placestats

Birth registration vs. Slum share of urban population

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 163 countries, Birth registration and Slum share of urban population rise and fall together at r = -0.64 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.27, which could easily be chance (q = 0.17, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things.

Comparing countries across the middle half of birth registration, 77.7% to 100% of children under 5, slum share of urban population is better by 16% of urban population at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 6.08% of urban population.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.638p = 5.1e-20 · 163 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.271p = 0.000 · likely range [-0.41, -0.12]
p, allowing for regions0.047standard error 0.108 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.174across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth registration · % of children under 5link with income +0.87 · proxy
Slum share of urban population · % of urban populationlink with income -0.78 · high

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth registration · % of children under 5 →Slum share of urban population · % of urban population →2.7%100%0%92.5%Afghanistan: 42.3% of children under 5, 71.6% of urban populationAngola: 25% of children under 5, 62.7% of urban populationAlbania: 98.4% of children under 5, 2.7% of urban populationAndorra: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationUnited Arab Emirates: 100% of children under 5, 0.113% of urban populationArgentina: 99.7% of children under 5, 14.5% of urban populationArmenia: 99.3% of children under 5, 8.39% of urban populationAustralia: 100% of children under 5, 0.035% of urban populationAustria: 100% of children under 5, 0.0466% of urban populationBurundi: 83.5% of children under 5, 36.8% of urban populationBelgium: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationBenin: 85.6% of children under 5, 64% of urban populationBurkina Faso: 76.9% of children under 5, 87.9% of urban populationBangladesh: 56% of children under 5, 51.5% of urban populationBulgaria: 100% of children under 5, 0.197% of urban populationBahrain: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationBelarus: 100% of children under 5, 0.004% of urban populationBelize: 95.7% of children under 5, 15.7% of urban populationBolivia: 91.9% of children under 5, 46.6% of urban populationBrazil: 96.4% of children under 5, 14.9% of urban populationBrunei Darussalam: 99.9% of children under 5, 21.6% of urban populationBhutan: 99.9% of children under 5, 44.7% of urban populationBotswana: 87.5% of children under 5, 39.6% of urban populationCentral African Republic: 44.8% of children under 5, 68.9% of urban populationCanada: 100% of children under 5, 1.1% of urban populationSwitzerland: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationChile: 99.4% of children under 5, 7.32% of urban populationCote d'Ivoire: 71.7% of children under 5, 48.3% of urban populationCameroon: 61.9% of children under 5, 32.7% of urban populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 40.1% of children under 5, 78.4% of urban populationCongo, Rep.: 95.9% of children under 5, 75.3% of urban populationColombia: 96.8% of children under 5, 9.7% of urban populationComoros: 87.3% of children under 5, 48.5% of urban populationCabo Verde: 91.4% of children under 5, 46.4% of urban populationCosta Rica: 99.6% of children under 5, 3.55% of urban populationCyprus: 100% of children under 5, 0.272% of urban populationCzechia: 100% of children under 5, 0.0273% of urban populationGermany: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationDenmark: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationDominican Republic: 92.2% of children under 5, 11.2% of urban populationAlgeria: 99.6% of children under 5, 13.2% of urban populationEcuador: 87.2% of children under 5, 57.8% of urban populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 99.4% of children under 5, 3.84% of urban populationSpain: 100% of children under 5, 0.046% of urban populationEstonia: 100% of children under 5, 0.345% of urban populationEthiopia: 2.7% of children under 5, 64.3% of urban populationFinland: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationFiji: 86.6% of children under 5, 9.4% of urban populationFrance: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationGabon: 89.6% of children under 5, 38.8% of urban populationUnited Kingdom: 100% of children under 5, 0.163% of urban populationGeorgia: 98.5% of children under 5, 7.08% of urban populationGhana: 70.6% of children under 5, 33.5% of urban populationGuinea: 62% of children under 5, 44% of urban populationGambia, The: 59% of children under 5, 37.1% of urban populationGuinea-Bissau: 46% of children under 5, 59% of urban populationEquatorial Guinea: 53.5% of children under 5, 64.7% of urban populationGreece: 100% of children under 5, 0.05% of urban populationGuatemala: 96.4% of children under 5, 37.6% of urban populationGuyana: 98.1% of children under 5, 11.3% of urban populationHonduras: 97% of children under 5, 31.5% of urban populationCroatia: 100% of children under 5, 0.527% of urban populationHaiti: 84.8% of children under 5, 51.1% of urban populationHungary: 100% of children under 5, 7.2% of urban populationIndonesia: 77% of children under 5, 19.4% of urban populationIndia: 89.1% of children under 5, 5.41% of urban populationIreland: 100% of children under 5, 8.5% of urban populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 98.6% of children under 5, 44.7% of urban populationIraq: 98.8% of children under 5, 49.3% of urban populationIceland: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationItaly: 100% of children under 5, 0.02% of urban populationJamaica: 98% of children under 5, 0.883% of urban populationJordan: 98% of children under 5, 23.4% of urban populationJapan: 100% of children under 5, 2% of urban populationKazakhstan: 99.7% of children under 5, 0.794% of urban populationKenya: 66.9% of children under 5, 40.5% of urban populationKyrgyz Republic: 98.9% of children under 5, 2.44% of urban populationCambodia: 73.3% of children under 5, 42.3% of urban populationKiribati: 91.6% of children under 5, 5.93% of urban populationLao PDR: 73% of children under 5, 54.8% of urban populationLebanon: 98.9% of children under 5, 4.53% of urban populationLiberia: 66.3% of children under 5, 60.5% of urban populationSt. Lucia: 92% of children under 5, 0.441% of urban populationLesotho: 44.5% of children under 5, 25.6% of urban populationLithuania: 100% of children under 5, 0.509% of urban populationLuxembourg: 100% of children under 5, 0.0173% of urban populationLatvia: 100% of children under 5, 0.593% of urban populationMorocco: 96.9% of children under 5, 10.9% of urban populationMoldova: 99.6% of children under 5, 6.5% of urban populationMadagascar: 73.8% of children under 5, 65.7% of urban populationMaldives: 98.8% of children under 5, 34.8% of urban populationMexico: 97% of children under 5, 17.6% of urban populationMarshall Islands: 83.8% of children under 5, 2.38% of urban populationNorth Macedonia: 99.8% of children under 5, 0.278% of urban populationMali: 86.7% of children under 5, 92.5% of urban populationMalta: 100% of children under 5, 0.0375% of urban populationMyanmar: 81.3% of children under 5, 58.3% of urban populationMontenegro: 99.4% of children under 5, 8.77% of urban populationMongolia: 99.6% of children under 5, 17.9% of urban populationMozambique: 55% of children under 5, 55% of urban populationMauritania: 44.8% of children under 5, 58.6% of urban populationMalawi: 67.2% of children under 5, 38% of urban populationNamibia: 78.1% of children under 5, 41.4% of urban populationNiger: 63.9% of children under 5, 70.4% of urban populationNigeria: 42.6% of children under 5, 48.5% of urban populationNicaragua: 84.7% of children under 5, 5.52% of urban populationNetherlands: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationNorway: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationNepal: 77.2% of children under 5, 40.1% of urban populationNaoero: 95.9% of children under 5, 0.597% of urban populationNew Zealand: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationOman: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationPakistan: 42.2% of children under 5, 56% of urban populationPanama: 96.7% of children under 5, 16.3% of urban populationPeru: 96.4% of children under 5, 45.1% of urban populationPhilippines: 91.8% of children under 5, 35.9% of urban populationPapua New Guinea: 13.4% of children under 5, 22.3% of urban populationPoland: 100% of children under 5, 4.22% of urban populationPortugal: 100% of children under 5, 0.059% of urban populationParaguay: 71% of children under 5, 15.1% of urban populationWest Bank and Gaza: 99.2% of children under 5, 19.5% of urban populationQatar: 100% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationRomania: 100% of children under 5, 2.52% of urban populationRussian Federation: 100% of children under 5, 2.62% of urban populationRwanda: 85.6% of children under 5, 38.3% of urban populationSaudi Arabia: 99.2% of children under 5, 0.55% of urban populationSudan: 67.3% of children under 5, 73.7% of urban populationSenegal: 78.7% of children under 5, 46.4% of urban populationSingapore: 99.9% of children under 5, 0% of urban populationSolomon Islands: 88% of children under 5, 1.95% of urban populationSierra Leone: 90.4% of children under 5, 49.3% of urban populationEl Salvador: 91.2% of children under 5, 16.5% of urban populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 5.9% of children under 5, 48.7% of urban populationSerbia: 99.9% of children under 5, 1.42% of urban populationSao Tome and Principe: 98.6% of children under 5, 82.4% of urban populationSuriname: 98.3% of children under 5, 15.8% of urban populationSlovak Republic: 100% of children under 5, 0.066% of urban populationSlovenia: 100% of children under 5, 0.527% of urban populationSweden: 100% of children under 5, 0.336% of urban populationEswatini: 53.5% of children under 5, 17% of urban populationTurks and Caicos Islands: 99.2% of children under 5, 0.631% of urban populationChad: 25.7% of children under 5, 82% of urban populationTogo: 82.9% of children under 5, 38.5% of urban populationThailand: 99.8% of children under 5, 2% of urban populationTajikistan: 95.8% of children under 5, 0.05% of urban populationTurkmenistan: 99.9% of children under 5, 8.38% of urban populationTimor-Leste: 60.4% of children under 5, 33.9% of urban populationTonga: 97.7% of children under 5, 0.308% of urban populationTrinidad and Tobago: 96.5% of children under 5, 8.63% of urban populationTunisia: 99.9% of children under 5, 7.64% of urban populationTurkiye: 98.4% of children under 5, 14.1% of urban populationTuvalu: 87.2% of children under 5, 50.9% of urban populationTanzania: 26.4% of children under 5, 70.1% of urban populationUganda: 32.2% of children under 5, 52.7% of urban populationUkraine: 99.8% of children under 5, 1.1% of urban populationUruguay: 99.8% of children under 5, 1.3% of urban populationUnited States: 100% of children under 5, 0.0932% of urban populationViet Nam: 96.1% of children under 5, 32.5% of urban populationVanuatu: 43.4% of children under 5, 3.06% of urban populationSamoa: 66.9% of children under 5, 34.6% of urban populationSouth Africa: 88.6% of children under 5, 24.2% of urban populationZambia: 14% of children under 5, 48.3% of urban populationZimbabwe: 48.7% of children under 5, 54.9% of urban populationCOGETHMLINZLOMNPNGQATSOMSTPTCDVUT

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.6385.1e-20163
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.8223.8e-41163
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2710.000163
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.4281.3e-8163

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 163 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.367 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.309 (without PNG) to -0.244 (without AGO). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: PNG (-0.038).

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific24-0.12
Europe & Central Asia46-0.17
Latin America & Caribbean25-0.06
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan17-0.59
Sub-Saharan Africa44-0.02

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third55-0.18
Middle third54-0.40
Richest third54-0.62

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians102-0.25
Muslims41-0.34

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23-0.16
Never a European colony17-0.59
Spain19-0.44
United Kingdom49-0.33

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.275 after dropping 13 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of children under 5
% of urban population		Years
United States USA100%0.0932%2022
Sweden SWE100%0.336%2022
Slovenia SVN100%0.527%2022
Slovak Republic SVK100%0.066%2020, 2022
Russian Federation RUS100%2.62%2022
Romania ROU100%2.52%2020, 2022
Qatar QAT100%0%2020, 2022
Portugal PRT100%0.059%2020, 2022
Poland POL100%4.22%2017, 2022
Oman OMN100%0%2018, 2022
New Zealand NZL100%0%2022
Norway NOR100%0%2022
Netherlands NLD100%0%2022
Malta MLT100%0.0375%2022
Latvia LVA100%0.593%2022

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth registration

Completeness of birth registration (%)

UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

A measure of how far the state reaches: whether it knows a child exists. Based on surveys and sparse. It is near 100 across the rich world, so all the variation is at the other end.

Slum share of urban population

Population living in slums (% of urban population)

UN-Habitat · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2022. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth registration and Slum share of urban population

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth registration changes Slum share of urban population, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth registration or Slum share of urban population