%2024, 2022
Tonga TON99%0.308%2024, 2022
Portugal PRT99%0.059%2024, 2022
Oman OMN99%0%2024, 2022
Naoero NRU99%0.597%2024, 2022
Maldives MDV99%34.8%2024, 2022
Luxembourg LUX99%0.0173%2024, 2022
St. Lucia LCA99%0.441%2024, 2022
Kuwait KWT99%0%2024, 2022
Japan JPN99%2%2024, 2022
Jamaica JAM99%0.883%2024, 2022
Hungary HUN99%7.2%2024, 2016
Costa Rica CRI99%3.55%2024, 2022
Brunei Darussalam BRN99%21.6%2024, 2022

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

DTP3 immunisation

Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months)

WHO and UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Three doses of the diphtheria, tetanus and whooping cough (pertussis) vaccine, the standard measure of a routine vaccination system. Measles coverage is published the same way and moves with it almost exactly, so only one of the two is here.

Slum share of urban population

Population living in slums (% of urban population)

UN-Habitat · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2012–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore DTP3 immunisation and Slum share of urban population

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that DTP3 immunisation changes Slum share of urban population, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with DTP3 immunisation or Slum share of urban population