placestats

Birth registration vs. HIV prevalence

Holds up after adjusting for income

Across 136 countries, Birth registration and HIV prevalence rise and fall together at r = -0.31 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). It holds up almost unchanged when only countries with similar income (GDP per person) are compared (r = -0.22, q = 0.037, allowing for the many pairs tested). Caution: correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed.

Comparing countries across the middle half of hiv prevalence, 0.1% to 1% of adults aged 15-49, birth registration is worse by 1.87% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 0.986% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.307p = 0.000 · 136 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.217p = 0.012 · likely range [-0.37, -0.05]
p, allowing for regions0.004standard error 0.047 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.037across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth registration · % of children under 5link with income +0.87 · proxy
HIV prevalence · % of adults aged 15-49link with income -0.40 · moderate

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth registration · % of children under 5 →HIV prevalence · % of adults aged 15-49 →2.7%100%0.1%23.4%Afghanistan: 42.3% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Angola: 25% of children under 5, 1.6% of adults aged 15-49Albania: 98.4% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49United Arab Emirates: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Argentina: 99.7% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Armenia: 99.3% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Australia: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Burundi: 83.5% of children under 5, 0.8% of adults aged 15-49Belgium: 100% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Benin: 85.6% of children under 5, 0.7% of adults aged 15-49Burkina Faso: 76.9% of children under 5, 0.5% of adults aged 15-49Bangladesh: 56% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Bulgaria: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Bahrain: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Belize: 95.7% of children under 5, 1.2% of adults aged 15-49Bolivia: 91.9% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Brazil: 96.4% of children under 5, 0.7% of adults aged 15-49Barbados: 98.7% of children under 5, 1% of adults aged 15-49Bhutan: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Botswana: 87.5% of children under 5, 15.7% of adults aged 15-49Central African Republic: 44.8% of children under 5, 2.4% of adults aged 15-49Canada: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Switzerland: 100% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Chile: 99.4% of children under 5, 0.7% of adults aged 15-49Cote d'Ivoire: 71.7% of children under 5, 1.7% of adults aged 15-49Cameroon: 61.9% of children under 5, 2.5% of adults aged 15-49Congo, Dem. Rep.: 40.1% of children under 5, 0.7% of adults aged 15-49Congo, Rep.: 95.9% of children under 5, 3.2% of adults aged 15-49Colombia: 96.8% of children under 5, 0.6% of adults aged 15-49Comoros: 87.3% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Cabo Verde: 91.4% of children under 5, 0.9% of adults aged 15-49Costa Rica: 99.6% of children under 5, 0.6% of adults aged 15-49Germany: 100% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Denmark: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Dominican Republic: 92.2% of children under 5, 1% of adults aged 15-49Algeria: 99.6% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Ecuador: 87.2% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Egypt, Arab Rep.: 99.4% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Spain: 100% of children under 5, 0.3% of adults aged 15-49Estonia: 100% of children under 5, 0.7% of adults aged 15-49Ethiopia: 2.7% of children under 5, 0.7% of adults aged 15-49Fiji: 86.6% of children under 5, 1% of adults aged 15-49France: 100% of children under 5, 0.3% of adults aged 15-49Gabon: 89.6% of children under 5, 2.8% of adults aged 15-49United Kingdom: 100% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Georgia: 98.5% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Ghana: 70.6% of children under 5, 1.5% of adults aged 15-49Guinea: 62% of children under 5, 1.3% of adults aged 15-49Gambia, The: 59% of children under 5, 1.3% of adults aged 15-49Guinea-Bissau: 46% of children under 5, 2.2% of adults aged 15-49Greece: 100% of children under 5, 0.3% of adults aged 15-49Guatemala: 96.4% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Guyana: 98.1% of children under 5, 1.6% of adults aged 15-49Honduras: 97% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Croatia: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Haiti: 84.8% of children under 5, 1.6% of adults aged 15-49Indonesia: 77% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49India: 89.1% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Ireland: 100% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Iraq: 98.8% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Iceland: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Italy: 100% of children under 5, 0.3% of adults aged 15-49Jamaica: 98% of children under 5, 1.1% of adults aged 15-49Jordan: 98% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Kazakhstan: 99.7% of children under 5, 0.3% of adults aged 15-49Kenya: 66.9% of children under 5, 3% of adults aged 15-49Kyrgyz Republic: 98.9% of children under 5, 0.3% of adults aged 15-49Cambodia: 73.3% of children under 5, 0.5% of adults aged 15-49Lao PDR: 73% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Lebanon: 98.9% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Liberia: 66.3% of children under 5, 0.9% of adults aged 15-49St. Lucia: 92% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Lesotho: 44.5% of children under 5, 17.1% of adults aged 15-49Lithuania: 100% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Luxembourg: 100% of children under 5, 0.3% of adults aged 15-49Latvia: 100% of children under 5, 0.5% of adults aged 15-49Morocco: 96.9% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Moldova: 99.6% of children under 5, 0.9% of adults aged 15-49Madagascar: 73.8% of children under 5, 0.5% of adults aged 15-49Maldives: 98.8% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Mexico: 97% of children under 5, 0.5% of adults aged 15-49North Macedonia: 99.8% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Mali: 86.7% of children under 5, 0.8% of adults aged 15-49Malta: 100% of children under 5, 0.3% of adults aged 15-49Myanmar: 81.3% of children under 5, 0.9% of adults aged 15-49Montenegro: 99.4% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Mongolia: 99.6% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Mozambique: 55% of children under 5, 11.5% of adults aged 15-49Mauritania: 44.8% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Malawi: 67.2% of children under 5, 6.2% of adults aged 15-49Namibia: 78.1% of children under 5, 9% of adults aged 15-49Niger: 63.9% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Nigeria: 42.6% of children under 5, 1.2% of adults aged 15-49Netherlands: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Norway: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Nepal: 77.2% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49New Zealand: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Oman: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Pakistan: 42.2% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Panama: 96.7% of children under 5, 1.1% of adults aged 15-49Peru: 96.4% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Philippines: 91.8% of children under 5, 0.3% of adults aged 15-49Papua New Guinea: 13.4% of children under 5, 1.5% of adults aged 15-49Portugal: 100% of children under 5, 0.5% of adults aged 15-49Paraguay: 71% of children under 5, 0.5% of adults aged 15-49Qatar: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Romania: 100% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Rwanda: 85.6% of children under 5, 2% of adults aged 15-49Saudi Arabia: 99.2% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Sudan: 67.3% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Senegal: 78.7% of children under 5, 0.3% of adults aged 15-49Singapore: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Solomon Islands: 88% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Sierra Leone: 90.4% of children under 5, 1.4% of adults aged 15-49El Salvador: 91.2% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Somalia, Fed. Rep.: 5.9% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Serbia: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Suriname: 98.3% of children under 5, 1.6% of adults aged 15-49Slovak Republic: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Slovenia: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Sweden: 100% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Eswatini: 53.5% of children under 5, 23.4% of adults aged 15-49Chad: 25.7% of children under 5, 0.9% of adults aged 15-49Togo: 82.9% of children under 5, 1.6% of adults aged 15-49Thailand: 99.8% of children under 5, 1% of adults aged 15-49Tajikistan: 95.8% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Timor-Leste: 60.4% of children under 5, 0.2% of adults aged 15-49Tunisia: 99.9% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49Tuvalu: 87.2% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Tanzania: 26.4% of children under 5, 3.5% of adults aged 15-49Uganda: 32.2% of children under 5, 4.9% of adults aged 15-49Viet Nam: 96.1% of children under 5, 0.4% of adults aged 15-49Vanuatu: 43.4% of children under 5, 0.1% of adults aged 15-49South Africa: 88.6% of children under 5, 17.2% of adults aged 15-49Zambia: 14% of children under 5, 9.4% of adults aged 15-49Zimbabwe: 48.7% of children under 5, 9.8% of adults aged 15-49BWAETHLSOPNGSOMSVKSVNSWESWZZAFZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.3070.000136
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.5361.8e-11136
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2170.012136
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3611.7e-5136

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 136 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.090 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.247 (without ZAF) to -0.172 (without SWZ). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: SWZ (+0.044).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • correlation moves sharply once outliers are trimmed
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific17-0.39
Europe & Central Asia34+0.24
Latin America & Caribbean22+0.06
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan15-0.39
Sub-Saharan Africa42-0.13

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third46-0.24
Middle third45-0.30
Richest third45-0.60

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians87-0.25
Muslims36-0.15

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France23-0.06
Never a European colony13-0.12
Spain16-0.23
United Kingdom42-0.21

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.041 after dropping 21 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of children under 5
% of adults aged 15-49		Years
Sweden SWE100%0.1%2022
Slovenia SVN100%0.1%2022, 2024
Slovak Republic SVK100%0.1%2020, 2024
Romania ROU100%0.2%2020, 2024
Qatar QAT100%0.1%2020, 2024
Portugal PRT100%0.5%2020, 2024
Oman OMN100%0.1%2018, 2024
New Zealand NZL100%0.1%2022, 2024
Norway NOR100%0.1%2022, 2024
Netherlands NLD100%0.1%2022, 2023
Malta MLT100%0.3%2022, 2024
Latvia LVA100%0.5%2022, 2024
Luxembourg LUX100%0.3%2022, 2024
Lithuania LTU100%0.2%2020, 2024
Italy ITA100%0.3%2022, 2024

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth registration

Completeness of birth registration (%)

UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

A measure of how far the state reaches: whether it knows a child exists. Based on surveys and sparse. It is near 100 across the rich world, so all the variation is at the other end.

HIV prevalence

Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49)

UNAIDS · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Estimates from a statistical model. Very lopsided: a few southern African countries sit about ten times higher than everyone else. So a link with this is largely a link with them, and the "leave one out" check on each pair page shows by how much.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2024. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth registration and HIV prevalence

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth registration changes HIV prevalence, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth registration or HIV prevalence