placestats

Divorce rate vs. Redistribution

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 42 countries, Divorce rate and Redistribution rise and fall together at r = -0.34 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.26, q = 0.036, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: leave-one-out range spans 0.17 in r.

Comparing countries across the middle half of divorce rate, 1.5 to 1.9 divorces per 1,000 people, redistribution is 2.12% reduction in the Gini lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 1.44% reduction in the Gini.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.340p = 0.027 · 42 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.260p = 0.101 · likely range [-0.53, +0.05]
p, allowing for regions0.003standard error 0.039 · 5 regions
Check for luck (q)0.036across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Divorce rate · divorces per 1,000 peoplelink with income -0.04 · independent
Redistribution · % reduction in the Ginilink with income +0.50 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Divorce rate · divorces per 1,000 people →Redistribution · % reduction in the Gini →0.74.73.77%48.3%Australia: 1.89 divorces per 1,000 people, 27.7% reduction in the GiniAustria: 1.54 divorces per 1,000 people, 41.4% reduction in the GiniBelgium: 1.7 divorces per 1,000 people, 47.7% reduction in the GiniBulgaria: 1.4 divorces per 1,000 people, 26% reduction in the GiniCanada: 1.1 divorces per 1,000 people, 29.3% reduction in the GiniSwitzerland: 1.8 divorces per 1,000 people, 21.2% reduction in the GiniChile: 3.63 divorces per 1,000 people, 8.68% reduction in the GiniChina: 1.8 divorces per 1,000 people, 6.22% reduction in the GiniCosta Rica: 2.8 divorces per 1,000 people, 12.6% reduction in the GiniCzechia: 1.9 divorces per 1,000 people, 43.5% reduction in the GiniGermany: 1.63 divorces per 1,000 people, 38.7% reduction in the GiniDenmark: 2.08 divorces per 1,000 people, 37.5% reduction in the GiniSpain: 1.7 divorces per 1,000 people, 34.4% reduction in the GiniEstonia: 1.9 divorces per 1,000 people, 33.5% reduction in the GiniFinland: 2 divorces per 1,000 people, 47.2% reduction in the GiniFrance: 1.9 divorces per 1,000 people, 42.2% reduction in the GiniUnited Kingdom: 1.7 divorces per 1,000 people, 29.7% reduction in the GiniGreece: 1.8 divorces per 1,000 people, 36.9% reduction in the GiniCroatia: 1.2 divorces per 1,000 people, 33.1% reduction in the GiniHungary: 1.8 divorces per 1,000 people, 29.4% reduction in the GiniIreland: 0.7 divorces per 1,000 people, 41.2% reduction in the GiniIceland: 1.9 divorces per 1,000 people, 35.7% reduction in the GiniIsrael: 1.72 divorces per 1,000 people, 23.2% reduction in the GiniItaly: 1.4 divorces per 1,000 people, 36.2% reduction in the GiniJapan: 1.52 divorces per 1,000 people, 34.1% reduction in the GiniKorea, Rep.: 1.8 divorces per 1,000 people, 18.2% reduction in the GiniLithuania: 2.6 divorces per 1,000 people, 29.7% reduction in the GiniLuxembourg: 1.9 divorces per 1,000 people, 35.7% reduction in the GiniLatvia: 2.9 divorces per 1,000 people, 28.1% reduction in the GiniMexico: 1.28 divorces per 1,000 people, 3.77% reduction in the GiniNetherlands: 1.3 divorces per 1,000 people, 34.2% reduction in the GiniNorway: 1.5 divorces per 1,000 people, 39.5% reduction in the GiniNew Zealand: 1.48 divorces per 1,000 people, 28.7% reduction in the GiniPoland: 1.6 divorces per 1,000 people, 41.9% reduction in the GiniPortugal: 1.8 divorces per 1,000 people, 36.5% reduction in the GiniRomania: 1.2 divorces per 1,000 people, 38.1% reduction in the GiniRussian Federation: 4.7 divorces per 1,000 people, 27% reduction in the GiniSlovak Republic: 1.5 divorces per 1,000 people, 48.3% reduction in the GiniSlovenia: 1 divorces per 1,000 people, 42.4% reduction in the GiniSweden: 2.1 divorces per 1,000 people, 33.1% reduction in the GiniTurkiye: 2.1 divorces per 1,000 people, 18.6% reduction in the GiniUnited States: 2.5 divorces per 1,000 people, 22.1% reduction in the GiniBELCHLCHNCRIFINIRLKORMEXRUSSVKSVN

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3400.02742
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.2850.06742
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2600.10142
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.2730.08442

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 42 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.080 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.350 (without MEX) to -0.180 (without CHL). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: MEX (-0.090).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • leave-one-out range spans 0.17 in r

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
Europe & Central Asia31-0.34

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third14-0.65
Middle third14-0.11
Richest third14-0.39

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians34-0.34

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.236 after dropping 8 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 12years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = +0.162, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose divorce rate moved did not tend to see their redistribution move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.260for comparison
Within countries+0.076each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.162q = 0.234 · 36 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.048q = 0.713
Read with care.
  • Almost all of the second indicator's variation is between countries, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

374 country-years (one country in one year), 36 countries, 2011–2022, about 10 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 15% for Divorce rate, 4% for Redistribution. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.20−0.2-40+10years Redistribution trails Divorce rate →lag -4: r = 0.160 (n = 216)lag -3: r = 0.166 (n = 250)lag -2: r = 0.183 (n = 300)lag -1: r = 0.183 (n = 332)lag +0: r = 0.162 (n = 374)lag +1: r = 0.078 (n = 400)lag +2: r = 0.052 (n = 406)lag +3: r = 0.026 (n = 411)lag +4: r = 0.048 (n = 417)lag +5: r = 0.047 (n = 419)lag +6: r = 0.017 (n = 421)lag +7: r = 0.021 (n = 421)lag +8: r = 0.027 (n = 421)lag +9: r = -0.000 (n = 419)lag +10: r = 0.018 (n = 413)

Same year (lag 0): +0.162. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


divorces per 1,000 people
% reduction in the Gini		Years
Russian Federation RUS4.727%2013, 2017
Chile CHL3.638.68%2021, 2022
Latvia LVA2.928.1%2022, 2023
Costa Rica CRI2.812.6%2021, 2024
Lithuania LTU2.629.7%2022, 2023
United States USA2.522.1%2021, 2023
Turkiye TUR2.118.6%2022
Sweden SWE2.133.1%2022, 2023
Denmark DNK2.0837.5%2022
Finland FIN247.2%2022, 2023
Luxembourg LUX1.935.7%2022, 2023
Iceland ISL1.935.7%2020, 2019
France FRA1.942.2%2016, 2023
Estonia EST1.933.5%2022, 2023
Czechia CZE1.943.5%2022, 2023

OECD databases as named on each indicator: PISA, Social Expenditure Database (SOCX), Income Distribution Database, Development Assistance Committee statistics, Family Database, Government at a Glance, Corporate Tax Statistics, employment and environment statistics
OECD databases as named on each indicator: PISA, Social Expenditure Database (SOCX), Income Distribution Database, Development Assistance Committee statistics, Family Database, Government at a Glance, Corporate Tax Statistics, employment and environment statistics

Sources

Divorce rate

Crude divorce rate

OECD · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 (OECD terms and conditions) · updated annual, except the snapshots noted per indicator

Divorces granted in the year per 1,000 people (counted at mid-year). From the same OECD Family Database table as the marriage rate, and for the same forty-odd OECD countries. It is a crude rate, not adjusted for how many people are married. So a country where few people marry can have few divorces without its marriages lasting any longer. No "better" direction is set.

Redistribution

Reduction in the Gini coefficient from taxes and transfers

OECD · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 (OECD terms and conditions) · updated annual, except the snapshots noted per indicator · comparable from 2011 only

The Gini before taxes and payments minus the Gini after them, as a share of the first. It shows how much of the inequality produced by the market the government removes. It is built from the before-tax Gini above, so their pair is built from the same numbers and flagged. No "better" direction is set: a country may redistribute little because its market incomes are already equal.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2011–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 5 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Divorce rate and Redistribution

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Divorce rate changes Redistribution, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Divorce rate or Redistribution