placestats

Child stunting vs. Undernourishment

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 138 countries, Child stunting and Undernourishment rise and fall together at r = +0.63 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to +0.17, which could easily be chance (q = 0.19, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed.

Comparing countries across the middle half of child stunting, 6.28% to 23.9% of children under 5, undernourishment is worse by 9.82% of population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 2.98% of population.

Link before adjusting (r)+0.631p = 1.1e-16 · 138 countries
After adjusting for national income+0.169p = 0.048 · likely range [+0.00, +0.33]
p, allowing for regions0.053standard error 0.070 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.188across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Child stunting · % of children under 5link with income -0.80 · proxy
Undernourishment · % of populationlink with income -0.83 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Child stunting · % of children under 5 →Undernourishment · % of population →1%48.3%2.5%54.2%Afghanistan: 42% of children under 5, 28.1% of populationAngola: 47.7% of children under 5, 22.5% of populationAlbania: 7.4% of children under 5, 5.4% of populationArgentina: 10.7% of children under 5, 3.4% of populationArmenia: 6.2% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationAustralia: 3.1% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationAzerbaijan: 6.8% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationBelgium: 2.6% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationBenin: 33.2% of children under 5, 14.3% of populationBurkina Faso: 19.5% of children under 5, 13.1% of populationBangladesh: 25.1% of children under 5, 10.4% of populationBulgaria: 5.5% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationBosnia and Herzegovina: 7.9% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationBelarus: 1.1% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationBelize: 11.7% of children under 5, 7% of populationBolivia: 10.7% of children under 5, 21.8% of populationBrazil: 8.9% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationBarbados: 5.8% of children under 5, 4.4% of populationBotswana: 21% of children under 5, 24% of populationCentral African Republic: 38.9% of children under 5, 29.8% of populationChile: 1.7% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationChina: 4.5% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 20.3% of children under 5, 11.1% of populationCameroon: 27.2% of children under 5, 4.8% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 44.1% of children under 5, 38.5% of populationCongo, Rep.: 16.3% of children under 5, 26.4% of populationColombia: 11.6% of children under 5, 3.9% of populationComoros: 17.4% of children under 5, 15.4% of populationCabo Verde: 5.3% of children under 5, 13.5% of populationCosta Rica: 10.6% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationCzechia: 2.4% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationGermany: 2.2% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationDjibouti: 20.9% of children under 5, 12.9% of populationDominican Republic: 5.6% of children under 5, 3.6% of populationAlgeria: 8.9% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationEcuador: 17.7% of children under 5, 12.1% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 12.9% of children under 5, 9.4% of populationEstonia: 1.3% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationEthiopia: 35.5% of children under 5, 19.7% of populationFinland: 1.7% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationFiji: 7.2% of children under 5, 6.8% of populationGabon: 13.7% of children under 5, 25.3% of populationUnited Kingdom: 3.5% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationGeorgia: 4.7% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationGhana: 15.6% of children under 5, 6.3% of populationGuinea: 26.6% of children under 5, 11.4% of populationGambia, The: 14% of children under 5, 16.8% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 28.3% of children under 5, 22.1% of populationGreece: 2% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationGuatemala: 44.6% of children under 5, 11.8% of populationGuyana: 7.1% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationHonduras: 17.9% of children under 5, 14.8% of populationHaiti: 21.6% of children under 5, 54.2% of populationIndonesia: 22.6% of children under 5, 6.3% of populationIndia: 32.9% of children under 5, 12% of populationIreland: 2.2% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 4.8% of children under 5, 6.8% of populationIraq: 9.4% of children under 5, 14.9% of populationJamaica: 6.9% of children under 5, 7.7% of populationJordan: 7.7% of children under 5, 14.3% of populationKazakhstan: 4.4% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationKenya: 17.9% of children under 5, 36.8% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 11% of children under 5, 5.1% of populationCambodia: 22% of children under 5, 5.2% of populationKiribati: 14.7% of children under 5, 4.1% of populationKorea, Rep.: 1.8% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationKuwait: 4.5% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationLebanon: 10.1% of children under 5, 8.7% of populationLiberia: 26.9% of children under 5, 35.5% of populationLibya: 9.2% of children under 5, 16.5% of populationSri Lanka: 10.1% of children under 5, 7.4% of populationLithuania: 1.6% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationLatvia: 1.7% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationMorocco: 13.7% of children under 5, 7% of populationMoldova: 4.2% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationMadagascar: 38.4% of children under 5, 39.5% of populationMexico: 13.1% of children under 5, 2.7% of populationNorth Macedonia: 3.8% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationMali: 23.2% of children under 5, 12.3% of populationMalta: 3.5% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationMyanmar: 24.5% of children under 5, 5.4% of populationMontenegro: 8% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationMongolia: 7.1% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationMozambique: 37% of children under 5, 21.8% of populationMauritania: 21.5% of children under 5, 8.7% of populationMauritius: 7.8% of children under 5, 8.7% of populationMalawi: 33.2% of children under 5, 21.4% of populationMalaysia: 24.3% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationNamibia: 16.4% of children under 5, 18.1% of populationNiger: 48.3% of children under 5, 12.9% of populationNigeria: 33.8% of children under 5, 19.9% of populationNetherlands: 1.6% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationNepal: 26% of children under 5, 5.3% of populationOman: 12.9% of children under 5, 5.9% of populationPakistan: 33.6% of children under 5, 16.5% of populationPanama: 14% of children under 5, 5.7% of populationPeru: 10.6% of children under 5, 6.9% of populationPhilippines: 27.7% of children under 5, 3% of populationPapua New Guinea: 47.6% of children under 5, 28.7% of populationPoland: 1% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationPortugal: 3.2% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationParaguay: 3.2% of children under 5, 5.2% of populationRomania: 7% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationRwanda: 29.8% of children under 5, 24.4% of populationSaudi Arabia: 11.1% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationSudan: 35.4% of children under 5, 11% of populationSenegal: 17.2% of children under 5, 5.1% of populationSolomon Islands: 29.8% of children under 5, 20% of populationSierra Leone: 25.2% of children under 5, 24.1% of populationEl Salvador: 9.4% of children under 5, 6.7% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 23.9% of children under 5, 53.2% of populationSerbia: 4.6% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 10% of children under 5, 17.4% of populationSuriname: 8% of children under 5, 9.7% of populationEswatini: 18.9% of children under 5, 14.7% of populationSeychelles: 6.2% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationSyrian Arab Republic: 23.5% of children under 5, 39% of populationChad: 31.5% of children under 5, 32% of populationTogo: 23% of children under 5, 9.1% of populationThailand: 12.3% of children under 5, 4.6% of populationTajikistan: 13.1% of children under 5, 8.4% of populationTurkmenistan: 6.5% of children under 5, 4.3% of populationTimor-Leste: 45.4% of children under 5, 18.7% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 7.8% of children under 5, 11.2% of populationTunisia: 8.9% of children under 5, 3% of populationTurkiye: 5.5% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationTanzania: 29.9% of children under 5, 20.2% of populationUganda: 23.5% of children under 5, 22% of populationUkraine: 11.7% of children under 5, 6.9% of populationUruguay: 6.5% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationUnited States: 4.2% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationUzbekistan: 6.7% of children under 5, 2.5% of populationViet Nam: 19.2% of children under 5, 5.3% of populationVanuatu: 31% of children under 5, 7.2% of populationSamoa: 8.4% of children under 5, 3.6% of populationSouth Africa: 24.4% of children under 5, 10% of populationZambia: 32.3% of children under 5, 37.2% of populationZimbabwe: 23.7% of children under 5, 19.7% of populationBLRCODESTGTMHTIKENMDGNERPHLPOLSOM

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted+0.6311.1e-16138
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted+0.7783.5e-29138
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income+0.1690.048138
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income+0.3080.000138

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 138 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.462 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from +0.144 (without AGO) to +0.220 (without SOM). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SOM (+0.051).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific18+0.63
Europe & Central Asia32+0.50
Latin America & Caribbean23+0.12
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17+0.23
Sub-Saharan Africa43+0.10

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third46+0.00
Middle third46+0.38
Richest third46+0.23

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians81+0.22
Muslims43+0.08

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24-0.09
Never a European colony20+0.45
Spain17+0.05
United Kingdom41+0.19

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = +0.330 after dropping 8 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

Loading…

Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 23years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link shows up within countries over time (r = +0.236) but mostly disappears in year-to-year changes (r = +0.129). That points to slow trends particular to each country, not the two measures moving together from year to year.

Across countries (adjusted)+0.169for comparison
Within countries+0.409each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere+0.236q = 0.005 · 141 countries
Year-on-year changes+0.129q = 0.099
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.

3,207 country-years (one country in one year), 141 countries, 2001–2023, about 23 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 9% for Child stunting, 14% for Undernourishment. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.30−0.3-100+10years Undernourishment trails Child stunting →lag -10: r = 0.077 (n = 1,952)lag -9: r = 0.095 (n = 2,091)lag -8: r = 0.114 (n = 2,230)lag -7: r = 0.133 (n = 2,374)lag -6: r = 0.152 (n = 2,514)lag -5: r = 0.172 (n = 2,653)lag -4: r = 0.190 (n = 2,792)lag -3: r = 0.205 (n = 2,931)lag -2: r = 0.216 (n = 3,069)lag -1: r = 0.225 (n = 3,207)lag +0: r = 0.236 (n = 3,207)lag +1: r = 0.247 (n = 3,207)lag +2: r = 0.245 (n = 3,067)lag +3: r = 0.239 (n = 2,923)lag +4: r = 0.230 (n = 2,784)lag +5: r = 0.215 (n = 2,645)lag +6: r = 0.192 (n = 2,506)lag +7: r = 0.162 (n = 2,367)lag +8: r = 0.127 (n = 2,228)lag +9: r = 0.093 (n = 2,089)lag +10: r = 0.066 (n = 1,950)

Same year (lag 0): +0.236. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of children under 5
% of population		Years
Niger NER48.3%12.9%2024, 2023
Angola AGO47.7%22.5%2024, 2023
Papua New Guinea PNG47.6%28.7%2024, 2023
Timor-Leste TLS45.4%18.7%2024, 2023
Guatemala GTM44.6%11.8%2024, 2023
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD44.1%38.5%2024, 2023
Afghanistan AFG42%28.1%2024, 2023
Central African Republic CAF38.9%29.8%2024, 2023
Madagascar MDG38.4%39.5%2024, 2023
Mozambique MOZ37%21.8%2024, 2023
Ethiopia ETH35.5%19.7%2024, 2023
Sudan SDN35.4%11%2024, 2021
Nigeria NGA33.8%19.9%2024, 2023
Pakistan PAK33.6%16.5%2024, 2023
Malawi MWI33.2%21.4%2024, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Child stunting

Prevalence of stunting, height for age, modelled estimate (% of children under 5)

UNICEF, WHO and World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

An estimate from a statistical model. The agencies fit a model to household surveys and predict every country and year. So this is smoother than the surveys behind it, and it has values for years nobody measured. The survey-only series never reaches sixty countries in any year.

Undernourishment

Prevalence of undernourishment (% of population)

Food and Agriculture Organization · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Estimated from the food supply and how it is shared out, not by asking anyone. It is the FAO's model of how many people get less food energy than they need. The survey-based food insecurity measure below is treated as measuring the same thing. So their pair reads as two tools agreeing, not as a finding.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2021–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Child stunting and Undernourishment

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Child stunting changes Undernourishment, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Child stunting or Undernourishment