placestats

Child stunting vs. Primary completion

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 142 countries, Child stunting and Primary completion rise and fall together at r = -0.68 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.25, which could easily be chance (q = 0.43, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed.

Comparing countries across the middle half of primary completion, 78.9% to 99.4% of children, child stunting is better by 9.91% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 3.43% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.683p = 7.5e-21 · 142 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.246p = 0.003 · likely range [-0.40, -0.08]
p, allowing for regions0.100standard error 0.126 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.428across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Child stunting · % of children under 5link with income -0.80 · proxy
Primary completion · % of childrenlink with income +0.83 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Child stunting · % of children under 5 →Primary completion · % of children →1%55.3%28.8%100%Afghanistan: 42% of children under 5, 55.4% of childrenAngola: 47.7% of children under 5, 65.2% of childrenAlbania: 7.4% of children under 5, 97.4% of childrenArgentina: 10.7% of children under 5, 96.7% of childrenArmenia: 6.2% of children under 5, 99.5% of childrenAustralia: 3.1% of children under 5, 99.5% of childrenAzerbaijan: 6.8% of children under 5, 98.4% of childrenBurundi: 55.3% of children under 5, 60.5% of childrenBelgium: 2.6% of children under 5, 98.9% of childrenBenin: 33.2% of children under 5, 70.1% of childrenBurkina Faso: 19.5% of children under 5, 72.2% of childrenBangladesh: 25.1% of children under 5, 90.8% of childrenBulgaria: 5.5% of children under 5, 99.1% of childrenBosnia and Herzegovina: 7.9% of children under 5, 99.8% of childrenBelarus: 1.1% of children under 5, 99.8% of childrenBelize: 11.7% of children under 5, 90.2% of childrenBolivia: 10.7% of children under 5, 98.5% of childrenBrazil: 8.9% of children under 5, 93% of childrenBarbados: 5.8% of children under 5, 99.5% of childrenBhutan: 17.9% of children under 5, 93.6% of childrenBotswana: 21% of children under 5, 99% of childrenCentral African Republic: 38.9% of children under 5, 30.8% of childrenChile: 1.7% of children under 5, 97.4% of childrenChina: 4.5% of children under 5, 99% of childrenCote d'Ivoire: 20.3% of children under 5, 78.8% of childrenCameroon: 27.2% of children under 5, 77.8% of childrenCongo, Dem. Rep.: 44.1% of children under 5, 68.4% of childrenCongo, Rep.: 16.3% of children under 5, 93.9% of childrenColombia: 11.6% of children under 5, 95.5% of childrenComoros: 17.4% of children under 5, 86.1% of childrenCosta Rica: 10.6% of children under 5, 98.9% of childrenCzechia: 2.4% of children under 5, 99.9% of childrenGermany: 2.2% of children under 5, 100% of childrenDjibouti: 20.9% of children under 5, 89.4% of childrenDominican Republic: 5.6% of children under 5, 96.1% of childrenAlgeria: 8.9% of children under 5, 96.5% of childrenEcuador: 17.7% of children under 5, 99.5% of childrenEgypt, Arab Rep.: 12.9% of children under 5, 96.3% of childrenEstonia: 1.3% of children under 5, 99.5% of childrenEthiopia: 35.5% of children under 5, 64.6% of childrenFinland: 1.7% of children under 5, 99.7% of childrenFiji: 7.2% of children under 5, 98.9% of childrenGabon: 13.7% of children under 5, 74.3% of childrenUnited Kingdom: 3.5% of children under 5, 99.9% of childrenGeorgia: 4.7% of children under 5, 99.8% of childrenGhana: 15.6% of children under 5, 79.1% of childrenGuinea: 26.6% of children under 5, 61% of childrenGambia, The: 14% of children under 5, 74.8% of childrenGuinea-Bissau: 28.3% of children under 5, 30.5% of childrenEquatorial Guinea: 17.1% of children under 5, 73.6% of childrenGreece: 2% of children under 5, 99.3% of childrenGuatemala: 44.6% of children under 5, 87% of childrenGuyana: 7.1% of children under 5, 99.2% of childrenHonduras: 17.9% of children under 5, 89.6% of childrenHaiti: 21.6% of children under 5, 50.5% of childrenIndonesia: 22.6% of children under 5, 98.9% of childrenIndia: 32.9% of children under 5, 96.5% of childrenIreland: 2.2% of children under 5, 99.8% of childrenIran, Islamic Rep.: 4.8% of children under 5, 96.7% of childrenIraq: 9.4% of children under 5, 83.3% of childrenJamaica: 6.9% of children under 5, 99.4% of childrenJordan: 7.7% of children under 5, 98.5% of childrenJapan: 5.2% of children under 5, 100% of childrenKazakhstan: 4.4% of children under 5, 99.7% of childrenKenya: 17.9% of children under 5, 88.4% of childrenKyrgyz Republic: 11% of children under 5, 99.4% of childrenCambodia: 22% of children under 5, 82.7% of childrenKiribati: 14.7% of children under 5, 94.4% of childrenKorea, Rep.: 1.8% of children under 5, 100% of childrenLao PDR: 29.9% of children under 5, 70.1% of childrenLiberia: 26.9% of children under 5, 29.8% of childrenSt. Lucia: 2.8% of children under 5, 99.6% of childrenLesotho: 35% of children under 5, 79.8% of childrenLithuania: 1.6% of children under 5, 99.7% of childrenLatvia: 1.7% of children under 5, 99.6% of childrenMorocco: 13.7% of children under 5, 84.6% of childrenMoldova: 4.2% of children under 5, 98.8% of childrenMadagascar: 38.4% of children under 5, 54% of childrenMaldives: 14.2% of children under 5, 99.4% of childrenMexico: 13.1% of children under 5, 98.2% of childrenNorth Macedonia: 3.8% of children under 5, 99.5% of childrenMali: 23.2% of children under 5, 50% of childrenMalta: 3.5% of children under 5, 98.1% of childrenMyanmar: 24.5% of children under 5, 89.8% of childrenMontenegro: 8% of children under 5, 98.9% of childrenMongolia: 7.1% of children under 5, 99.7% of childrenMozambique: 37% of children under 5, 53.5% of childrenMauritania: 21.5% of children under 5, 51.8% of childrenMauritius: 7.8% of children under 5, 99.9% of childrenMalawi: 33.2% of children under 5, 57.7% of childrenMalaysia: 24.3% of children under 5, 99.8% of childrenNamibia: 16.4% of children under 5, 86.3% of childrenNiger: 48.3% of children under 5, 77.5% of childrenNigeria: 33.8% of children under 5, 76.8% of childrenNetherlands: 1.6% of children under 5, 99.8% of childrenNepal: 26% of children under 5, 90.8% of childrenNaoero: 16% of children under 5, 89.2% of childrenPakistan: 33.6% of children under 5, 59.5% of childrenPanama: 14% of children under 5, 95.1% of childrenPeru: 10.6% of children under 5, 98.1% of childrenPhilippines: 27.7% of children under 5, 96.2% of childrenPapua New Guinea: 47.6% of children under 5, 66% of childrenPoland: 1% of children under 5, 99.7% of childrenPortugal: 3.2% of children under 5, 99.5% of childrenParaguay: 3.2% of children under 5, 94.9% of childrenWest Bank and Gaza: 8% of children under 5, 99.6% of childrenQatar: 5.4% of children under 5, 100% of childrenRomania: 7% of children under 5, 99.1% of childrenRwanda: 29.8% of children under 5, 71.9% of childrenSudan: 35.4% of children under 5, 75.6% of childrenSenegal: 17.2% of children under 5, 65.7% of childrenSierra Leone: 25.2% of children under 5, 68.8% of childrenEl Salvador: 9.4% of children under 5, 93.7% of childrenSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 23.9% of children under 5, 28.8% of childrenSerbia: 4.6% of children under 5, 99.7% of childrenSao Tome and Principe: 10% of children under 5, 93.7% of childrenSuriname: 8% of children under 5, 91.3% of childrenEswatini: 18.9% of children under 5, 82.5% of childrenSyrian Arab Republic: 23.5% of children under 5, 98.1% of childrenChad: 31.5% of children under 5, 37.8% of childrenTogo: 23% of children under 5, 87.8% of childrenThailand: 12.3% of children under 5, 99.2% of childrenTajikistan: 13.1% of children under 5, 98.8% of childrenTurkmenistan: 6.5% of children under 5, 99.8% of childrenTimor-Leste: 45.4% of children under 5, 82.1% of childrenTonga: 1.6% of children under 5, 98.4% of childrenTrinidad and Tobago: 7.8% of children under 5, 98% of childrenTunisia: 8.9% of children under 5, 96.9% of childrenTurkiye: 5.5% of children under 5, 98% of childrenTuvalu: 5.3% of children under 5, 98.8% of childrenTanzania: 29.9% of children under 5, 75.7% of childrenUganda: 23.5% of children under 5, 30.4% of childrenUkraine: 11.7% of children under 5, 99.6% of childrenUruguay: 6.5% of children under 5, 97.9% of childrenUnited States: 4.2% of children under 5, 100% of childrenUzbekistan: 6.7% of children under 5, 99.8% of childrenViet Nam: 19.2% of children under 5, 98.6% of childrenVanuatu: 31% of children under 5, 79.8% of childrenSamoa: 8.4% of children under 5, 98.5% of childrenSouth Africa: 24.4% of children under 5, 97.1% of childrenZambia: 32.3% of children under 5, 67.4% of childrenZimbabwe: 23.7% of children under 5, 86.9% of childrenBDIBLRCAFESTGNBGTMLBRNERPOLSOMTLSUGA

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.6837.5e-21142
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.8007.6e-33142
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2460.003142
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3981.1e-6142

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 142 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.437 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.284 (without SOM) to -0.219 (without AGO). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SOM (-0.038).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific22-0.69
Europe & Central Asia32-0.29
Latin America & Caribbean24-0.22
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan14-0.79
Sub-Saharan Africa44+0.04

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third48-0.06
Middle third47-0.48
Richest third47-0.22

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians83-0.27
Muslims41-0.27

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France24-0.09
Never a European colony19-0.37
Spain18-0.22
United Kingdom44-0.28

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.406 after dropping 7 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 25years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

The link also shows up within countries over time (r = -0.428). It holds even when looking only at changes from one year to the next (r = -0.333). This is the strongest kind of evidence available here: it holds when each country is compared only with itself, and it is not just a product of shared trends.

Across countries (adjusted)-0.246for comparison
Within countries-0.706each country vs itself
…and vs the same year elsewhere-0.428q = 0.000 · 145 countries
Year-on-year changes-0.333q = 3.0e-5
Read with care.
  • Almost all of this indicator's variation is between countries, not within them, so the within-country estimate rests on a small part of the data.
  • Much of the within-country association disappears once shared global year effects are removed, which points to a common worldwide trend rather than a country-level relationship.

3,625 country-years (one country in one year), 145 countries, 2000–2024, about 25 years each on average. Share of the variation that happens within countries over time: 8% for Child stunting, 9% for Primary completion. The margins of error allow for each country appearing many times, and for each year’s value being close to the year before.

Year-to-year changes are a cautious test, not a final answer. Looking only at changes from one year to the next removes each country’s own trends. But it also makes measurement mistakes louder, which pulls the results toward zero. A near-zero result here is weak evidence of no link, not proof.

With one measure years behind the other

0.50−0.5-100+10years Primary completion trails Child stunting →lag -10: r = -0.451 (n = 3,625)lag -9: r = -0.459 (n = 3,625)lag -8: r = -0.465 (n = 3,625)lag -7: r = -0.468 (n = 3,625)lag -6: r = -0.468 (n = 3,625)lag -5: r = -0.466 (n = 3,625)lag -4: r = -0.462 (n = 3,625)lag -3: r = -0.456 (n = 3,625)lag -2: r = -0.448 (n = 3,625)lag -1: r = -0.438 (n = 3,625)lag +0: r = -0.428 (n = 3,625)lag +1: r = -0.417 (n = 3,625)lag +2: r = -0.412 (n = 3,480)lag +3: r = -0.405 (n = 3,335)lag +4: r = -0.397 (n = 3,190)lag +5: r = -0.386 (n = 3,045)lag +6: r = -0.374 (n = 2,900)lag +7: r = -0.360 (n = 2,755)lag +8: r = -0.346 (n = 2,610)lag +9: r = -0.331 (n = 2,465)lag +10: r = -0.315 (n = 2,320)

Same year (lag 0): -0.428. A peak away from zero does not show which comes first. These series change slowly — this year’s value is close to last year’s. That makes the curve smooth and nearly symmetric, whatever produced the data. Even a sharp peak at one lag (a gap of some years) would not prove that one measure changes the other.

The data


% of children under 5
% of children		Years
Burundi BDI55.3%60.5%2024, 2025
Niger NER48.3%77.5%2024, 2025
Angola AGO47.7%65.2%2024, 2025
Papua New Guinea PNG47.6%66%2024, 2025
Timor-Leste TLS45.4%82.1%2024, 2025
Guatemala GTM44.6%87%2024, 2025
Congo, Dem. Rep. COD44.1%68.4%2024, 2025
Afghanistan AFG42%55.4%2024, 2025
Central African Republic CAF38.9%30.8%2024, 2025
Madagascar MDG38.4%54%2024, 2025
Mozambique MOZ37%53.5%2024, 2025
Ethiopia ETH35.5%64.6%2024, 2025
Sudan SDN35.4%75.6%2024, 2025
Lesotho LSO35%79.8%2024, 2025
Nigeria NGA33.8%76.8%2024, 2025

World Bank, World Development Indicators
UNESCO Institute for Statistics, SDG indicator 4.1.2 modelled estimates

Sources

Child stunting

Prevalence of stunting, height for age, modelled estimate (% of children under 5)

UNICEF, WHO and World Bank Joint Child Malnutrition Estimates · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

An estimate from a statistical model. The agencies fit a model to household surveys and predict every country and year. So this is smoother than the surveys behind it, and it has values for years nobody measured. The survey-only series never reaches sixty countries in any year.

Primary completion

Primary completion rate, modelled estimate

UNESCO Institute for Statistics · via Our World in Data · CC BY 3.0 IGO · updated annual

The share of children who finish primary school. UNESCO estimates it from household surveys and uses a statistical model to fill in across years. It is not the World Bank's primary completion rate, which is a ratio built from school enrolment counts of children entering the last grade. This one asks whether the child actually finished.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2024–2025. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Child stunting and Primary completion

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Child stunting changes Primary completion, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Child stunting or Primary completion