placestats

Birth registration vs. Food insecurity

Fades after adjusting for income

Across 137 countries, Birth registration and Food insecurity rise and fall together at r = -0.69 (on a scale from −1 to +1, where 0 means no link). Comparing only countries with similar income (GDP per person) shrinks it to -0.28, which could easily be chance (q = 0.14, allowing for the many pairs tested, and allowing for countries in the same region being alike). So the first figure mostly shows richer countries differing from poorer ones, not a link between these two things. Caution: direction is not consistent across regions.

Comparing countries across the middle half of food insecurity, 9.5% to 48.8% of population, birth registration is worse by 25.9% of children under 5 at the top of that range than the bottom. Comparing only countries with similar national income, the gap is 13.6% of children under 5.

Link before adjusting (r)-0.686p = 2.1e-20 · 137 countries
After adjusting for national income-0.276p = 0.001 · likely range [-0.42, -0.11]
p, allowing for regions0.019standard error 0.087 · 7 regions
Check for luck (q)0.144across 12,497 pairs

How to read these.r runs from −1 (one goes up as the other goes down) to +1 (they rise together), and 0 means no link. Adjusting for national income means comparing countries with the same GDP per person, so differences in wealth can’t explain the link. Income is used in percentage terms, since an extra $1,000 means more to a poor country than to a rich one. p is how likely a link this strong would be if there were really none. Below 0.05 means it is unlikely to be chance. Very small values are written in short form: 1.1e-32 means a decimal point followed by 31 zeros and then 11, so very close to zero. The likely range is where the true figure probably lies, and a range that crosses zero means the link could easily be chance. Countries in the same region tend to resemble each other, so the third figure allows for that, which gives a fairer p. The standard error is the typical size of the error in r. Finally, testing this many pairs means some will look strong by luck alone. A q below 0.05 means this link is unlikely to be one of those.

Birth registration · % of children under 5link with income +0.87 · proxy
Food insecurity · % of populationlink with income -0.83 · proxy

Both of these rise and fall closely with national income, so a strong link between them before adjusting was close to certain. Read the adjusted figure, not the first one.

“Link with income” is how closely each measure tracks GDP per person across countries, from −1 to +1.

Every country as a dot

Birth registration · % of children under 5 →Food insecurity · % of population →2.7%100%1.1%89.8%Afghanistan: 42.3% of children under 5, 80.8% of populationAngola: 25% of children under 5, 78.5% of populationAlbania: 98.4% of children under 5, 33% of populationUnited Arab Emirates: 100% of children under 5, 3.6% of populationArgentina: 99.7% of children under 5, 33.8% of populationArmenia: 99.3% of children under 5, 7.8% of populationAustralia: 100% of children under 5, 13.8% of populationAustria: 100% of children under 5, 4.7% of populationBurundi: 83.5% of children under 5, 70.8% of populationBelgium: 100% of children under 5, 8.1% of populationBenin: 85.6% of children under 5, 65.6% of populationBurkina Faso: 76.9% of children under 5, 41.4% of populationBulgaria: 100% of children under 5, 11.6% of populationBelarus: 100% of children under 5, 1.1% of populationBelize: 95.7% of children under 5, 45.5% of populationBrazil: 96.4% of children under 5, 13.5% of populationBarbados: 98.7% of children under 5, 31.1% of populationBotswana: 87.5% of children under 5, 53.9% of populationCentral African Republic: 44.8% of children under 5, 88.1% of populationCanada: 100% of children under 5, 10.2% of populationSwitzerland: 100% of children under 5, 2% of populationChile: 99.4% of children under 5, 19.2% of populationCote d'Ivoire: 71.7% of children under 5, 38.4% of populationCameroon: 61.9% of children under 5, 61.2% of populationCongo, Dem. Rep.: 40.1% of children under 5, 81.5% of populationColombia: 96.8% of children under 5, 27.8% of populationComoros: 87.3% of children under 5, 79.7% of populationCabo Verde: 91.4% of children under 5, 32.1% of populationCosta Rica: 99.6% of children under 5, 15.4% of populationCyprus: 100% of children under 5, 1.4% of populationCzechia: 100% of children under 5, 10% of populationGermany: 100% of children under 5, 4.1% of populationDenmark: 100% of children under 5, 6.9% of populationDominican Republic: 92.2% of children under 5, 43.8% of populationAlgeria: 99.6% of children under 5, 17.6% of populationEcuador: 87.2% of children under 5, 33.3% of populationEgypt, Arab Rep.: 99.4% of children under 5, 30.8% of populationSpain: 100% of children under 5, 6.5% of populationEstonia: 100% of children under 5, 10.8% of populationEthiopia: 2.7% of children under 5, 61.4% of populationFinland: 100% of children under 5, 13.4% of populationFiji: 86.6% of children under 5, 29.2% of populationFrance: 100% of children under 5, 8.4% of populationUnited Kingdom: 100% of children under 5, 6.9% of populationGeorgia: 98.5% of children under 5, 26.6% of populationGhana: 70.6% of children under 5, 44.5% of populationGambia, The: 59% of children under 5, 54.8% of populationGuinea-Bissau: 46% of children under 5, 62.5% of populationGreece: 100% of children under 5, 6.6% of populationGuatemala: 96.4% of children under 5, 48.8% of populationGuyana: 98.1% of children under 5, 25.5% of populationHonduras: 97% of children under 5, 41.3% of populationCroatia: 100% of children under 5, 6% of populationHaiti: 84.8% of children under 5, 83.2% of populationHungary: 100% of children under 5, 15.6% of populationIndonesia: 77% of children under 5, 4.5% of populationIreland: 100% of children under 5, 4.8% of populationIran, Islamic Rep.: 98.6% of children under 5, 38.8% of populationIceland: 100% of children under 5, 7.8% of populationIsrael: 100% of children under 5, 9.2% of populationItaly: 100% of children under 5, 1.7% of populationJamaica: 98% of children under 5, 56.4% of populationJapan: 100% of children under 5, 5.8% of populationKazakhstan: 99.7% of children under 5, 2% of populationKenya: 66.9% of children under 5, 73.9% of populationKyrgyz Republic: 98.9% of children under 5, 7% of populationCambodia: 73.3% of children under 5, 40% of populationKiribati: 91.6% of children under 5, 42.9% of populationLao PDR: 73% of children under 5, 35.6% of populationLebanon: 98.9% of children under 5, 42.4% of populationLiberia: 66.3% of children under 5, 80.8% of populationSt. Lucia: 92% of children under 5, 22.2% of populationLesotho: 44.5% of children under 5, 59.9% of populationLithuania: 100% of children under 5, 6.5% of populationLuxembourg: 100% of children under 5, 2.6% of populationLatvia: 100% of children under 5, 11.2% of populationMoldova: 99.6% of children under 5, 25.1% of populationMadagascar: 73.8% of children under 5, 72.6% of populationMaldives: 98.8% of children under 5, 13.4% of populationMexico: 97% of children under 5, 19.3% of populationNorth Macedonia: 99.8% of children under 5, 15.2% of populationMali: 86.7% of children under 5, 20.6% of populationMalta: 100% of children under 5, 9.2% of populationMyanmar: 81.3% of children under 5, 32.7% of populationMontenegro: 99.4% of children under 5, 10.4% of populationMongolia: 99.6% of children under 5, 4.8% of populationMauritania: 44.8% of children under 5, 66.3% of populationMalawi: 67.2% of children under 5, 81.7% of populationNamibia: 78.1% of children under 5, 55.9% of populationNiger: 63.9% of children under 5, 50.9% of populationNigeria: 42.6% of children under 5, 74.8% of populationNetherlands: 100% of children under 5, 7.5% of populationNorway: 100% of children under 5, 7.8% of populationNepal: 77.2% of children under 5, 36.6% of populationNaoero: 95.9% of children under 5, 29.9% of populationNew Zealand: 100% of children under 5, 17.3% of populationPakistan: 42.2% of children under 5, 42.1% of populationPeru: 96.4% of children under 5, 41% of populationPhilippines: 91.8% of children under 5, 32.9% of populationPapua New Guinea: 13.4% of children under 5, 57.3% of populationPoland: 100% of children under 5, 3.4% of populationPortugal: 100% of children under 5, 11.9% of populationParaguay: 71% of children under 5, 26.2% of populationWest Bank and Gaza: 99.2% of children under 5, 27% of populationRomania: 100% of children under 5, 18.6% of populationRussian Federation: 100% of children under 5, 2.8% of populationSenegal: 78.7% of children under 5, 29.1% of populationSingapore: 99.9% of children under 5, 9.5% of populationSierra Leone: 90.4% of children under 5, 89.8% of populationEl Salvador: 91.2% of children under 5, 45.5% of populationSomalia, Fed. Rep.: 5.9% of children under 5, 79.5% of populationSerbia: 99.9% of children under 5, 9.5% of populationSao Tome and Principe: 98.6% of children under 5, 54.6% of populationSuriname: 98.3% of children under 5, 35.8% of populationSlovak Republic: 100% of children under 5, 7.5% of populationSlovenia: 100% of children under 5, 8.2% of populationSweden: 100% of children under 5, 6.9% of populationEswatini: 53.5% of children under 5, 59% of populationChad: 25.7% of children under 5, 66.3% of populationTogo: 82.9% of children under 5, 58.5% of populationThailand: 99.8% of children under 5, 5.4% of populationTajikistan: 95.8% of children under 5, 25.1% of populationTimor-Leste: 60.4% of children under 5, 53.7% of populationTonga: 97.7% of children under 5, 14.8% of populationTrinidad and Tobago: 96.5% of children under 5, 27.6% of populationTunisia: 99.9% of children under 5, 25.4% of populationTanzania: 26.4% of children under 5, 58% of populationUganda: 32.2% of children under 5, 54.6% of populationUkraine: 99.8% of children under 5, 32.5% of populationUruguay: 99.8% of children under 5, 16.2% of populationUnited States: 100% of children under 5, 10.3% of populationViet Nam: 96.1% of children under 5, 10.7% of populationVanuatu: 43.4% of children under 5, 23.3% of populationSamoa: 66.9% of children under 5, 18.6% of populationSouth Africa: 88.6% of children under 5, 20.7% of populationZambia: 14% of children under 5, 45.3% of populationZimbabwe: 48.7% of children under 5, 68.8% of populationAGOBLRCOMCYPETHHTIITASLESOMVUTZMB

best-fit line line after adjusting

Four ways to measure the link

MethodrpCountries
Standard (Pearson), not adjusted-0.6862.1e-20137
By rank (Spearman), not adjusted-0.8358.0e-37137
Standard (Pearson), adjusted for national income-0.2760.001137
By rank (Spearman), adjusted for national income-0.3805.1e-6137

The rank version uses only each country’s place in line, from lowest to highest, so a few extreme countries count for less. The adjusted and unadjusted versions use the same 137 countries: those that report both measures and GDP per person. So the gap between them comes from the adjustment, not from a change in which countries are counted. Drop in the size of r after adjusting: +0.410 (a minus sign means it grew).

How solid is it?

Leaving out one country at a time, r ranges from -0.313 (without SLE) to -0.227 (without AGO). The bar above shows that range on a scale from −1 to +1, with the solid line at the full result. The single country that moves r most: AGO (+0.049).

Fragile: this link may not hold up.
  • direction is not consistent across regions

Within each region

Countries are not separate, unrelated cases, and neighbors share a lot. A link that holds inside each region is far more believable than one that shows up only when comparing regions.

nr
East Asia & Pacific20-0.38
Europe & Central Asia43-0.21
Latin America & Caribbean22+0.06
Sub-Saharan Africa37-0.22

By income third

If the link shows up only in the richest third of countries, it is a feature of rich countries, not a general pattern.

nr
Poorest third46-0.20
Middle third45-0.40
Richest third46-0.64

By largest religious group

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
Christians94-0.15
Muslims28-0.40

By last european coloniser

Countries grouped by a label they share, such as main religion, rather than by a number. Groups of fewer than twelve countries are not shown. These groups differ in income, region and history all at once. So a gap between them is a place to start asking questions, not an answer.

nr
France20-0.24
Never a European colony13-0.42
Spain14+0.07
United Kingdom40-0.14

Without outliers (countries far outside the middle half of countries on either measure, by more than one and a half times the width of that middle half): r = -0.275 after dropping 11 countries.

Two series, one country

Both measures over the years for one country you pick. The two charts are stacked so they share only the years along the bottom.

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Over time, within countries

Everything above compares countries with each other at one moment. This section compares each country only with itself over 0years. So a link here can’t come from anything about a country that stays the same, such as its history, geography, institutions or culture.

Not enough history inside each country to look at this over time. That needs countries measured for several years in a row, and at least one of these measures is measured too rarely.

The data


% of children under 5
% of population		Years
United States USA100%10.3%2022, 2023
Sweden SWE100%6.9%2022, 2023
Slovenia SVN100%8.2%2022, 2023
Slovak Republic SVK100%7.5%2020, 2023
Russian Federation RUS100%2.8%2022, 2023
Romania ROU100%18.6%2020, 2023
Portugal PRT100%11.9%2020, 2023
Poland POL100%3.4%2017, 2023
New Zealand NZL100%17.3%2022, 2023
Norway NOR100%7.8%2022, 2023
Netherlands NLD100%7.5%2022, 2023
Malta MLT100%9.2%2022, 2023
Latvia LVA100%11.2%2022, 2023
Luxembourg LUX100%2.6%2022, 2023
Lithuania LTU100%6.5%2020, 2023

World Bank, World Development Indicators
World Bank, World Development Indicators

Sources

Birth registration

Completeness of birth registration (%)

UNICEF · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

A measure of how far the state reaches: whether it knows a child exists. Based on surveys and sparse. It is near 100 across the rich world, so all the variation is at the other end.

Food insecurity

Prevalence of moderate or severe food insecurity in the population (%)

Food and Agriculture Organization, Food Insecurity Experience Scale · CC BY 4.0 · updated quarterly

Asked of people, in a survey about running out of food, and reported as a three-year average from 2015. It is the one measure of hunger here that comes from what people say they went through, rather than from a model.

How this was computed

Data used: most recent value in 2010-2025; values come from 2010–2023. To adjust for income, each measure is first predicted from GDP per person (in percentage terms, on a log scale) with a straight-line fit. Only what is left over is then compared. This is called a partial correlation. The line is drawn the standard way (ordinary least squares), which picks the line that comes closest to all the countries at once. The error margins allow for countries in the same region resembling each other, using 7 World Bank regions. The q-value corrects for testing all 12,497 pairs at once, using the Benjamini–Hochberg method. Underlying data last updated DYB 2024. How the country data works · explore Birth registration and Food insecurity

This page shows that two measures go together. It does not show that Birth registration changes Food insecurity, or the reverse. These figures also describe countries, not individual people. See the ecological fallacy.

More links with Birth registration or Food insecurity