placestats

Corporate tax rate vs. Migrant share of population

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 86 countries, Corporate tax rate and Migrant share of population rise and fall together at r = -0.52 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) leaves r = -0.40, which could easily be chance (q = 0.14, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). Caution: correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed.

Comparing countries across the middle half of corporate tax rate, 18.1% to 28% of profit, migrant share of population is 9.36% of population lower at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 6.39% of population.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.521p = 2.8e-7 · 86 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.399p = 0.000 · likely range [-0.56, -0.20]
p, allowing for regions0.030standard error 0.141 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.136across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Corporate tax rate · % of profitlink with income -0.36 · moderate
Migrant share of population · % of populationlink with income +0.73 · high

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Corporate tax rate · % of profit →Migrant share of population · % of population →0%48.3%0.1%74%Angola: 30% of profit, 1.8% of populationAndorra: 10% of profit, 59.1% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 0% of profit, 74% of populationArgentina: 30% of profit, 4.3% of populationAustralia: 30% of profit, 30.4% of populationAustria: 25% of profit, 25.5% of populationBelgium: 29.6% of profit, 20% of populationBurkina Faso: 27.5% of profit, 3.1% of populationBulgaria: 10% of profit, 4.4% of populationBahrain: 0% of profit, 52.3% of populationBahamas, The: 0% of profit, 16.8% of populationBermuda: 0% of profit, 31.2% of populationBrazil: 34% of profit, 0.7% of populationBarbados: 25% of profit, 12.5% of populationBrunei Darussalam: 18.5% of profit, 25.9% of populationBotswana: 22% of profit, 4.6% of populationCanada: 26.8% of profit, 22.2% of populationSwitzerland: 21.1% of profit, 31.1% of populationChile: 25% of profit, 7.8% of populationChina: 25% of profit, 0.1% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 25% of profit, 9% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 35% of profit, 1% of populationCuracao: 22% of profit, 43.1% of populationCayman Islands: 0% of profit, 42.9% of populationCzechia: 19% of profit, 9.5% of populationGermany: 29.8% of profit, 19.8% of populationDenmark: 22% of profit, 14.2% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 22.5% of profit, 1% of populationSpain: 25% of profit, 18.5% of populationEstonia: 20% of profit, 14.9% of populationFinland: 20% of profit, 9.2% of populationFrance: 34.4% of profit, 13.8% of populationGabon: 30% of profit, 17.7% of populationUnited Kingdom: 19% of profit, 17.1% of populationGreece: 29% of profit, 14.2% of populationHong Kong SAR, China: 16.5% of profit, 41.3% of populationCroatia: 18% of profit, 13.6% of populationHungary: 9% of profit, 7.1% of populationIndonesia: 25% of profit, 0.2% of populationIndia: 48.3% of profit, 0.3% of populationIreland: 12.5% of profit, 23.1% of populationIceland: 20% of profit, 25.1% of populationIsrael: 23% of profit, 22.3% of populationItaly: 27.8% of profit, 11% of populationJamaica: 25% of profit, 0.8% of populationJapan: 29.7% of profit, 2.8% of populationKenya: 30% of profit, 1.8% of populationKorea, Rep.: 27.5% of profit, 3.5% of populationLiberia: 25% of profit, 1.3% of populationLithuania: 15% of profit, 6.1% of populationLuxembourg: 26% of profit, 51.2% of populationLatvia: 20% of profit, 11.8% of populationMacao SAR, China: 12% of profit, 59.3% of populationMaldives: 15% of profit, 14.2% of populationMexico: 30% of profit, 1.3% of populationMalta: 35% of profit, 37% of populationMauritius: 15% of profit, 2.3% of populationMalaysia: 24% of profit, 10.7% of populationNigeria: 30% of profit, 0.6% of populationNetherlands: 25% of profit, 16.2% of populationNorway: 23% of profit, 18.2% of populationNew Zealand: 28% of profit, 28.2% of populationOman: 15% of profit, 43.2% of populationPanama: 25% of profit, 10.6% of populationPeru: 29.5% of profit, 5.4% of populationPoland: 19% of profit, 4.5% of populationPortugal: 31.5% of profit, 10.8% of populationParaguay: 10% of profit, 2.6% of populationRomania: 16% of profit, 3.4% of populationRussian Federation: 20% of profit, 5.3% of populationSaudi Arabia: 0% of profit, 40.3% of populationSenegal: 30% of profit, 1.5% of populationSingapore: 17% of profit, 48.7% of populationSerbia: 15% of profit, 10.6% of populationSlovak Republic: 21% of profit, 5.9% of populationSlovenia: 19% of profit, 14.9% of populationSweden: 22% of profit, 21.4% of populationSeychelles: 30% of profit, 10.2% of populationTurks and Caicos Islands: 0% of profit, 61.1% of populationThailand: 20% of profit, 4.4% of populationTurkiye: 22% of profit, 8.1% of populationUruguay: 25% of profit, 4.7% of populationUnited States: 25.8% of profit, 15.2% of populationSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 30% of profit, 4.8% of populationViet Nam: 20% of profit, 0.3% of populationSouth Africa: 28% of profit, 4.1% of populationAREBGRBHRBHSBRACODINDLUXMLTPRYTCA

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.5212.8e-786
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.3910.00086
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.3990.00086
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.1920.07886

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 86 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.122 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.432 (without MLT) to -0.335 (without TCA). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: TCA (+0.064).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed
  • sign flips once outliers are trimmed
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific13-0.59
Europe & Central Asia33-0.09
Latin America & Caribbean15-0.53
Sub-Saharan Africa13+0.32

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third29-0.12
Middle third28-0.36
Richest third29-0.56

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians53+0.23
Muslims14-0.80

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
United Kingdom23-0.45

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.048 after dropping 11 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of profit
% of population		Years
India IND48.3%0.3%2018, 2024
Malta MLT35%37%2018, 2024
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD35%1%2018, 2024
France FRA34.4%13.8%2018, 2024
Brazil BRA34%0.7%2018, 2024
Portugal PRT31.5%10.8%2018, 2024
St. Vincent and the Grenadines VCT30%4.8%2018, 2024
Seychelles SYC30%10.2%2018, 2024
Senegal SEN30%1.5%2018, 2024
Nigeria NGA30%0.6%2018, 2024
Mexico MEX30%1.3%2018, 2024
Kenya KEN30%1.8%2018, 2024
Gabon GAB30%17.7%2018, 2024
Australia AUS30%30.4%2018, 2024
Argentina ARG30%4.3%2018, 2024

OECD databases as named on each indicator: PISA, Social Expenditure Database (SOCX), Income Distribution Database, Development Assistance Committee statistics, Family Database, Government at a Glance, Corporate Tax Statistics, employment and environment statistics
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Corporate tax rate

Combined statutory corporate income tax rate

OECD · via Our World in Data · CC BY 4.0 (OECD terms and conditions) · updated annual, except the snapshots noted per indicator

The headline tax rate on company profits, national and local combined, for over ninety countries and territories. That is the widest coverage of any OECD series here. It is the rate written in law, not the rate firms actually pay after allowances and tax avoidance. From a 2019 release kept as a snapshot, so the series ends in 2018. No "better" direction is set.

Migrant share of population

International migrant stock (% of population)

UN Population Division, International Migrant Stock · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

People living outside the country they were born in, as a share of the population. It counts people at one moment, while the net migration already on the site counts moves over a year. Published every five years until 2020, and for 2024.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2018–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Corporate tax rate and Migrant share of population

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Corporate tax rate changes Migrant share of population, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Corporate tax rate or Migrant share of population