placestats

Civil liberties (FH) vs. Marriage rate (UN)

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 94 countries, Civil liberties (FH) and Marriage rate (UN) rise and fall together at r = +0.47 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = +0.42, q = 0.038, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of civil liberties (fh), 1 to 4 points, marriage rate (un) is 1.21 marriages per 1,000 people higher at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 1.18 marriages per 1,000 people.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.472p = 1.6e-6 · 94 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.418p = 3.0e-5 · likely range [+0.23, +0.57]
p, allowing for regions0.003standard error 0.088 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.038across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Civil liberties (FH) · rating (1-7, 1 = most free)link with income -0.49 · moderate
Marriage rate (UN) · marriages per 1,000 peoplelink with income -0.21 · independent

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Civil liberties (FH) · rating (1-7, 1 = most free) →Marriage rate (UN) · marriages per 1,000 people →171.098.97Albania: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.74 marriages per 1,000 peopleAndorra: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.15 marriages per 1,000 peopleArgentina: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 2.84 marriages per 1,000 peopleArmenia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.12 marriages per 1,000 peopleAustralia: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.44 marriages per 1,000 peopleAustria: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5 marriages per 1,000 peopleAzerbaijan: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.86 marriages per 1,000 peopleBelgium: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.96 marriages per 1,000 peopleBulgaria: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.2 marriages per 1,000 peopleBosnia and Herzegovina: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.43 marriages per 1,000 peopleBelarus: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.05 marriages per 1,000 peopleBarbados: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.42 marriages per 1,000 peopleBrunei Darussalam: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.59 marriages per 1,000 peopleCanada: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 2.59 marriages per 1,000 peopleSwitzerland: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.21 marriages per 1,000 peopleChile: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.04 marriages per 1,000 peopleCabo Verde: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.78 marriages per 1,000 peopleCosta Rica: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.17 marriages per 1,000 peopleCyprus: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 7.34 marriages per 1,000 peopleCzechia: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.09 marriages per 1,000 peopleGermany: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.18 marriages per 1,000 peopleDominica: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.18 marriages per 1,000 peopleDenmark: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.51 marriages per 1,000 peopleDominican Republic: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.11 marriages per 1,000 peopleEgypt, Arab Rep.: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 8.97 marriages per 1,000 peopleSpain: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.57 marriages per 1,000 peopleEstonia: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.63 marriages per 1,000 peopleFinland: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.81 marriages per 1,000 peopleFiji: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 8.26 marriages per 1,000 peopleFrance: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.64 marriages per 1,000 peopleUnited Kingdom: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.29 marriages per 1,000 peopleGeorgia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.86 marriages per 1,000 peopleGreece: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.52 marriages per 1,000 peopleGrenada: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.53 marriages per 1,000 peopleGuatemala: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.21 marriages per 1,000 peopleGuyana: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.38 marriages per 1,000 peopleHong Kong SAR, China: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.33 marriages per 1,000 peopleCroatia: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.46 marriages per 1,000 peopleHungary: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.86 marriages per 1,000 peopleIreland: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.8 marriages per 1,000 peopleIran, Islamic Rep.: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.77 marriages per 1,000 peopleIceland: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.05 marriages per 1,000 peopleIsrael: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.9 marriages per 1,000 peopleItaly: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.12 marriages per 1,000 peopleJamaica: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.13 marriages per 1,000 peopleJordan: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.65 marriages per 1,000 peopleJapan: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.81 marriages per 1,000 peopleKazakhstan: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.13 marriages per 1,000 peopleKyrgyz Republic: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.24 marriages per 1,000 peopleKorea, Rep.: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.36 marriages per 1,000 peopleKuwait: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 2.78 marriages per 1,000 peopleSt. Lucia: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.58 marriages per 1,000 peopleSri Lanka: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.87 marriages per 1,000 peopleLithuania: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.47 marriages per 1,000 peopleLuxembourg: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.82 marriages per 1,000 peopleLatvia: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.45 marriages per 1,000 peopleMoldova: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.1 marriages per 1,000 peopleMexico: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.81 marriages per 1,000 peopleNorth Macedonia: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.03 marriages per 1,000 peopleMalta: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.33 marriages per 1,000 peopleMontenegro: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.57 marriages per 1,000 peopleMongolia: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.04 marriages per 1,000 peopleMauritius: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.6 marriages per 1,000 peopleMalaysia: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.63 marriages per 1,000 peopleNicaragua: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.33 marriages per 1,000 peopleNetherlands: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.83 marriages per 1,000 peopleNorway: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.81 marriages per 1,000 peopleNew Zealand: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.41 marriages per 1,000 peoplePanama: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.74 marriages per 1,000 peoplePeru: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.97 marriages per 1,000 peoplePoland: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.7 marriages per 1,000 peoplePuerto Rico (US): 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.7 marriages per 1,000 peoplePortugal: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.53 marriages per 1,000 peopleQatar: 5 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.34 marriages per 1,000 peopleRomania: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.32 marriages per 1,000 peopleRussian Federation: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 8.54 marriages per 1,000 peopleSudan: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.6 marriages per 1,000 peopleSingapore: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.3 marriages per 1,000 peopleSan Marino: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.4 marriages per 1,000 peopleSerbia: 3 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.6 marriages per 1,000 peopleSao Tome and Principe: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 1.09 marriages per 1,000 peopleSuriname: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.38 marriages per 1,000 peopleSlovak Republic: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.88 marriages per 1,000 peopleSlovenia: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 2.99 marriages per 1,000 peopleSweden: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 4.25 marriages per 1,000 peopleTajikistan: 7 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 8.8 marriages per 1,000 peopleTrinidad and Tobago: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.3 marriages per 1,000 peopleTurkiye: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.65 marriages per 1,000 peopleUkraine: 4 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 5.17 marriages per 1,000 peopleUruguay: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 2.78 marriages per 1,000 peopleUnited States: 2 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.1 marriages per 1,000 peopleUzbekistan: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 7.31 marriages per 1,000 peopleSt. Vincent and the Grenadines: 1 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 3.13 marriages per 1,000 peopleViet Nam: 6 rating (1-7, 1 = most free), 6.17 marriages per 1,000 peopleBRBCANCYPEGYFJIGBRKWTQATRUSSDNSTPTJK

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.4721.6e-694
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.4934.5e-794
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.4183.0e-594
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.4381.1e-594

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 94 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.053 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.379 (without RUS) to +0.489 (without QAT). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: QAT (+0.071).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
Europe & Central Asia49+0.44
Latin America & Caribbean20-0.06

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third32+0.44
Middle third31+0.55
Richest third31+0.18

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians62+0.33
Muslims16+0.03

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Never a European colony12+0.68
United Kingdom25+0.07

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.324 after dropping 3 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 12years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Within countries over time, there is no link that is clearly more than chance (r = -0.086, comparing each country only with itself over the years, and each year only with the same year elsewhere). Whatever the cross-country picture shows, countries whose civil liberties (fh) moved did not tend to see their marriage rate (un) move with it.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.418for comparison
Within countries-0.200each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.086q = 0.465 · 89 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.034q = 0.548
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

949 country-years (one country in one year), 89 countries, 2013–2024, about 11 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 3% for Civil liberties (FH), 18% for Marriage rate (UN). The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.40−0.4-80+10years Marriage rate (UN) trails Civil liberties (FH) →lag -8: r = -0.186 (n = 400)lag -7: r = -0.290 (n = 499)lag -6: r = -0.320 (n = 584)lag -5: r = -0.298 (n = 667)lag -4: r = -0.208 (n = 754)lag -3: r = -0.114 (n = 835)lag -2: r = -0.102 (n = 904)lag -1: r = -0.112 (n = 949)lag +0: r = -0.086 (n = 949)lag +1: r = -0.062 (n = 949)lag +2: r = -0.037 (n = 954)lag +3: r = -0.014 (n = 955)lag +4: r = 0.007 (n = 956)lag +5: r = 0.008 (n = 957)lag +6: r = 0.010 (n = 958)lag +7: r = -0.009 (n = 959)lag +8: r = -0.019 (n = 960)lag +9: r = -0.053 (n = 961)lag +10: r = -0.066 (n = 961)

Same year (lag 0): -0.086. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The largest value on this curve (-0.32 at lag -6) is higher than the same-year one by 0.23. That gap is not a finding. It is the largest of 19 closely related estimates, and picking the biggest of many tests always makes it look bigger. That is exactly why nothing on this site is ranked or chosen by lag.

The data


rating (1-7, 1 = most free)
marriages per 1,000 people		Years
Tajikistan TJK78.82025, 2019
Sudan SDN74.62025, 2018
Iran, Islamic Rep. IRN76.772025, 2021
Belarus BLR75.052025, 2024
Azerbaijan AZE74.862025, 2024
Viet Nam VNM66.172025, 2024
Uzbekistan UZB67.312025, 2024
Turkiye TUR66.652025, 2024
Russian Federation RUS68.542025, 2013
Nicaragua NIC64.332025, 2023
Egypt, Arab Rep. EGY68.972025, 2022
Qatar QAT51.342025, 2022
Kuwait KWT52.782025, 2023
Kyrgyz Republic KGZ56.242025, 2024
Kazakhstan KAZ56.132025, 2024

Freedom House, Freedom in the World
United Nations Statistics Division, Demographic Yearbook, 2017 to 2024 editions: tables of marriages and crude marriage rates, and of divorces and crude divorce rates, by urban/rural residence.

Sources

Civil liberties (FH)

Civil liberties rating

Freedom House · via Our World in Data · Free to use with attribution · updated annual

Scored 1 to 7, where 1 is most free. Covers freedom of speech and belief, the right to form groups, the rule of law and personal freedom. The same expert review process produces the political rights rating, so the two are bound to match closely.

Marriage rate (UN)

Crude marriage rate, countries with complete registration

United Nations Statistics Division · UNdata terms of use · updated annual (each edition covers the latest five years)

Marriages registered in the year per 1,000 people, from each country's civil register, as published in the UN Demographic Yearbook. Only countries whose register the UN rates as at least 90% complete are included. That leaves out most of Africa and much of South Asia, where many marriages are religious or customary and never registered, so the countries here lean toward places with strong record-keeping. Countries whose figures include visitors' weddings (Seychelles, about 30 per 1,000, and the Bahamas) are left out, since they show a wedding industry rather than how often residents marry. So is Equatorial Guinea, whose register is far too thin to be complete. Each yearly edition covers five years; where they overlap, the newest is used, since countries revise. Where both exist it matches the OECD series almost exactly (r = 0.998), so the two are treated as one measure, not two findings. The low points in 2020 are the pandemic. A few small island territories, such as the Turks and Caicos Islands (11 to 16 per 1,000), probably count visitors' weddings without saying so. No "better" direction is set: it describes how people live.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2013–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Civil liberties (FH) and Marriage rate (UN)

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Civil liberties (FH) changes Marriage rate (UN), or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Civil liberties (FH) or Marriage rate (UN)